Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

[Dotta]

I believe she will be found. Maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part, but her case has just tugged at my heart so much, I can't bear to think of her just vanishing forever. So I choose to believe she'll be found.

I think one of the people responsible will crack and come forward sometime soon. Maybe they were just meant to do the dirty work for a big payday and they didn't count on this case getting so much media publicity and so much scrutiny and now they're sweating bullets and looking over their shoulder every day, just waiting for the police to close in. I have a knot in my stomach just thinking about living like that; I can't imagine what it must be like to actually do it.

The more perps,
The better chance somebody starts talking IMO.

 

[jjleroche]

OK if we agree that this was a well planned homicide, we move on to the next logical question.

Who had the most to gain?

IMO it is either a financial gain or a crime of passion.

IMO it depends on how one defines "gain."

IMO in certain circles, a successful and devastating act of payback/revenge could be considered a great big win/gain, along with a strong message to others who may be considering standing up to "others". JMO

 

[ProfCluezo]

IMO it depends on how one defines "gain."

IMO in certain circles, a successful and devastating act of payback/revenge could be considered a great big win/gain, along with a strong message to others who may be considering standing up to "others". JMO

I agree.

 

[Curiosity Cat]

Hopefully it does. But if they're supposed to be there, and have an innocent explanation, it could be really hard to disprove if nobody else saw them.

p.s. I'm speaking totally hypothetically. I don't know how the business is set up or whether the schedule would allow that kind of fudging. And has been mentioned, camera coverage makes it unlikely.

Cctv may not be 24/7. Only after closing time?

 

[Hats]

OK if we agree that this was a well planned homicide, we move on to the next logical question.

Who had the most to gain?

IMO it is either a financial gain or a crime of passion.

What about the possible motive of revenge/payback?

(Edit: seems others though the same as I was still typing]

 

[mondayschild]

I wonder if it related to division of assets (family or inheritance).

 

[Curiosity Cat]

Definitely...who had the most to gain?

 

[SleutherGirl]

Do we know what her financial situation is?

I wonder if it related to division of assets (family or inheritance).

Edit: She had three kids, a small business. What sort of money could that family even have? Probably not rolling in cash.

 

[Hats]

Based on The Runner, I think the police are very near now to making an arrest. But holding their cards very close ATM. IMO.

I don't think an arrent is imminent without them first locating the body.

It is very early days and I think there is a moderate likelihood they will find her remains, which will surely provide a lot more solid evidence.

It would be a big risk to arrest and charge someone without the body. They get just one chance to convict. They would want to have completely exhausted all avenues for recovering the body, as well as the passage of time before laying charges. This happened with the Kerry Whelan disappearance case. The body was never found, but investigators, after many years, took the calculated risk as that would likely be the only chance in achieving justice in the lifetime of the family and that of the perpetrator (Bruce Burrell).

What might be more imminent though could be an early morning raid with search warrants.

 

[Detective Willy]

Do we know what her financial situation is?


Edit: She had three kids, a small business. What sort of money could that family even have? Probably not rolling in cash.

I don’t think the long Victorian Lockdowns due to Covid would have helped if you were carrying a lot of debt at that time?

I’m imagining there was a massive decrease in the number of car accidents during that period due to less traffic on the roads.

The Dun and Bradstreet search that I posted about the company earlier today “estimated” the turnover would be $3M per year. I have no idea if that is a random guess or if they have a matrix they use. It is a well respected credit bureau though..

It has been reported that the family business have a staff of 30 so IMO this is a very small turnover number but hey, everybody needs a good accountant to make sure you don’t pay too much tax…

 

[Curiosity Cat]

I don’t think the long Victorian Lockdowns due to Covid would have helped if you were carrying a lot of debt at that time?

I’m imagining there was a massive decrease in the number of car accidents during that period due to less traffic on the roads.

The Dun and Bradstreet search that I posted about the company earlier today “estimated” the turnover would be $3M per year. I have no idea if that is a random guess or if they have a matrix they use. It is a well respected credit bureau though..

It has been reported that the family business have a staff of 30 so IMO this is a very small turnover number but hey, everybody needs a good accountant to make sure you don’t pay too much tax…

I wouldn't have any idea of finances, but just imagine if one of a couple wants to.leave a marriage and wants to split assets and another doesn't want to split the assets.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

Experts shed new light on Samantha Murphy case | OverSixty

A team of experts have discussed the possible scenarios of what happened to the missing Ballarat mum, and considered one potential clue that could mean she is still alive.

www.oversixty.com.au

 

[Curiosity Cat]

I don't think an arrent is imminent without them first locating the body.

It is very early days and I think there is a moderate likelihood they will find her remains, which will surely provide a lot more solid evidence.

It would be a big risk to arrest and charge someone without the body. They get just one chance to convict. They would want to have completely exhausted all avenues for recovering the body, as well as the passage of time before laying charges. This happened with the Kerry Whelan disappearance case. The body was never found, but investigators, after many years, took the calculated risk as that would likely be the only chance in achieving justice in the lifetime of the family and that of the perpetrator (Bruce Burrell).

What might be more imminent though could be an early morning raid with search warrants.

Quite right Hats, perhaps "arrest" is not quite right but, I do feel the police are getting close.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

How can a woman vanish without a trace? - ABC listen

On a Sunday morning more than three weeks ago, Ballarat woman Samantha Murphy set out for a run in dense bushland not far from her home. She was expected back mid-morning for a family gathering, but she never arrived. Police have now wound back their search for the missing mother, while...

www.abc.net.au

14 minute audio

 

[BreakingNews]

I believe the phone data/watch data would display if she had fallen into a mine shaft (watch shows a hard fall/phone would possibly ping/heart rate data). The police have ruled this out based on that data.

Do you mean that police have ruled out a medical episode, or ruled out she fell into a mine shaft? I thought they had ruled out all but foul play.

 

[BreakingNews]

The more perps,
The better chance somebody starts talking IMO.

Yes, except if they are from OMG. They won't stitch each other up. Even after they shoot each other.

 

[epictreasure]

This is true at least for Fitbit, I don’t know what program apple users use? But Fitbit I know you can share whole run locations

My interpretation was that not even Samantha’s login details would be required for this, but anyone who had access to her activities on the app. I’m not a runner, but my understanding is that friends often share their exercise activities in apps to motivate one another… this is an optional setting from what I understand. I may be incorrect on these points so if anyone is more familiar with apps like strata please chip in!

 

[epictreasure]

I

I hadn't viewed the Under Investigation episode, so thank you Imstilla.grandma for your post.

A comment made by Nigel Phair, (who formerly headed investigations at the Australian High-Tech Crime Centre, (AHTCC)) is IMO of particular interest:
"That means someone's done something active against those two devices and you have to know what you are doing to think I'm going to completely take these out," he said.
"It's not just turning them off, it's destroying them and then getting rid of that piece of evidence."
Tampering with devices takes significant effort but Phair explained though criminals may attempt to change SIM cards, mobile phones, if on, are still traceable."

IMO this was therefore no random crime. IMO this was a professional hit rather than a hit-and-run accident or personal "crime of passion". Very carefully planned and organised by, well "organised" people.

I thought this was not to put light on the person doing this cleanly but more so how they may have lacked mindfulness of
1. Imeii? Hardware on phone
2. Car tech
3. Others with access to apps

The person was sloppy enough that these devices pinged multiple times. If they were that tech savvy that would never have even happened

 

[Deleted member 339914]

I feel so very strongly that Sam is alive and being held captive. I pray that the police are having a really close look at anyone in the area with form on drugs and assault of women. The police should do some raids. I feel it's druggo hoons with hunting dogs ... that scene.

 

[SouthAussie]

I wonder if these days they might have an odour detecting gadget that could be lowered down into a mine shaft ?

Drone search? (Just thinking of the drone searches of the tunnels under Gaza.)