Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

[Bats]

IMO... Samantha's disappearance has been a carefully orchestrated crime....lots of planning, surveillance and preparation...It's not random IMO...I have no doubt that LE are all over it and have a great deal of evidence that we know nothing about....so...motive is paramount to this investigation

I see what you're saying and I'm not ruling this theory out, but i wonder....why would the disappearance of Samantha require some sort of extremely well planned and carefully orchestrated event? Who is she to require this? We've seen over and over again bikie gangs involved in organised hits but generally speaking, they're hardly well orchestrated with surveillance and lots of preparation! It makes me think that Samantha's disappearance is more likely fairly random... somewhat premeditated but maybe not. All JMO

 

[Deleted member 293720]

JMO. Of course there would be heaps of traffic coming and going from the Murphy house on Sunday 4th of FEB. Sam was reported missing. Family, relatives and friends would have been notified, and gone to the house and see what they can do to help. And most probably driven to look for her themselves. I really believe, plus hope this is irrelevent, as if it is important. It is someone that knows her. JMO

I think the times of movement would be important around Samantha leaving for her run

 

[imstilla.grandma]

Police, including forensic officers, scoured a small patch of land in Mount Clear on Friday, less than 10 minutes' drive from the Murphy home, following new intelligence from phone data.

It's understood police were looking for smaller items that may have been left behind in a potential struggle.

Detective Acting Superintendent Hatt said police believed Murphy reached that area around one hour into her run and were investigating the theory she was forcibly removed from it.

In response to questions from A Current Affair about Murphy's family home, Detective Acting Superintendent Hatt said police had tracked and were following up on many movements to and from the property on the day Murphy vanished.

He said it had been searched to an "extent".

The Murphy smash repair business and its finances were also an active line of inquiry for police.

Convicted sex offender among interview subjects in missing mum case

9now.nine.com.au

 

[TootsieFootsie]

Dozens of volunteers scour bushland for missing mum Samantha Murphy

Trusted and independent source of local, national and world news. In-depth analysis, business, sport, weather and more.

www.abc.net.au

1.43 minute video

 

[SouthAussie]

<modsnip - quoted post was removed>


Mark Hatt said they see Mick every day. To give him updates and to get assistance from him. (in the presser)
He didn't mention where they see him, though.

 

[Deleted member 293720]

I see what you're saying and I'm not ruling this theory out, but i wonder....why would the disappearance of Samantha require some sort of extremely well planned and carefully orchestrated event? Who is she to require this? We've seen over and over again bikie gangs involved in organised hits but generally speaking, they're hardly well orchestrated like this! It makes me think that Samantha's disappearance is more likely fairly random... somewhat premeditated but maybe not. All JMO

It's so strange, there is no evidence left behind ( or so we are told ) which is looking like a planned, professional hit, someone who knows how to clean up after them and is looking like her body has been removed from the bush, to go to all this trouble, taking time and big risk of being seen, to get her out of there

For all the searches, dog squad, mounted police, they have helicopters flying over with thermal imaging ( they can also pick up dead bodies in different stages of decomposition) have picked up nothing

If Sam had any concerns, threats beforehand that she knew about

I am sure she wouldn't have gone for a run through the bush as usual

 

[Dotta]

She might be in a mine shaft or a body of water somewhere out there.

Is there a river in this area?

 

[Bats]

It's so strange, there is no evidence left behind ( or so we are told ) which is looking like a planned, professional hit, someone who knows how to clean up after them and is looking like her body has been removed from the bush, to go to all this trouble, taking time and big risk of being seen, to get her out of there

For all the searches, dog squad, mounted police, they have helicopters flying over with thermal imaging ( they can also pick up dead bodies in different stages of decomposition) have picked up nothing

If Sam had any concerns, threats beforehand that she knew about

I am sure she wouldn't have gone for a run through the bush as usual

That's true, but you need to remember that Samantha had the choice to run in any direction when she left her home. If someone was intrinsically planning her abduction, they'd need to cover off many different directions that she may choose to run.

I'm sure there are people out there that know a particular area. That may have thought for years that it would be easy to make someone disappear in the area that they are very familiar with.

 

[Oona]

I have trouble believing SM’s husband or immediate family are involved in her disappearance in any way.

Apparently the convicted sex offender mentioned earlier (with an alibi) has only been interviewed in recent days by police so, ostensibly, they are not focusing only on the husband and family.

My persistent thought is that someone was quite obsessed with SM and became very familiar with her running routes and routines. They may have observed her on earlier occasions running, maybe covertly, and carefully planned whatever it was they did to SM.

Convicted sex offender among interview subjects in missing mum case

9now.nine.com.au

 

[Deleted member 293720]

That's true, but you need to remember that Samantha had the choice to run in any direction when she left her home. If someone was intrinsically planning her abduction, they'd need to cover off many different directions that she may choose to run.

I'm sure there are people out there that know a particular area. That may have thought for years that it would be easy to make someone disappear in the area that they are very familiar with.

She could have mentioned it the night before, or someone might have asked her which direction are you thinking of running tomorrow in a general conversation ?

But someone knew she was going to be at Mount Clear and what time she would be there

I am sure the police know now as well.

Considering they are shifting through 12,000 hours of CCTV footage and 500 separate pieces of information, according to Victoria Police

Search continues for missing woman Samantha Murphy

Detectives from the Missing Persons Squad will today lead a targeted search of the Mount Clear area as part of their…

www.police.vic.gov.au

 

[Bats]

She could have mentioned it the night before, or someone might have asked her which direction are you thinking of running tomorrow in a general conversation ?

But someone knew she was going to be at Mount Clear and what time she would be there

I am sure the police know now as well

Yes thats true. My belief is that Samantha was a person that probably had a good sense of her 'circle'. If someone asked her what direction she was running tomorrow...
A - she probably would have been sus on the question.
B - She may not have been planning to run in any particular direction and if someone she was sus on the night before had asked her that, she probably would have gone in another direction.

Yes, someone that has been watching her for a long time may have noticed she has a routine. Maybe not expecting her to appear but when she did has acted on an impulse. There are many examples of impulsive crimes.

 

[Hats]

That's true, but you need to remember that Samantha had the choice to run in any direction when she left her home. If someone was intrinsically planning her abduction, they'd need to cover off many different directions that she may choose to run.

I'm sure there are people out there that know a particular area. That may have thought for years that it would be easy to make someone disappear in the area that they are very familiar with.

Was running through the bush roads a routine though? Mark Hatt mentioned in the last press conference that she would vary the distance of her runs. So she could turn back at different points and also branch off to a different track. Eg turning into Recreation Rd as opposed to mabe a longer run by continuing on Boundary Rd.

If there was a premeditated plan to intercept her, it would have made more sense to intercept along Cathie St or early section of Boundary Rd, as IMO, this would be the route of most of her runs (based on my earlier assumption of mostly doing her runs through the bush roads).

The fact that the intercept seems to have occurred in Mount Clear, means that she must have turned into Recreation Rd that day. This fits with the 14km shorter run (compared to up to 20km runs?) due to her appointments that day.

For perpetrators to be waiting for an intercept along Recreation Rd at the Mount Clear vicinity, they would need to have intimate knowledge of her plans for that morning and possibly foreknowledge of her planned running route.

 

[Chestnutsunfish]

No there has been no Police information given about the time…. They are not revealing any of that information at present ….

This article mentions the time.
“It is believed she reached the Mount Clear area about an hour after she left home about 7am.”

Samantha Murphy most likely dead, police say, as phone clue leads to new search

Investigators say they believe "more parties" are involved in the Ballarat mother's disappearance and "everyone" in her life is a person of interest as the search focuses on bushland south of Ballarat.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Hats]

This article mentions the time.
“It is believed she reached the Mount Clear area about an hour after she left home about 7am.”

Samantha Murphy most likely dead, police say, as phone clue leads to new search

Investigators say they believe "more parties" are involved in the Ballarat mother's disappearance and "everyone" in her life is a person of interest as the search focuses on bushland south of Ballarat.

www.abc.net.au

No, it was the ping near the golf course that the police are very tight lipped on and not releasing the time of that ping.

The golf course is further south of the Mount Clear area, so presumably the phone had travelled in a vehicle to where it was pinged near the golf course in Buninyong. .

 

[Bats]

Was running through the bush roads a routine though? Mark Hatt mentioned in the last press conference that she would vary the distance of her runs. So she could turn back at different points and also branch off to a different track. Eg turning into Recreation Rd as opposed to mabe a longer run by continuing on Boundary Rd.

If there was a premeditated plan to intercept her, it would have made more sense to intercept along Cathie St or early section of Boundary Rd, as IMO, this would be the route of most of her runs (based on my earlier assumption of mostly doing her runs through the bush roads).

The fact that the intercept seems to have occurred in Mount Clear, means that she must have turned into Recreation Rd that day. This fits with the 14km shorter run (compared to up to 20km runs?) due to her appointments that day.

For perpetrators to be waiting for an intercept along Recreation Rd at the Mount Clear vicinity, they would need to have intimate knowledge of her plans for that morning and possibly foreknowledge of her planned running route.

I can see you're trying to make 'sense' of something that may not have any 'sense' in the first place. Even for the perpetrator.

If Samantha were to head down Recreation road, why would a perpetrator need to have an intimate knowledge of that happening on any particular day over many months of her sometimes doing that?

I think ...that you may be thinking this was a plan for that particular day. My thoughts is that a moment is a moment...it could be today, it could be in 3 months time.

 

[Hats]

Hmmm, a perpetrator may not necessarily be a 'runner' that has noticed her routine.

Also, i can can see you're trying to make 'sense' of something that may not have any 'sense' in the first place. Even for the perpetrator.

If Samantha were to head down Recreation road, why would a perpetrator need to have an intimate knowledge of that happening on any particular day over many months of her sometimes doing that?

I think ...that you may be thinking this was a plan for that particular day. My thoughts is that a moment is a moment...it could be today, it could be in 3 months time.

At the moment IMO it was a targeted attack and would to have had at least some minimal planning,

 

[Bats]

At the moment IMO it was a targeted attack and would to have had at least some minimal planning,

Curious, what makes you believe it was a targeted attack requiring planning?

 

[PolyDot]

At the moment IMO it was a targeted attack and would to have had at least some minimal planning

could it not be a random attack - where the perp has been thinking & rehearsing this kind of attack so in a way quite well planned .. someone who hangs around waiting for the right moment , the right victim ?
I think it could be this - or someone close to the victim . Murder is usually personal.

 

[Dotta]

Re the pool of suspects
IF the perp was somebody known to her...

I somehow don't think it was family.

But somebody mentioned Samantha's local theatre involvement.
Maybe someone from this crowd?
A kind of unbalanced, weird, "artistic" persona?
I even think a kind of addict.

JMO

 

[Hats]

could it not be a random attack - where the perp has been thinking & rehearsing this kind of attack so in a way quite well planned .. someone who hangs around waiting for the right moment , the right victim ?
I think it could be this - or someone close to the victim . Murder is usually personal.

Yes of course it could be. I am just more personaly swayed towards a targeted attack due to the type of family business and also I don't get the sense from the police that there is an ongoing threat to public safety, which wouldn't be the case if they thought it was a random crazed killer still at large.