So this is my first post here. I've been following this case since around the beginning of August and I've been reading the posts here off and on for a few weeks.
I have never been one to get so caught up in such things but I find this case very intriguing. Plus the fact it is so heavily covered has kept me checking every day for any new facts that might have come up. I have read all of the documents that have been released, listened to all of the audios, and watched many of the videos. And I have been trying to look at those facts logically as I learn them.
Turning on commentary mode for a brief moment, I find it remarkable how much of the opinions about this case are not directly supported by the current evidence as we know it. So many have come to the conclusion that Casey is a brutal premeditated murderer, unless I've missed something, I haven't seen any evidence that would suggest that. Yet I am curious as to why so many people have formed that conclusion. Ok commentary mode off.
Again I've been trying to look at this case in a logical manner without any emotion attached. For a long time I didn't have any opinion one way or the other, but over the past few days have come to form some.
The fact that Caylee hasn't been seen for over three months makes it reasonable to come to the conclusion that she is dead. Although the fact she hasn't been seen in this length of time is enough to come to this conclusion. Being that she is a child, its a lot different than if an adult was missing for this length of time. However if you combine that fact with Casey's lack of urgency to find her certainly indicates there is no one alive to find.
It is well documented that Casey is a habitual liar and that troubles me. The reason being that I've known a handful of people through my life that were also habitual liars. The one thing they all had in common was they would lie even when telling the truth would be to their advantage. I think it has something to do with a fear of revealing themselves, some sort of inner protection mechanism.
Being a compulsive liar all by itself does not make for a horrible person. I think the only thing it says is that you can't trust the things a compulsive liar might say.
Another thing I've noticed about compulsive liars is that they don't think about consequences very far in advance. Casey exhibited this behavior when she led the detectives to Universal Studios to her non existent office. Compulsive liars seem to only worry about what is happening right now and not what might happen an hour from now. I've also noticed they aren't very good at carrying out a plan, they act on impulse almost all of the time.
In all that I've read of the statements people have made, I have not seen evidence that Casey ever did anything harmful to Caylee in any way. In fact the evidence that I have heard suggests that she was close to her daughter and a good mother.
However I have seen evidence to suggest she was frequently distracted, spending a lot of time on line, on the phone, and text messaging. It's been several years but I know that when my kids were that age, they required constant monitoring or else they would surely get into some kind of trouble.
We know that from the testimony of Lee that the odor from the car was repulsive. We also know that Casey avoided driving the car for some time, preferring to drive her friend's cars. We also know the cadaver dogs indicated the odor was that of a decomposing body. It seems fairly clear there was a dead body in the trunk of that car. Which further reinforces the theory that Caylee is no longer alive.
I get the sense that the grandparents were very daunting on Caylee. When Casey talked of giving her up for adoption, which for a young woman in her situation is a reasonable course, the grandparents refused to allow it. Also they drew up papers to insure if anything happened to Casey they would retain custody.
This again is just my opinion based on some personal experience, but I don't think it is ever solid evidence to judge someone's behavior. We might say I would never act this way or that if this thing or that thing happened to me. How does any ever know exactly how they would react to a given situation until they have experienced that situation themselves? A persons reactions might be something to cause suspicion, but by itself I do not believe is ever hard evidence.
So I'm writing a really long post here, I just wanted to state some of the evidence that I feel is significant and which has caused me to draw some opinions as to what really happened in this case. Until we have hard evidence as to what really did happen, all any of us really have are opinions.
Based on the evidence I think the most likely scenario is that Caylee died as the result of an accident that could have been prevented if Casey had been paying attention. Most likely it happened at the home and if so mostly likely from drowning in the pool as no one has said anything about large amounts of blood anywhere in the home.
At that moment Casey panics. A reasonable person would call 911, but Casey is a compulsive liar and her first reaction is to cover up, hide what just happened. She's also worried that regardless of what happened her mother will never forgive her.
Whether she had other options or not, she puts Caylee's body in the trunk of the car. Out of sight, out of mind and for the moment problem is solved. She hasn't even planned the next step.
After a few days she notices the odor in the car and she makes up the story about the squirrels to explain it. But she is still driving the car so the odor has not become unbearable.
She comes up with the idea that she will bury the body in the backyard and borrows a shovel from the neighbor. However she realizes its going to take more effort and time than she was prepared for and gives up on that idea. Again the idea was likely more an impulse rather than a well thought out plan.
Finally the odor becomes so unbearable that she not only has to get rid of the body but also the car. We know what she did with the car, we don't know what she did with the body.
I don't think she went off into the deep woods or anything like that. I think the dumpster is a possibility. If so I think its more luck rather than ingenuity that allowed her to get away with doing so. No one happened to be looking at the time and the dumpster got emptied before anyone had a chance to notice the odor. If it wasn't the dumpster I would expect it would be some other place that was easy at the time.
I don't believe she has told anyone what really happened. Not the attorney, not the grandparents, and not the brother. I don't think she will ever tell the truth, maybe not even when it gets to the point where she has no choice to do so.
The outstanding questions I have; What was the deal with the gas cans? Was there really an issue with the gas guage on the car? Why was she making up stories about having a nanny all the way back in the early part of the year? Who is Caylee's father?