PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #4

[OriginalJerseyGirl]

Just to follow up, LE apparently looked at past cases, including recent prison releases, or so I've heard. It was another dead end. Now that doesn't preclude a "slow burn," in Tony Gricar's words; Mr. Gricar had been a prosecutor for about 37 years (about 12 years in Cleveland, about 5 as an ADA in Centre, and over 19 as DA).

The idea of this being a revenge killing, so to speak, has never been one of my personal top opinions of what happened to Ray. As of now, I think that taking off to start a new life is my primary belief. The second likely possibility, IMO, is suicide.

Do we have any further information about the attempt to get information from the laptop? I can't find any current updates on it.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

The idea of this being a revenge killing, so to speak, has never been one of my personal top opinions of what happened to Ray. As of now, I think that taking off to start a new life is my primary belief. The second likely possibility, IMO, is suicide.

Do we have any further information about the attempt to get information from the laptop? I can't find any current updates on it.

I'm Hamlet, Prince of Denmark, when it comes to one theory. I give a very slight edge to walkaway, based on the published stuff. That is followed closely by murder.

Suicide has the problem of no body. I think that every body known to have gone into the Susquehanna since March of 2005 has been found. It's possibly but unlikely. If Mr. Gricar killed himself someplace else, I can't believe they didn't find the body.

Kroll Ontrack hasn't reported it is impossible, so recovering some data still might be possible.

 

[kemo]

Walk-away raises a question, how would Ray get by. There is no evidence that he had any money to live on. If he had waited 8 months, he could have "walked away" and arranged to have a substancial pension check sent to wherever he wanted with privacy laws protecting his where-abouts. There is the possibility that he was "staching" money away over a long period of time. He must have a pretty good income and few expences over the last few years but he would have to have enough to last the rest of his live because he will be eligable for no Social Security and only menial jobs without a Social Security card.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Walk-away raises a question, how would Ray get by. There is no evidence that he had any money to live on. If he had waited 8 months, he could have "walked away" and arranged to have a substancial pension check sent to wherever he wanted with privacy laws protecting his where-abouts. There is the possibility that he was "staching" money away over a long period of time. He must have a pretty good income and few expences over the last few years but he would have to have enough to last the rest of his live because he will be eligable for no Social Security and only menial jobs without a Social Security card.

His public salary was in well in excess of $100,000 for the four years prior to his disappearance; the 2003 figure was $120,000. In 2005, it was $129 K. A close friend, Steve Sloan, said that he should have more money in the bank that the general amount that was reported. As of 1997 it was, pre tax, $105,000

He divorced his second wife (or she him) c. 2000, and they owned a house. It was sold, but I don't know the monetary disposition. He had owned a car prior to the Mini Cooper (not a PT Cruiser as was previously posted). The car was in Ms. Fornicola's name, but he paid for it, in full. While reports say "cash" it seems to have been by cashier's check (there are laws regarding large cash transaction). I don't what, if anything, he got for that.

Even putting away roughly 10% of his after tax income about ($8100 minimum) per year for five years at a relatively low rate of interest (4.5%), he could have had in excess of $50,000, conservatively. Liberally, you can easily multiply that figure by five to seven.

If, just over the last five years prior to his disappearance, Mr. Gricar, a single man who didn't even have to pay rent for the last 14 months that he was in Bellefonte, spent half of his post tax salary just on himself, and put the rest of it in the bank, at a 4% interest rate, and using his lowest base salary, he should have more $290 K in the bank. In all probability, it should be over $300 K. That also assumes that he had zero tax deductions and a very low interest rate.

The public, and than includes me, has never been told the actual amount left behind, but it was reported as just above $100 K.

Please not that the state publishes this information in a yearbook type thing called The Pennsylvania Manual which is my source, unless otherwise noted.

In other words: Either Mr. Gricar, who was described as "frugal," was spending a lot more money than even his closest friends realized, or there is very possibly a large sum of money missing.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Walk-away raises a question, how would Ray get by. He must have a pretty good income and few expences over the last few years but he would have to have enough to last the rest of his live because he will be eligable for no Social Security and only menial jobs without a Social Security card.

I'll add two points.

1. If Mr. Gricar established a new identify, that would include a new SSN.

2. What if he's not in the US? Mr. Gricar had family in Slovenia and had visited the country before he disappeared. I'm told that, among the family photos in his office, were those of his Slovenian family members.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Its pretty hard to erase a hard drive - you have to have special programs and stuff that aren't available to the general public.

Or were they able to get info off the hard drive but are claiming they got nothing so they don't tip off the perps (whether its him or his murderers)?

It was probably in the Susquehanna River for a while (I'd guess from the damage at least 30 days, but possibly 5 months). I don't know if there was an effort to erase it before that (and the first lab couldn't tell). Any data, even the last time the computer was turned on, or if there was an attempt to erase the drive using a program, would be helpful.

Kroll recovered data from a drive that crashed to earth in the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster, so it might be possible.

But to be clear, LE didn't release the results in the Fall of 2005 initially to see if anyone would panic. I probably would suggest that anyone involved with the "tossing" of the laptop should start panicking at this point. Seriously, if the destruction wasn't related to the actual disappearance, it might be time for the "tosser" to call up the Bellefonte Police.

 

[OriginalJerseyGirl]

Thanks for outlining Ray's financial situation so clearly. You brought up things I've been thinking but wasn't organized enough to lay out.

 

[tuppence]

His public salary was in well in excess of $100,000 for the four years prior to his disappearance; the 2003 figure was $120,000. In 2005, it was $129 K. A close friend, Steve Sloan, said that he should have more money in the bank that the general amount that was reported. As of 1997 it was, pre tax, $105,000

He divorced his second wife (or she him) c. 2000, and they owned a house. It was sold, but I don't know the monetary disposition. He had owned a car prior to the Mini Cooper (not a PT Cruiser as was previously posted). The car was in Ms. Fornicola's name, but he paid for it, in full. While reports say "cash" it seems to have been by cashier's check (there are laws regarding large cash transaction). I don't what, if anything, he got for that.

Even putting away roughly 10% of his after tax income about ($8100 minimum) per year for five years at a relatively low rate of interest (4.5%), he could have had in excess of $50,000, conservatively. Liberally, you can easily multiply that figure by five to seven.

If, just over the last five years prior to his disappearance, Mr. Gricar, a single man who didn't even have to pay rent for the last 14 months that he was in Bellefonte, spent half of his post tax salary just on himself, and put the rest of it in the bank, at a 4% interest rate, and using his lowest base salary, he should have more $290 K in the bank. In all probability, it should be over $300 K. That also assumes that he had zero tax deductions and a very low interest rate.

The public, and than includes me, has never been told the actual amount left behind, but it was reported as just above $100 K.

Please not that the state publishes this information in a yearbook type thing called The Pennsylvania Manual which is my source, unless otherwise noted.

In other words: Either Mr. Gricar, who was described as "frugal," was spending a lot more money than even his closest friends realized, or there is very possibly a large sum of money missing.

not that much money to retire on...and with the pension coming up so quickly how does this make sense? What could he be running from that would drive him to give up the future income?

Crazy idea but could he bave been being blackmailed for something? Could explain the lack of money and a desire to disappear.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

First, JerseyGirl, happy to help organize things, at bit.

not that much money to retire on...and with the pension coming up so quickly how does this make sense? What could he be running from that would drive him to give up the future income?

Crazy idea but could he bave been being blackmailed for something? Could explain the lack of money and a desire to disappear.

It could be sufficient. Mr. Gricar was known to be "frugal." A frugal person could live for a while on that kind of money.

I've also made several assumptions, all of which may be wrong:

A. His 2000-01 divorce took his last penny.

B. There were no funds from the house that he owned with his second wife.

C. His car, prior to the Mini, which was considered to be somewhat flashy or hot by his nephew was disposed of without gaining any money.

D. He had no or few tax deductions and earned little interest.

E. He was spending about $40-50 K per year on himself (which is a bit hard without purchasing things of value).

He might very well of ended the divorce with assets mostly intact, for example.

Blackmail presents some problems. First, if something sexual or political, who cares? He's not married, through most of this period he's not involved, and he's not running for reelection. Criminal is a possibility, but considering who he was, and knowing that he had an exemplary record, I frankly don't see it.

Second, unless it would be a very term thing, it should show up. There are limits on cash transactions or $10 K. Anything above that gets reported (Eliot Spitzer is an example, and that was with smaller wire transfers). If someone showed up and said, "Give me $200,000 or I'll talk," it would be very difficult to hide that "payoff" money. Smaller amounts over time would be.

To me, it seems Mr. Gricar should have had more money in the bank/invested. There may be a reasonable explanation to why there isn't. I don't have access to Mr. Gricar's financial records, obviously.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I currently set the odds on what explains the disappearance of Mr. Gricar as:

Walkaway: 45%
Murder: 44%
Suicide: 10%
Something Else: 1%

When I started (excluding "something else"), I gave walkaway, murder, and suicide equal chances.

This is not an example of me being definitive.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

A 'new" development in the case, or, more specifically, one now on the record.

Mr. Bosek is operating a "Just Gricar" blog. Here is part of the first post.

I wish I had kept count of courthouse workers or legal professionals who told me they believe he's out there somewhere. One of his better friends and longtime coworker, Centre County Assistant District Attorney Steve Sloane, said all along he thought Ray is alive and well out there somewhere. Steve's not alone, not by a longshot.

http://community.centredaily.com/?q=node/5851#comment-7497

Mr. Sloane is regarded as Mr. Gricar's best friend.

I now give the odds at:

Walkaway: 46%
Murder: 44%
Suicide: 9%
Something Else: 1%

There is something else that I'm aware of, but not yet reported, that would lead me to increase the odds on walkaway.

 

[OriginalJerseyGirl]

There is something else that I'm aware of, but not yet reported, that would lead me to increase the odds on walkaway.

Can we expect that something to be reported anytime soon?

 

[tuppence]

Blackmail presents some problems. First, if something sexual or political, who cares? He's not married, through most of this period he's not involved, and he's not running for reelection. Criminal is a possibility, but considering who he was, and knowing that he had an exemplary record, I frankly don't see it.

Good point.

 

[christine2448]

I have gotten many alerts today on Ray....story is out there...but in what light?

Morganelli Update.
[SIZE=-1]Capitol Ideas with John L. Micek, PA - Sep 17, 2008[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]... candidate John Morganelli, in which he blasted Republican AG Tom Corbett for dropping the ball in the hunt for missing Centre County DA Ray Gricar. ...[/SIZE]
Morganelli vows to help Gricar case
[SIZE=-1]Centre Daily Times, PA - Sep 17, 2008[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]Former Centre County District Attorney Ray Gricar was last heard from as he was driving through Brush Valley on April 15, 2005. ...[/SIZE]
AG candidate Morganelli proposes cold case unit
[SIZE=-1]Pocono Record, PA - Sep 16, 2008[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]"It's unfortunate that Mr. Morganelli is politicizing the disappearance of Ray Gricar for partisan purposes," Harley said. According to Harley, Corbett's ...[/SIZE]
Attorney general candidate talks Gricar case, proposes cold case unit
[SIZE=-1]Centre Daily Times, PA - Sep 16, 2008[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]... today appeared at the Centre County Courthouse to talk about the disappearance of former county District Attorney Ray Gricar, and his own proposal to ...[/SIZE]
Dem. Pa. AG candidate proposes cold case unit
[SIZE=-1]The Express Times - LehighValleyLive.com, PA - Sep 16, 2008[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]And the Northampton County district attorney says the first case he would assign to that unit would be the disappearance of Ray Gricar, the former Centre ...[/SIZE]
AG Candidate Talks Gricar Case
[SIZE=-1]WTAJ, PA - Sep 16, 2008[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]”The Ray Gricar case is an example of how local prosecutors could use assistance of a case like this from the state Attorney General's office,” Morganelli, ...[/SIZE]

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Can we expect that something to be reported anytime soon?

I hope so; I'd like to see it in print first.

I will say this: In terms of the odds, I would raise walkaway by one point and lower murder by one point, when it comes out.

It deals with the second witness who claims to seen Mr. Gricar in Wilkes-Barre, on the evening of Monday, 4/18/05 (he was last seen in Lewisburg on 4/15). It was in a bar on Highland Park Blvd., which is less than a mile from I-80 (it's a bit over a hour northeast from Lewisburg and I-81 connects to I-80, which is about 5 miles north of Lewisburg).

The first witness was a bartender who served the man. The bartender was close to the man's face to get a look while serving him. The bartender was 100% certain Mr. Gricar, and further identified him from a video shown. He may have identified the voice. This has been reported in Post Gazette.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05120/496950-85.stm

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05120/496817-156.stm

I'm under the impression that this was not the witness the called LE with the tip. The newspaper said that the police went to the bar and found the second witness after a call from someone else and located the witness.

I'm guessing that the second witness contacted the PSP or BPD. I'm told that he was not from the Wilkes-Barre area (and not from Centre County) and that he would be the type to have MEGA-credibility. I've heard, second hand of the account, and it would fit with someone trying to somewhat disguise his identity. They talked for about 5 minutes, so it wasn't just walking past the guy on a street.

Now, we have two witnesses that put Mr. Gricar in the same place, a bar in Wilkes-Barre, at the same time, the evening of 4/18/05. Both are sure and both got more than a fleeting glimpse of him. Both may have identified his voice. While the bartender is probably credible, the second witness has major credibility, on a number of levels. This is what would move my numbers.

It was also revealed over the last two days that LE never checked out an old girlfriend, from Harrisburg, but originally from the area, who was initially thought to be the "Lewisburg Mystery Woman." That doesn't figure into the odds. The is a potentially a lot more to that story.

Kroll is still working, as of yesterday, on the hard drive which means that it's not hopeless and might mean that they are retrieving data. That's not in the odds either.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Good point.

Tuppence, the reason I can go through some of these things very quickly is because I mulled them over in my mind for six months prior to starting to post anywhere on the case. I've had to abandon so many theories it is not funny.

I had a great one involving Ms. Fornicola for about two months until it it collapsed under the weight of evidence.

BTW: Keep asking. The theories I can't knock down easily may be the right one. I operate under trial and error (with much more error than I'd like).

 

[OriginalJerseyGirl]

It was also revealed over the last two days that LE never checked out an old girlfriend, from Harrisburg, but originally from the area, who was initially thought to be the "Lewisburg Mystery Woman." That doesn't figure into the odds. The is a potentially a lot more to that story.

That's quite an interesting detail. Do you believe that there is a reason why certain potential witnesses and/or leads haven't been checked out thoroughly or do you think that, overall, they have been, and that it just appears otherwise?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by J. J. in Phila It was also revealed over the last two days that LE never checked out an old girlfriend, from Harrisburg, but originally from the area, who was initially thought to be the "Lewisburg Mystery Woman." That doesn't figure into the odds. The is a potentially a lot more to that story.

That's quite an interesting detail. Do you believe that there is a reason why certain potential witnesses and/or leads haven't been checked out thoroughly or do you think that, overall, they have been, and that it just appears otherwise?

Mr. Bosak noted in his blog today that, while the person has not been publicly disclosed, it is known to both LE and the press. I have even found an Internet reference to Mr. Gricar and the Harrisburg woman knowing each other, from the mid-1990's. If it's to the point where I've heard about it, it's not unknown.

Now, I or anyone else, do not know if the "Harrisburg Woman" was the "Lewisburg Mystery Woman," only that initially a number of people close to the case thought she was, from the description. (That's why I won't identify her; there is no proof that she was there.)

The police, at the time, were just not as thorough as they should have been, which is putting it mildly. That has changed, from what I've heard. The current detective handling the case, Matt Rickard, is more thorough. The new Bellefonte Police Chief, Shawn Weaver, is more thorough.

If you are asking if there was some sort of conspiracy involving LE, no.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I hope this doesn't violate policy, but here is a link to Mr. Bosak's blog:

http://community.centredaily.com/?q=blog/2

He is a wealth of information, generally friendly, is happy to answer questions, and even knows my real identity (which is incredibly boring). He's helped out the case and open to pursuing things; I know some of what he's done and he's truly an excellent investigative reporter. He even checked me out, with my permission. In the last four days, he's probably dropped more bombshells to the case than I ever had. He's a virtual encyclopedia on the Gricar case. And he cares about it being solved.

We do not always agree, but I have great deal respect for him. He'll answer your questions if he can.

(No, I don't work for the newspaper. No he's not my uncle. No, he doesn't mail me a dollar every time I say something nice about him.)

 

[tuppence]

Thanks for the link. The blog is interesting. I do not remember the mystery woman from the case when it happened and I was originally following it. I need to go back and read about that. Is it certain that it was him with her?