Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat, 4 Feb 2024 *Arrest* #11

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jjleroche said:
Exactly. The police could not possibly be certain of that. IMO that repeated comment from Vicpol was made for a strategic reason.

I am aware that Ballarat has a reasonably large regional population by Australian standards - 130,000.

Nevertheless, I'm not at all convinced that the accused and Samantha did not know each other. My experience having lived in large regional locations informs my opinion. The children of both the Murphy and Stephenson families attended private colleges, and accordingly are likely to have attended functions where these colleges paired up for various events. The children of both families were of similar ages. IMO at the very least, they would have known who those from the other family were. IMO they are likely to have moved in similar circles.

The families both owned and operated businesses in Ballarat, and had done for many years. Quite aside from school-related connections, I find it very difficult to believe that the senior Murphy and Stephenson family members did not know each other. The various business/community related organisations and associated functions would also, in all likelihood bring them into contact over the years.

Additionally Orren Stephenson, the accused's father, played Australian Rules Football for the Richmond Football Club
www.afl.com.au

Orren's family affair

Orren Stephenson had three kids by the time he was 20, now he's reveling in sharing his AFL revival with those closest to him
www.afl.com.au www.afl.com.au

Samantha was known to be an avid Richmond fan. IMO that is possibly another reason whereby an additional contact between the families may have existed.

All MOO
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It’s possible that Samantha also knew his father, perhaps the accused misinterpreted the relationship and sought revenge
 
Porky1 said:
It’s possible that Samantha also knew his father, perhaps the accused misinterpreted the relationship and sought revenge
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I agree with you Porky1. IMO it's entirely possible that Samantha knew the accused's father - particularly as he was a former AFL player for Richmond, and Samantha was an avid Richmond supporter.

Additionally, the Stephenson family resided in close proximity to the Mt Clear area where Samantha frequently ran, so IMO it's not unreasonable to consider that the accused's father also ran in that area, and he and Samantha could have crossed paths, acknowledging each other as runners often do.

JMO
 
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Warshawski said:
I know that’s been reported SA, but I’m also sceptical … it’s all quite bizarre imo.
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I agree with you Warshawski. Bizarre IMHO also.

Much has been made of the "families were not known to one another" statements made by Vicpol.

For starters, Vicpol could not possibly know with certainty whether or not Samantha knew the accused.
Unfortunately she cannot speak for herself, and the accused is not talking (as far as we know).

IMHO such comments may have been made by Vicpol for strategic (and sound) reasons. The public is not
privy to all the information and evidence gathered in this case. Vicpol have a duty of care to protect the
public. There could well be other factors in this case of which we have no idea, which may (or may not
have prompted the Vicpol statements.

IMO it's also possible that the statements may have been made in order to mitigate further damage to the lives
of various people living in the district.

JMO
 
jjleroche said:
I agree with you Warshawski. Bizarre IMHO also.

Much has been made of the "families were not known to one another" statements made by Vicpol.

For starters, Vicpol could not possibly know with certainty whether or not Samantha knew the accused.
Unfortunately she cannot speak for herself, and the accused is not talking (as far as we know).

IMHO such comments may have been made by Vicpol for strategic (and sound) reasons. The public is not
privy to all the information and evidence gathered in this case. Vicpol have a duty of care to protect the
public. There could well be other factors in this case of which we have no idea, which may (or may not
have prompted the Vicpol statements.

IMO it's also possible that the statements may have been made in order to mitigate further damage to the lives
of various people living in the district.

JMO
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Agreed. My kids primary school has a prominent afl football family and id be very surprised if anyone at school didnt know who they were.
 
During the press conference Shane Patton was asked by a journalist "You said he wasn’t known to the family, was he known to Samantha?”. SP replies, "I don’t have that knowledge, I don’t believe that to be the case".
IMO SP is being straightforward and answering honestly.

SP previously described the investigation as painstaking and methodical, I would imagine that would include establishing any meaningful links between PS and Sam that would have relevance to the crime. Very possible that no evidence had been found to support the two knowing each other.

In addition to the above, the police may know the circumstances that led to the murder and perhaps evidence pointed to Sam being a victim of a random attack. An example, Sam witnessed dangerous driving or some other bad behaviour, an altercation takes place and PS kills her in a rage, PS lets some of the details slip to one of his mates.
 
Warshawski said:
I know that’s been reported SA, but I’m also sceptical … it’s all quite bizarre imo.
Click to expand...

I'm really not skeptical. So what if people in town knew 'who' his father was. Doesn't mean they moved in the same circles or had any contact.

We are speaking of a young person who has had troubles for a good part of his life, if not all of it. I won't repeat all of the troubles due to sub judice (and I am not sure what will be considered a breach on the forum), but the links are all in past threads.

It is no big shock to me that he is now alleged to have murdered an innocent runner. Might be no big shock to his parents either - though undoubtably a huge disappointment, humiliation, and sorrow for them. Seems that they might have been trying hard to keep him on track for a long time, involving him in footy, changing his schools, employing him as an apprentice.

imo
 
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Trooper said:
Just your common or garden killer ... the odds are more likely.
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I agree with the common garden variety killer take.

I’ve just watched (and recommend) the “Murder at the end of the world” series (on Disney). The storyline focuses on an amateur sleuth unravelling a few dark and twisting mysteries. I binged the lot on a plane ride and this quote from it was made in response to one of the characters obsessing over a killer. It made me think of PS, and the rest.

“Who cares about him? He’s nothing. He’s the result of faulty programming. He’s the juice concentrate of a system that needs to be fed dead bodies in order to survive. He’s boring and predictable, like the most basic code cycling over and over again until all the women are destroyed and the world just burns. You want the killer to have meaning and he doesn’t have meaning.”
 
SouthAussie said:
I'm really not skeptical. So what if people in town knew 'who' his father was. Doesn't mean they moved in the same circles or had any contact.

We are speaking of a young person who has had troubles for a good part of his life, if not all of it. I won't repeat all of the troubles due to sub judice (and I am not sure what will be considered a breach on the forum), but the links are all in past threads.

It is no big shock to me that he is now alleged to have murdered an innocent runner. Might be no big shock to his parents either - though undoubtably a huge disappointment, humiliation, and sorrow for them. Seems that they might have been trying hard to keep him on track for a long time, involving him in footy, changing his schools, employing him as an apprentice.

imo
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100% - He’s completely unremarkable.

(Allegedly)
Fits the bill for a violent offender without any deviation from the norm: Male, early to mid 20’s, possibly a bit of a history with the police, female victim.

The only factor in the case he might expect to garner any attention from is that he’s been lucky that the police haven’t found Samantha’s remains.
And i’ll eat my hat if it’s because he’s a criminal mastermind and not just dumb luck paired with the fact they are surrounded by extensive bushland, that is by nature difficult to search extensively and impossible to search entirely.

The most “exciting” thing about him (for the media that is) is that his Dad played in the AFL years back. Without that he’d be even more unremarkable, with no real achievements of his own to speak of, and if he is indeed found guilty for Samantha’s death, he’s not likely to achieve much worthwhile in the years ahead either. Congrats on being a waste of space mate. Keeping his mouth shut might make him feel special, but it doesn’t make him anything special and nor does anything else I’ve read about him.

Rightly, the police haven’t commented on whether the accused’s family have been assisting with investigations either.
Given by all reports his family are good and fine people, it’s fairly likely at some point his father has spoken with investigators and given honest insight on questions they may have, questions like “Did you know Samantha Murphy? Do you know if your son did?” Shocker I know.
 
CredibleSauce said:
100% - He’s completely unremarkable.
The most “exciting” thing about him (for the media that is) is that his Dad played in the AFL years back. Without that he’d be even more unremarkable, with no real achievements of his own to speak of, and if he is indeed found guilty for Samantha’s death, he’s not likely to achieve much worthwhile in the years ahead either. Congrats on being a waste of space mate. Keeping his mouth shut might make him feel special, but it doesn’t make him anything special and nor does anything else I’ve read about him.
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Absolutely. I think he felt pretty confident with the disposal of the body and has to date banked on it, and any evidence, not being found, hence his silence. Probably was a game for him of watch & wait.

From what we were privy to, PS’s Barrister was announced straight after the phone was found by the dam. The police weren’t hiding the find and if it was tactical on their behalf it appears to have forced PS’s hand, even a little. If this is so, the reported unprecedented amount of evidence including extensive CCTV footage would surely feel like an avalanche and have pushed him right off his silent perch. Yet the body remains unfound. Is he simply resigned to his fate and feels like there’s nothing to gain or lose now, or I don’t want her found because of what will be found?
MOO
 
CredibleSauce said:
100% - He’s completely unremarkable.

(Allegedly)
Fits the bill for a violent offender without any deviation from the norm: Male, early to mid 20’s, possibly a bit of a history with the police, female victim.

The only factor in the case he might expect to garner any attention from is that he’s been lucky that the police haven’t found Samantha’s remains.
And i’ll eat my hat if it’s because he’s a criminal mastermind and not just dumb luck paired with the fact they are surrounded by extensive bushland, that is by nature difficult to search extensively and impossible to search entirely.

The most “exciting” thing about him (for the media that is) is that his Dad played in the AFL years back. Without that he’d be even more unremarkable, with no real achievements of his own to speak of, and if he is indeed found guilty for Samantha’s death, he’s not likely to achieve much worthwhile in the years ahead either. Congrats on being a waste of space mate. Keeping his mouth shut might make him feel special, but it doesn’t make him anything special and nor does anything else I’ve read about him.

Rightly, the police haven’t commented on whether the accused’s family have been assisting with investigations either.
Given by all reports his family are good and fine people, it’s fairly likely at some point his father has spoken with investigators and given honest insight on questions they may have, questions like “Did you know Samantha Murphy? Do you know if your son did?” Shocker I know.
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I 110% agree !

It seems to me that he is not playing to the general public, what can they do for him? nothing. He is eyeing off his future lifetime audience, , ie, those in maximum. To those, he has to appear as impervious to all . Hence, the silence. It has currency, inside, where he is headed for,, he'll be among some ghastly companions, men/ boys who look exactly like him, ordinary, white, sporty, tradies, etc.. who do dreadful things to people. Who might do dreadful things to him, it's not unknown. Poor old Carl Williams, he didn't turn around fast enough, and that was the end of Carl.

So he has to invent a 'rep' before those doors clang behind him.
 
Trooper said:
I 110% agree !

It seems to me that he is not playing to the general public, what can they do for him? nothing. He is eyeing off his future lifetime audience, , ie, those in maximum. To those, he has to appear as impervious to all . Hence, the silence. It has currency, inside, where he is headed for,, he'll be among some ghastly companions, men/ boys who look exactly like him, ordinary, white, sporty, tradies, etc.. who do dreadful things to people. Who might do dreadful things to him, it's not unknown. Poor old Carl Williams, he didn't turn around fast enough, and that was the end of Carl.

So he has to invent a 'rep' before those doors clang behind him.
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Do you see him as capable of being such a strategist? I know anything’s possible as we don’t know him but do you think he had the foresight to work on his ‘rep’ from the get go, or has he just been hedging his bets all of this time?
 
Rocket333 said:
Do you see him as capable of being such a strategist? I know anything’s possible as we don’t know him but do you think he had the foresight to work on his ‘rep’ from the get go, or has he just been hedging his bets all of this time?
Click to expand...
From the moment the Homicide squad knocked on the door. His fall back plan, perhaps.. He himself probably thought he'd pulled off the cleverest murder since the Pyjama Girl, full of himself, strolling off to work, hearing everyone talk about it, all their wacky theories, she's run off, he did it, the bikes, the Freemasons, the Knights of the Southern Cross, all the usual suspects etc. I'd bet he threw a few spanners of theories in the spokes of folk's conversations, and all.

He had silence down to a fine art, really. For a fortnight, or even three weeks, even while another murder took place just down the road, (Hannah MacGuire ) and then, incredibly a double murder (Ian Butler murdered Rebecca Young then himself ) as well, while all around him people were searching their paddocks, and forests, and old bush tracks and up and down gullies and old mines, police on every corner, SES, Army, etc, he maintained his schedule, his routine without a hitch, or a dropped word. No one suspected him, until the police got wind of some CCTV somewhere.

He was practising silence long before he was picked up and hurled in the back of the divvy van.

A capable strategist,,, traces of, perhaps, certainly a capable and well practised liar, and this requires a firm grip on strategy. A lucky opportunist, as a hell of a lot of common murderers are.

We are nearly at 60 women being murdered this year, so the majority of those killers were lucky ( temporarily ) opportunists , and some of those murderers still are very very lucky, like the bloke who murdered the lady who's body has just been found in Coffs Harbour. ...his life is on the clock now, though.

(Ian Butler was associated with the Banditos Outlaw Motorcycle Gang and called himself ‘Sheriff’. in case anyone was interested , apparently he was only inclined to kill women, in front of his own children, too. tough guy...)
 
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Rocket333 said:
Do you see him as capable of being such a strategist? I know anything’s possible as we don’t know him but do you think he had the foresight to work on his ‘rep’ from the get go, or has he just been hedging his bets all of this time?
Click to expand...
My thinking also. He doesn't seem to be all that good at pulling together a good life for himself before this year.
 
Trooper said:
From the moment the Homicide squad knocked on the door. His fall back plan, perhaps.. He himself probably thought he'd pulled off the cleverest murder since the Pyjama Girl, full of himself, strolling off to work, hearing everyone talk about it, all their wacky theories, she's run off, he did it, the bikes, the Freemasons, the Knights of the Southern Cross, all the usual suspects etc. I'd bet he threw a few spanners of theories in the spokes of folk's conversations, and all.

He had silence down to a fine art, really. For a fortnight, or even three weeks, even while another murder took place just down the road, (Hannah MacGuire ) and then, incredibly a double murder (Ian Butler murdered Rebecca Young then himself ) as well, while all around him people were searching their paddocks, and forests, and old bush tracks and up and down gullies and old mines, police on every corner, SES, Army, etc, he maintained his schedule, his routine without a hitch, or a dropped word. No one suspected him, until the police got wind of some CCTV somewhere.

He was practising silence long before he was picked up and hurled in the back of the divvy van.

A capable strategist,,, traces of, perhaps, certainly a capable and well practised liar, and this requires a firm grip on strategy. A lucky opportunist, as a hell of a lot of common murderers are.

We are nearly at 60 women being murdered this year, so the majority of those killers were lucky ( temporarily ) opportunists , and some of those murderers still are very very lucky, like the bloke who murdered the lady who's body has just been found in Coffs Harbour. ...his life is on the clock now, though.

(Ian Butler was associated with the Banditos Outlaw Motorcycle Gang and called himself ‘Sheriff’. in case anyone was interested , apparently he was only inclined to kill women, in front of his own children, too. tough guy...)
Click to expand...
Ok, you win. Writing like John Grisham always helps your case a lot too haha. I attempted to swap places and imagined going about my life after committing such an act, and quickly realised I’d crack within a week and be pleading for a deal or some mercy (plus wanting to make amends). He’ll be fine in maximum.
 
Rocket333 said:
Ok, you win. Writing like John Grisham always helps your case a lot too haha. I attempted to swap places and imagined going about my life after committing such an act, and quickly realised I’d crack within a week and be pleading for a deal or some mercy (plus wanting to make amends). He’ll be fine in maximum.
Click to expand...

I don't think we can ever compare what 'we' would do with what a murderer does. We don't think like they do.

imo
 
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