Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

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Nifty said:
Interesting the police have said MM is not a suspect at this stage, even if he was a suspect, the police won't say due to his kids living with him and family.

But he could have some involvement in organising
I don't think the attack was for MM himself, but for Sam
I do believe there is a motive, but It's hard to pinpoint which one. Business / Divorce
I think she has been ambushed by more than one person with a gun and made to get into the vehicle
The only way she would have been kept alive is for ransom, and we haven't heard of that
I think now she has been driven away and killed not long after that, the vehicle has either been involved in a small collision with a bush, fence while getting away quickly from there, or it was damaged beforehand
There could be a witness, who was walking there at the time
I am not sure if the vehicle has been repaired, seats removed, tyres changed, modified in some way
But CCTV at the business would show if that vehicle was driven in or out of the business/ and if there were unusual activity in the business that day and throughout the night
Or it's in a large backyard shed waiting for it to be transported somewhere else
There has been no reported car fires either
Click to expand...
There was a burnt out car found off Eureka Street (Sam's street) just two mornings ago, I posted it previously. Not saying it's related but it was mentioned in The Courier.
 

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So on the show UI they mentioned - someone possibly having access to SM's jogging/running routes via a APP and getting data from the watch.

Could this 2nd individual (possibly more than one party involved) being a person SM trusted (maybe female) to link watch data with - to track their runs/jogs. JMO

Just wondering if SM innocently and freely shared with another person her jogging data and this person is the accompanying associate of the perpetrator. MOO
 
bearbear said:
the person who did this is obviously pretty clever and thorough so im thinking its just one person responsible,
it seems really stupid to me to include an accomplice, if only you commit the crime you never have to worry about someone telling, the secret is only yours, only your conscience,
and people always talk, get drunk, boast, drop hints etc, its always a liability
Click to expand...
I
Curiousobserver said:
I am not sure how police could rule out anything at this point. Other than she is not where she is expected to be, and that her phone data suggests she was jogging along a reasonable route, there seems to be very little evidence of where she might be now or what may have happened to her.

Missing people are very frequently found in areas that were searched multiple times even when that search is conducted by trained personnel and dogs. There is an entire thread on this site devoted to instances where the missing were located in an area search multiple times. Therefore, I wouldn't rule out that she is not lying along that trail somewhere, which means she may have been a victim of a crime, or an accident, or a snake bite, or any number of dangerous animals including people.

Phone data frequently cuts out and many of my runs have large sections of the trail where no GPS was captured on my phone or watch. Most days its good, some days its terrible. That loss of signal some are reporting at the 7km mark could be misreported, and could also be a software glitch on her phone that caused GPS to drop. She may have made it much further.

MOO this will turn out to be 1 of 3 things: accidental (least likely), a stranger attack (most likely), or a close family member (next most likely).
Click to expand...
I thought sissy said they always have reception in those areas?
 
ProfCluezo said:
Ballarat: the Crime Capital?
Click to expand...

As at 2022 .........
  • Ballarat is in the 29th percentile for safety, meaning 71% of Victoria urban areas are safer than Ballarat and 29% of urban areas are more dangerous than Ballarat.
  • Common crime: steal from a motor vehicle.
  • The number of assault offences recorded in 2022 decreased by 3%
  • The number of deception offences recorded in 2022 decreased by 13%
  • The number of burglary offences recorded in 2022 increased by 28%
  • The number of theft offences recorded in 2022 increased by 22%
  • The number of robbery offences recorded in 2022 increased by 105%
  • The number of motor vehicle thefts recorded in 2022 increased by 24%
  • The number of vandalism offences (Property damage) recorded in 2022 increased by 2%

Ballarat city, VIC Crime Rate By Suburb: Is it safe?

Is Ballarat city a safe place to live in? Check the crime rate and statistics of each suburb in Ballarat to get the best answer.
aucrimerate.com aucrimerate.com
 
nightrider17 said:
So on the show UI they mentioned - someone possibly having access to SM's jogging/running routes via a APP and getting data from the watch.

Could this 2nd individual (possibly more than one party involved) being a person SM trusted (maybe female) to link watch data with - to track their runs/jogs. JMO

Just wondering if SM innocently and freely shared with another person her jogging data and this person is the accompanying associate of the perpetrator. MOO
Click to expand...

I don't have Apple products but I imagine that if you are using some kind of app or program within the phone/apple id to track fitness then it is potentially accessible to others? i.e. user account. From what we know, she's 51 (didn't grow up with internet/tech) so perhaps wouldn't necessarily be super savvy about how to protect things - and her open (public) Facebook has stuff like their car rego (from when it was stolen), a former home address and pics of her kids. I do think it is conceivable that she gave access to trusted people in her circle without a thought.
 
mondayschild said:
From what we know, she's 51 (didn't grow up with internet/tech) so perhaps wouldn't necessarily be super savvy about how to protect things
Click to expand...

The www became available for the public in April 1993. When Sam would have been about 20 years old.

She has likely had 30 years of increasing internet exposure, like the rest of us.
As well, her job would mean heavy computer use, involving financials and customer data which need to be kept secure.

A similar size tradie organisation that I work with even has cyber insurance to protect against cyber theft. And that is not a financial organisation ... simply a tradie one with typical security needs.

She should be aware and savvy.

imo

30 years ago, one decision altered the course of our connected world
 
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SouthAussie said:
The www became available for the public in April 1993. When Sam would have been about 20 years old.

She has likely had 30 years of increasing internet exposure, like the rest of us.

imo

30 years ago, one decision altered the course of our connected world
Click to expand...
That's true - perhaps the time frame is not what I meant as you make a good point that someone's awareness of internet/data safety isn't necessarily based on age. My comment was responding to the idea of her openness to share tracking info like runs/strava etc with others or her login etc based on how she has used things like facebook - pretty open and lots of personal info there.
 
Curiousobserver said:
I am not sure how police could rule out anything at this point. Other than she is not where she is expected to be, and that her phone data suggests she was jogging along a reasonable route, there seems to be very little evidence of where she might be now or what may have happened to her.

Missing people are very frequently found in areas that were searched multiple times even when that search is conducted by trained personnel and dogs. There is an entire thread on this site devoted to instances where the missing were located in an area search multiple times. Therefore, I wouldn't rule out that she is not lying along that trail somewhere, which means she may have been a victim of a crime, or an accident, or a snake bite, or any number of dangerous animals including people.

Phone data frequently cuts out and many of my runs have large sections of the trail where no GPS was captured on my phone or watch. Most days its good, some days its terrible. That loss of signal some are reporting at the 7km mark could be misreported, and could also be a software glitch on her phone that caused GPS to drop. She may have made it much further.

MOO this will turn out to be 1 of 3 things: accidental (least likely), a stranger attack (most likely), or a close family member (next most likely).
Click to expand...
It was reported on Under Investigation that phone reception is good in this area. The volunteer walkers were said to have no issue with phones not working throughout all their searches.
 
Really,
Killing somebody in relation to Business is so extreme!
And a mother of 3 kids to top it all.

It was obvious that such a killing would cause media circus and bring focus of LE to all aspects of victim's life, including business.

What could be so serious that led to murder?

I would think burning the Business might have been a method of organized criminals.
Or threats/intimidation.

But murdering a woman while she was jogging?

I really don't know what to think :oops:

But it seems to be personal and not business related.

I mean,
Are there deranged gangs(Mafia style) operating in Ballarat?
If yes, then Police surely have some informants, no?

Were there any other extreme business related crimes like this previously?

JMO
 
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We seem to be assuming the business had good CCTV. But we don't know that for sure. Could have been someone who knew how to turn it off. Or maybe as we have seen already, cctv doesn't seem to be a high priority for some. If I owed a $2m property with vintage cars etc I would have very good CCTV everywhere.
 
We visited Ballarat as tourists from New Zealand late last year. While it sounds like there is crime, there is also a highlight on the town. We did not feel unsafe at all and did not see any anti social behaviour. The bikies in the town are such a small % compared to New Zealand.

It is also worth to note as read some incorrect earlier posts that Apple Watches are available in both a GPS version (no cellular), and Cellular. Not all of them can be tracked without a phone unless you have an active connection for the Cellular Apple Watch. This covers all new versions as well as old. If SM only had a GPS version it could explain why it is not able to be tracked, if separated from her phone.
 
Warshawski said:
Imo Sam didn’t stumble upon a mine shaft & fall in. I think she was an intelligent woman who knew the area & stuck to the tracks. Looking at the area shown on UI last night, I thought it was quite beautiful & I could imagine that walkers / joggers / runners would find it quite therapeutic to traverse the area.

So what could have happened to her ?

Police have ruled out accidental injury, broken leg, snake bite etc, or a medical event, and seem to have also ruled out her own planned ‘disappearance’,

Which imo leaves ‘foul play’ :
* a random attack by some violent or sexual predator who happened to come across her at Mt Clear & acted on the spur of the moment
This I’ve discounted as it’s all too ‘clean’. Imo a random attack where Sam would’ve fought back, would leave traces of a struggle, maybe broken brush, possibly threads of clothes, maybe jewellery ( did she have earrings in ), maybe blood . The dogs I think will have picked up something ( surely dogs have been used there now they’re pinpointing it )

* a planned attack
Sadly I think that’s what it’s been. A very well thought out & planned offence, where she may not have had much opportunity at all to try to escape. I think she was quickly removed from the area, in what state I can’t begin to guess. Her phone is probably in water somewhere, so it’s useless, and they may’ve tossed the watch believing it useless without a working phone - police may have her watch, but irrespective it seems they’ve got all the tracking data Up To that Point .

* by who - and of course this is the sticking point.
The rumoured family DVO is not something I can postulate over because I have no details. IF the DVO was taken out by Sam / her family, it will surely have been well investigated by Police, so I’ll park that.

Police have said that MM is not a suspect ‘at this stage’.

I think it’s a result of something connected to the business, reneged on an agreement, cash jobs, upset competitors, blown someone’s cover, threatened to blow someone’s cover.
Samantha was probably easier to get at than Mick, and it sends a clear message.
Click to expand...
I agree completely.
SouthAussie said:
It could have been an act by a random attacker, and still have been planned. I don't believe the two are mutually exclusive.

As in, a random person knew he was going to attack someone that morning. Sam happened to be the unlucky one.

(I say "he" because of the presumption that this is some kind of male violence, but I guess there are scenarios where it could be violence by another female.)

imo
Click to expand...
After reading comments made during this week's the Under Investigation episode
Former Australia Federal Police officer and professor of cybersecurity, Nigel Phair told Liz Hayes on Channel 9's series Under Investigation with Liz Hayes he believes an "anomaly" or "change in the behaviour" of Murphy's data pattern may have prompted authorities to return to the Mount Clear area last Friday.

Phair formerly headed investigations at the Australian High Tech Crime Centre (AHTCC).

Phair explained that Murphy's iPhone and Apple Watch would monitor various biometric data such as heart rate, stride length, altitude and even detect falls, with both devices constantly logging her GPS coordinates.

Additionally, Murphy's iPhone can be precisely located using triangulation from nearby cell phone towers.

9now.nine.com.au

'Anomaly' in digital data could be clue to Samantha Murphy's disappearance

9now.nine.com.au 9now.nine.com.au
Warshawski said:
Imo Sam didn’t stumble upon a mine shaft & fall in. I think she was an intelligent woman who knew the area & stuck to the tracks. Looking at the area shown on UI last night, I thought it was quite beautiful & I could imagine that walkers / joggers / runners would find it quite therapeutic to traverse the area.

So what could have happened to her ?

Police have ruled out accidental injury, broken leg, snake bite etc, or a medical event, and seem to have also ruled out her own planned ‘disappearance’,

Which imo leaves ‘foul play’ :
* a random attack by some violent or sexual predator who happened to come across her at Mt Clear & acted on the spur of the moment
This I’ve discounted as it’s all too ‘clean’. Imo a random attack where Sam would’ve fought back, would leave traces of a struggle, maybe broken brush, possibly threads of clothes, maybe jewellery ( did she have earrings in ), maybe blood . The dogs I think will have picked up something ( surely dogs have been used there now they’re pinpointing it )

* a planned attack
Sadly I think that’s what it’s been. A very well thought out & planned offence, where she may not have had much opportunity at all to try to escape. I think she was quickly removed from the area, in what state I can’t begin to guess. Her phone is probably in water somewhere, so it’s useless, and they may’ve tossed the watch believing it useless without a working phone - police may have her watch, but irrespective it seems they’ve got all the tracking data Up To that Point .

* by who - and of course this is the sticking point.
The rumoured family DVO is not something I can postulate over because I have no details. IF the DVO was taken out by Sam / her family, it will surely have been well investigated by Police, so I’ll park that.

Police have said that MM is not a suspect ‘at this stage’.

I think it’s a result of something connected to the business, reneged on an agreement, cash jobs, upset competitors, blown someone’s cover, threatened to blow someone’s cover.
Samantha was probably easier to get at than Mick, and it sends a clear message.
Click to expand...

DBM
 
I also hope all neighbours were "x-rayed" by Police.
I cannot count how many times I read about silly neighbours' wars - for whatever reasons.

I remember reading about a murder,
simply because of a parking place war.
Geez! :rolleyes:
 
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