Possible Victim: Shannan Gilbert

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I am doubtful this is what we're looking at. I raise it again to suggest that if these killings involve a scene related serial killer, they would lurk on the fringes of the scene as opposed to being publicly identifiable (i.e., vendetta guy).

I agree because mitigating his risk is topmost in LISK's head. He's way too careful.

And he appears to find his victims using a different method of fishing entirely. He's alone on the far side of a lake casting his line; persistent until something bites. He has no interest in tangling lines with others on a crowded dock fishing in a stocked pond.

(Sorry, we're having fish tacos tonight so this was the first analogy that came to mind.)
 
BBM.

I have long held the theory that serial killers can hide in plain sight in the BDSM scene due to the nature of a culture that promotes tolerance towards some of the "edgier" violent themes. What I refer to as "Outliers" (i.e., those who make up less than 1% of the scene). And, in this case I suggested a possible scenario, back in 2011, excerpted here to save some time.

Outlier

The outlier frequents the sex scene where he identifies and cases his marks. This sort would also follow his victims after the party, at which point he abducts them. The biggest problem with this scenario is, how does he get them to come with them? While he could use a cop ruse, I'm envisioning more of a blitz attack. Imo, that sort of thing would fit more with his psyche... the overpowering bit.

The outlier is pretty much non-descript. In other words, those in the scene rarely realize he exists. One might even characterize him as a chameleon but he's not that either. If the killer turns out to be the outlier, people in the scene will remember him after the fact. Outliers don't truly fit in the scene. They aren't really part of it. They're just there bc they have a better chance at going undetected. Importantly, the outlier is a sexual sadist and they regularly engage in illegal and often sexually violent criminal behavior. Hence, their choice for the scene for their cover.

In this scenario, and in the context of this case, the guy will try to keep his victims alive for a protracted period. Importantly, murder may not be his end goal. They could have succumbed to whatever torture he visited upon them. That, or, if/when he grew bored, he murdered them and disposed of their bodies. Since all four of the GB4 died from homicidal asphyxiation, specifically, strangulation, and since it appears a garrote was used ( link ), it is possible this guy is into breath play ( link ) and that they eventually died as a result of that. His motive for calling the families is to prolong the charge he got out of torturing and murdering the girls, by visiting pain upon their families. As with the rent-a-cop, the outlier views them as less than human. But again, his underlying motive differs.​

That said, while I think the outlier theory is plausible, as a few "solved" serial cases have born out,I am doubtful this is what we're looking at. I raise it again to suggest that if these killings involve a scene related serial killer, they would lurk on the fringes of the scene as opposed to being publicly identifiable (i.e., vendetta guy).

I've recently been reading about convicted murderer Graham Dwyer (Ireland), and also Todd Kohlhepp (US, South Carolina). Assuming LISK is a sexual sadist, I think it's easy to believe he has an anonymous fantasy playground (so to speak) within online BDSM communities, as this would enables him to be a participating "outlier".

More info on Dwyer

http://www.vice.com/read/an-insane-bdsm-murder-trial-is-coming-to-a-close-in-ireland-234

http://www.independent.ie/irish-new...t-im-glad-justice-has-been-done-31101028.html

ETA: Maybe this should be in the "psych markers" thread??
 
What do you think about the way instances are worded. For example, many of times police were able to pick up on spouses who killed their missing spouse by how they spoke of them in the past tense before any facts were out that they were dead.

Shannon was saying that they are trying to kill me instead of they are going to kill me. This is what leads me to believe that there were more circumstances and actions on their part then merely Shannon imaging it.

Also Brewer, when questioned by the press said, I am not guilty of this one. Perhaps he does not feel his actions leading her to die out in the bush and her being in such fear to push herself past the brink of cutting her feet and plowing through a painful difficult marsh, they estimate was a 1/4-1/2 mile journey, was his fault because he had not manually finished the job.

There is a 48 hours segment on you tube that has two men following her path and the cracking hard sounds of the foliage under their thick boots are loud crunches. Her feet must have been really mangled and torn by the end of her plight. This goes to show me she was in great fear of her life.
 
How could Shannons case be related to Lisk if she ran from her own driver and every household that was trying to help her?
 
How could Shannons case be related to Lisk if she ran from her own driver and every household that was trying to help her?

There are many possibilities:

Driver in on it.

Drink was drugged and she did not pass out or lose dexterity as expected.

She was manually strangled, dropped to floor, the killer thinking she was dead, but as in many case of strangulation, she woke up and dialed police in a really confused state, brain messed up from lack of oxygen.

Who would of ever thought the poor boy with a hole drilled in his head out running and yelling for help from the police would be escorted by the police back to his killer's apartment, Dahmer?
 
..about something I cannot wrap my head around. There is a "before SG" and an "after SG", here is why:

Barnes and Barthelemy disappeared in 2007 and 2009 respectively. Both had their cell phones with them. In both cases someone received a call from the possible killer (Barnes friend, Barthelemy sister, cell phones pinged).

Then Shannon Gilbert disappears after making her 911 cell phone call on May 1st of 2010.

Waterman and Costello disappeared in June of 2010 and in September of 2010 respectively. They did not take their cell phones/ purse ( or friend's cell pone/Costello).

So, it seems like LISK learned out of that "pinging mistake" (which in my view is a bigger mistake,than just changing the MO, so that the victim will not be able to use her cell phone, if she was to bring one) and he was either involved or he followed the case of SG closely. He had already dumped at least 2 bodies (G4) at Gilgo Beach.

Why would he proceed and dump 2 more bodies in 2010 next to Barnes and Barthelemy? When he made that phone call to Barthelemy's sister and the media reported it weeks later, he abruptly stopped the calls and must have noticed the mistake. Same with the pings on Barnes' phone. He could not have possibly known, if LE was closing in on him in any way. Then they are still searching around Oak Beach for SG and he is brazen enough to dump not one but two more bodies??

Something isn't right with that.

Also, here is an interesting Backpage Escort Advice Blog (it's not on Backpage and therefore safe to read) from April 2011 regarding cellphones and how to use them as timers (escorts and Johns) among else..

http://backpageescorts.blogspot.com/

-Nin
 
No its not, Megans mother got around to saying Megan had her phone with her. Someone pretending to be NYPD kept calling her job. He tried to get Lorraines cell # from her co-workers. Lorraine claims she never spoke to the caller. I guess mum would be the word if she did. The calls stopped after the bodies were discovered.
 
NYPD was never on Megans case. She disappeared on Long Island. She reported the calls to the SCPD.
 
Shannon was a victim of a killer but the question is was it LISK or a random killer who crossed her path after she was last seen by her driver and the residents of Oak Bay the night she ran from JB's house? If we believe its was LISK, then we have to believe that LISK is a resident of Oak bay because if he wasn't it would have been extremely strange for LISK to be wandering randomly around Oak Bay the night Shannon was running around the community in a state of panic.
If Shannon's killer was a person other than LISK, it still would have to be a resident of Oak Bay who else would have been out wandering around Oak Bay that night?? The police have said Shannon was not murdered instead Shannon ran into the marsh in a drug induced panic and threw off her clothes and discarded her personal belongings before she drowned face up in the marsh. Shannon had good reason to be hysterical, she saw or overheard something at JBs house that made her believe "they" were going to kill her and she did end up dead. Speaking as a victim and a survivor of a violent assault very similar to Shannon's experience I know that a panicked person will be in such a blind state of panic that they seem completely irrational when they interact with people who are not in that state. When I realized my assailant was planning to kill me a panic overcame me and when his attack was interrupted by two good Samaritans who were coming to my aide I ran away from my protectors in a hysterical blind panic as I didn't believe they could protect me and I also believed they didn't fully understand the danger I was in. I ran into a berry field looking for a place to hide and to put as much distance between myself and my attacker as possible. At no time did I ever think of removing my clothing or throwing away my personal belongings.I wonder if a man had been found in Shannon's position would the police say that he had thrown off his clothing and discarded his personal belongings in a state of hysteria and simply drowned? Shannon was a victim of murder, its time for the police to take her case more seriously instead of writing it off as a case of female hysteria.
 
I lean towards Shannan's death being an accident.It's this one detail that bothers me the 911 call.I can only come up with one explanation:They overheard someone.Someone they were told to back off on.
 
And that's the way Suffolk PD wants it.Stalled and then forgotten.Passed into urban myth until they get annoyed by the various stories and are made to actually investigate.
 
I lean towards Shannan's death being an accident.It's this one detail that bothers me the 911 call.I can only come up with one explanation:They overheard someone.Someone they were told to back off on.

They need to release the 911 tape. If they do not, then they are hiding/protecting something. It is causing people to discredit them, not to mention making them look incompetent. The people pay their salaries to SERVE and PROTECT.


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Shannon was a victim of a killer but the question is was it LISK or a random killer who crossed her path after she was last seen by her driver and the residents of Oak Bay the night she ran from JB's house? If we believe its was LISK, then we have to believe that LISK is a resident of Oak bay because if he wasn't it would have been extremely strange for LISK to be wandering randomly around Oak Bay the night Shannon was running around the community in a state of panic.
If Shannon's killer was a person other than LISK, it still would have to be a resident of Oak Bay who else would have been out wandering around Oak Bay that night?? The police have said Shannon was not murdered instead Shannon ran into the marsh in a drug induced panic and threw off her clothes and discarded her personal belongings before she drowned face up in the marsh. Shannon had good reason to be hysterical, she saw or overheard something at JBs house that made her believe "they" were going to kill her and she did end up dead. Speaking as a victim and a survivor of a violent assault very similar to Shannon's experience I know that a panicked person will be in such a blind state of panic that they seem completely irrational when they interact with people who are not in that state. When I realized my assailant was planning to kill me a panic overcame me and when his attack was interrupted by two good Samaritans who were coming to my aide I ran away from my protectors in a hysterical blind panic as I didn't believe they could protect me and I also believed they didn't fully understand the danger I was in. I ran into a berry field looking for a place to hide and to put as much distance between myself and my attacker as possible. At no time did I ever think of removing my clothing or throwing away my personal belongings.I wonder if a man had been found in Shannon's position would the police say that he had thrown off his clothing and discarded his personal belongings in a state of hysteria and simply drowned? Shannon was a victim of murder, its time for the police to take her case more seriously instead of writing it off as a case of female hysteria.

I don't believe she pulled her clothes off either, a man tried to abduct me and I ran screaming my head off the whole way, which led to everyone coming out of their house to check on the commotion. You brain takes over & says "get away now" whatever it takes, do not undress do not take your shoes off, don't look back just go! Also, how the heck do you drown face-up. They are guessing at everything.


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SG is the one that puzzles me the most, for a long time I was flitting between a victim of LISK, a victim of someone/persons unknown, or just being an accident. For one thing, she's not a victim of the Manorville Butcher, it's not his MO.

I'm very much leaning towards an accident, although I have no hard evidence to back this up other than what's already been written. Here's my 'theory' to events that night and it's just a theory like much else on here.

- SG goes to JB's house
- SG either takes drugs of her own free will OR she is mickey finned once at JB's - Now this is a reason why JB would be quiet and shady if the latter.
- During the trick - JB gets a little rough, hands around the neck etc. This would explain the later report to finding pressure to her windpipe, but initially not disclosed on the official coroner report.
- The drugs wearing off, SG seeing double, triple, quadruple whatever - JBs hands on her neck, freaks the hell out. She thinks multiple people are trying to kill her
- She calls 911, which for all we know could have her just pressed 1 or whatever for speed dial.
- She goes out the house, not able to focus misidentifies MP for someone else.
- Runs into the marshlands never to be seen again
- Expires from hypothermia not drowning as she was found face up!
- No drugs found in her system due to time elapsed between expiry to discovery - pretty sure all trace would be gone by then

Just a theory
 
I just watched this bit of news again. How can police say they don't think SG killing is related to the GB4 killings? If they have no leads and no suspects how can you state that?
 
I don't believe she pulled her clothes off either, a man tried to abduct me and I ran screaming my head off the whole way, which led to everyone coming out of their house to check on the commotion. You brain takes over & says "get away now" whatever it takes, do not undress do not take your shoes off, don't look back just go! Also, how the heck do you drown face-up. They are guessing at everything.


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completely agree. if you feel someone is going to get you, you don't stop to remove your pants and in her case, her jeans. You would have to stop and if you are running thru a wet area then you have even a harder time with wet jeans. Given her line of work, they were probably snug as well. I also feel you wouldnt throw down your phone either. Its your only lifeline at this point. Is it possible she was drug by her ankles by someone and her jeans were getting stuck on everything so they decided to remove them?
 
If her death was an accident then it was caused by the fact she was trying to get away from people, "They are trying to kill me", who wanted her dead. Maybe "They" were planning to kill her but then realized the driver was waiting for her and they had to abort the plan. Maybe the "they" was PH and JB? There are too many red flags with PH, his connections to Suffolk county PD, his fathers book and the reference there in it to "*advertiser censored*" and how they cant be reformed, the fact that Shannon's body was basically found behind his house and finally and his ridiculous reasons why he called Shannon's mother. The police need to press PH harder but they probably don't want to press JB or PH because if they do, what would those two say about who attended the alleged parties at JB"s house that involved prostitutes and drugs .Were member of Suffolk county government or PD officers present at some of these parties? Could this be the reason why the police have dragged their feet on the Shannon Gilbert and LISK investigations?
 
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