PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #13

[JaimeSommers]

There were at least eight witnesses that put RFG in Lewisburg on 4/15/05, that have been reported in the press. At least 6 of those saw him in the Mini, 2 in the Mini in the parking lot where it was found.

The times that the witnesses saw RFG fits this being the same person. http://www.centredaily.com/2009/03/12/2396594/the-lewisburg-witnesses-april.html

There is at least one witness that saw him driving there, turning onto Route 192. While the time of that sighting has not been release, I can say that it easily fits the timeline of RFG being in Lewisburg between Noon and 1:00 PM when the witnesses at the Packwood House saw him.

RFG was noted to be "an adventurous driver," and was once clocked on the Benner Pike at either 80 or 90 MPH. Route 192 was not, in 2005, regularly patrolled by the PSP (and I don't think there are any local police departments). It has been suggested to me that RFG would choose Route 192, simply because he could drive it at a higher rate of speed.

The dog detected his scent in the parking lot going away from the car; the handler said it looked like RFG got into another car. There was no evidence that the car was wiped down and no evidence of anyone else driving the car. His cell phone was in the car, turned off. A bottle of water was found in the car, with his DNA in it.

There was a trace of ash on the passenger side floor and the scent of cigarette smoke in the car. However, it is possible that a smoker was leaning in on the passenger side.

While there were not enough ridge characteristic to take prints from the interior, RFG's prints were found on the outside passenger window. That indicates the car had not been washed.

There is at least one witness that saw him driving there, turning onto Route 192. While the time of that sighting has not been release, I can say that it easily fits the timeline of RFG being in Lewisburg between Noon and 1:00 PM when the witnesses at the Packwood House saw him.

RFG was noted to be "an adventurous driver," and was once clocked on the Benner Pike at either 80 or 90 MPH. Route 192 was not, in 2005, regularly patrolled by the PSP (and I don't think there are any local police departments). It has been suggested to me that RFG would choose Route 192, simply because he could drive it at a higher rate of speed.

All that said, and with the physical evidence, I feel that it would be a misstatement of fact to say "witnesses reportedly saw." The witnesses saw RFG in the Mini, in the parking lot where the Mini was located, and where his scent was detected.

Good god. I never said he was never in Lewisburg. Just last week I said I think he's in the wetlands.

It is exhausting to participate here sometimes. I feel like I have to weigh every single word carefully or get a lecture about how wrong I am. If you have all the answers, then where is he?

What I meant was, I don't trust that he was with a woman in the SoS. I believe that those who knew him who reported seeing him en route to Lewisburg really saw him. I believe he was seen in the Mini in the parking lot.

This became a high-profile case quickly. I believe people wanted to help, but I don't think all sightings were accurate. As Miss J already stated, people thought they saw the McStay family. Some of those inaccurate sightings took the case down a rabbit hole that, IMO, harmed a quick resolution.

I've not asked anyone to change their theories, nor have I told anyone their theories are wrong. The case belongs to everyone.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I think at least two posters interpreted this as meaning that there was an indication that RFG was not in Lewisburg.

Snipped

I know that I'm in the minority here, but I'm not convinced the witnesses really saw RFG in Lewisburg.

There are some people out there who do everything to insist that RFG was never in Lewisburg; none of them are in LE. I do want to be clear even for the sake of visitors, that there is substantial evidence that RFG was in Lewisburg.

On some of the other points:

(Snipped)

What I meant was, I don't trust that he was with a woman in the SoS. I believe that those who knew him who reported seeing him en route to Lewisburg really saw him. I believe he was seen in the Mini in the parking lot.

I don't thing you are in the minority, or at least I am in the minority with you. There are only two known witnesses to RFG being the SoS with a woman on 4/15; there was no physical evidence. That could be a mistake or could have been just someone RFG struck up a conversation with or who asked him about some products. It might have been him but he was not "with" the woman.

This became a high-profile case quickly. I believe people wanted to help, but I don't think all sightings were accurate. As Miss J already stated, people thought they saw the McStay family. Some of those inaccurate sightings took the case down a rabbit hole that, IMO, harmed a quick resolution.

The witness that first reported RFG was in Lewisburg was one of the witnesses that reported him with the woman on 4/15. Bemmett, the SoS owner, reported seeing him after that, on 4/16. Bennett's sighting was referenced in the first wire service story released at 10:45 PM on 4/16, IIRC. That story was the first media story that hit Lewisburg, but it did not mention the Mystery Woman.

Locally, in Lewisburg, there may have been some references to her in the summer of 2005 on the CDT's website, and there was a story mentioning her in 11/05 in a Cleveland paper, but there wasn't any large media until May 2006.

There were some sightings that were ruled out, both on 4/15 and 4/16, so some of these have been screened. McKnight's witness is the only one that I can think of on 4/15 that isn't corroborated by another direct witness.

BTW: While it is possible, maybe even probable, that RFG was there on 4/16, I am skeptical.

 

[MissJ]

No, they were not "pushing walkway." The police do not make multiple searches of the Susquehanna, bring in a cadaver dog, if they think there is no body there. Even LE that was handling it at the time still think it was suicide.

Now, the reason some are saying, openly, walkaway, is because the evidence is pointing to it. There is basically no evidence pointing specifically to foul play.

As for evidence, there is literally more evidence that RFG was in Lewisburg, at least after noon on 4/15/05, than there is that Jerry Sandusky was even in a shower with a child at PSU. I think he was.

As to why they thought he was with a woman, I'm tempted to say, "Because he was a man." In all seriousness, the first witness that reported seeming RFG reported seeing him in SoS with a woman. Now whether or not he was actually "with" her is a good question.

I don't believe I said WERE pushing. I said ARE. That apparently is their theory. I (and I'm permitted an opinion) don't see the evidence. That same evidence could be homicide. Like I've said many times, it reminds me of the McStay case where LE kept saying walkaway til the bodies were found. :truce::moo:

 

[MissJ]

FWIW I never doubted RFG was in Lewisburg on 4/15. It was later sightings that I question. JMO

 

[J. J. in Phila]

FWIW I never doubted RFG was in Lewisburg on 4/15. It was later sightings that I question. JMO

Well, based on they released, I would not conclude RFG was in Lewisburg on 4/16, but I would call it probable.

The problem is, that I have heard that there are more 4/16 witnesses. I once to Buehner that I questioned the accuracy of the 4/16 witnesses. His response was, "I don't."

 

[BigCat]

I don't believe I said WERE pushing. I said ARE. That apparently is their theory. I (and I'm permitted an opinion) don't see the evidence. That same evidence could be homicide. Like I've said many times, it reminds me of the McStay case where LE kept saying walkaway til the bodies were found. :truce::moo:

IMO, further searching for RFG's body would be a waste of resources at this point, even if I believed homicide was likely. The McStays' bodies were discovered by a passing motorist nearly 100 miles from their home (and several hundred miles from their abandoned vehicle). It's unlikely that LE would have recovered their bodies by further searching.

(sorry if your point was unrelated to further searches. I know the possibility of more searches was mentioned up thread.)

 

[MissJ]

IMO, further searching for RFG's body would be a waste of resources at this point, even if I believed homicide was likely. The McStays' bodies were discovered by a passing motorist nearly 100 miles from their home (and several hundred miles from their abandoned vehicle). It's unlikely that LE would have recovered their bodies by further searching.

(sorry if you were point was unrelated to further searches. I know the possibility of more searches was mentioned up thread.)

Actually wasn't suggesting further searches. I think they did what they needed to do at the time. My point was LE made assumptions after searches that RFG and McStay's had disappeared and declared that they had walked away. Some boy knows something that is key to RFG's and McStay's disappearance. SDSO really botched the latter case and allowed bank accounts to be drained all the while publicly declaring nothing was out of order. I wonder what LE may have overlooked in RFG's case.:moo:

 

[MissJ]

Well, based on they released, I would not conclude RFG was in Lewisburg on 4/16, but I would call it probable.

The problem is, that I have heard that there are more 4/16 witnesses. I once to Buehner that I questioned the accuracy of the 4/16 witnesses. His response was, "I don't."

My I ask if you asked him "why"?:twocents:

 

[J. J. in Phila]

IMO, further searching for RFG's body would be a waste of resources at this point, even if I believed homicide was likely. The McStays' bodies were discovered by a passing motorist nearly 100 miles from their home (and several hundred miles from their abandoned vehicle). It's unlikely that LE would have recovered their bodies by further searching.

(sorry if you were point was unrelated to further searches. I know the possibility of more searches was mentioned up thread.)

I would, but only within walking distance of where the Mini was found, about 1.5 miles from the east side bridgehead.

This is largely to rule out suicide, and to a lesser extent, murder.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

My I ask if you asked him "why"?:twocents:

You can, but I didn't. It was clear that BB could not give me details, though he did indicate that there were witness reports not made public (and not revealed to me).

On the prior thread, I posted his public letter to Madeira. He said in that letter that the Mystery Woman was seen with RFG on 4/16. The published accounts said 4/15. Now, did someone spot RFG with the Mystery Woman on 4/16, or was BB mistaken?

I am holding back some things. Right now, the PSP has everything I have, either through getting the BPD files or from me directly.

 

[Trackergd]

I am interested in how likely it would be for a cadaver dog to be able to detect what would be nine year old remains.

While there are exceptions to every rule, I would doubt nine year old remains would contain enough of a decomposition scent to alert a cadaver dog unless he/she was right on top of the remains.

Searching for remains might have greater success with a tight grid search. Searchers elbow to elbow covering every inch looking for bones, clothing articles etc.

I am confident that RFG did not go "flat-heading" across country tromping through thickets, brush etc... He would have used established trails and would most likely be found in close proximity to one if he committed suicide.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

While there are exceptions to every rule, I would doubt nine year old remains would contain enough of a decomposition scent to alert a cadaver dog unless he/she was right on top of the remains.

Thanks. That might be one opportunity lost forever.

Searching for remains might have greater success with a tight grid search. Searchers elbow to elbow covering every inch looking for bones, clothing articles etc.

With the personnel needed, and some of the terrain, that would be next to impossible.

I am confident that RFG did not go "flat-heading" across country tromping through thickets, brush etc... He would have used established trails and would most likely be found in close proximity to one if he committed suicide.

A railroad borders the area, which would be good for walking. Perhaps that, and any other trails, could be searched.

 

[MissJ]

FWIW, I originally thought suicide was the greatest possibility given his behavior prior to his disappearance but then no body was found. Also, from my experience people who have made up their mind to suicide usually are more calm and happy than usual because they have made a plan and are satisfied. Given this, I also doubted RFG's brother suicided. I lived nearby and my husband had worked on base with him. There is information I can't reveal because confidentiality laws but I still don't believe it. JMO

 

[MissJ]

The only reason I cannot fully accept walkaway is that to me RFG had no real reason to hurt his family. If there was some underlying issue such as concerns about how he had handled Sandusky's issue or he was being threatened and wanted to protect his family I could be on board. But due to LE having jumped to conclusions in so many cases I've followed (where they declare voluntary missing) I have my doubts. JMO.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

A number of people, including RFG's nephews, thought it was suicide. When I first heard the reports, I thought to myself, "Well, they'll be fishing the body out of the river in a couple of weeks."

As for RFG's bother, he had had a long history of diagnosed bipolar depression. He had retired, which may have been related. I don't doubt suicide.

The only reason I cannot fully accept walkaway is that to me RFG had no real reason to hurt his family. If there was some underlying issue such as concerns about how he had handled Sandusky's issue or he was being threatened and wanted to protect his family I could be on board. But due to LE having jumped to conclusions in so many cases I've followed (where they declare voluntary missing) I have my doubts. JMO.

I would not agree that LE jumped to any conclusions, and certainly did not "jump" to any conclusion that he walked away, and never "declared" him voluntarily missing. Since 2006-7, the evidence that has come out has pointed toward a voluntary act, but not strongly.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

While unlikely, I thought I would post this: http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/in..._remains_found_perry_coun.html#incart_m-rpt-1

The identified the sex (male), so it is a bit unlikely that if RFG, they could get sex.

 

[shadow of my mind]

While there are exceptions to every rule, I would doubt nine year old remains would contain enough of a decomposition scent to alert a cadaver dog unless he/she was right on top of the remains.

Searching for remains might have greater success with a tight grid search. Searchers elbow to elbow covering every inch looking for bones, clothing articles etc.

I am confident that RFG did not go "flat-heading" across country tromping through thickets, brush etc... He would have used established trails and would most likely be found in close proximity to one if he committed suicide.

BBM
That is a very good point.

Based on a suicide assumption at the time, the focus was placed on the river.

Were other areas really searched?

I also think that if this was foul play, then the simple fact of the location of the mini, next to the river and coupled with RG brothers death, it very well could have been assumed with a good degree of accuracy, what LE would think.

Look at how RG nephews first thoughts went immediately to suicide.

Had a thorough search of more than just the river been done then suicide (which is in my opinion somewhere at the 1% chance of what happen) I think is could have been ruled out at the time. Now its 9 years later which makes any search almost impossible to do.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped

I also think that if this was foul play, then the simple fact of the location of the mini, next to the river and coupled with RG brothers death, it very well could have been assumed with a good degree of accuracy, what LE would think.

Look at how RG nephews first thoughts went immediately to suicide.

I only know of one person in Centre County, on 4/15/05, that visited the site of Roy Gricar's 1996 suicide, and that was Ray Gricar. PEF wasn't with him in 1996. Petito had moved to Harrisburg by that point. Emma Gricar may have known, but she had moved out of the area years before he disappeared. I doubt that he took Sloane on a "Gricar family tragedy tour."

The site of Roy's suicide was about 30-45 miles away from his home, and not on the way to Pennsylvania. He wouldn't have been passing it on a family vacation.

Tony once said that he and his brother both thought suicide when the heard that the Mini was found off Water Street. There were in route when they got the call.

It is possible for someone to have heard about the suicide and done a web search for the site, but really, unless it was someone that knew him well in 1996, who else could have made the connection?

 

[MissJ]

A number of people, including RFG's nephews, thought it was suicide. When I first heard the reports, I thought to myself, "Well, they'll be fishing the body out of the river in a couple of weeks."

As for RFG's bother, he had had a long history of diagnosed bipolar depression. He had retired, which may have been related. I don't doubt suicide.




I would not agree that LE jumped to any conclusions, and certainly did not "jump" to any conclusion that he walked away, and never "declared" him voluntarily missing. Since 2006-7, the evidence that has come out has pointed toward a voluntary act, but not strongly.

I didn't mean that in RFG's case anyone jumped to conclusions. Actually have seen this in many other cases though.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I didn't mean that in RFG's case anyone jumped to conclusions. Actually have seen this in many other cases though.

Well, I think that, at different times, LE, often different individuals, thought different things were more likely than others. Even today, we have the police in 2005 to early 2007 saying that they think it was suicide, the DA from 2006-10 saying walkaway.