Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024

[tiff]

As brjakj pointed out, Samantha's phone pinged near Scotchmans Lead which is approx 20km from her home, but would make for a 40km round trip - ie almost marathon distance (42.195 ks) - and then go out for brunch? Something's not quite gelling right there. JMO

And then there’s she’s gone out for a run, and on the map she’s gone for a walk..

 

[sunapple]

To me, it’s a bit of a hint that they might suspect whoever is involved already because if they’ve not asked people to avoid the area then it shows low to no concern for other peoples safety as if the person involved only had intentions for Samantha. Just a suggestion

 

[Curiousobserver]

I agree. That's very close to official marathon distance. It does seem excessive, especially when you have an 11 am brunch to attend. JMO

Struck me early on as well. I run marathons and 10k runs are common. For training you are not typically doing more than 20K and perhaps 1 or 2 in a year at 40K. At that age you have to worry as much about injury as training.

I really am suspicious that she was going to run all the way to to the golf course and turn around. It is entirely possible and some people do that, but it is a bit on the edge of the bell-curve.

I would like to see evidence of what direction she went, or anyone who actually saw her or captured her on camera running that day. So far, none has been released.

 

[Witness 28]

Hi W28,
It sounds normal for her to run 10 to 20km on a Sunday morning. Maybe more.

Hi Bats, I wonder ,if who running shoes is missing? It's good the police are keeping an open mind, and yes if she's fit she could probably run the 10 to 20 kilometers no problems, but the problem we have here is she has disappeared, of the face of the earth, and let's remember it was very hot that day,not a good time to go for a jog , someone turn her phone off maybe the ping was to lead people there away from where she was actually in trouble

 

[tiff]

Up thread, article said it was not uncommon for her to do 10-20km runs

But best friend said she’d only started up running again, wouldn’t go further than 10/11km, and the noticeboard said she went for a walk. Sometime whos started up running again isn’t running, particularly at 51yo and after covid, they are walk, jog, run and repeat. 10/20 kms imo is ridiculous.

 

[Witness 28]

As brjakj pointed out, Samantha's phone pinged near Scotchmans Lead which is approx 20km from her home, but would make for a 40km round trip - ie almost marathon distance (42.195 ks) - and then go out for brunch? Something's not quite gelling right there. JMO

What was the temperature on the day she disappeared, it was very hot something doesn't gel

 

[Witness 28]

So, police are declaring another person was the seen jogger.
But, are they saying there is no proof she was even on a jog??
If the community was quite used to seeing her on her jogs, are police saying NO ONE saw her jogging.
Did family declare she went on a jog.
Confused.

 

[Bats]

Hi Bats, I wonder ,if who running shoes is missing? It's good the police are keeping an open mind, and yes if she's fit she could probably run the 10 to 20 kilometers no problems, but the problem we have here is she has disappeared, of the face of the earth, and let's remember it was very hot that day,not a good time to go for a jog , someone turn her phone off maybe the ping was to lead people there away from where she was actually in trouble

....well yes w28.... in that area there are brown snakes, tiger snakes, black snakes..... it really was the perfect morning for some of the deadliest creatures in the world to be out and about. 20c in the morning going to 40c in the arvo. Her phone may have been of little assistance if you're taught to sit tight and not move and you're 20 metres off a track with little reception. We really don't know....

 

[Witness 28]

So, police are declaring another person was the seen jogger.
But, are they saying there is no proof she was even on a jog??
If the community was quite used to seeing her on her jogs, are police saying NO ONE saw her jogging.
Did family declare she went on a jog.
Confused.

Good questions from both of you, if she was not seen jogging and a phone ping was to create a lie, and she did not have an accident?

 

[quiza]

After reading this entire thread the thing that is bothering me most is the phone. It was 7am you would assume that a responsible adult who knew they were going out the next day would have put their phone on charge so it is resonable to assume that the phone didn't go flat in the couple of hours between leaving the house and the last ping near the golf course which only leaves being turned off or the phone getting broken in some way. If the phone broke say hypothetically she had a fall depending what series apple watch she had she would still be able to alert someone using the watch especially if it was a new one as they have fall alert and gps tracking. Also police saying they are investigating cell phone tower data doesn't necessarily mean her data Cleo Smith was found by tracking cell phone tower data but it wasn't hers.

Secondly if you look at google street view of the street it is easy to see that houses in the general direction she was headed aren't all close together and some are quite a distance from the road and are unlikely to have CCTV that would have picked her up. The footage from the kennel that was determined not to be her is a good example the person caught on that camera was barely distinguishable as a person it is pretty much a vaguely human shaped spot moving across the distance.

Australian police are notoriously tight lipped about every case it's not just this one. They release what they deem useful and nothing that could compromise any potential future case.

As for the husband not searching thats not unusual here either they tend to stick to only qualified searchers such as police and SES unless they are really low on numbers or very remote. This is done for numerous reasons the 1st being police and SES are trained for it and the Australian bush can be a rough place but also if something is found the police and SES know what to do to make sure the scene is secure. But it's also for the families sake they don't want friends and family potentially finding their loved one dead or messing with evidence if a crime has been committed.

JMO

Completely agree with your analysis, particularly re the husband not looking. I think the Cleo case demonstrated the lessons learned in Tyrrell case - for a range of reasons both practical and tactical the family may be told not to search.

JMOO

 

[Witness 28]

....well yes w28.... in that area there are brown snakes, tiger snakes, black snakes..... it really was the perfect morning for some of the deadliest creatures in the world to be out and about. 20c in the morning going to 40c in the arvo. Her phone may have been of little assistance if you're taught to sit tight and not move and you're 20 metres off a track. We really don't know....

Very good point,

 

[ZombieKittie]

Yes the temps in Ballarat that day got to 37 degrees but when she left at 7am it was only around 13 degrees and it didn't reach 37 until after midday

 

[tiff]

What was the temperature on the day she disappeared, it was very hot something doesn't gel

About 18 degrees in the am as I remember. Fine for a walk /jog/run.IMO. Sun would be low. Go at 7:30 am, need to be at brunch by 11am. Half hour for shower and dress after exercise, 10 mins to travel (guess),10 mins to drink / stretch after exercise. That brings me to allow 2hrs 40 mins for exercise. Something has happened, and I don’t have a good feeling.

 

[The man]

Having read through this forum it is really interesting the number of possibilities and outcomes off this case. I do however believe that this is a stalker abduction case as she was a regular runner. I think someone could’ve easily fiqured out her routines and patterns then abducted her

 

[Witness 28]

I agree. That's very close to official marathon distance. It does seem excessive, especially when you have an 11 am brunch to attend. JMO

I feel for her daughter ,she's very upset, let's hope the police are very close to solving this

 

[tiff]

About 18 degrees in the am as I remember. Fine for a walk /jog/run.IMO. Sun would be low. Go at 7:30 am, need to be at brunch by 11am. Half hour for shower and dress after exercise, 10 mins to travel (guess),10 mins to drink / stretch after exercise. That brings me to allow 2hrs 40 mins for exercise. Something has happened, and I don’t have a good feeling.

My other opinion from this is if you wanted to disappear, you’d allow more than a 2hr 40 window to do it. So I would rule that out almost now,

 

[The man]

My other opinion from this is if you wanted to disappear, you’d allow more than a 2hr 40 window to do it. So I would rule that out almost now,

Agreed it’s just an odd circumstance her disappearance

 

[tiff]

I feel for her daughter ,she's very upset, let's hope the police are very close to solving this

We all feel for the kids. She must be 18 imo, otherwise the cops would have said not do it. Can’t imagine the pain thise kids are going thru.

 

[The man]

Is there a possibility as well of an accidental death from someone, e.g she got bit by a car on her run as from my understanding it was beside a road her running route. And this person wanted to cover it up and dump the body somewhere therefore turning the phone off as such ?

 

[Witness 28]

We all feel for the kids. She must be 18 imo, otherwise the cops would have said not do it. Can’t imagine the pain thise kids are going thru.

You're right, anyone who has let's say a family member go missing there'd be uncontrollable like the daughter, she's very brave ,I hope the police will find the person responsible for her disappearance very soon