At this point, I think it is more likely that it was a murder.
I am not ruling out an "encouraged" suicide, nor even just a suicide (it was a tough spot and she had a history), but for now, murder is at the top of my list. I do think that's statistically more likely, considering several aspects of the circumstances, even if we refrain from over-analysing body language and such.
As for the timeline, reading between the lines implies that he was older than mid-20s in 2006. Mica was born in 1994 and was about 12 in 2006. So If they "became friends" three years later
when she was 15, then
he must have been in his 30s at that time - unsure if late-, mid or early 30s, <modsnip> Not looking good.
It also caught my eye that of all the abuse types, sexual abuse was the first she mentioned in her speech (
1:15) and I would not say that this is the order people usually list these. And then we have the slightly surprising "taking illegal drugs" (but imo this looked like it was aimed at reassuring someone else that would be listening, e.g more likely referred to what someone else confessed - but that's just a gut feeling from the body language that is more pronounced for this part). All in all, I don't doubt that she at the very least had experienced some type of abuse herself.