Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat, 4 Feb 2024 *Arrest* #11

[drsleuth]

I guess there's no way Samantha was alive at the time the phone was chucked? Like, he lured her into his car, they went to the house on this property which he knew was vacant at the time (supposition), she realized she was in danger and pretended she didn't so as to get a chance to escape . . . then she was running away and trying to use her phone at the same time, he caught her before she got to the road and in a fury threw her phone where she couldn't reach it, into the dam.

But police are saying she was allegedly murdered @ Mount Clear

 

[drsleuth]

It also looks like Skirkas Road is a quiet, unlit, unsealed back road shortcut from the dam to PS’s home.

Yep. They must have had good reason to spend so long in there.

 

[Rocket333]

I guess there's no way Samantha was alive at the time the phone was chucked? Like, he lured her into his car, they went to the house on this property which he knew was vacant at the time (supposition), she realized she was in danger and pretended she didn't so as to get a chance to escape . . . then she was running away and trying to use her phone at the same time, he caught her before she got to the road and in a fury threw her phone where she couldn't reach it, into the dam.

But police are saying she was allegedly murdered @ Mount Clear

“Victoria Police Chief Commissioner Shane Patton said on Thursday police will allege Ms Murphy died on the day she disappeared in Mount Clear, where Stephenson's parents live, and about 6km away from where she lived with her family. It's also about 12km away from the accused's home in Scotsburn.”

How cops closed in on missing mum's alleged killer two weeks ago

No trace of the mother-of-three has been found and a 22-year-old man from the nearby suburb of Scotsburn was on Thursday charged with her alleged murder.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[drsleuth]

Interesting that you can't do a google drive down parts of Yendon No 2 Road.....looks like a whole area has been blocked

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

www.google.com

 

[SouthAussie]

I guess there's no way Samantha was alive at the time the phone was chucked? Like, he lured her into his car, they went to the house on this property which he knew was vacant at the time (supposition), she realized she was in danger and pretended she didn't so as to get a chance to escape . . . then she was running away and trying to use her phone at the same time, he caught her before she got to the road and in a fury threw her phone where she couldn't reach it, into the dam.

ABC and The Age articles say that Sam died at Mt Clear and/or was deliberately attacked at Mt Clear, and quote Shane Patton as being the one to say that.


On Thursday, Victoria Police Chief Commissioner Shane Patton said police would allege Ms Murphy died in a "deliberate attack" in the Ballarat suburb of Mount Clear.
Samantha Murphy's accused killer Patrick Orren Stephenson named after suppression order ends


Son of ex-AFL player faces court charged with murdering Ballarat mother Samantha Murphy

 

[Rocket333]

There’s no mention of any locations beyond the local area or further afield yet.
The homes, the forest, the dam, the search areas, the roads mentioned (“east of Geelong Road”, “Skirkas Road etc) are all near PS’s home and part of his familiar stomping ground. Then there’s his car which wouldn’t really blend into any natural landscape.

Makes you suspect he didn’t have a lot of time or privacy, and needed to get home and resume “normal” asap due to his family, mates and/or girlfriend (who he was living with) wanting him.

CFA crews withdrawn from Samantha Murphy search as more detectives join case

Police are mystified about the missing Ballarat woman's movements "from the moment she left home" as they make another appeal for public help and missing persons unit detectives take charge.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Rocket333]

What’s that weird building up on hill opposite his home on Yendon Road?

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

maps.app.goo.gl

 

[JLZ]

ABC and The Age articles say that Sam died at Mt Clear and/or was deliberately attacked at Mt Clear, and quote Shane Patton as being the one to say that.


On Thursday, Victoria Police Chief Commissioner Shane Patton said police would allege Ms Murphy died in a "deliberate attack" in the Ballarat suburb of Mount Clear.
Samantha Murphy's accused killer Patrick Orren Stephenson named after suppression order ends

View attachment 529759
Son of ex-AFL player faces court charged with murdering Ballarat mother Samantha Murphy

Not knowing the evidence, I'm not sure I accept on police allegation that Samantha died at Mt Clear around 8am. I think there might be other interpretations of the evidence. But on the other hand, why would she take off her watch, or switch off her phone, to get in a car with a stranger pleading for help?

 

[Rocket333]

What’s that weird building up on hill opposite his home on Yendon Road?

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

maps.app.goo.gl

Got it. It’s the ‘Sky Barrel on the edge of an extinct volcano’ accommodation.

It looks over PS’s home. Could’ve been a great stake-out joint during surveillance. Bet it’s got cctv too.

Worlds only Sky Barrel on edge of Extinct Volcano | Buninyong Accommodation

Discover The Skybarrel - The only villa of its type in the world and your ultimate retreat nestled atop the majestic Mt Buninyong. Perched amidst the clouds, this unique and captivating property offers an unforgettable getaway experience like no other. From the moment you arrive, you'll be swept...

discoverdaylesford.com

 

[SouthAussie]

Not knowing the evidence, I'm not sure I accept on police allegation that Samantha died at Mt Clear around 8am. I think there might be other interpretations of the evidence. But on the other hand, why would she take off her watch, or switch off her phone, to get in a car with a stranger pleading for help?

I think that we have speculated before that data from Sam's watch showed her heart rate/blood pressure/etc suddenly spike (during a sudden attack) and then all of them slowly ebb away (as she died).

IIRC a couple of other cases where this kind of evidence was shown were given as reference points, back in the thread.

I gave one South Australian case as a reference ... will try to find the link again and add it.


ETA link:
Ms Matteo said the data showed activity consistent with Myrna Nilsson being ambushed and attacked as she walked into her home just after 6:30pm.

She said it then showed activity and heart rate measurements consistent with her body going into shock and losing consciousness.
"The deceased must have been attacked at around 6:38pm and had certainly died by 6:45pm," she said.
Smartwatch data helped police make arrest in Adelaide murder case, court hears

 

[JLZ]

I think that we have speculated before that data from Sam's watch showed her heart rate/blood pressure/etc suddenly spike (during a sudden attack) and then all of them slowly ebb away (as she died).

IIRC a couple of other cases where this kind of evidence was shown were given as reference points, back in the thread.

I gave one South Australian case as a reference ... will try to find the link again and add it.

Yes, we've talked about it, and I think I remember the case you mean. I wasn't sure about her guilt either, but I didn't follow it in detail.

 

[Rocket333]

“The location of the phone firms-up the police theory Ms Murphy's killer likely dumped it in the dam before heading into the Durham reserve to dispose of her body.”

“Missing Persons Unit detectives had been suspicious of the dam soon after taking charge of the investigation, questioning its owner just weeks later.”

“The owner of the dam suggested police had no specific information the phone had been discarded there. ‘'They started all the way down the other end of the road and worked their way up. As far as I know one of the sniffer dogs found it. A tech dog’.”

“The location is close to where Ms Murphy's phone last made contact with a nearby tower in the Buninyong region before going silent.”

Samantha Murphy mystery is starting to unravel

Whether it works or not, a mud-splattered phone found at a dam could finally help solve the mysterious disappearance of Samantha Murphy, almost four months to the day after she vanished.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[SouthAussie]

The digital data allowed detectives to ascertain that on February 4, Murphy departed her residence and ran approximately 7km through Woowookarung Regional Park, ultimately arriving at Mount Clear.

Former Australia Federal Police officer and professor of cybersecurity, Nigel Phair told Liz Hayes on Channel 9's series Under Investigation with Liz Hayes he believes an "anomaly" or "change in the behaviour" of Murphy's data pattern may have prompted authorities to return to the Mount Clear area last Friday.

Phair explained that Murphy's iPhone and Apple Watch would monitor various biometric data such as heart rate, stride length, altitude and even detect falls, with both devices constantly logging her GPS coordinates.

"From the second that she walked out of her door, when out on the street, they would be able to see where she was moving and how she was moving," Phair said.

'Anomaly' in digital data could be clue to Samantha Murphy's disappearance

9now.nine.com.au

 

[Melt71]

[snip]....... It strikes me that the phone wallet located by police at the dam, is quite bulky, and contained credit cards and licence. If she didn't actually need the phone on her run, and (I'm guessing) wasn't planning to make any purchases whilst on her run, why would she take it? If she took it with her, Samantha would either have to hold it in her hand, or secure it with an accessory such as an armband (to avoid it bouncing around in a pocket.)

I run in rural Australia when I visit my mother and take a phone and my smart watch - the iphone and cover fit in the pocket on the outside of my short running tights. I always have my phone in case I need an ambulance (or want to have a conversation with my kids enroute, take a photo, look at a map etc). I would never go out in country Australia without a phone, given the number of venomous snakes and possibility of a bite.

 

[drsleuth]

How many communication towers are there around the Ballarat area? It's hard to believe they were all down bar one. What are the odds of that!

 

[Rumination1]

I think he disposed of the body before disposing of the phone. The fact that the phone pinged at 5pm on the day of her disappearance suggests he kept it longer. A body in that heat would decompose rather rapidly.

It occurs to me he grabbed her that morning but did she actually die that morning
The phone pinged at 5 but is it definite he hid it at that time. Perhaps he threw it on the Monday on his way to an electrician job
( for example ) or on any date infact.
the absence of info means we still know so little

 

[JLZ]

It occurs to me he grabbed her that morning but did she actually die that morning
The phone pinged at 5 but is it definite he hid it at that time. Perhaps he threw it on the Monday on his way to an electrician job
( for example ) or on any date infact.
the absence of info means we still know so little

That's it. And it could be I'm assigning too much doubt because I feel frustrated not having any detail.

 

[SouthAussie]

How many communication towers are there around the Ballarat area? It's hard to believe they were all down bar one. What are the odds of that!

I did a lot of looking around to see if I could see what the maintenance was that day. I didn't find anything specifically for the 4th (probably because it was not going to disrupt services), but I did find that Telstra were doing significant upgrades in completing the 5G network in the Ballarat area around that time period.

Two weeks after Sam disappeared, they were going to have to interrupt services (Mon 17th/Tues 18th) - which is something they don't like to do - and had assured everyone they would get the services back up as quickly as possible.

It could be that there was prep work going on for that during quieter periods, like Sunday 4th Feb. If Sam's relative was correct.

Telstra outages expected in Ballarat early next week

Find out where Telstra customers can expect outages next weeks

www.thecourier.com.au

Better mobile coverage for Ballarat

A new mobile tower in Ballarat is providing 18 square kilometres of much-needed mobile coverage to the community of Lucas. And there's more to come.

www.vic.gov.au

 

[mrjitty]

Here are my wild speculations

1. Abducted by car
2. Taken somewhere the attacker knows/feels comfortable
3. Body dumped somewhere by car - possibly shallow grave. Little time/preparation IMO
4. Stuff dumped in dam - somewhere he knew that was convenient
5. His digital data (telematics?) will give a lot of insights

The body may take some years to turn up.

IMO

I guess it is also possible he killed her at the location he found her, then removed the body by car.

 

[mrjitty]

It occurs to me he grabbed her that morning but did she actually die that morning
The phone pinged at 5 but is it definite he hid it at that time. Perhaps he threw it on the Monday on his way to an electrician job
( for example ) or on any date infact.
the absence of info means we still know so little

Sadly in these types of cases she likely did not live long