Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

[Moonchild90]

Agree - thinking back to Jill Meagher, Stephanie Scott… one was a random attacker, one was known to her… no warnings to the public.

My theories:
- a planned abduction (someone known to her but not close family)… still undecided on business connection
- accident / hit by car / cover up
- random opportunistic attack.

I first thought it was some random attacker now I think it was preplanned either by her closest or a hitman

 

[Deleted member 293720]

Yes thats true. My belief is that Samantha was a person that probably had a good sense of her 'circle'. If someone asked her what direction she was running tomorrow...
A - she probably would have been sus on the question.
B - She may not have been planning to run in any particular direction and if someone she was sus on the night before had asked her that, she probably would have gone in another direction.

Yes, someone that has been watching her for a long time may have noticed she has a routine. Maybe not expecting her to appear but when she did has acted on an impulse. There are many examples of impulses

I think it's a bit odd reporting her missing just after two hours, I would be searching everywhere, before I knew she was definitely missing and something was wrong.

Unless you knew she was not in there and was not going to be found

 

[Moonchild90]

Do we know where her husband been in the early hours of her disappearance?

 

[kiwi50]

I am not sure what the clear signs are.

From what I can tell, the police are looking at those closest to Sam (normal investigation procedure).
And they are looking at known offenders (normal investigation procedure).
And they are looking at business dealings (normal investigation procedure).
And they are looking at any friends and associates Sam may have (normal investigation procedure).

The police typically start at those closest to the victim and work their way outwards. Counting people (POIs) potentially in or potentially out along the way as they determine the circumstances of Sam's relationship (or not) with all of these people.

In this case, it is a very difficult to read where the police are at in their reckonings. They are keeping a lot of information tightly under wraps, to ensure the integrity of their investigation and potential future prosecution.

imo

Yes the police are keeping this very close to their chests.
I wouldnt be prepared to put money on any of my theories at this point.

 

[Investig8r]

I think it's a bit odd reporting her missing just after two hours, I would be searching everywhere, before I knew she was definitely missing and something was wrong.

Unless you knew she was not in there and was not going to be found

Agree - I thought this early on but has the time been confirmed? I thought the report was really quick if it was around lunch time.

 

[BreakingNews]

She's listed on the shop website as co-owner with Mick, so I assume in the event of her death, he is now the sole owner of the business and their multi-million dollar home.

Private company

 

[SouthAussie]

I think it's a bit odd reporting her missing just after two hours, I would be searching everywhere, before I knew she was definitely missing and something was wrong.

Unless you knew she was not in there and was not going to be found

It was going to be a screaming hot day, they all knew that.

After ringing her mobile and getting no answer, driving the known tracks to see if she was laying hurt somewhere (presuming that was done), the next thing to do would be to call the police and alert them that Sam hadn't returned from her run and if she is hurt she could succumb to heatstroke during the day. Can the police please take a look too?

(Especially dangerous with no water with her )

imo

 

[southgoldengirl]

Until the offender is found or solid evidence it was a random or targeted attack, I think police will find it impossible to categorically rule out anybody who went searching in the forest after realising SM is missing but before police were alerted and the official search began. Anyone who did that has put themselves, their phone pings, their DNA, right in the frame as someone a defence could point toward to shed doubt that the accused is the guilty party. It puts an extra degree of difficulty on the situation unless police have iron clad evidence linking the accused to the crime. Noting it is also a clever way for a bad actor to justify their presence, their phone pings, their DNA in the area. IMO.

I agree it is very difficult to categorically rule out anybody but I have a lot of faith (possibly to much) in Vicpol in these type of high profile cases. As far as I am aware her husband didn't go searching in the bush for her before he contacted police. Sam didn't make it to a brunch at 11 am, Mick was informed and apparently reported her missing around 11am.

 

[PolyDot]

I do wonder though, as they know Sam reached that point in Mt Clear within an hour, who would be out there looking for Sam at 8am.

Ostensibly, she wouldn't have been due back home until around 9am. Perhaps by 9:30-10:00 someone at home might be wondering where the heck mum is, she should be back by now.

I agree it is very difficult to categorically rule out anybody but I have a lot of faith (possibly to much) in Vicpol in these type of high profile cases. As far as I am aware her husband didn't go searching in the bush for her before he contacted police. Sam didn't make it to a brunch at 11 am, Mick was informed and apparently reported her missing around 11am.

I wonder why her friends/ family were so quick to report her missing ? …. could it be that they were worried about her safety ? I wonder why ?

 

[Naobh]

I think it's a bit odd reporting her missing just after two hours, I would be searching everywhere, before I knew she was definitely missing and something was wrong.

Unless you knew she was not in there and was not going to be found

It's not the sort of area you can search by yourself. There's searches all the time, it's just you usually find them.

 

[CoffeeHug]

I think it's a bit odd reporting her missing just after two hours, I would be searching everywhere, before I knew she was definitely missing and something was wrong.

Unless you knew she was not in there and was not going to be found

I don't think it's odd. If my husband was missing on a run and I thought something was wrong, I'd call for help quickly. If it's something medical, time can be very important and more feet on the ground might make all the difference. The exception being if I knew exactly where he was and could go straight to him. But it's hightly unlikely I'd know where he is beyond a broad area. I wouldn't want to waste precious minutes aimlessly searching a big area.

 

[PolyDot]

The police have said that they were investigating ‘ movements to and from home ‘ I am assuming some of those would have been MM searching for her ? Maybe on foot initially ? , then by car ?

 

[bearbear]

in regard to sm mentioning going for a 14km run the night before,
maybe the family/friends all know that the mt clear run is her go to when she wants to do that 14km distance

 

[JLZ]

Looking at CCTV in Ballarat. The town has 88 public CCTV cameras around the CBD and in a couple of reserves. These cameras are hooked up to a control room at the police station, record 24 hours a day, and the recordings are kept for 28 days.

This is in addition, of course, to any private CCTV that may be around the place.

This might help explain why the police have 12,000 hours of CCTV to go through.

Public CCTV | City of Ballarat

www.ballarat.vic.gov.au

There's also private property within the forest--off Davidson Rd and Bakers Rd, Canadian, for example. They may have had CCTV.

 

[southgoldengirl]

I don't think the police like to put undue pressure on innocent parties needlessly and they don't appreciate the damaging rumours and speculation that impacts on their investigation. So if possible they will publicly eliminate certain people as soon as they can.
I realise it is a different police force and every case is different but in the Cleo Smith case the police within days had publicly ruled out her parents as suspects. I was pretty amazed really, that case was so random and complex.

 

[Leafy]

Yes I think you are right , police have moved away from warning women to be careful - for obvious reasons
stop telling women to be ‘safe ‘ , tell men to stop raping & killing !

Yes, I think they have changed their language around this in terms of crimes against women and public safety warnings.

Eurydice Dixon: Warnings over personal safety spark social media backlash - ABC News

amp.abc.net.au

 

[whitelilac]

Regarding the question who would benefit from Samantha's death, whether related to the car repair business or not, maybe nobody would benefit......maybe the killing stemmed from pure rage. No financial nor power related gain at all. Just pure revenge induced rage.
That is, if the perp is someone in her circle, someone known to her.
Still could be a totally opportunistic random event, and not premeditated.

 

[PolyDot]

I am bit concerned about who reported her missing ?

It sounds like friends/family rang MM looking for her as she didn’t turn up for brunch ( I could be wrong here?)
If that is the case
- were they concerned for her safety ? If so why ?
- did MM not notice she had not returned from her run ? showered dressed , taken car and left for the event ?

 

[Dotta]

Update from 2 hrs ago

"As Samantha Murphy's disappearance enters fourth week, ​

Ballarat residents continue search.​

As night fell,
the volunteers met and decided to rest their search efforts on Sunday.

Police still appealing for dashcam footage and information​

By Saturday,
police had already concluded their search in bushland around Mount Clear,
and had no further updates.

In their most recent press conference on Friday, investigators thanked the community who had assisted with searches and the investigation."

As Samantha Murphy's disappearance enters fourth week, Ballarat residents continue search

While police hold little hope that 51-year-old mother of three Samantha Murphy will be found alive, dozens of volunteers are trying to help authorities bring answers to her family.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Deleted member 293720]

Agree - I thought this early on but has the time been confirmed? I thought the report was really quick if it was around lunch time

To add...

My most recent theory (among many others)
is Samantha being hit by a random car
(driver drunk/drugged???)

So...
Hit and run - and concealment of the victim.

She might be found solely by chance.
If ever

Cctv is the key to identify the car.

JMO

The only thing interesting, is the police are looking for smaller items at Mt Clear

As they think Samantha could have been struggling