Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

[otto]

Here's a map with trails.


Map

 

[SouthAussie]

In the press conference on Friday, when Hatt was asked directly by journalist about bikie links - he stated that he couldn't comment. He was also explicit in saying there is no risk to members of the community based on their current investigation. As I said, my hunch.

Yes, I was looking for a timestamp of when he said it. Because I didn't remember that.

So I just relistened and at the 7:41 mark someone asks if they are looking at any bikie links, and Mark Hatt says (again) that he can't comment on specifics of the investigation.

Link to press conference

 

[Seriallyaddicted]

First time posting on this case.
I find the Sissy Austin assault from back in Feb last year, hard not to think about when thinking about this missing persons case. It’s just a massive red flag for me being recent, only 15kms away approx, given it’s a female jogging in the bush and the man was never caught.
Also the report by the campers (Rebecca agheli & Michael church hill) who recently saw someone who looked odd looking / scary who seems to match the type of person who assaulted Sissy Austin.
It’s just feels too much of a red flag / coincidence for me and I think this person they described is more than likely the person who attacked Samantha Murphy.
Of course there are definitely other options on what could have happened but I feel that this person would be at the top of my suspect list.
Have there been any further reports (eg. by locals) on who this person could be?

 

[ann3244]

My understanding is that the phone pinged 11 km away from her home at 5 PM either at, or near, a golf course. I think that's a different location than the current search of the Mount Clear trails.

View attachment 485923

Map

Thanks!. So the perpetrator might have stayed in the area for the day and moved the phone with them, do you think?

 

[otto]

The only reason I could think of anyone 'organised' targeting Sam is if they discovered that she personally was blowing the whistle on someone. Personally working with the police - giving them information - to bring someone down.

In which case, the police would already know about that investigation and Sam's involvement.

And I don't know how that organisation would know that Sam would be in the Mt Clear area at about 8am on Sunday morning.

imo

It would be a big risk to Samantha's family if she worked undercover with police. That alone leaves me doubting any connection to organized crime.

Didn't police ask about vehicles with some damage? That would be related to someone hitting Samantha with a vehicle - accidentally, or intentionally, and removing her from the scene.

She could have been accosted on the trails and then taken somewhere by vehicle (more than one person). She might be in the area, but it sounds like investigators are trying to pinpoint the exact location where something went wrong. That is, they're looking for evidence that was dropped or left behind at the time of the attack so they can find the original crime scene. Search dogs might be useful if the crime scene can be located.

 

[SouthAussie]

Thanks!. So the perpetrator might have stayed in the area for the day and moved the phone with them, do you think?

The 5pm is a FB rumour, as far as we know. The police refuse to divulge the time of the last ping. (This was stated as the last ping, some time later that day, whatever that means - seeing that Sam disappeared in the early morning)

Every single question that the reporters have asked about the time of the ping, the police say they can't comment on specifics.

 

[nightrider17]

What police wrote on Thurs

"They will focus on an area highlighted by intelligence derived from phone data.".

Search continues for missing woman Samantha Murphy

Detectives from the Missing Persons Squad will today lead a targeted search of the Mount Clear area as part of their…

www.police.vic.gov.au

That 'intelligence,' may not be a ping, but data from, eg, a heart rate monitor, or gps running app, that shows she stopped moving there, or something.

It's not been confirmed, but there are rumours of a ping (or perhaps an apple locate address) later in the day, from several kms away from MT. Clear. Someone may have taken her there temporarily, and moved her later, or whatever.

JMO

ETA, in one US case, the killer somehow briefly filmed himself, after the murder, on the victim's phone! Handling phones is tricky, you might carelessly turn one on, etc.

So if the relied on example say a heart rate monitor to determine the area of Mount Clear - when they ascertained a change in momentum. Slowed down, revved up etc.IMO

Maybe just collecting any foliage/soil from this area - to match up with any other evidence. Maybe in the boot of someones car?? MOO

Like someone said - looking for a damaged tree in that area and what impact that would look like on a car.JMO

If someone knew that SM mentioned she ran down to that clearing on the corner of recreation and boundary road (where there is some kind of brick building - I think its a water storage tank )that they would at least be a aware of that spot to hone in on as opposed to randomly being along any number of trails.JMO

 

[otto]

Thanks!. So the perpetrator might have stayed in the area for the day and moved the phone with them, do you think?

I think Samantha was abducted within a couple of hours of going for a run. I think she was taken somewhere, perhaps 20 miles South of her home, left there, and her phone pinged several hours later near the golf course in the process of destroying evidence.

 

[SouthAussie]

It would be a big risk to Samantha's family if she worked undercover with police. That alone leaves me doubting any connection to organized crime.

Didn't police ask about vehicles with some damage? That would be related to someone hitting Samantha with a vehicle - accidentally, or intentionally, and removing her from the scene.

She could have been accosted on the trails and then taken somewhere by vehicle (more than one person). She might be in the area, but it sounds like investigators are trying to pinpoint the exact location where something went wrong. That is, they're looking for evidence that was dropped or left behind at the time of the attack so they can find the original crime scene. Search dogs might be useful if the crime scene can be located.

So far we have people who strongly believe family were involved, and people who strongly believe bikies were involved, and people who strongly believe this is random.

To me, that goes to show there is no clear answer yet.

I did notice when I just relistened to the latest presser ... Mark Hatt was directly asked if there was a suspect (as opposed to POIs), Mark couldn't comment on that either.

 

[nightrider17]

As Samantha Murphy's disappearance enters fourth week, Ballarat residents continue search

While police hold little hope that 51-year-old mother of three Samantha Murphy will be found alive, dozens of volunteers are trying to help authorities bring answers to her family.

www.abc.net.au

Interesting where the arrow is pointing in the Canadian plantation search area? MOO

 

[otto]

First time posting on this case.
I find the Sissy Austin assault from back in Feb last year, hard not to think about when thinking about this missing persons case. It’s just a massive red flag for me being recent, only 15kms away approx, given it’s a female jogging in the bush and the man was never caught.
Also the report by the campers (Rebecca agheli & Michael church hill) who recently saw someone who looked odd looking / scary who seems to match the type of person who assaulted Sissy Austin.
It’s just feels too much of a red flag / coincidence for me and I think this person they described is more than likely the person who attacked Samantha Murphy.
Of course there are definitely other options on what could have happened but I feel that this person would be at the top of my suspect list.
Have there been any further reports (eg. by locals) on who this person could be?

One year apart.

"The woman who was attacked while she was out running close to where Samantha Murphy went missing has revealed why she is “furious” with police. Sissy Austin was brutally attacked a year ago while out jogging in Lal Lal, with the perpetrator still on the loose.

Ms Austin was attacked on with a homemade weapon by what police believe was a topless, caucasian man on February 11, last year.

Ms Murphy, 51, went missing over a week ago on February 4 after she left her Ballarat East home to go for a jog at about 7am."
...

“And do you know what makes me furious is one of the last things the cops said to me after my attack was?

“’The only way we will find the person that attacked you is if they hand themselves in or if they attack again.’

“And here we are...”

https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/sissy-austin-slams-police-over-samantha-murphy-disappearance/news-story/54c8f292e6ab39e7cb383f874e5cbb41

 

[acutename]

some articles have said that SM ran frequently but other articles have said the fam recently moved to this new house.... has she been running in this area for a long time or did her running areas change recently? does anyone know?

 

[SLouTh]

Interesting where the arrow is pointing in the Canadian plantation search area? MOO

Looking at the shape of the road on the map, especially the curves / corners on the right hand side of the map, I think it might be Boak Road, Mt Clear????

IMO

 

[southgoldengirl]

So far we have people who strongly believe family were involved, and people who strongly believe bikies were involved, and people who strongly believe this is random.

To me, that goes to show there is no clear answer yet.

I did notice when I just relistened to the latest presser ... Mark Hatt was directly asked if there was a suspect (as opposed to POIs), Mark couldn't comment on that either.

They are not mutually exclusive ie it can be a combination of a couple of those theories.

 

[SouthAussie]

As Samantha Murphy's disappearance enters fourth week, Ballarat residents continue search

While police hold little hope that 51-year-old mother of three Samantha Murphy will be found alive, dozens of volunteers are trying to help authorities bring answers to her family.

www.abc.net.au

Interesting where the arrow is pointing in the Canadian plantation search area? MOO

If that is the actual location of the latest police search, that would be Boak Road.

When I street-walk that spot, I see a small dam on one side of the road, and a mobile repeater/tower on the other side of the road. Google drove down that road in 2008.




Google maps

 

[otto]

So far we have people who strongly believe family were involved, and people who strongly believe bikies were involved, and people who strongly believe this is random.

To me, that goes to show there is no clear answer yet.

I did notice when I just relistened to the latest presser ... Mark Hatt was directly asked if there was a suspect (as opposed to POIs), Mark couldn't comment on that either.

No comment doesn't mean that there is information related to the question. The husband is not a suspect.

Although I've read that Samantha changed her running routes within the park, she may have routinely crossed the same roads at roughly the same time of day. Someone might have noticed her, learned her routines.

I added the red line as her approximate route, purple lines are 4 roads that she crossed. Someone could have first seen her crossing one road, circled around and waited for her to cross the next road.


Map

 

[Deleted member 293720]

Since I joined WS in 2021,
I have followed numerous threads of women attacked randomly while running or walking alone:

Rachel Morin
Eliza Fletcher
Zara Aleena
Julia James
Sarah Everard
Libby Squire
Kendra Hanks
Maria Rawlings
Ashling Murphy

And there are many, many others

And now...
Samantha Murphy
Who went running alone in the nature trail early in the morning.

Is this case really different than others?
Others of victims of random attacks?

I think, it was planned and a targeted attack

The perpetrator /s made sure there was no evidence, including no trace of her body

And someone had to know her running schedule for that morning to be there waiting for her

If it was a random attack, police would be warning the public and be more concern for the community

But they have already said Ms Murphy may have been targeted, Superintendent Hatt said: 'We have no intelligence or evidence to suggest that there's any risk to anyone else.'

I am confident the police know just about everything now, but are looking for that final piece

 

[lampshade1]

Looking at the shape of the road on the map, especially the curves / corners on the right hand side of the map, I think it might be Boak Road, Mt Clear????

IMO

I’m pretty sure the media said the search was on this road.

 

[SouthAussie]

No comment doesn't mean that there is information related to the question.

I agree. There is no way to tell what the police are coming up with. And they refuse to comment on any specifics.

While it seems a long time, it is only 3 weeks into the investigation. Not long really. Considering they are stating that it is a complex investigation.

imo

 

[otto]

Looking at the shape of the road on the map, especially the curves / corners on the right hand side of the map, I think it might be Boak Road, Mt Clear????

IMO

Yes

Google Map