Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat, 4 Feb 2024 *Arrest* #11

[australianwebsleuth]

They also searched Brown Hill & Black Hill & Nerrina

They have searched areas including Buninyong, Ballarat East, Mount Clear, Brown Hill, Nerrina, Black Hill, Scotchmans Lead, Mount Helen and the Woowookurung Regional Park.

No new leads and a tight lid on protracted investigation — what we know about Samantha Murphy's disappearance

A "top priority" investigation, numerous police interviews and a supportive community effort have been features of a search in the month since Ballarat mum Samantha Murphy disappeared.

www.abc.net.au

View attachment 528327

So they searched brown hill and black hill prior to the arrest.

 

[drsleuth]

So they searched brown hill and black hill prior to the arrest.

Yes

 

[Rocket333]

I’m not familiar with Ballarat and appreciate there’s a lack of scaling and there’s more search areas, but is this the general gist of where things lie?

 

[australianwebsleuth]

After looking at a map, it appears there is extensive bushland in this region. Lal Lal to the east of Buninyong has a dam/lake and a picnic area. It's where a woman who was also running was attacked a year earlier. It's reasonably close to Scotsburn. Again heavily wooded with multiple fire trails. There are mines and a steep gorge. It looks like an area that he would have visited growing up. He may know it well. It is my best bet for where he could of disposed of a body.

First Nations advocate hit with 'rock tied to the end of the stick' in weekend run attack

Sissy Austin, a former member of the First Peoples' Assembly of Victoria has been brutally attacked by a man wielding a makeshift club during a weekend run through a state forest near Ballarat.

www.abc.net.au

 

[drsleuth]

From what I can tell, yes. The other sites including brown and black hill were searched prior to any arrest.

BBM : What significance does that have, as opposed to after his arrest?

 

[australianwebsleuth]

BBM : What significance does that have, as opposed to after his arrest?

They did not have the phone pings and were not necessarily looking for someone who was murdered or even have a suspect.

 

[Trooper]

Considering the 'success' of the disappearance of Mrs Murphy's body, it is not unreasonable to factor in that he may have prepared the place to hide the body long before . Not necessarily Mrs Murphy's body, per se , but any woman's body that became awkward for him, that told an incriminating tale about him.

Which presupposes that the premeditation element may have been a long time incubating. The factor of surprise being whichever victim he assigned as 'the one.'

Nobody in particular, but whoever crossed his path, he had everything ready, perhaps... tools, hiding place, transport, change of clothing, all the details ( except, we can presume, one major , colossal detail he forgot, hence 'hours of CCTV ).. not an impulse, not a whim, but a long imagined fantasy, with regularly updated details in his mind...

 

[Warshawski]

Did he enter the plea?

No Plea has been entered so far

 

[Dotta]

No Plea has been entered so far

I know.
It was a rhetorical question

 

[drsleuth]

They did not have the phone pings and were not necessarily looking for someone who was murdered or even have a suspect.

Sorry I disagree, pretty sure when this article as written ( Sun 3rd March ) , that police believed Sam was likely dead & they had PS in their sights. He was arrested on March the 6th ) & it was reported that they had been watching him for 2 weeks from memory?

They didn't just magically come up with PS overnight IMO

Feb 23rd 2024 Vic Pol announce a new search in the Mount Clear based on new mobile phone data.

No new leads and a tight lid on protracted investigation — what we know about Samantha Murphy's disappearance

A "top priority" investigation, numerous police interviews and a supportive community effort have been features of a search in the month since Ballarat mum Samantha Murphy disappeared.

www.abc.net.au

Chronology of events​

• February 4, 7am, Samantha Murphy leaves Ballarat East home to go for a run
• February 4, 11am, Ms Murphy's family sounds the alarm when she doesn't return from her run in time for a brunch
• February 5 - 10, Ground searches occur over days throughout the forest and outer Ballarat suburbs
• February 10, Search is scaled down by Victoria Police who confirm Ms Murphy's disappearance is being treated as suspicious
• February 23, Victoria Police announce a renewed search in the Mount Clear area based on new mobile phone data
• February 24, Hundreds of people join together to search through the outskirts of Ballarat

 

[australianwebsleuth]

Considering the 'success' of the disappearance of Mrs Murphy's body, it is not unreasonable to factor in that he may have prepared the place to hide the body long before . Not necessarily Mrs Murphy's body, per se , but any woman's body that became awkward for him, that told an incriminating tale about him.

Which presupposes that the premeditation element may have been a long time incubating. The factor of surprise being whichever victim he assigned as 'the one.'

Nobody in particular, but whoever crossed his path, he had everything ready, perhaps... tools, hiding place, transport, change of clothing, all the details ( except, we can presume, one major , colossal detail he forgot, hence 'hours of CCTV ).. not an impulse, not a whim, but a long imagined fantasy, with regularly updated details in his mind...

Pre meditation would be important to know. An unprovoked attack on a woman running on a trail is not that common. To have a woman attacked about a year after a similar attack in the same region suggests perhaps an anniversary event. He may be responsible for both and was pre-meditated. The attack at Lal Lal was a blitz attack and he appeared to be waiting for her.

 

[drsleuth]

I've just made a map with the radius from Mount Clear



Red = 15kms
Yellow = 20kms
Blue = 25kms
Pink = 30kms

Lots of hiding places ..............

Individually

15km Radius from Mount Clear


20km Radius from Mount Clear



25km radius from Mount Clear



30km radius from Mount Clear



And here is a 60km radius

 

[australianwebsleuth]

Sorry I disagree, pretty sure when this article as written ( Sun 3rd March ) , that police believed Sam was likely dead & they had PS in their sights. He was arrested on March the 6th ) & it was reported that they had been watching him for 2 weeks from memory?

They didn't just magically come up with PS overnight IMO

Feb 23rd 2024 Vic Pol announce a new search in the Mount Clear based on new mobile phone data.

No new leads and a tight lid on protracted investigation — what we know about Samantha Murphy's disappearance

A "top priority" investigation, numerous police interviews and a supportive community effort have been features of a search in the month since Ballarat mum Samantha Murphy disappeared.

www.abc.net.au

Chronology of events​

• February 4, 7am, Samantha Murphy leaves Ballarat East home to go for a run
• February 4, 11am, Ms Murphy's family sounds the alarm when she doesn't return from her run in time for a brunch
• February 5 - 10, Ground searches occur over days throughout the forest and outer Ballarat suburbs
• February 10, Search is scaled down by Victoria Police who confirm Ms Murphy's disappearance is being treated as suspicious
• February 23, Victoria Police announce a renewed search in the Mount Clear area based on new mobile phone data
• February 24, Hundreds of people join together to search through the outskirts of Ballarat

I disagree with you. This is how I read the articles.

Exactly when was the search of black and brown hill? The article was written on 3rd March. I suspect that given Black and Brown hill are close to her home that it was on 5th to 10th February that this area was searched. Before he was even the radar. Search is scaled down February 10. Remember it is not a police article!

Here is the announcement.
MSN 6th February.

February 23rd was when the investigation likely changed. Yes you are right about watching him for two weeks.

 

[Trooper]

I've just made a map with the radius from Mount Clear

View attachment 528344

Red = 15kms
Yellow = 20kms
Blue = 25kms
Pink = 30kms

Lots of hiding places ..............

Terrific map, DR S..... If I had to throw a dart at it, I'd go north west or north, not east, not straight west, not south...

But if I was a geoprofiler, I'd know his habits, his childhood footprints, his teenage rambles, his adult explorations , his friends habitats, his work patterns.. etc..... and probably get a completely different direction!

 

[Warshawski]

The alarm was raised about 12.30 pm ? She had travelled about 7 km after leaving her home at 7.30. Attacked about 8.30 am. This leaves a 3 hour time period to move the body from the Canadian state forrest. Initially they were not looking for a murder victim. He could have taken her just about anywhere in that time frame.

That's why I think that concentrating on locations well known to the defendant is a better way forward as the Korean research suggests. (90% of victims are dumped at locations known to the assailant).We know they searched the Enfield state forrest, suggesting some intelligence was acted upon. The search for the phone suggests some other intelligence (his phone gps?). He probably turned his phone off and disabled location services as they would already know where he took her.

I think the best way forward is to look at his life and come up with areas to look at.

I think it was quite a bit earlier than 12.30 pm that Mick tried to ring her, and her phone was switched off - which it never was apparently - so that’s what alarmed him imo. Not sure though what time he made the call to Police - I’ve a hunch he may’ve gone for a drive to look for her first.

If I recall correctly she was expected home by 10 am to get ready to go out to lunch ( unsure if was just her going or Mick too / or a family do)
I think he was outside doing chores & asked one of the kids if she was home .. when he got the Negative answer, he tried to call her.

But I agree with your comments as BBM above - it would’ve taken him no time to put her in his vehicle and drive off somewhere, and having grown up in the area I imagine he knew the surrounds pretty well.
TBH, we don’t even know what vehicle he had there at his disposal, although it was reported that a 4WD was towed from the house where he was arrested.

AJMO

 

[Rocket333]

I've just made a map with the radius from Mount Clear

View attachment 528344

Red = 15kms
Yellow = 20kms
Blue = 25kms
Pink = 30kms

Lots of hiding places ..............

Great mapping Doc. His home, her home, Woowookarung, the dam and the known search areas are in the red circle, right? Enfield State Park expands into the blue. Do we know of any searches occurring beyond the red or blue areas?

 

[drsleuth]

Terrific map, DR S..... If I had to throw a dart at it, I'd go north west or north, not east, not straight west, not south...

But if I was a geoprofiler, I'd know his habits, his childhood footprints, his teenage rambles, his adult explorations , his friends habitats, his work patterns.. etc..... and probably get a completely different direction!

Thanks, you can have a play around with it here

Draw a circle with a radius on a map

www.mapdevelopers.com

 

[drsleuth]

Great mapping Doc. His home, her home, Woowookarung, the dam and the known search areas are in the red circle, right? Enfield State Park expands into the blue. Do we know of any searches occurring beyond the red or blue areas?

Not that I can remember

 

[SouthAussie]

Great mapping Doc. His home, her home, Woowookarung, the dam and the known search areas are in the red circle, right? Enfield State Park expands into the blue. Do we know of any searches occurring beyond the red or blue areas?

I think the furthest that we have heard about is Enfield State Forest. Which kinda fits the profiling of "within 30km" that I posted about yesterday.

I also think that they are searching South/SSW because the final pings came from that sector of the tower. The sector that covers that area.

Perhaps they also have relevant GPS data, and possibly CCTV/dash cam data. IDK

 

[drsleuth]

Even a 5km radius from Mount Clear there is lots of bush / forrest