Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #5

[ProfCluezo]

So, irrespective of which path Samantha took, why were dogs unable to detect her scent? This has been bothering me for some time now. Is there something someone could have sprayed to neutralise her scent? It just doesn’t seem plausible to me that no scent was detected if/when there appear to have been no other joggers/runners that morning? Something just doesn’t seem to be adding up…

 

[Dr Samoht]

Qu

Dr Samoht it sounds like you know the area well…. What do you think the chances are of an abduction potentially happening at 8am on a Sunday with no witnesses. Quite possible , Recreation Rd is a fast gravel road , a vehicle every one to two minutes that time of day it being a short cut route connecting Mt Clear to Melbourne bound traffic and vice versa . If the abduction happened on three tracks leading into Recreation Rd , namely Bailey Rd , Dozed track and Boak Rd these are much less travelled and thus a lesser chance of being observed .

 

[wecaff]

or shadow biking, or more than one observer working as part of a group.

That would take elaborate planning which very likely would involve multiple phones to communicate the progress of the ambush/attack

 

[mondayschild]

That would take elaborate planning which very likely would involve multiple phones to communicate the progress of the ambush/attack

I know. Like a circus.

The real answer will be much simpler - but we don't have it.

 

[SouthAussie]

So, irrespective of which path Samantha took, why were dogs unable to detect her scent? This has been bothering me for some time now. Is there something someone could have sprayed to neutralise her scent? It just doesn’t seem plausible to me that no scent was detected if/when there appear to have been no other joggers/runners that morning? Something just doesn’t seem to be adding up…

Dogs don't always get a hit. I stated one example (Gary Tweddle) earlier in the threads, but there are more examples of where the dogs couldn't track a person ... even though the person was later found somewhere in the vicinity, and had made their way on foot to that place.

There are lots of variables why that happens. Lots of links out there that will explain why that can happen.

imo

 

[ProfCluezo]

I can see why the two strongest theories thus far seem to be almost diametrically opposite to one another… !!

 

[Dr Samoht]

Mount Clear College is just there. I thought the cars parked in the photo was due to the college.

No the College has a separate road entry a little east of that photo on the south side of Rec Rd,
That little few hundred metres of the ‘bunny trail ‘ has recently just opened and is still a ‘work in progress ‘ … those parked vehicles most likely relate to the ‘opening ceremony ‘ or a FOCC ( friends of Canadian corridor ) working bee, they being the body behind the trails construction .

 

[PolyDot]

So, irrespective of which path Samantha took, why were dogs unable to detect her scent? This has been bothering me for some time now. Is there something someone could have sprayed to neutralise her scent? It just doesn’t seem plausible to me that no scent was detected if/when there appear to have been no other joggers/runners that morning? Something just doesn’t seem to be adding up…

Maybe she wasn’t on the track ., maybe her watch was but not her

 

[Bats]

View attachment 488242

This looks like an electricity hub station, close to where police think Samantha was taken, near the phone tower at Mt Clear and where police have been searching and believe in the area something happened,

this is most likely Samantha's turn around point at 7km from home, running from Boak Rd.

This building could have a camera as well


View attachment 488252

I'm not sure if this is helpful or not but when you posted this i immediately thought of a cold case in Melbourne. About 2 years ago new evidence was discovered about the perpetrator described as "Mr Cruel", where some of the abductions were discovered to be close to electricity stations.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news.com.au/national/victoria/crime/forensic-technology-links-mr-cruel-suspect-to-melbourne-electrical-industry/news-story/318bc9381837cde0682077c84be75ca0%3famp

 

[mondayschild]

@Bats that gave me a shiver - especially the description of the planning, lack of a 'trace', surveillance and 'intelligent'. Obviously fits a lot of repeat offenders (because they don't get caught) but it also seems to be similar info they were discussing as a possible profile for this case in the under investigation episode.

 

[ProfCluezo]

An aerial view could certainly help in terms of surveillance… and possibly no need to use mobile phones for communication either! How many people look upwards??

 

[Dr Samoht]

can you mark these places out on a map for us @Dr Samoht ? so we can visualise. It is hard to get a proper sense via google maps.

Here’s a close up … I don’t know how to mark over the screenshot but it’s fairly apparent, the electricity building right where Boak Rd ends at Rec rd .
Boak Rd is one big loop , starting towards the western end of Rec Rd and finishing east at that electricity building .

 

[SouthAussie]

@Bats that gave me a shiver - especially the description of the planning, lack of a 'trace', surveillance and 'intelligent'. Obviously fits a lot of repeat offenders (because they don't get caught) but it also seems to be similar info they were discussing as a possible profile for this case in the under investigation episode.

I was trying to find info today about whether or not runners/walkers/joggers are usually attacked by strangers (if they are attacked, of course).

I stumbled on an article (UK article) about how 94% of murders involve some kind of stalking. They studied 358 murders.

Stalking behaviour identified in 94% of murders, study shows

Researchers urge criminal justice professionals to take early intervention on ‘seemingly harmless’ obsessive behaviour

www.theguardian.com

 

[Hats]

Yes that is interesting that , as far as we know , no witnesses saw her jogging.
Maybe she was never on that track ..

I think too much is made of this historic track that has you believe that there are tourists parked every 100 meters and groups of walkers/joggers and cyclers in groups not far apart. I am not familiar with this particular area but familiar with many similar areas in NSW. This is Australian bush land and there are huge amounts of it for a small population.

 

[mondayschild]

quite a high % @SouthAussie

 

[ProfCluezo]

I don’t envy vicpol. The number of possibilities in this particular case seems so incredibly high as to make it seem almost impossible to solve. It’s good they’ve been able to rule out a medical episode or injury but almost everything else seems to remain firmly on the table still. My guess is the police have their heads down methodically searching through each and every item of information. Most will probably lead nowhere. Hopefully, though, from somewhere in the mix, a couple of things may start to point in a particular direction…

 

[Hats]

Here’s a close up … I don’t know how to mark over the screenshot but it’s fairly apparent, the electricity building right where Boak Rd ends at Rec rd .
Boak Rd is one big loop , starting towards the western end of Rec Rd and finishing east at that electricity building .

I am not sure what type of building this is but seems well secured with high barbwire fence. It is otherwise a very simple looking building and has an antenna on top of it I can't zoom in enough to make out this signs. One sign has a logo that someone may be able to identify.

If it was some sort of electricity sub station, wouldn't there be a lot of high voltage warning signs?

 

[mondayschild]

Here’s a close up … I don’t know how to mark over the screenshot but it’s fairly apparent, the electricity building right where Boak Rd ends at Rec rd .
Boak Rd is one big loop , starting towards the western end of Rec Rd and finishing east at that electricity building .

don't see a pic? I'm interested in what you said about the precise location of the water storage/tanks compared with the electrical monitoring station we can see in the google street view / posted earlier in the thread.

 

[ScottToorak]

Hi all, just thinking about possible motives. I have read a number of times how SM was an animal lover and was wondering if she had ever given evidence against a perpetrator or reported animal cruelty and or whether or not she may well have come across an act of animal cruelty on her run and this has led to her apparent demise.Outside an absolute hatred for her from someone close to her it is very hard to come across a motive that would see her apparent demise other than a random sicko playing out a fantasy on an individual who just happened to be in the wrong spot at the wrong time.

 

[mondayschild]

An aerial view could certainly help in terms of surveillance… and possibly no need to use mobile phones for communication either! How many people look upwards??

during the day, only birdwatchers or people watching their drones!