Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #5

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I have reported to Crime Stoppers a few times. Once was about someone in my building who had lots of visitors for short periods of time. Something not quite right. Police were here to arrest this drug dealer next morning. They had him on their radar, but didn't know where he currently lived.
Wow!
I always say that neighbours are the best security system :)

They see and hear everything hahaha
 
Just before the press conference on 23rd Feb, the police had released a formal statement about those early item/s of interest (says 22nd Feb). The link/content is now removed but you can grab this from google:

Victoria Police
https://www.police.vic.gov.au/search-continues-missing-woman-samantha-murphy

"22 Feb 2024 — A number of items have been located during the search for Samantha, however these have since been assessed and at this time are not believed..." (end google preview content).

I wish I had saved this.
 
I must admit, this case is on my mind a lot. I woke up this morning and had the idea of 'gingerbread crumbs'.

On 7th Feb, way before we had confirmation that SM did walk/jog through this area towards Mt Clear (confirmation in press conference 23rd Feb), LE found personal items belonging to SM.

We saw MM drive up and talk to LE at the scene, then news articles posted this message: "In short: Police on Wednesday discovered items of interest during their search for the missing Ballarat East mother, but later said they were not relevant to the case"

The thing that has been bugging me is the significance of the items found outside/at entrance to the park on Feb 7th - brief news link here.

I'm interested in anyone's ideas around:

1) why would possible personal items of hers outside the park that SM entered to run be irrelevant? (EDIT - the printed news articles don't state that the items belonged to Sam. They also don't state that they did not belong to her. The all just say that the items found were not deemed relevant)

2) how were LE able to confirm these items were not relevant to the case so quickly? (CCTV footage?)

3) why wouldn't we be told what they were if they were truly unconnected ?

4) were they perhaps 'dumped' at a later time point e.g. between 4th-7th Feb?

5) could this be SM leaving a 'gingerbread crumb' to suggest she was already aware of being followed?? (because you wouldn't dump things at the beginning of a run, you just wouldn't take them with you in the first place)

6) or was this again LE leaving a gingerbread crumb/hook to inform possible kidnapper/alleged perpetrator that they knew her movements etc (like the forensic tree sap photo shoot).

My guess is that they found items that could have been hers (hair clip? ear buds? necklace?), asked MM to come up and look at them, and he said they weren't hers, or possibly that she had lost whatever it was some time ago. So that made them probably not relevant. But most LE detectives I've known have been reluctant to say yes/no outright, because something that seems irrelevant now can become important in the light of new information.
 
Yes and when I read back all the articles from the time (that I can find) relating to these item/s of interest they show a huge police response and MM attending the scene in a car. I had this memory of it being reported that MM confirmed the belongings were hers and that was the reason he attended the scene - but I can't find anything where that is discussed so perhaps my memory is playing tricks on me.

The police told him and the media to go away

Sometimes police do telly porky pies to see who turns up and reactions, even if they haven't found anything at all
 
Correct me if I am wrong please. Wouldn't a smart watch health data indicate the time of death? I'm guessing the watch could still be tracked after that.
Yes.

It happened in another sad case I followed (actively) on WS.
Caroline Crouch.

Her Greek pilot husband suffocated her and the smart watch showed when her heart stopped beating :(
 

I was wondering why we had a photo of SM which appeared a few years old and just of recent they are now showing a more current photo. IMO

Could it be that they didn't want to show SM was wearing a necklace? because it appears she is in the above photo and generally I believe people usually keep them on. Maybe they have recovered that item? But that's just my opinion.
 
A bit soon to
An earlier post mentioned the golf course and anyone employed there. In my opinion the police need to check crim rec etc. of anyone working there esp. outside work like labouring and gardening, landscaping etc. JMO.
I am very frustrated that there has been no update from police. Is it possible for a reward to be offered at this stage for information that leads to the solving of this missing persons case. I believe that this guy has "associates". A reward might get a suspicious connection of an associate or of him thinking.
There needs to be some comms. The Ballarat community has worked so very hard to try to help Sam. They deserve some info even if there isn't much to say. I am so very sorry for Sam's family and those closest to her. This case is sending me crazy and I live thousands of kms away and don't even know Sam. I am so desperate for a breakthrough. Prayers for something this weekend.

offer a reward considering they're still working through a whole bunch of tips and surveillance.
 
Every time I get too down and pessimistic about ever finding Samantha, I remind myself of Carol Clay and Russell Hill's case, and how brilliant Victorian LE were in solving that, even though we thought at the time that nothing was happening.
 
“It is only very occasionally that a missing person case strikes a chord like this,” she told news.com.au.

She said Murphy was the "ideal victim" as going by the information available at the moment, she appears to have been living a "totally innocent life" as a "very normal, very average woman".

In a similar fashion to the disappearances of William Tyrrell and Cleo Smith, Prof Mallett says Murphy's case puts fear into Australians with the belief it could happen to anyone.

“A lot of people could say, ‘that could have been me’,” she said.

Veteran crime expert John Silvester agreed that Murphy's lack of "secrets" meant the case was particularly intriguing to the Australian public.

He offered the eerie theory that of the 300 locals involved in the search party, a potential killer could be among them.

"Police will also be considering that one of those searchers is the (alleged) killer in that they have inculcated themselves into that situation to be seen as part of the community, but also keeping an eye on what’s going on," he said.

Another theory discussed in recent days is the possibility Murphy has fallen down one of the city's former mine shafts left behind from a once-booming gold industry. Locals however say Murphy was well acquainted with the surrounding terrain and the idea she may have fallen in accidentally is not plausible.
 
I wonder if simply throwing the devices down a mineshaft would be enough to stop the ability of the devices to get a mobile or GPS signal. If it would make the devices seem to be off-air/non-operational.


GPS is a powerful navigation technology, but it doesn’t work as well inside buildings, underground or underwater. Link

Mobile phones operate on a high-frequency signal that's easily blocked by soil or concrete. Link
I think she was abducted near a road for convenience. She crossed 4 roads between home and disappearing. The red line is an approximation, the dot is Boak Road. Roads are partially marked in purple.

How close to the roads are the mineshafts?

I lean towards one person who saw her jogging, figured out her routine, figured out a convenient time for him to abduct her, and abducted her quickly and efficiently. I think she left the area in a vehicle, involuntarily.

1709343434875.png
 
Correct me if I am wrong please. Wouldn't a smart watch health data indicate the time of death? I'm guessing the watch could still be tracked after that.
Smart watch tracks heart rate and can be synced with Apple devices. When police identified an area near Boak Road as the location where something went wrong, I assumed that's where she was when her heart rate spiked.

The smart watch might have been disabled at that time. If not, it would also record the time when the heart stopped beating.
 
I think she was abducted near a road for convenience. She crossed 4 roads between home and disappearing. The red line is an approximation, the dot is Boak Road. Roads are partially marked in purple.

How close to the roads are the mineshafts?

I lean towards one person who saw her jogging, figured out her routine, figured out a convenient time for him to abduct her, and abducted her quickly and efficiently. I think she left the area in a vehicle, involuntarily.

View attachment 487378
This is a brilliant map thank you. For someone who has never been to Ballarat it's really helpful. Can someone tell me where the golf course is situated and can someone remind me why it became significant again? Also, what's south of Mt Clear ... suburbia or semi-rural holdings? Any run down old properties with pitbulls or similar dogs keeping people away?
 
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