PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #13

[shadow of my mind]

Snipped



I only know of one person in Centre County, on 4/15/05, that visited the site of Roy Gricar's 1996 suicide, and that was Ray Gricar. PEF wasn't with him in 1996. Petito had moved to Harrisburg by that point. Emma Gricar may have known, but she had moved out of the area years before he disappeared. I doubt that he took Sloane on a "Gricar family tragedy tour."

The site of Roy's suicide was about 30-45 miles away from his home, and not on the way to Pennsylvania. He wouldn't have been passing it on a family vacation.

Tony once said that he and his brother both thought suicide when the heard that the Mini was found off Water Street. There were in route when they got the call.

It is possible for someone to have heard about the suicide and done a web search for the site, but really, unless it was someone that knew him well in 1996, who else could have made the connection?[/QUOTE]

BBM

He re-ran for DA in 1997 and 2001. His brother’s death happened in 1996.
In my opinion anything that could have a potential for coming up in a political race should have been known by those involved in his campaign, at least those at the higher levels, and very likely people from opposing or competing campaigns.
How many people would that be? I have no idea. It could be something interesting to look into to see how many people actually knew about the circumstances.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

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BBM

He re-ran for DA in 1997 and 2001. His brother’s death happened in 1996.
In my opinion anything that could have a potential for coming up in a political race should have been known by those involved in his campaign, at least those at the higher levels, and very likely people from opposing or competing campaigns.
How many people would that be? I have no idea. It could be something interesting to look into to see how many people actually knew about the circumstances.

1997, RFG was unopposed. No campaign.

2001, I'm not sure that RFG actually did anything but speak directly to voters. RFG was getting divorced, for the second time, in 2001, so anyone looking for a personal scandal would probably look at that.

I'd also question the relevancy of RFG's brother's suicide 5 years before to the 2001 race.

The issues in DA's races were basically:

1985-experience, Goodall (D) was never a prosecutor. RFG (R) had about 14 years experience and had been 1st Assistant DA.

1989-experience possibly, but RFG's opponent (D) said he'd only serve one term.

1993-making the position full time. Bryant (D) wanted to keep it part time.

1997-no opponent, RFG got the R nomination unopposed and there was no one running on the D side. [Position now full time.]

2001-part was experience. Bascom's (R-primary) experience was working one summer in a DA's Office while in school.

After RFG decided not to run

2005-Both candidates, Madeira (R) and Arnold (D), that won the primary had been prosecutors. Issues focused on Madeira's trial experience and his attending Bob Jones University as an undergraduate, possibly administrative experience.

2009-Incumbent's conduct. Both candidates, Madeira (R), and Parks Miller (D), had been prosecutors, both had administrative experience.

2013-No opponent. Parks Miller wins both nominations.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Here is one article on the 1989 race: http://www.collegian.psu.edu/archives/article_de636815-2b78-5b10-b6f5-8e2c2130981b.html

The opponent Stover, wanted one term: http://www.collegian.psu.edu/archives/article_e1744f85-80d1-5f3c-b8f3-08b63f9624d2.html

The issues were the full time/part time status and experience.

In 1993 the full time/part time issue was the main issue again.

http://www.collegian.psu.edu/archives/article_fb8e6ad1-a7cb-5cce-97b0-4180eec8ea8b.html

An article on the 2001 race, with Bascom indicated he had been a public defender: http://www.collegian.psu.edu/archives/article_d388dcc0-26a0-58f4-a8e1-3e6fb7d9c309.html

Here is the link to RFG talking about the first race against Goodall, saying that he ran because Goodall had never been a prosecutor: http://www.collegian.psu.edu/archives/article_dd53f0ff-fab2-530d-a9b7-63658c1abbcf.html

 

[MissJ]

I might think suicide too except for the lack of a body. JMO.

 

[Fromthedeepestjungle]

I might think suicide too except for the lack of a body. JMO.

Nope it has been murder all along but hey lets keep it on going

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I might think suicide too except for the lack of a body. JMO.

I think that there is a lot there points to some voluntary act, and suicide is a voluntary act.

The money and the recent comments from people at the PBM both can point to suicide or walkaway, the first one more strongly. Both point away from foul play.

 

[Trackergd]

I might think suicide too except for the lack of a body. JMO.

This has bugged me a bit (along with a host of other bits of evidence).

Drowning is a rather violent way to die...at least at first. The minds reflex instinct is to preserve itself. To overcome that, you would have to jump from a height or a bridge to preclude swimming to shore and the hope that the impact with the water would stun you enough to overcome the survival instinct. Another method would be to take some type of medication or drug and then enter the water as it took effect..again to overcome the survival instinct.

If one is going to use medication, might as well pick a nice quiet and private place near a babbling brook, pond or pleasing natural feature, sit down against a tree, take the medication/drugs and drift off.

This would suggest RFG's remains would be within a couple of miles, in a wooded area, near a trail....or he followed one of the above water scenario's.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

This has bugged me a bit (along with a host of other bits of evidence).

Drowning is a rather violent way to die...at least at first. The minds reflex instinct is to preserve itself. To overcome that, you would have to jump from a height or a bridge to preclude swimming to shore and the hope that the impact with the water would stun you enough to overcome the survival instinct. Another method would be to take some type of medication or drug and then enter the water as it took effect..again to overcome the survival instinct.

If one is going to use medication, might as well pick a nice quiet and private place near a babbling brook, pond or pleasing natural feature, sit down against a tree, take the medication/drugs and drift off.

This would suggest RFG's remains would be within a couple of miles, in a wooded area, near a trail....or he followed one of the above water scenario's.

I am pretty much in agreement, regarding the methods of suicide.

My problem with diving into the water is the level of searches. These were massive and began on 4/17/05. There were also number of people, some with altruistic intention, some who wanted to claim the reward, who looked, rented kayaks, and looked.

Physically, the river was high, fast moving, and very cold. Air temperatures dropped into the 30's that night. Hypothermia would be the issue, even if the act of going in was not fatal. RFG was not a particularly good swimmer.

While I think he could jumped, walked, or fallen, into the river, I think it is hugely unlikely.

Suicide not involving the river would be more likely. We know he didn't carry a gun.

A couple of easy methods would be hanging, i.e. he could buy a rope or could even use his fleece; that has happened in the Lewisburg area. He could buy a Swiss Army type knife and slit his wrists. He could also buy some sleeping pills, and a bottle of vodka to wash them down, and drift off. As the air temperature was cooler, that could help him drift off earlier.

All of those things can be purchased inexpensively in either Centre or Union Counties.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Here is a link to the weather conditions and sun and moon rise/set for 4/15: http://www.wunderground.com/history...tml?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Not that it is a bit south of Lewisburg. Temperature could be slightly cooler and it might get dark about a minute later.

 

[JaimeSommers]

I am pretty much in agreement, regarding the methods of suicide.

My problem with diving into the water is the level of searches. These were massive and began on 4/17/05. There were also number of people, some with altruistic intention, some who wanted to claim the reward, who looked, rented kayaks, and looked.

Physically, the river was high, fast moving, and very cold. Air temperatures dropped into the 30's that night. Hypothermia would be the issue, even if the act of going in was not fatal. RFG was not a particularly good swimmer.

While I think he could jumped, walked, or fallen, into the river, I think it is hugely unlikely.

Suicide not involving the river would be more likely. We know he didn't carry a gun.

A couple of easy methods would be hanging, i.e. he could buy a rope or could even use his fleece; that has happened in the Lewisburg area. He could buy a Swiss Army type knife and slit his wrists. He could also buy some sleeping pills, and a bottle of vodka to wash them down, and drift off. As the air temperature was cooler, that could help him drift off earlier.

All of those things can be purchased inexpensively in either Centre or Union Counties.

BBM ... We know he didn't typically carry a gun, or we know he didn't have a gun on April 15? If the latter, how do we know that?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

BBM ... We know he didn't typically carry a gun, or we know he didn't have a gun on April 15? If the latter, how do we know that?

He didn't own one, apparently, and LE has listed what was missing. No gun.

I suppose he could have obtained one illegally, but why? He would have no problem, as an incumbent DA, buying a gun or getting a permit to carry one.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Just two points:

1. I think the gun questions are quite reasonable. I asked them myself.

A blog was written on what RFG had with him that is missing. http://www.centredaily.com/2009/03/23/2397185/what-else-is-missing.html

2. Here is a site that which gives sunrise/sunset and moonrise/moonset for any location, at least in the US: http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/RS_OneDay.php

You can use it to see the light conditions in your location and compare visibility with what it would have been like on 4/15/05 in Lewisburg.

I noted that at the end of "civil twilight" at my location, it is effectively night, but at sunset, it is still quite bright.

As we have been discussing the possibility of RFG moving around on foot, and possibly going into wooded/swampy areas, the lighting conditions may be important.

 

[Trackergd]

While I would not rule out a swampy area, most folks tend to stick to established trails that provide the least path of resistance, even when they are distressed. The exception is when they have no other choice.

Another odd tidbit, when they have a choice, left handed people tend to circle to the left and take the left trail at a T or Y. Right handed people circle to the right and take the right trail at a T or Y.

If we had a suspected starting point in Lewisburg, such as a trail, following the above and other tactics we trackers use, we can eliminate about 50% of the probable search area.

Now this is not a high probability theory, but I was wondering if an accomplice may have been unwitting. RFG taking the accomplice along to a trailhead, then asking accomplice to take the Mini back to the parking lot and he would walk back.

 

[MissJ]

Nope it has been murder all along but hey lets keep it on going

I think it most likely, in my opinion was homicide, too.:moo:

 

[MissJ]

Actually hanging is an easier quicker method. you don't actually have to suspend yourself just lean into the noose.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Actually hanging is an easier quicker method. you don't actually have to suspend yourself just lean into the noose.

There was a suicide by hanging, in the woods, in the Lewisburg area in May of 2009. The body was not discovered for 10-11 months, but it was found.

http://www.wgrc.com/news/2010-04-05-april-5th-2010

 

[J. J. in Phila]

While I would not rule out a swampy area, most folks tend to stick to established trails that provide the least path of resistance, even when they are distressed. The exception is when they have no other choice.

Another odd tidbit, when they have a choice, left handed people tend to circle to the left and take the left trail at a T or Y. Right handed people circle to the right and take the right trail at a T or Y.

If we had a suspected starting point in Lewisburg, such as a trail, following the above and other tactics we trackers use, we can eliminate about 50% of the probable search area.

That could be useful. The area I'd be looking at is about 1.5 miles east of the bridgehead. A lot of that area is not a location to hide a body. It is people front yards (and homes) and active farming fields. Those can be eliminated. Likewise, I think the quarry is active and if remains would be there, they would have been discovered years ago.

Some "paths" would include the old canal trail and the railroad right of ways.

Now this is not a high probability theory, but I was wondering if an accomplice may have been unwitting. RFG taking the accomplice along to a trailhead, then asking accomplice to take the Mini back to the parking lot and he would walk back.

We don't have any indication of anyone else driving the Mini. A second person, one that drove his/her own car to Lewisburg, could have dropped him some where.

If would raise the question of if someone dropped RFG off, unwittingly, why didn't that person come forward?

 

[SeekingJana]

This has bugged me a bit (along with a host of other bits of evidence).

Drowning is a rather violent way to die...at least at first. The minds reflex instinct is to preserve itself. To overcome that, you would have to jump from a height or a bridge to preclude swimming to shore and the hope that the impact with the water would stun you enough to overcome the survival instinct. Another method would be to take some type of medication or drug and then enter the water as it took effect..again to overcome the survival instinct.

If one is going to use medication, might as well pick a nice quiet and private place near a babbling brook, pond or pleasing natural feature, sit down against a tree, take the medication/drugs and drift off.

This would suggest RFG's remains would be within a couple of miles, in a wooded area, near a trail....or he followed one of the above water scenario's.

We see or are told about the flailing and panic which happens when a person can't get out of a riptide or is otherwise in initial trouble in the water. This usually only lasts a few minutes, although it seems to go on forever. If help cannot reach the person in trouble, or if suicide is the objective, then the person begins the process of drowning, whereby the blood and brain are deprived of O2 and CO2 and then H2O fills the lungs and tissue spaces.

In all cases of drowning except the rare " dry drownings" of children, there is a type of CO2 narcosis which begins as drowning begins which makes drowning a very slowed down process from the vantage point of the person who is drowning.
The drowning individual does so with complete calm and peace in mind and body during the phase of drowning/ dying.
There might have been an initial struggle while they were conscious but actual drowning is not a conscious function.

If there is ANY comfort to be had, it is that those who drown do not suffer in their last moments on earth. Rather, they are in a state of calmness and a type of brain sleep. Drowning is one of the most peaceful deaths there is.

I learned about the cycle of O2 to CO2 displacement in brain tissue in nursing school, and about the narcosis which precedes a loss of consciousness. Many times, I have been able to give some measure of comfort to a family about what their loved one felt and thought as they were drowning. The death is peaceful. It is not a struggle at all once drowning begins.

I know this most likely does not apply to Ray but there may be someone here who has had a friend or family member drown. I think it's important to separate what we think we know about drowning from watching a conscious person trying to get out of the water vs. what actually happens during the drowning itself. I wish no one drowned at all, of course, but it is NOT a violent struggle for life. It is quiet and calm and extremely peaceful. We believe there are pleasant hallucinations for up to 5 minutes during the actual process of drowning.

The human mind has many self- protective measures... this one is started by a physiologic process of CO2 buioldup, or CO2 narcosis, however one wants to state it.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Thanks, and good to see you post.

I do agree that RFG being in the river as a result of falling, jumping, being pushed or his corpse being dumped are remote.

 

[MissJ]

JMO, as a victim of a near drowning I can say I was terrified and am to this day of being in deep water. Water in lungs and all that.....I have nightmares. It wouldn't be my method of suicide. But with no body I doubt suicide anyway. Something was on his mind though in the days before he vanished. What could it have been?