PA - Assassination attempt, shooting injures former POTUS Donald Trump, leaves 1 spectator deceased two in critical condition, 13 July 2024 #4

[Donswife48]

I think you would have climb the ladder on the water Tower. He was extremely intelligent, appears to have done a massive amount of research, I feel sure he had plan b.
Moo

How far was the water tower? It seems like it would be an extremely unlikely shot to make, but I don’t know. I’m grateful for all opinions, because I still can’t imagine a lone person doing this.

 

[SouthAussie]

How far was the water tower?

Very near the building from where Crooks fired.

How the ‘second shooter’ conspiracy theory spread after the Trump assassination attempt

The FBI says the gunman acted alone, and the Secret Service says there’s no evidence of a second shooter. That hasn’t stopped the speculation online.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Ghostwheel]

There are often competing events. There are two ongoing right now.


Much of the rest about security has been discussed. Shooters look for gaps.

Outdoor venues have more gaps. (No doors) I believe Trump's events have been indoors since.

Shooters simply go out with a gun, waiting for a gap? Its a theory.

What I would like to see is where each of this list would fit into odds. Indoor vs outdoor chances. (in theory there would be no way to get indoors without being scanned, but is this true?)
Counter Sniper or security on that particular roof vs no one on roof.
No visible security on roof vs hidden security on roof. (how would the assassin know there was no one in one of those windows? Can you see inside from below?)
If there had been more security (hadn't needed to divide it) would it have even mattered?
Was there any combination of things that tipped the scale? If there had been some kind of communication device that all the security ( local and SS) had access to and paid attention to, would that be a 70% chance it would have stopped it? If there had been someone looking out that window of the higher section, would that have been a 89% chance they could have stopped it? If there were someone on the roof, would that be a 95% chance it would have stopped it?

There are ways to get statistics on these things, but I am unfamiliar with how to do it. Maybe there isn't enough information in the public to do so yet. But someone should be figuring out if there was anything or combination of things that could have stopped the sequence of events. The answer might be as simple as "It was outdoors", except as we all know RFK was assassinated in the kitchen of his speech venue. So shortcuts and kitchens weren't a good idea either and he was told so and did it anyway.

Things only look like 100% safe if no one gets poisoned or shot at or killed, etc for the event. It doesn't mean they are safe and you can't learn something from what went wrong elsewhere. Quite honestly the most dangerous place seems to be between wherever you gave your speech and getting to the car.

 

[Missing Susan]

Is anyone a statistician? What are the chances that:
There was an outdoor event that just happened to be in a place/city/town where a person was willing to attempt an assassination?
And that the First Lady would just happen to need SS, dividing resources, on that exact same day an hour away at pretty much the last minute?
And that an obvious roof just happened to be outside of the security zone that had no security on it?
And that all security inside the higher roofed area just happened to leave their posts when the shooter was shooting?
And that the person who was willing to assassinate someone was able to get onto onto the roof without any security seeing/stopping him.
And that the person willing to assassinate someone could belly crawl the distance they did without the Counter sniper team facing that way seeing him at all? (might be tree line, but still, what are the odds)
And that there were no radios that managed to convey "Shooter on roof, get down" before the shooting started?

Was this person just prepared and looking to see if there was a hole in security and there was a gaping one in his face so he took a chance? What are the odds of that? I mean, I'd really like to know actual ones.

Hear hear. It was a perfect storm of evil machinations and systemic failure.

Another way to look at it: Is there a crooks at every rally waiting for a roof to go unposted?

 

[Friday Fan]

Shooters simply go out with a gun, waiting for a gap? Its a theory.

What I would like to see is where each of this list would fit into odds. Indoor vs outdoor chances. (in theory there would be no way to get indoors without being scanned, but is this true?)
Counter Sniper or security on that particular roof vs no one on roof.
No visible security on roof vs hidden security on roof. (how would the assassin know there was no one in one of those windows? Can you see inside from below?)
If there had been more security (hadn't needed to divide it) would it have even mattered?
Was there any combination of things that tipped the scale? If there had been some kind of communication device that all the security ( local and SS) had access to and paid attention to, would that be a 70% chance it would have stopped it? If there had been someone looking out that window of the higher section, would that have been a 89% chance they could have stopped it? If there were someone on the roof, would that be a 95% chance it would have stopped it?

There are ways to get statistics on these things, but I am unfamiliar with how to do it. Maybe there isn't enough information in the public to do so yet. But someone should be figuring out if there was anything or combination of things that could have stopped the sequence of events. The answer might be as simple as "It was outdoors", except as we all know RFK was assassinated in the kitchen of his speech venue. So shortcuts and kitchens weren't a good idea either and he was told so and did it anyway.

Things only look like 100% safe if no one gets poisoned or shot at or killed, etc for the event. It doesn't mean they are safe and you can't learn something from what went wrong elsewhere. Quite honestly the most dangerous place seems to be between wherever you gave your speech and getting to the car.

There is almost infinite access outdoors!!

Of course, if there was proper perimeter, then he could have been so far away that a bullet wouldn't have made it. But he was only 150 yards away with almost unlimited access.

 

[Friday Fan]

Another way to look at it: Is there a crooks at every rally waiting for a roof to go unposted?

Potentially. That's what they should plan for at least.

 

[Donswife48]

Very near the building from where Crooks fired.

View attachment 520314

How the ‘second shooter’ conspiracy theory spread after the Trump assassination attempt

The FBI says the gunman acted alone, and the Secret Service says there’s no evidence of a second shooter. That hasn’t stopped the speculation online.

www.nbcnews.com

I found a different picture of the water tower in relation to the stage and the rooftop TC shot from. You can see the legs of the tower behind the #3 photo. It appears that it is behind the stage which might not have given him a shot. The article also shows the roof, which was supposed to be unsafe. There are prominent ridges to the metal which wouldn't have been a safety hazard for the SS.

Video reveals chaotic scramble as Thomas Crooks fired at Donald Trump

Thomas Crooks, 20, launched eight rapid fire shots from his AR-15-style rifle at Donald Trump in under six seconds before snipers fired two counter shots, including the one that killed him.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Very near the building from where Crooks fired.

View attachment 520314

How the ‘second shooter’ conspiracy theory spread after the Trump assassination attempt

The FBI says the gunman acted alone, and the Secret Service says there’s no evidence of a second shooter. That hasn’t stopped the speculation online.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Maumau1616]

This is what think happened:
Father bought firearm from a firearms dealer in 2013.
Purchase requires background check.
If gun is sold or gifted to family member, a background check is not required
Therefore the gun was traced to the father.


However, the investigation was just getting started when they said that he had borrowed the gun. Was this media "interpretation"..
Maybe the media just interpreted that the father was the owner?

When a gun is sold or gifted from a family member to another family member a background check is not required.

I think the main takeaway would be: The father wasn't looking for his gun, because the gun was no longer his.

MOO

Are you thinking TC wouldn't have passed a background check? I'd be surprised given he worked with vulnerable populations (in the nursing home). MOO

 

[Betty P]

Very near the building from where Crooks fired.

View attachment 520314

How the ‘second shooter’ conspiracy theory spread after the Trump assassination attempt

The FBI says the gunman acted alone, and the Secret Service says there’s no evidence of a second shooter. That hasn’t stopped the speculation online.

www.nbcnews.com

The ballistic evidence would tell them if there was a second shooter.

 

[Friday Fan]

Are you thinking TC wouldn't have passed a background check? I'd be surprised given he worked with vulnerable populations (in the nursing home). MOO

No.

Because firearms are expensive and it was cheap this way. I assume he sold it to him cheap.

Not having the background check is a side affect of a private sale.