OR - Kyron Horman, 7 yo Second grader, Portland, 4 June 2010 - Part #13

[RubyRed]

I have a question about something on the scanner thread, where can I ask it?

On the scanner thread.

 

[Wendy101]

Four BIG things that have stuck in my craw:

1) Kyron did not leave school on his own without any reason, or convincing or luring. Finally, today it's confirmed for us that LE knows this.

2) This was a hectic and abnormal school day of happy hustle-bustle visitors going in and out of this little school for special events. It was widely known in the school community, and posted on the school external billboard at the end of the school year.
This is a generally acceptable fact of the day of Kyron’s disappearance.

The third item that sticks in my craw, that has not yet been confirmed for us, but I really think we can make a very fair assumption based on inductive reasoning. And that is:

3) There was clear breach in communications between Kyron’s caretakers.

And the 4th thing that sticks in my craw is more the broad brush of the perfect storm created by points 1, 2, and 3. I believe “perfect storm coincidences” are rare. But…

4) Points 1, 2 and 3 create “the perfect storm”.


The Breach.

How is it that Kyron's teacher(s) were not "missing" Kyron? They knew he was at school that morning at the science fair.

A bit later, during formal class attendance, he was not there. Kyron's teacher(s) marked him absent. AND, the teacher(s) was clearly not concerned about the fact that Kyron was not there.

A 7 year old, and they weren't concerned. Clearly, they had a reason not to be concerned that Kyron had been there earlier, but now was not there. Using inductive reasoning (thanks Sherlock) Kyron's absence made sense to them. It was expected/anticipated.

LE knows why the teacher(s) were not concerned. They knew the evening Kyron disappeared.

Terri stood at the bus stop expecting Kyron to get off the bus. Kyron's absence from school was a shock to her. Why? Because Terri brought Kyron to school and left him there, watched him walk down the hall to his class and his teacher(s) who would take care of him that day as usual. Terri expected Kyron would have a normal (well, more fun than normal) day at school.

Kyron's teacher(s) saw Kyron early on but did not expect him to be in class at attendance time. No alarms went off for the teacher(s) when 7 year old Kyron was not there. Terri left school certain Kyron's teacher(s) would take care of him as they had every day of the school year.

What caused such different expectations about where Kyron was supposed to be all day – completely different expectations between Terri and the Teacher(s)? Something happened to cause that breach of communication between those responsible for Kyron.

This breach is an important investigation focal point, because therein lies the breakdown in Kyron's security system. This breakdown created a huge gap in time for alerting about Kyron's disappearance. This breakdown created opportunity. This breakdown created opportunity on an opportune day. It was a key event in the perfect storm set-up for the vanishing of Kryon.

I am confident that LE knows that the communication breach is an important question to answer for Kyron’s investigation and I suspect they have their answer now.

(We can note, 10 days into the investigation, that the school’s response has been to keep the teacher in the classroom. Not even temporarily with a vacation or paid leave. No disciplinary action evident there. No apparent need to CYA on this point for the school.)

The Perfect Storm.

What an incredible coincidence that the EXACT child whose caretakers had a breach/misunderstanding - in the parent-teacher expectation/communication - that EXACT busy morning is the EXACT child that was somehow lured away.
Do you believe in coincidences such as this? Should we do the math? Statistically speaking, what are the odds where the initial event of a breach of communications with regard to ONE child in a contained and secured system of 224 children leads to the vanishing event of that EXACT ONE child on this EXACT special school event calendar day of approx. 185 school days?

That’s a probability problem (lol) and I can’t remember exactly how to calculate it. Never-the-less, it’s rather slim odds.



Am I over-thinking this? I appreciate just being able to write down this one thing that sticks in my craw after all this time.


At 10 days, and the declaration of a criminal investigation, I am left asking myself, very logically: Do I believe in coincidences? And then: What are the odds?

Today my conclusion is: Kyron was specifically the target. And, IMO, this was a planned Kyron abduction. And LE’s just gotta know this.


This is all just me thinking-out-loud, noodling, and somewhere in there is my humble opinion with regard to parent-teacher communication protocol for 7 year olds and the value of statistical reasoning when assessing coincidences. I reserve, as always, the right to change my opinion tomorrow.

Just quoting this because I like it!! :dance:

 

[Yaelle]

If the teacher KNEW Kyron was there in the morning and was unconcerned about why he left, it could only have been because someone informed her why Kyron was not there. If this were the case, they'd have their POI. Since we have not heard that someone falsely told the teacher why Kyron was not at school, I don't believe your #3 is anything more than the teacher absentmindedly did not note Kyron's presence in the early confusing morning hour. She never thought about it.

 

[raeann]

raeann please edit your post as i did mine, thanks.

Already done... all gone as it is hopefully no longer needed.....

 

[audreyfan]

What an amazing synopsis...
I am wondering one thing: I intend no disrespect to the teacher, or to anyone working at the school, but is it also possible that the teacher (or someone else) dropped the ball? In other words, that there was not quite the logical process you describe, but perhaps a lapse, a mistake, a mistake like I make at work everyday (luckily I deal with papers and not children...)

This is my second post on WS!

​

 

[Emma Peel]

No, you're not over-thinking it, in fact...

You seem to be assuming the reason the teacher's alarm bells didn't go off was a good one(?)

Very nice assessment, Emma

Hi BeanE.

Yes. I'm assuming above that this is a teacher in a school with a 20 kid per teacher ratio and she knows her students. I'm assuming she knew Kyron was there in the AM with his project and his mother, as that's what we've been told. I'm assuming she then marked him absent without alarm for a good reason.

I am willing to say it's possible she didn't have good reason. It's possible her reasoning was faulty or based on faulty information from someone such as a paraprofessional, teacher's aide, other volunteer. What's NOT possible is that she didn't notice Kyron was NOT there, after she noticed he WAS there.

Either way, my thought would be - it's still a perfect storm, and Kyron was the target.

Oh, and I should have added that if Kyron was the target, (and LE knows this), then, it would follow that this might be considered an isolated incident.

 

[ElizaAvalon]

The Perfect Storm.

What an incredible coincidence that the EXACT child whose caretakers had a breach/misunderstanding - in the parent-teacher expectation/communication - that EXACT busy morning is the EXACT child that was somehow lured away.
Do you believe in coincidences such as this? Should we do the math? Statistically speaking, what are the odds where the initial event of a breach of communications with regard to ONE child in a contained and secured system of 224 children leads to the vanishing event of that EXACT ONE child on this EXACT special school event calendar day of approx. 185 school days?

That’s a probability problem (lol) and I can’t remember exactly how to calculate it. Never-the-less, it’s rather slim odds.

Am I over-thinking this? I appreciate just being able to write down this one thing that sticks in my craw after all this time.

At 10 days, and the declaration of a criminal investigation, I am left asking myself, very logically: Do I believe in coincidences? And then: What are the odds?

Today my conclusion is: Kyron was specifically the target. And, IMO, this was a planned Kyron abduction. And LE’s just gotta know this.

:bow:

Perfect. You nailed it.

 

[Jersey*Girl]

Emma, I agree with you 100%!

 

[Wendy101]

Good post EMMA. I guess the next logical question would be who delivered the information to the teachers that made them not concerned that Kyron was absent and what that information was?

BBM: No comment! Lips are sealed waiting for a more appropriate time.

Here is a hint though: Who has the authority over the school personnel regarding the children that attend public school?

 

[revampz]

Belimom you took the words right out of my mouth with your thoughts on Somers case.....

Same with the above re coincidences.......

I got really involved with somer right from the beginning and was convinced that it was no coincidence that she went missing on the day that mum had a "friend" stay from lunch to watch out for the kids......

even now that they have a stranger to her in custody, I still have the feeling that they've got the wrong guy (and yes I certainly know I am wrong).......

but something felt so wrong.....I am not saying it was him either, it was just the whole coincidence thing.....I too thought it was more closer to home...




So even though I think a few things are suss here, I have learnt, especially from this site, that truth can be stranger than fiction...


I am starting to think that we have given the police too much credit and they really havent had much of a clue since the beginning and now because he is not found are looking into a criminal investigation...


Another theory I came up with while in the shower this morning......what if the "appointment" was some form of mind games with the stepmum and Kyron...

Maybe he was going to see a shrink for some problem she told him she had...
Or a bed wetting doctor..
Or a doctor to see why he couldnt do his project and she had to help him...

Why I say this is because we have had terrible trouble toilet training our now 5 year old with his no 2's (hope you use that metaphor as well)........in frustation I told him I was going to take him to the "bum doctor" to check out if there was something wrong with his bum.......he was so scared so I told him we wouldnt but boy it worked......

So I wonder if her supposedly saying across the room to the teacher re his appointment (and in the latest oregonlive.com comments it is mentioned again as a rumor amongst the pps staff) it was a psychological ploy aimed directly at Kyron...

he may have got scared and thought he would hide.........

I do not know but its not looking good...poor little fella...I really really hope he is ok....

 

[mamaeb]

If the teacher KNEW Kyron was there in the morning and was unconcerned about why he left, it could only have been because someone informed her why Kyron was not there. If this were the case, they'd have their POI. Since we have not heard that someone falsely told the teacher why Kyron was not at school, I don't believe your #3 is anything more than the teacher absentmindedly did not note Kyron's presence in the early confusing morning hour. She never thought about it.

just my opinion, but we do not know if they have a POI, or someone they do not believe. We also don't know if the teachers told them if someone had excused him or not. They could have info on this that they are not sharing.

 

[Skully]

Please don't shoot me, I am the one that keeps saying it was the Perfect Storm, but really, is it possible that there was mis-communication between the two woman? It was a busy day, I can't believe with all the running around, people in halls, extra people coming and going, asking teaches questions, where to put things, all that and more, that just maybe, SM said something about an appointment and someone else was half listening or someone else was hard of hearing, and it just got mis communicated? I think you have a great study here and great theory, but people make mistakes....

 

[mommy_xox]

Although I'd love to think Kyron wandered away from school looking for a Red Eyed Tree Frog, I don't think that's what happened. While putting together his Science project and doing research..He must have learned Red Eyed Tree Frogs are found in South America/South Mexico and not near where he lives. He seems like a very smart little boy who would have understood this.


I'm also sad to learn it's turned into a Criminal Investigation [as i've read on abc news], although ten days with him still missing I knew the case might head into that direction.

Kyron, I hope you are safe and found soon!!

 

[eyes4crime]

Four BIG things that have stuck in my craw:

1) Kyron did not leave school on his own without any reason, or convincing or luring. Finally, today it's confirmed for us that LE knows this.

2) This was a hectic and abnormal school day of happy hustle-bustle visitors going in and out of this little school for special events. It was widely known in the school community, and posted on the school external billboard at the end of the school year.
This is a generally acceptable fact of the day of Kyron’s disappearance.

The third item that sticks in my craw, that has not yet been confirmed for us, but I really think we can make a very fair assumption based on inductive reasoning. And that is:

3) There was clear breach in communications between Kyron’s caretakers.

And the 4th thing that sticks in my craw is more the broad brush of the perfect storm created by points 1, 2, and 3. I believe “perfect storm coincidences” are rare. But…

4) Points 1, 2 and 3 create “the perfect storm”.


The Breach.

How is it that Kyron's teacher(s) were not "missing" Kyron? They knew he was at school that morning at the science fair.

A bit later, during formal class attendance, he was not there. Kyron's teacher(s) marked him absent. AND, the teacher(s) was clearly not concerned about the fact that Kyron was not there.

A 7 year old, and they weren't concerned. Clearly, they had a reason not to be concerned that Kyron had been there earlier, but now was not there. Using inductive reasoning (thanks Sherlock) Kyron's absence made sense to them. It was expected/anticipated.

LE knows why the teacher(s) were not concerned. They knew the evening Kyron disappeared.

Terri stood at the bus stop expecting Kyron to get off the bus. Kyron's absence from school was a shock to her. Why? Because Terri brought Kyron to school and left him there, watched him walk down the hall to his class and his teacher(s) who would take care of him that day as usual. Terri expected Kyron would have a normal (well, more fun than normal) day at school.

Kyron's teacher(s) saw Kyron early on but did not expect him to be in class at attendance time. No alarms went off for the teacher(s) when 7 year old Kyron was not there. Terri left school certain Kyron's teacher(s) would take care of him as they had every day of the school year.

What caused such different expectations about where Kyron was supposed to be all day – completely different expectations between Terri and the Teacher(s)? Something happened to cause that breach of communication between those responsible for Kyron.

This breach is an important investigation focal point, because therein lies the breakdown in Kyron's security system. This breakdown created a huge gap in time for alerting about Kyron's disappearance. This breakdown created opportunity. This breakdown created opportunity on an opportune day. It was a key event in the perfect storm set-up for the vanishing of Kryon.

I am confident that LE knows that the communication breach is an important question to answer for Kyron’s investigation and I suspect they have their answer now.

(We can note, 10 days into the investigation, that the school’s response has been to keep the teacher in the classroom. Not even temporarily with a vacation or paid leave. No disciplinary action evident there. No apparent need to CYA on this point for the school.)

The Perfect Storm.

What an incredible coincidence that the EXACT child whose caretakers had a breach/misunderstanding - in the parent-teacher expectation/communication - that EXACT busy morning is the EXACT child that was somehow lured away.
Do you believe in coincidences such as this? Should we do the math? Statistically speaking, what are the odds where the initial event of a breach of communications with regard to ONE child in a contained and secured system of 224 children leads to the vanishing event of that EXACT ONE child on this EXACT special school event calendar day of approx. 185 school days?

That’s a probability problem (lol) and I can’t remember exactly how to calculate it. Never-the-less, it’s rather slim odds.



Am I over-thinking this? I appreciate just being able to write down this one thing that sticks in my craw after all this time.


At 10 days, and the declaration of a criminal investigation, I am left asking myself, very logically: Do I believe in coincidences? And then: What are the odds?

Today my conclusion is: Kyron was specifically the target. And, IMO, this was a planned Kyron abduction. And LE’s just gotta know this.


This is all just me thinking-out-loud, noodling, and somewhere in there is my humble opinion with regard to parent-teacher communication protocol for 7 year olds and the value of statistical reasoning when assessing coincidences. I reserve, as always, the right to change my opinion tomorrow.

I'm frantically looking for JBean for a handful of jelly beans. My neurons are on 'dim'. lol Great post! :blowkiss:

Let's see: someone interfered and caused the breakdown in communication between the two caretakers (mom and teacher) and this interference was intentional so Kyron could be abducted without causing suspicion for most of the day? Is that about right? TIA So who is this person????

 

[Reannan]

What an amazing synopsis...
I am wondering one thing: I intend no disrespect to the teacher, or to anyone working at the school, but is it also possible that the teacher (or someone else) dropped the ball? In other words, that there was not quite the logical process you describe, but perhaps a lapse, a mistake, a mistake like I make at work everyday (luckily I deal with papers and not children...)

This is my second post on WS!

Thank you Audreyfan for jumping into this case. It is the ideas, and carefully thought-out thoughts of Websleuths members that sets it apart from many other crimes sites on the internet. There are members here that should be consulted by LE to review many complex cases. Your thoughts are definitely welcome here....

 

[CharlestonGal]

Was it ever verified that Kyron was supposed to be in the talent show?

"The fair happened early Friday; Kyron was also scheduled to take part in the school talent show that afternoon, but he never made it there."


http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2010/06/clinging_to_hope_on_summers_cu.html

 

[BeanE]

Hi BeanE.

Yes. I'm assuming above that this is a teacher in a school with a 20 kid per teacher ratio and she knows her students. I'm assuming she knew Kyron was there in the AM with his project and his mother, as that's what we've been told. I'm assuming she then marked him absent without alarm for a good reason.

I am willing to say it's possible she didn't have good reason. It's possible her reasoning was faulty or based on faulty information from someone such as a paraprofessional, teacher's aide, other volunteer. What's NOT possible is that she didn't notice Kyron was NOT there, after she noticed he WAS there.

Either way, my thought would be - it's still a perfect storm, and Kyron was the target.

Oh, and I should have added that if Kyron was the target, (and LE knows this), then, it would follow that this might be considered an isolated incident.

I don't think the teacher was necessarily an irresponsible teacher or an irresponsible person. I think it is quite possible that she was distracted, because this was not a normal day, and there was ample opportunity for distraction.

 

[gibby207]

So, I heard the news: Search ended and criminal investigation starts. What are the thoughts peeps?

 

[s_finch]

S Finch....I completely agree that LE is going to solve this case. Their every statement and action tells me that they know a lot more than us. I feel sad after this amount of time, that it will not have the happy outcome I pray for. But then... I think of Shaun Hornbeck. I keep going back to Kyron being a SECOND grader - that is really young! Either it was a terrible tragic event in the family - or it was targeted, IMHO. I sit on the fence as to which. Past experience can honestly point me in both directions, but the press conference by the parents bothered me - don't know why - it just did. I hope I stand a chance to be taught a new lesson in this case, and can learn to see thru less jaded eyes.

I doubt you're seeing through "jaded" eyes but rather "experienced" eyes

 

[Reannan]

"The fair happened early Friday; Kyron was also scheduled to take part in the school talent show that afternoon, but he never made it there."


http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2010/06/clinging_to_hope_on_summers_cu.html

Kyron's absence from the talent show - and no one noticing his absence - has been a huge red flag for me. Why were NO family member's there? An end-of-the-year talent show is a big deal to a second grader! Why did one of his teacher's not miss him at the talent show? I am really not randomly casting stones in any direction - just trying to fill the holes in this story.