PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #4

[J. J. in Phila]

Thanks for the link. The blog is interesting. I do not remember the mystery woman from the case when it happened and I was originally following it. I need to go back and read about that. Is it certain that it was him with her?

No, it is not certain. The "Lewisburg Mystery Woman" match a general description of the "Harrisburg Woman," an old friend of Mr. Gricar. It was enough that a number of people immediately thought of the "Harrisburg Woman" when they heard that Mr. Gricar was seen with a woman in Lewisburg.

The "Harrisburg Woman" was not checked out, other than a brief phone call.

 

[OriginalJerseyGirl]

If you are asking if there was some sort of conspiracy involving LE, no.

No, not at all. For the most part, I don't believe in conspiracies. I was just curious if you believed that LE had followed leads effectively and questioned witnesses appropriately. But I see by one of your posts that you don't believe that LE was as thorough as they should have been in the beginning. I definitely agree.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

No, not at all. For the most part, I don't believe in conspiracies. I was just curious if you believed that LE had followed leads effectively and questioned witnesses appropriately. But I see by one of your posts that you don't believe that LE was as thorough as they should have been in the beginning. I definitely agree.

My short answer is no, not everything has been investigated. I think the "Harrisburg Woman" is a prime example. They did have a change in personnel on the case (new Chief, new detective since that time), so I'm optimistic.

I think that there other avenues that should be checked, namely to look at potential method that Mr. Gricar could have used to leave Lewisburg, such as using a false identity to buy or rent a car, or getting help from a trusted friend to provide transportation. If they find something, that could determine if he walked away. If they don't that could almost rule out walking away.

This might surprise you, but if I were sure Mr. Gricar left voluntarily, I would not be posting, except to post "Ray, I salute you. You're a smarter guy than I am." The only reason I post is because of the very real possibility Mr. Gricar was murdered. 46% walkaway to 44% murder isn't an example of me being certain.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I just wanted to say that in the first several days the LE did do a really good job.

1. About 12 hours from the last contact, on 4/15/05Ms Fornicola telephoned the Bellefonte Police. Within an hour (I think), they had an APB out on Mr. Gricar.

(I live in Phila and the police here would have said. "Call back in 36 hours.")

2. They contacted his friends and coworkers on the morning of 4/16. At about noon, they began an air search, and had checked cell phone records. The checked his office computer in the early afternoon. A press conference was held, alerting the public.

3. The Mini was found on 4/16 at about 6:30 PM. It was checked for evidence by State Police. A water bottle in the car was checked for DNA; only Mr. Gricar's DNA was found.

4. On 4/17, scent dogs were brought in. In the evening, LE checked his home computers and discovered the laptop missing. Over the next week, the continued the search for it. They canvassed for witnesses, check motels in the Lewisburg area, hospitals, and mass transit. They contacted the Harrisburg Woman (I'm not sure when.).

5. Sometime during the week they checked the Fornicola residence as a walk through, but not an actual search. They looked for freshly cleaned areas, new carpeting, evidence that maybe something happened there. None was found.

6. They got Mr. Gricar's medical records, they sent divers and a cadaver dog to the to the river. They got the FBI to monitor his credit cards.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

No data recovered from the hard drive.

http://www.centredaily.com/news/local/story/857207.html

 

[OriginalJerseyGirl]

Wow, seeing it all outlined like that shows how quickly LE really did move on this case. Also being from Philly, it almost makes me suspicious as to why they moved SO quickly! lol.

 

[OriginalJerseyGirl]

No data recovered from the hard drive.

http://www.centredaily.com/news/local/story/857207.html

Ah, other articles made it sound as if they recovered no clues. This one states that they recovered nothing at all. :banghead:

 

[J. J. in Phila]

In terms of the computer, Kroll could not retrieve data, but might have retrieved information, such as a time went the drive was tossed, the last time it was activated, or if it was erased prior to tossing. All that could help.

Wow, seeing it all outlined like that shows how quickly LE really did move on this case. Also being from Philly, it almost makes me suspicious as to why they moved SO quickly! lol.

What if it were Lynn Abraham?

There were a number of factors. Mr. Gricar was the DA for 20 years (and with the office for five years before that) and would be known to the local police.

Ms. Fornicola was the niece of the former mayor of Bellefonte (and a prominent business owner known as "Mr. Bellefonte") and the first cousin Centre County Treasurer (who has the same last name. I've understood that she was also a former probation or parole officer, aside from being, at the time, a current employee of the DA's Office. She was also a lifelong resident of Bellefonte. She was someone known to the local police as well.

Had this been Ray Gricar, wills and estates attorney, and Patty Smith, they may have said, "Come back in 36 hours."

I'll add that you have to remember that Bellefonte has less than 7,000 people and the police officer that took the initial call was hired way back when Gino Fornicola (Ms. Fornicola's then deceased uncle) was mayor.

Also, other than the APB, no real search began until mid morning on 4/16/05.

 

[tuppence]

Two issues I see with the walkaway:

1) Financial: I would think that it would be difficult to hide the fact from the current investigation that he had been diverting/squirreling away money unless he had been doing it in small amounts for a long time. If he had not diverted the money then he had to be really desperate to walkaway with no money. Assuming they have found no financial disparity then he either planned this for a very long time or was desperate and made a sudden move.

2) Motive: There is nothing obvious holding him back from exiting his current situations in a more normal way. It seems to me that people who walkaway are people who feel overwhelmed with responsibilities they do not know how to deal with (or want to deal with). These seem to be the main categories of walkaways that I have seen:
a) Young adults/college students who are feeling a lot of pressure to succeed or want to be more independent
b) mothers/fathers overwhelmed with parenthood, family responsibilities
c) those in problematic legal/financial situations
d) women in abusive situation

None of these seems to be applicable. Not that I'm saying an abduction in broad daylight makes any sense either.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Two issues I see with the walkaway:

1) Financial: I would think that it would be difficult to hide the fact from the current investigation that he had been diverting/squirreling away money unless he had been doing it in small amounts for a long time. If he had not diverted the money then he had to be really desperate to walkaway with no money. Assuming they have found no financial disparity then he either planned this for a very long time or was desperate and made a sudden move.

So far as I know, there has never been a forensic audit of Mr. Gricar's assets. From the public record, he grossed more than $100 K per year in the five years after his divorce from his public salary; the last two more than $120 K from his salary.

From everything that has been said about his lifestyle, he's never expended that much money. Granted, he could have made some bad investments, he could given fabulously to charity, he could have given it to friends, gambled heavily, but that's not likely.

2) Motive: There is nothing obvious holding him back from exiting his current situations in a more normal way. It seems to me that people who walkaway are people who feel overwhelmed with responsibilities they do not know how to deal with (or want to deal with). These seem to be the main categories of walkaways that I have seen:
a) Young adults/college students who are feeling a lot of pressure to succeed or want to be more independent
b) mothers/fathers overwhelmed with parenthood, family responsibilities
c) those in problematic legal/financial situations
d) women in abusive situation

There are people who just want to start a new life. Jay Carsey, a Maryland college president was one. Another was Hinckley Township Ohio police chief Mel Wiley. Mr. Gricar discussed the Wiley case at least eight years after it happened; that has been reported. Mr. Gricar was also "fascinated" by another walkaway case, though this was not reported as of yet (and that won't raise my numbers).

 

[tuppence]

There are people who just want to start a new life. Jay Carsey, a Maryland college president was one. Another was Hinckley Township Ohio police chief Mel Wiley. Mr. Gricar discussed the Wiley case at least eight years after it happened; that has been reported. Mr. Gricar was also "fascinated" by another walkaway case, though this was not reported as of yet (and that won't raise my numbers).

Jay Carsey let the key people in his life know he was leaving. Mel Wiley typed a letter to someone saying he was leaving (evidence found on his typewriter which he likely knew the detectives would find) and had some financial issues.

However overall I do see this as a compelling option - especially if no forensic audit has been done on his financials...

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Jay Carsey let the key people in his life know he was leaving. Mel Wiley typed a letter to someone saying he was leaving (evidence found on his typewriter which he likely knew the detectives would find) and had some financial issues.

Wiley's main financial issue was borrowing money just before he disappeared. The letter was never sent. He concocted a story about going swimming to explain why his car would be at the lake, actually telling several people about a nonexistent swim suit sale at K-Mart.

As for other people, two tidbits were recently revealed. Mr. Gricar daughter has not called the Bellefonte Police regarding the investigation since Detective Rickard took over the case. A friend from Harrisburg who meets the description of the "Mystery Woman" was not checked out.

It is very possible that Mr. Gricar did tell someone, who is keeping quiet.

 

[Bobbisangel]

Does anyone know if the cig butts found outside of Ray's car were ever tested for DNA?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Does anyone know if the cig butts found outside of Ray's car were ever tested for DNA?

I think twice, using two different methods. PA was a late comer to collecting DNA on convicted criminals.

 

[OriginalJerseyGirl]

What if it were Lynn Abraham?

She's a bulldog! This case could definitely use some Lynn Abraham!

 

[OriginalJerseyGirl]

2) Motive: There is nothing obvious holding him back from exiting his current situations in a more normal way. It seems to me that people who walkaway are people who feel overwhelmed with responsibilities they do not know how to deal with (or want to deal with).

But if, as J.J. has stated, Patty's family is well-known and well-connected within that small community and Ray is well-known for other obvious reasons, perhaps there's a shame factor. I don't really know how to verbalize it - brain is VERY tired this morning - but it seems to me that Ray was very deeply involved with Patty on some levels that may have made it seem a better option to him to walk away rather than leaving her looking "dumped". Maybe he was looking for a way to leave without leaving her to deal with years of whispers behind her back.

I must admit that I believe that there would have to be much more to the story than the simplified way I explained myself above but I've never been in the mindset to just up and leave everything behind. Therefore, it's all just guessing on my part.

As for the finances, it's been mentioned many times that Ray made a lot of money, spent little as he was very frugal, and didn't have nearly enough money saved for it all to equate. I'm not sure how deeply they looked into the financial situation though.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

She's a bulldog! This case could definitely use some Lynn Abraham!

What if it was Abraham that missing for 12 hours?

 

[OriginalJerseyGirl]

There are people who just want to start a new life. Jay Carsey, a Maryland college president was one. Another was Hinckley Township Ohio police chief Mel Wiley. Mr. Gricar discussed the Wiley case at least eight years after it happened; that has been reported. Mr. Gricar was also "fascinated" by another walkaway case, though this was not reported as of yet (and that won't raise my numbers).

Those are very interesting details however and potentially very significant, IMO.

 

[OriginalJerseyGirl]

What if it was Abraham that missing for 12 hours?

Very good point.

I think that some people have built solid enough reputations to garner a much quicker response than others in the minds of LE. Fair or not, certain people are obviously much less likely to be voluntarily missing as far as missing persons reports go.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

But if, as J.J. has stated, Patty's family is well-known and well-connected within that small community and Ray is well-known for other obvious reasons, perhaps there's a shame factor. I don't really know how to verbalize it - brain is VERY tired this morning - but it seems to me that Ray was very deeply involved with Patty on some levels that may have made it seem a better option to him to walk away rather than leaving her looking "dumped". Maybe he was looking for a way to leave without leaving her to deal with years of whispers behind her back.

There is another factor; if Mr. Gricar walked away, he's now a legend. As of 4/14/05, if someone would asked my who Ray Gricar was, I would have drawn a blank. If he did walk away, he's just proven himself to be a genius that outsmarted several police forces and the sitting DA.

As for the finances, it's been mentioned many times that Ray made a lot of money, spent little as he was very frugal, and didn't have nearly enough money saved for it all to equate. I'm not sure how deeply they looked into the financial situation though.

No forensic audit and nothing going into the distant past, from what I've heard.