Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

[Hestia's Fire]

We don’t know that there is 2 perps ?
It could be opportunistic & random , perp is somewhere on the track - he lurks there for the right opportunity to attack someone ?

No, we don't know that there are 2 perps. We also don't now that there's just one. I'm just thinking through a scenario of how a person lurking in the forest could know where Sam was heading, if someone closer to home gave them a heads up as she left.

 

[Dotta]

A parent of a child actor who was unhappy that their child wasn’t cast in a recent production? Jealousy? i don’t feel like that is what happened here but anything is possible.

Was it children's theatre?
Ooops!
I meant fellow adult actor or other fellow artist.
Somebody overflowing with emotions, artistic type.
Easily Ego hurt/ overdramatic.
Narcissistic.

JMO

 

[Littleguy7]

The other aspect in relation to the business that hasn’t been mentioned here yet is that as the Bookkeeper she would have been responsible for collections and payments. Not inconceivable that tensions might have arose with someone that owned the business money

 

[Macha]

Having followed this case from the beginning and having read everything written etc, I think the police know exactly who killed Samantha. They have given us clear signs along the way.

 

[mamamama9873]

Having followed this case from the beginning and having read everything written etc, I think the police know exactly who killed Samantha. They have given us clear signs along the way.

can you please elaborate on the clear signs?

 

[Naobh]

Australian history on organised crime gangs shows otherwise.

Do you have examples of such cases? I can't think of any where they "disappear" a mother of 3.

 

[SouthAussie]

Yes of course it could be. I am just more personaly swayed towards a targeted attack due to the type of family business and also I don't get the sense from the police that there is an ongoing threat to public safety, which wouldn't be the case if they thought it was a random crazed killer still at large.

I honestly don't think that the police put out alerts warning people about public safety, when someone has disappeared.
I can't recall that happening in any of the cases I have followed here.
They seem more likely to warn the public if a convict has escaped from prison.

As we have read, the women runners of Ballarat are already taking even more safety precautions (avoiding the area) just by virtue of Sam's disappearance.
I think that is more of what happens ... the police put an alert out about the circumstances, people make their own judgements on their safety.

imo

 

[Dotta]

The other aspect in relation to the business that hasn’t been mentioned here yet is that as the Bookkeeper she would have been responsible for collections and payments. Not inconceivable that tensions might have arose with someone that owned the business money

But this person would STILL owe money to the firm, no?

How does her disappearance change this?
There are invoices, etc. in shop's documents.
Debts must be paid regardless of who does the bookkeeping.

JMO

 

[SouthAussie]

Looking at CCTV in Ballarat. The town has 88 public CCTV cameras around the CBD and in a couple of reserves. These cameras are hooked up to a control room at the police station, record 24 hours a day, and the recordings are kept for 28 days.

This is in addition, of course, to any private CCTV that may be around the place.

This might help explain why the police have 12,000 hours of CCTV to go through.

Public CCTV | City of Ballarat

www.ballarat.vic.gov.au

 

[Littleguy7]

But this person would STILL owe money to the firm, no?

How does her disappearance change this?
There are invoices, etc. in shop's documents.
Debts must be paid regardless who does the bookkeeping.

JMO

Yeh agree it wouldn’t solve the problem but it may have led to animosity growing. Probably no less or more likely than the aggrieved former employee theory

 

[SouthAussie]

But this person would STILL owe money to the firm, no?

How does her disappearance change this?
There are invoices, etc. in shop's documents.
Debts must be paid regardless of who does the bookkeeping.

JMO

In a business I work in (not a panel beaters, but a different tradie kind of business) when people don't pay within a reasonable period of time - and after at least several attempts to get them to pay - we just give their debt to a debt collection agency to pursue.

The owner of this business would rather get 80% of the money owed (the debt collector gets the rest) than have the customer get out of paying their bill.

It is a hands-off approach to getting people to pay.

imo

 

[Dotta]

In a business I work in (not a panel beaters, but a different tradie kind of business) when people don't pay within a reasonable period of time - and after at least several attempts to get them to pay - we just give their debt to a debt collection agency to pursue.

The owner of this business would rather get 80% of the money owed (the debt collector gets the rest) than have the customer get out of paying their bill.

It is a hands-off approach to getting people to pay.

imo

Debt collector sounds ominous

Just kidding

 

[SouthAussie]

Debt collector sounds ominous

Just kidding

Well, no-one has tried to kill us yet for sending their debt to a collection agency who makes them pay.

 

[imstilla.grandma]

How does her disappearance/death change the structure of her business?

 

[Naobh]

I honestly don't think that the police put out alerts warning people about public safety, when someone has disappeared.
I can't recall that happening in any of the cases I have followed here.
They seem more likely to warn the public if a convict has escaped from prison.

As we have read, the women runners of Ballarat are already taking even more safety precautions (avoiding the area) just by virtue of Sam's disappearance.
I think that is more of what happens ... the police put an alert out about the circumstances, people make their own judgements on their safety.

imo

Plus it seems like the compulsive type of serious offender against random strangers leaves time between attacks, whether it's because they know it's wrong and try to control themselves to an extent, or because they get attacked in jail by normal criminals with morals and don't want to get caught, or something. They do seem to escalate each time which could mean they were trying to control themselves then something in their mind cracks worse. And it must be why they look at known offenders with slightly lesser charges than murder in the past.

There's also the issue of framing warnings from police under "victim blaming". There's a good article I think someone referenced above which explains some of why people take issue with it.

Samantha Murphy's disappearance goes to the heart of women's fears about running alone

Women in the missing Ballarat mother's hometown are either running in groups or not at all, and they're not alone in their fears — 90 per cent of women in a national running group say they joined for safety reasons.

www.abc.net.au

They talk about taking precautions but I don't really think you'd feel like you need to in some areas.

 

[imstilla.grandma]

 

[SouthAussie]

Having followed this case from the beginning and having read everything written etc, I think the police know exactly who killed Samantha. They have given us clear signs along the way.

I am not sure what the clear signs are.

From what I can tell, the police are looking at those closest to Sam (normal investigation procedure).
And they are looking at known offenders (normal investigation procedure).
And they are looking at business dealings (normal investigation procedure).
And they are looking at any friends and associates Sam may have (normal investigation procedure).

The police typically start at those closest to the victim and work their way outwards. Counting people (POIs) potentially in or potentially out along the way as they determine the circumstances of Sam's relationship (or not) with all of these people.

In this case, it is a very difficult to read where the police are at in their reckonings. They are keeping a lot of information tightly under wraps, to ensure the integrity of their investigation and potential future prosecution.

imo

 

[Chimera]

Thanks for the links everyone.
Came here to check for an update, but nothing much new, really.

I'm following LE quite closely on this and by now one would think they'd let the public know if Samantha's disappearance was voluntary, or if clues led to a belief of self-harm --- but I think they are pointing to neither of those suggestions.
So imo she was taken by someone known to her, and that's scary to think.
LE haven't warned the public to be careful, so there's that ?
Omo.

 

[Black-Cat]

She could have mentioned it the night before, or someone might have asked her which direction are you thinking of running tomorrow in a general conversation ?

But someone knew she was going to be at Mount Clear and what time she would be there

I am sure the police know now as well.

Considering they are shifting through 12,000 hours of CCTV footage and 500 separate pieces of information, according to Victoria Police

Search continues for missing woman Samantha Murphy

Detectives from the Missing Persons Squad will today lead a targeted search of the Mount Clear area as part of their…

www.police.vic.gov.au

I keep thinking that perhaps she had a regular meet up with someone in Mount Clear, and something went wrong.

IMO

 

[Investig8r]

True! But at the dinner party night before, she did discuss that she was going on a run the next day (I haven’t seen this reported, only commented on), which may mean she discussed on that night where that run would be. Which potentially makes those guests present a smaller focus group for police.

Here you go:

The night before she disappeared, during dinner with her husband Mick and friends, Ms Murphy mentioned she was going for a 14-km run the next day before it got too hot.

Sinister twists as search for Samantha Murphy continues

The puzzling disappearance of Samantha Murphy has captivated the nation. With no clues and eerie encounters in the forest, what has happened to the devoted mum-of-three?

www.dailymail.co.uk

I wondered at the time whether someone may have been fishing for SM’s activities/directions during this conversation…. May have been normal dinner chit chat but could have also provided someone with a good idea where SM was going the next day. JMO