Here's a sketch of what I'm thinking. It's not finished but I'd like to invite discussion sooner rather than later. If I've missed something vital that completely undermines it, I'd rather know now and divert my efforts! Equally, it still needs some refining so I'm hoping a bit of 'crowd sleuthing' will speed this up!
Witness testimony analysis 2
Some key points and assumptions it makes:
1. The earlier sounds that the Stipps hear are Reeva slamming the toilet door three times as she struggles with OP to close and lock it (see below)
2. The Stipps see the bathroom light is on at this point. This is damning to OP's version.
3. The Johnson call time is wrong. Burger's phone is fast (see below). The police could prove this but perhaps didn't recognise the need to
4. Burger and Johnson hear OP mimic Reeva's cries for help (mocking, sounded embarrassed). They don't hear his later shout for help because they have come inside and are talking
5. The trigger for OP firing the gun is the loud click made by an iPhone 4 when you enter your Passcode (thanks to Nick van der Leek and Lisa Salinger for this) because she is going to call the police
6. OP uses the bat after the gun, as he says
7. Nobody hears the cricket bat striking the door (the Stipps have also come inside to await Security and are talking)
8. Dr Stipp sees OP moving in the bathroom at a time OP says he is
I'm out this evening so may not have time to discuss anything until either later (UK time) or tomorrow.
The phone usage argument remains unchanged, although the precise logistics for the argument that EvdM hears on and off for an hour may change. The argument fits better if it is on the front side of OP's house (e.g. nearest EvdM) for her, and only her, to hear it. The fact that the security guards miss it is irrelevant as it's intermittent. She only hears Reeva because OP is keeping his voice down but Reeva isn't. She's confronting him. I'm wondering if the open door may relate to this period ... but would OP be downstairs on his stumps? The barging of the bedroom door follows when Reeva runs upstairs (with his phone?) and locks the bedroom door before running to the bathroom after he pushes it open.
A couple of other points:
Toilet door slamming
I think OP was convincing when he argued that Reeva wouldn't have answered him when she was in the toilet because she was scared. He points Nel to a previous episode in her life. In his version, she wouldn't know what was happening outside the toilet and wouldn't have risked giving herself away. I think that is totally plausible (even though Nel doesn't). But what is not therefore plausible in this version is Reeva slamming the door after he has been screaming and shouting: she would have closed it quietly. It was this that put me on to thinking about door slams being what the Stipps heard. Does OP use real events: the door slamming, pulling on the handle, barging the door, but in a different context?
Johnson call time
Johnson provided the time in his statement from the phone itself and subsequently voiced his concerns to Roux about its accuracy by asking where the reference to times was taken from.
Roux: We have the time
Johnson: Mlady, can I ask the reference to the times, were they taken from my statement or were they taken from a central time server which I would assume the cell phone provider would have available?
Roux: Mr Johnson, Im curious about it, because you explain to us, and we know your cell phone data, we know thats the central data, we know you put it in your statement. You know you would not lie to the policeman and say it was 3:16 and the duration 58 seconds. You said to us that you checked it. Thats why Im saying to you, and we received ... let me help you, we received from the police the time calls were made by the accused. The exact time calls.
Johnson: Thank you
The exact times calls were made by the accused?! How does this help? Johnson has been duped by Roux into believing the time of his call has been verified but it was never corroborated against any other objective evidence (Strubenkop call log or the cell phone provider's records).
