This is going to be long. I recommend you take your coffee.
There is so much botch and the case spans such a broad period of time, any theory is destined to be shaky. For the below theory of mine which is built on mind manure, I had to chalk off SG. Weird accident! Even writing that gives me a gut wrenching feeling.
I dont know much about the legal retention time for 911 calls (90 days or so?) and how much this period can be extended, under what circumstances, but based on the current official version of the events, I understand the death is ruled to be an accident. Did Mr. John Ray file any action for a subpoena? Or an injunction for ensuring the audio is preserved? This voice in me says "No." If he had done it, he would rub it on our faces when he got the air time. I dont mean to offend anybody, but this is the impression I got from him. His website was a particular disappointment for me.
His website was a disappointment for you? Then wait till you talk to him on a phone :floorlaugh: Till then, you probably have no idea about the meaning of the term "being disappointed by him". The guy is a mere publicity hound.
The big question; (asked by several others in the forum) how come the renewed S&R efforts (Aug 2010, Dec 2010, Apr 2011) were concentrated on the opposite direction of where SG is last seen?
To understand the strange search patterns of the SCPD and partially also NCPD, you have to go back some decades. They have a long sad history in SK cases there, and even some of the worst glitches were basically NYPD glitches, SCPD took the brunch of the critic. Those old stories implanted some kind of paranoid setting in the brain of every higher brass who served or will ever serve in SCPD like: "We don't look where we know what we already missed to long, but we search in places where we hope to find nothing but can always argue, it was some kind of logical to look there" ... like along the beaches, along the access roads, in public park areas where 30-40 years before someone dropped bodies ... such places. Since this behavior is implanted, it is not even conscious, I think. Rather it's a reflex coming from a sub-conscious wiring, kind of a negative Pavlov effect. But hey, that's only my theory!
I wonder what was the condition of AC when her body was recovered. She's dumped in September (As my theory goes below, maybe to the end of the month) and found after autumn. A closed burlap bag could severely hinder the blowfly/maggot action. I dont think the burlap bags were tied up, but I still wonder her condition when she was found.
Given the heat of an Indian Summer, they would have probably an intact skeleton, but more would make me wonder.
I prefer to think based on the possible MOs, instead of the drive behind the behavior. People use the term "think like a killer" and I used to find some insight in that, until I read about Edmund Kemper. Fellows, a normal person cant think like a killer. Until the killer is caught and the motives, triggers are clearly set forth, I say trying to explain the MO is the best.
Well, I didn't find Edmund Kemper that hard. A bit thinking around a corner maybe. But then, "thinking like a killer" is anyway not the right term, I think. It's more simulating what the killer felt. Kind of making him some kind of lab rat.
Why I partially intervene here has a simple reason: His MO is formed by what he needs. What he needs is origin of his behavior. Which means, by understanding what him drives, we can understand where he will go and get ahead of him. But once more, that is only my theory!
I'm surmising a theory below, but it stands on glass heels. Any blow will shatter it down. Because without the 911 call audio, everything is speculation. So, let's speculate.
I read the whole post before I started to answer. You are aware, that part of the "glass heels" are caused by some facts, we effectively know, and which at least partially, would support your theory, but weren't used in this post?
SCOTT KIMBALL MAURY TRAVIS HYBRID THEORY (GB4 ONLY)
"I don`t think it`s a coincidence that four bodies ended up in this area."
Police Commissioner Richard Dormer
:floorlaugh: Now, he needed a little time to come to that conclusion
I'm going with Peter Brendt on the race. The perp is black, somebody connected (i.e. laid eyes) to the very first victim MBB through a third person by jail time, geographical proximity, kinship, gang membership etc. It is a possibility that the perp is the person who mugged her. Simply, he mugged Maureen, pondered awhile and concluded that he's going to be caught and lose face to the person through whom he found out about MBB, he went back, found Maureen and killed her. He knows Maureen, but she doesnt know him.
A normal mugger killing somebody doesn't build clustered dump sites. Unless, he would be an SK in the making anyway. But the other part of this idea is interesting, because it's based on non-sexual motives. We don't know what exactly was spoken in the phone calls to Amanda, Melissa Barthelmy's sister, but we know, he talked about sexual things, he did to Melissa. But that is the only time, sex really comes up in this case. So we believe often, this killer is a white sexual sadist because HE told Amanda that. And since most psychopaths are also pathological liars, the probability is much higher, he lied about that than not.
This person somehow comes across MW and MB through same/similar connections.
The fact that the girls are all from a compact vicinity, pushes me to link up with the Scott Kimball case. Perp sees the girls, wants them for himself.
Probably not "somehow". Most prostitutes working in NYC have some connections to the area between Hell's Kitchen and Port Authority. MBB rented a hotel room there. The private clubs of the BDSM scene are there and so on. In a way, it would be like window-shopping for the killer in this area. He must feel pretty comfortable there, which also explains, why his NY phone calls came from there or the vicinity, as it looks.
Not a charming person, has a timid look. Height medium/tall, well built. Age bracket, as of MBB's disappearance in 2007 is 25-30 (Perhaps closer to 30, for giving enough window to JT). Not a kill addict. Simply can duck for months. Sexually driven and killing is just destroying the witness.
Funny, but I come to the same age, including the additional "but probably closer to 30", but for entirely different reasons. To build up this signature, he needed time. He is controlled. That means, he is older than a hotshot 20-25 year old.
I don't think, he is merely sexual driven. The dump site is more a trophy yard, in which the single victim has no meaning but the whole has symbolic value. That gives him some mission-driven touch. But then, this is based on the dump site and the interpretation of the dump site is obviously subject to personal experience and preference of signature aspects. In my experience, most sexual driven SKs creating revisitable dump sites, create them to relive a sexual act, which includes a wide variety of acts from masturbation till necrophilia. Which is the reason, to not place the bodies in sight of a road. Someone who places four bodies along a road doesn't plan on such acts and that is contradictory to a primary sexual motivation.
Although MB's family lawyer refers to acts of violence, I think these are acts that dont cause serious bleeding. Burlap is not watertight and I presume a truck is involved in transportation. So, I say no stabbing, no mutilation. Girls may have been kept awhile but the bodies (perhaps rinsed) are quickly dumped. After the dumping operation, the truck is ready to do anything (go to work, park outdoors, pass through police blockades etc.) without requiring a thorough wash.
Add to this, that a burlap bundle or something wrapped in burlap in the bed of a construction truck wouldn't cause questions, while a BLOODY bundle certainly would. Add also that humiliating, repeated raping and controlling of the victim are pretty exhausting acts also for the unsub. So at some point, he will be exhausted and that's when he ends the game. Something around 72 hours to keep them, then kill them and dump them after a short nap. But then, this is only my theory, or at least it was till you said something similar.
I respect Gus Goletti. He's a decent, smart man. Dave Schaller is free from suspicion in my mind. Rest of the personage that cross our eyes in this in this case is a joke.
Well, Schaller did what he did and that was at least supporting prostitution. So, he has no reason to lie, he sounds in this matter credible, that makes him free from suspicion in the murder case.
Gus Coletti was for me never a suspect. I think, he came only under suspicion on WS when the need to construct conspiracy theories arised because everything, we actually know pointed out, we have to separate SG from LISK.
Erin Moriarity's questions. Oh, boy!
:floorlaugh:
MP testifies "I slept in the SUV", while the fact is he talked six times with Shannan throughout the night and he gets a "Flying Colors Certificate" for this. And we are trying to theorize something that makes sense.
Funny thing here is, he obviously didn't sleep, but LE appeared to know that pretty early because they found, he had played some stupid online game on his cell while waiting in the car. I don't have those articles at hand, but I have to look for them again.
So technically, and till I got jumped from someone, who doesn't want to look for the early articles by him-/herself, we know a lot more than just his "I was asleep testimony". We know, he was in the car for at least some of the time and we know, he was with that SUV later looking for SG because Coletti saw him. What we DON'T HAVE is a connection to the GB4 though.
I dont see Dormer as an evil, corrupt official. I see him as a sweet old man.
Can't say "sweet" I don't know him in person. But for sure, an old man, way in over his head with this case from the first minute on.
SCPD holds back a lot of information but I dont feel they are sure of what to hide and what to publicize.
What I said about Dormer, it's pretty valid for the whole SCPD, In over their head and therefore over-cautious and rather dragging thier feet insted of making steps.
Dormer says; all the victims are asphyxiated. Dude, you looked at the bones you deducted asphyxiation. That's cool!
http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobil...03?_=8deda5a8117c871c8fb9861137dd50db46b71568
A killer does not ASPHYXIATE, a killer smothers, chokes, drowns, strangles.
As a matter of fact, he could say that, if all of the victims had for example broken hyoid bones. With manual strangulation, it doesn't happen always, but with ligature strangulation, it's pretty the normal thing that happens.
Spota says; The similarities in the disposal of their bodies and other VERY CRITICAL FORENSIC EVIDENCE...
http://legis.suffolkcountyny.gov/clerk/cmeet/ps/2011/PS121511.pdf
I infer: The bodies (GB4) were left intact, they have ligatures on, ligature may not be a rope, it may be a wire. But I dont understand why this info is kept from the public.
I feel Spota is lavish with the word "critical". In my standards "critical" ranges from ligatures made of a traceable material, to a tie with the initials of the perp on it. Or Spota refers to any other kind of evidence found on AC? The question again; what was the condition of the body? I am assuming AC's bones were intact, perhaps certain tissues of her body or more. Fresh bones would show clear impacts of stabbing.
Stabbing causes bleeding. We agreed earlier, this isn't likely. I think, we have to consider here an additional fact: Spota still tries to get Dormer's old job. Words like "critical" could be more aimed to convince than describing a real fact.
It's not much probable to have a stabbing with no bone involvement. If her body/bones are "intact", it means in terms of violence he still is in the early stages, didnt feel the need to go the extra miles of deviance. But looking at the short period of time between Megan and Amber, it can be said that the sex addict is evolving into a kill addict. Possible impotence issues can be considered, related with age, heavy smoking, workplace chemicals etc., like I said we can only work on mind manure instead of solid facts.
There are a number of SK types, that escalate mostly via their kill frequency. You can easy see that in old cases: You paint the accumulated number of victims along an y-axis, the time along the x-axis of a coordinate system. With most psychopaths, you will get a kind of hyperbolic graph up till the point, his kill frequency is limited by technical reasons, like running out of victims or just not enough time to hunt even more. So this is not necessarily a change in what drives him, but "normal" psychopathic behavior.
The perp is connected to construction business, not with serious qualifications but with skill on a certain task. (Perhaps waterproofing) He's not a resident, but somehow used the Ocean Parkway for business extensively and he directly observed the functional value of the dumping site. Perhaps enjoyed a night with a hooker in the place.
Since carpenters, people who build driveways and landscapers have big overlaps between them, the project he worked on could involve more than one task.
Worked in a kind of long project in the area. There are a lot of homes, recreational sites, jetties around. I believe he worked in an outdoor construction project (a swimming pool, a jetty etc.) over a noteworthy period of time, like a month or so.
Google 40°35'39.93", 73°30'36.76"
Nothing related, just an eye catching example. What is this?
One example of such kind of long term construction jobs is the "Robert Moses Causeway Rehabilitation Project", spread over a long a period of time with intermittent stages, which might hint for the dates of the abductions.
How about when Oak Beach was built/extended? Construction workers worked there for a year or two.
Interesting thing, I come across with the descriptions "in burlap bags" and "wrapped in burlap". These are two different things. Below is a use of burlap for waterproofing concrete. This is burlap cloth not burlap bag.
http://gluedideas.com/content-colle...pecifications-for-Waterproofing-Concrete.html
I understand the bodies are put in burlap bags, not wrapped in burlap
http://www.maxim.com/true-crime/long-island-murder-mystery
In fact, most sources say "wrapped". The thing with the "bags" appeared to me always as something, one journalist copied from the one before.
Somebody asked about the logistics of that in the forum. The answer is yes, there are large size burlap bags, or we have bodies tied up to fit into standard bags. My special thanks goes to SCPD here. We cant be sure of any single thing.
There were from the time, the GB4 were found some pics of the scene and it appeared to me, the body positions would have been stratched. So no folding and binding to make them fit in a standard bag.
I believe the Craiglist Killer moniker is a shallow attribution. Media is missing the fact that "online escorting" is the new industry standard. I guess this is the fifth CLK they named. Media people are rushing too quick to pin a moniker.
I think, they just ran out of creativity. I call the guy on my website just Long Island II and that works as good as any media warname (I count Rifkin still as Long Island I).
Yes, the girls are on Craiglist and other sites (I found the actual ad of MBB, not giving here to avoid enormous hits, perhaps the police is monitoring. Let's not create extra difficulty for their work)
As far as I know there is no certain indication that he picked "all" girls through Craigslist. That explains why LE - hoping they did their job correctly - failed to find an IP lead. AC may be the one and only actual Craiglist victim. A step in MO.
Technically not even for ALC, it's actually proven, he picked her from Craigslist.
The perp probably did some time in jail for a petty crime, in the bracket from July 9, 2007 (MBB) and July 12, 2009 (MW), after the jail time he evolved into a professional mugger/robber.
This is only to explain the gap in 2008. But if you look at those graphs, I talked about earlier, you see, in the early phases a lot of SKs had years between kills. And since this guy is actually only at the East Coast for 3-4 months peryear, how many did he kill somewhere else?
After the MB taunting experience, which is claimed to be halted by the perp after a local news coverage may corroborate his proximity he must have been intrigued into the significance of cell phones and gathered some information on how even cell phones with no GPS gimmicks can be used for geolocation. That may be the key to his preference of "make'em leave the phones". This also explains a gap between MB and MW. He simply observed if anybody is coming after him. (May be away from his residence during this period)
If he had so much fun on the phone, he would have repeated it. On the other hand, if the calls served a hidden purpose, and he thought, the purpose was reached, he didn't repeat it. He didn't repeat it, so I still think, those calls served a purpose, like selling to the gullible, he is what he is not: a drunk white dude.
Also another issue here is; he must be imagining these girls mean nothing to their families, probably this the result of a personal experience. That refers to either JT or he saw a white prostitute gone missing and nobody in her family cared about it. This may explain a lot of his behavioral features in the crimes (like avoiding a decent effort to bury the bodies), but the truth is different, these girls are from fairly upright homes with financial distress. I find Megan's mom and Maureen's sister particularly smart.
If he is now about 32, he would have been born around 1980. And if that happened for example in NYC or LI, he would have heard a lot about Rifkin (apprehended 1993) and that this guy killed prostitutes and nobody reported them missing. Kind of his earliest SK memories.
Another interesting thing; is the method in the last two cases (MW and AC). He approaches the victims, talks to them on the phone for long periods. Perhaps a tactic to drain out the batteries? When the cell goes dead or girl hints about her cell will be dead in minutes, he makes his MO move "Let's talk face to face, I'm in the neighborhood/parking lot."
My alternative MO theory is, he listens to the phone carefully, whenever he picks up rattle and clicks suggesting the cell is connected to the battery charger he makes his move. Girl leaves the phone behind, without a specific request for that. I dont think they would go out for a job without phone, no matter what the situation is.
I think both Megan and Amber were in an "almost done" deal. They didnt go for the job, they went to take a closer look at the client.
Here we should talk about the logistics of subduing a 5'.5'' heavily built woman with no alarming appearance/sound within the parking lot of a hotel.
This is, to me, a little stretch. If someone says, "hey I'm running out of battery on my cell phone" and the other one says "I'm out on the parking lot in front of your hotel" or even worse, "in front of your home", the next question is "and how do you know where I am?"
So in this particular detail, I rather stick with blitz-attack on the way back from a client or gas station. The problem is, if you hit someone over the hit in plain sight, people tend to remember your face. If you hit someone in an empty spot between two buildings or at night in a dark corner, it's a different story. But once more, that's just me.
Looking at the case in general "nobody would care" is good enough, yet I still believe there is a certain method involved in taking them over silently. Involvement of extreme muscle power should be considered.
or involvement of a drowbar or a tire iron. Compare Ted Bundy.
I believe there is snuff and the tapes/pictures are still kept, he will keep them as long as he feels safe from LE. Destroying them would be a big decision for him.
Honestly, I doubt, he would be able to make that decision. He would try to find a better hiding place. But that's a thought stemming partially from the different thoughts about why he is killing. If those videos and photos would serve a mere reliving, he maybe can. If they would establish a symbolic victory to him, rather not.
The biggest blow to the theory is the little sister Amanda. The family lawyer says he is led by Amanda and the MB's stepfather "He's white." Although this seems fairly strict, I sense something in that tickles my mind. "He's white" remark is done so abruptly, that it may be actually be a taunting attack to lure him back to communication.
Any half-way educated black (not even speaking top notch education here), can simulate a drunk white man. A little slurred speech, avoidance of typical speech patterns and the job is done. Add to this some extras, like the sexual deviant behavior every one would expect from a white sexual sadist loner in his mother's basement, what do you get? Exactly the FBI rubber stamp profile. So I still think, those phone calls were not sadistic behavior but had the purpose to inject him into the investigation with the tactical goal to make everybody believe, he is that white loner with an alcohol problem who can't hold a job.
Extending the scope wider than the GB4;
Bludgeoned Asian Male, can be linked up. There's the possibility that the Asian male, petite and slim was actually "beautiful" and the killer couldnt even notice she was a he. Rage factor can be involved here.
This means, you follow a "one killer" line here? Because I would book that Asian on Manorville.
Without the 911 call (transcript or better the audio) all will be speculation. My theory above is as equally powerful as the "Shannan went crazy, took off her clothes and shoes, ran into the bushes, got tangled, drowned" explanation.
Wish a nice day for everybody.
We know, it was a long 911 call. IN fact, it still grows, I found today "half an hour". But even if the 18 minutes are true, we can be sure, no SK was sitting 18 minutes there having tea and cookies while she was on the phone with the police and then would be still stupid enough to let her escape from the house. At least in those 18 minutes, nobody tried to kill her and if nobody tried to kill her, than there was no killer. We don't need the transcript to know that part.
