Found Deceased Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020 #4

[Neal Issagum]

My first thought on reading that was that it's simply explained by the fact she was at Refuge Besurtas that evening and without a signal, so she couldn't have posted the evening write up that seems to have been her norm. From the dossier - "Evening –Spends the night alone at Cabana de la Besurtason the Spanish side (Esther had no phone signal once she left the peak, but she confirmed this the following day when she returned to Pic de Sauvegarde). "

But you've made me think. On 21st at 13:10 she did post a series of pics on Instagram direct from the Pic, so it does perhaps seem a bit unusual that she didn't do that on 22nd as well again from the Pic, maybe a few pics from Besurtas? There's been talk of battery conservation/airline mode, but she's on day 2 of a 4-5 day trek and carrying a "Battery pack–capable of charging her phone five times" so I'm not convinced that would be an issue. As for time, she sort of seemed to be pushed for time in her messages and she arrived at the Pic late, but I would have thought she'd have had a few minutes to post an update to IG of the cabane or something. It does stand out to me as a change in patterns.


BBM - what if this isn’t the case and she wasn’t alone on evening of 21st? Could presence of company / lack of phone signal / combination of both maybe account for the lack of contact and posting from 21st evening until 22nd afternoon?

 

[RedHaus]

I hesitate to add this, but when I first read Dan’s concluding section of the the dossier... I felt immediately as if it had been written to Esther. IMO It’s as if he has a puzzle piece that we do not have, and flattery and emphasis on her high moral values combined with his pain, will bring her home. Did anyone else have this reaction?

Snipped and BBM

@stmarysmead, I can see what you mean. And I agree there is at least one big puzzle piece missing to put all these little disparate pieces of data together. I also continue to ponder the coincidence of the 22/11 release of the BBC article and ED's disappearance. And I ruminate over the statements from LE, LA and DC, below.

As my fellow ED sleuthers know, I have compiled a variety of theories to explain ED's disappearance ranging from a voluntary change in life plans, to suicide, and my many attempts to figure out where ED may have actually hiked if she had an accident, died of hypothermia or was at the hands of a mal-intentioned third party.

I have now developed a different spin to my voluntary life change scenario for ED. IMO, I speculate DC and ED were in fact separated, and ED essentially left DC BEFORE she started her solo trek. But they agreed to retain a business relationship to support their books, blogs, and social media marketing for income, etc. In this scenario, I believe as part of this agreement they would keep this information quiet, at least until the BBC article was published, for logical business reasons. And as part of that agreement, ED would continue trekking, posting pictures of her treks, and continuing their storyline for business purposes.

Then, IMO, as the month of November went on, DC had to start pushing ED, since her enthusiasm was likely waning. Perhaps she was scrimping cash to save for a new life, which would explain some of our perceptions ED may have been short on funds (e.g. food supplies). Once the BBC article publish date was known to them (perhaps around 19/11 when many of us believe something shifted for her), ED formed her plan to escape from the control and pretense. And it is possible DC was haranguing ED to get back together at that point - with all the messages from DC that ED received after that gap in connectivity between them 21-22/11.

In fact, IMO, during that gap of 26 hours we can't explain (21-22/11) ED was preparing her final plans for whatever she ended up doing after she summited pic de sauvegarde on 22/11 late in the afternoon (perhaps from her van or the Hotel Hospital de Banesque, not the cabane de la Besurta as she told DC the next day). And then finally, IMO, once the BBC article was published on 22/11, ED was done. She said a final good-bye to DC and her family from the col and off she went.

I do speculate now ED hiked down from pic de sauvegarde on 22/11 and met a "friend" at the trail head who whisked her away (either from La Besurta or Plan de l’Estany as we discussed yesterday). Whether ED is still alive is another question... but to me this scenario fits the data better than any other scenario I've considered.

-------------------------------------------
And FWIW, here are some supporting information for this scenario from LE and ED's companions:

1. In an interview with The Times, Captain Jean-Marc Bordinaro of France’s Gendarmerie de Saint-Gaudens has now said: “Esther Dingley wanted to continue with her current way of life, journeys in a camper van and sporting activities including hiking, whilst Daniel Colegate seems a little tired of this nomadic life.” He added: “Did Esther Dingley want to go off on her own to live her life and organise her own disappearance? There is nothing enabling us to eliminate this working theory.”
Missing hiker Esther Dingley may have 'deliberately disappeared' in Pyrenees

2. LA, ED's hiking friend earlier that month said "Esther said she and Dan were taking a break and she didn’t know if they were going to get back together. When you are not 100 per cent OK with your partner, you’re not going to be totally balanced emotionally.”
Missing hiker 'had problems in her love life' Brit cops hear as they join search

3. DC said ‘The initial search was already very thorough and nothing whatsoever was found, that's why I lean towards somebody else being involved in Esther's disappearance… I'm well aware of the difficulties of this scenario, however, the more time that passes the less sense the alternatives make.' Although Dan admitted there was ''tension'' between them he said they had ‘worked hard at their relationship and communication'.”
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13901037/esther-dingleys-boyfriend-vows-look-her-campervan/

 

[stmarysmead]

Snipped and BBM

@stmarysmead, I can see what you mean. And I agree there is at least one big puzzle piece missing to put all these little disparate pieces of data together. I also continue to ponder the coincidence of the 22/11 release of the BBC article and ED's disappearance. And I ruminate over the statements from LE, LA and DC, below.

As my fellow ED sleuthers know, I have compiled a variety of theories to explain ED's disappearance ranging from a voluntary change in life plans, to suicide, and my many attempts to figure out where ED may have actually hiked if she had an accident, died of hypothermia or was at the hands of a mal-intentioned third party.

I have now developed a different spin to my voluntary life change scenario for ED. IMO, I speculate DC and ED were in fact separated, and ED essentially left DC BEFORE she started her solo trek. But they agreed to retain a business relationship to support their books, blogs, and social media marketing for income, etc. In this scenario, I believe as part of this agreement they would keep this information quiet, at least until the BBC article was published, for logical business reasons. And as part of that agreement, ED would continue trekking, posting pictures of her treks, and continuing their storyline for business purposes.

Then, IMO, as the month of November went on, DC had to start pushing ED, since her enthusiasm was likely waning. Perhaps she was scrimping cash to save for a new life, which would explain some of our perceptions ED may have been short on funds (e.g. food supplies). Once the BBC article publish date was known to them (perhaps around 19/11 when many of us believe something shifted for her), ED formed her plan to escape from the control and pretense. And it is possible DC was haranguing ED to get back together at that point - with all the messages from DC that ED received after that gap in connectivity between them 21-22/11.

In fact, IMO, during that gap of 26 hours we can't explain (21-22/11) ED was preparing her final plans for whatever she ended up doing after she summited pic de sauvegarde on 22/11 late in the afternoon (perhaps from her van or the Hotel Hospital de Banesque, not the cabane de la Besurta as she told DC the next day). And then finally, IMO, once the BBC article was published on 22/11, ED was done. She said a final good-bye to DC and her family from the col and off she went.

I do speculate now ED hiked down from pic de sauvegarde on 22/11 and met a "friend" at the trail head who whisked her away (either from La Besurta or Plan de l’Estany as we discussed yesterday). Whether ED is still alive is another question... but to me this scenario fits the data better than any other scenario I've considered.

-------------------------------------------
And FWIW, here are some supporting information for this scenario from LE and ED's companions:

1. In an interview with The Times, Captain Jean-Marc Bordinaro of France’s Gendarmerie de Saint-Gaudens has now said: “Esther Dingley wanted to continue with her current way of life, journeys in a camper van and sporting activities including hiking, whilst Daniel Colegate seems a little tired of this nomadic life.” He added: “Did Esther Dingley want to go off on her own to live her life and organise her own disappearance? There is nothing enabling us to eliminate this working theory.”
Missing hiker Esther Dingley may have 'deliberately disappeared' in Pyrenees

2. LA, ED's hiking friend earlier that month said "Esther said she and Dan were taking a break and she didn’t know if they were going to get back together. When you are not 100 per cent OK with your partner, you’re not going to be totally balanced emotionally.”
Missing hiker 'had problems in her love life' Brit cops hear as they join search

3. DC said ‘The initial search was already very thorough and nothing whatsoever was found, that's why I lean towards somebody else being involved in Esther's disappearance… I'm well aware of the difficulties of this scenario, however, the more time that passes the less sense the alternatives make.' Although Dan admitted there was ''tension'' between them he said they had ‘worked hard at their relationship and communication'.”
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13901037/esther-dingleys-boyfriend-vows-look-her-campervan/

Very plausible theory.

I also found it curious that Dan need to “select” the messages he provided to the dossier. If indeed he had longer interactions with Esther in that 40 minutes...why wouldn’t he just say ‘10 minute video chat between Esther and Dan?”

IMO I tend to believe that the few tidbits of contact they had were the sum total of time she allotted to him.

Side note...yesterday I had a personal experience that revealed to me why I am skeptical of the texts between them revealing Esther’s actual state of mind.

Here’s what happened: I texted one of my my daughters with some unsolicited advice.

No reply

I tried again.

She replies.....”Hey Mom, not much time. Really swamped.” (the lack of time diversion.)
“Made that casserole you love...so good.” ( the “think I can see you” emotional connection diversion.)
‘Love you and Dad lots.”(‘keep them happy” diversion...

Not one word on the topic I wanted to discuss. As expected...lol...instead she did exactly what SHE wanted.

I think Esther did too.
‘

 

[Puzzles]

@Neal Issagum BBM - what if this isn’t the case and she wasn’t alone on evening of 21st? Could presence of company / lack of phone signal / combination of both maybe account for the lack of contact and posting from 21st evening until 22nd afternoon?
Yes, Neal Issagum, I agree we have no actual evidence ED was alone on the evening of 21st, as I think it is DC who told us and that could only be as reported to him by ED. This could well explain the unusual lack of communication from ED to the outside world during that period.
And it fits with the recent post from @RedHaus, where she writes:
"I speculate DC and ED were in fact separated, and ED essentially left DC BEFORE she started her solo trek."

Each one of your theories supports the other.

 

[Puzzles]

I do speculate now ED hiked down from pic de sauvegarde on 22/11 and met a "friend" at the trail head who whisked her away (either from La Besurta or Plan de l’Estany as we discussed yesterday). Whether ED is still alive is another question... but to me this scenario fits the data better than any other scenario I've considered.

Snipped and BBM
Such a thought-provoking post @RedHaus.

If, as you suggest, ED hiked down from the Pic and didn't travel to the Refuge de Venasque on the evening of the 22nd, it could explain DC’s statement: “...that the “prevailing opinion” of authorities was that Dingley was not in the mountains following extensive searches."
Police looking at 'options beyond accident' in search for Esther Dingley

I wonder if SAR/LE have evidence to support the idea she hiked down from the Pic on the 22nd.

Captain Bordinaro states dogs were used in the search, and from DC’s dossier we perhaps assume they weren't sniffer dogs:
"Dan did offer to give clothes / samples to the French police so they could do a forensic search or send in sniffer dogs, but they said they didn't have that type of dog and/or it was too long afterwards."
'We have nothing': police stumped by disappearance of Briton in Pyrenees

Whatever skills the dogs may/may not have, surely they were included in the searches for some reason.

Questions:

If, on Nov. 22nd, ED left the Pic by the same route she ascended it, might the dogs have indicated that?

I imagine sniffer dogs would certainly show evidence of her ascension to the Pic, movement around it, no tracking of her having left by any other path, and hence proof she left via the same route. While apparently it wasn't sniffer dogs involved in the search, could the dogs used have the same ability to demonstrate her movements?
Or
could SAR/LE have traced boot-tread tracks matching those of ED's showing she descended the mountain along her ascension route?

 

[RedHaus]

Very plausible theory.

I also found it curious that Dan need to “select” the messages he provided to the dossier. If indeed he had longer interactions with Esther in that 40 minutes...why wouldn’t he just say ‘10 minute video chat between Esther and Dan?”

IMO I tend to believe that the few tidbits of contact they had were the sum total of time she allotted to him.

Side note...yesterday I had a personal experience that revealed to me why I am skeptical of the texts between them revealing Esther’s actual state of mind.

Here’s what happened: I texted one of my my daughters with some unsolicited advice.

No reply

I tried again.

She replies.....”Hey Mom, not much time. Really swamped.” (the lack of time diversion.)
“Made that casserole you love...so good.” ( the “think I can see you” emotional connection diversion.)
‘Love you and Dad lots.”(‘keep them happy” diversion...

Not one word on the topic I wanted to discuss. As expected...lol...instead she did exactly what SHE wanted.

I think Esther did too.
‘

Wow SMM, your story about the text communication with your daughter is amazingly similar to the ED text statements from 22/11 in the dossier. I find that so compelling at this point. Thank you for sharing your story.

 

[Ruthbullock]

Snipped and BBM

@stmarysmead, I can see what you mean. And I agree there is at least one big puzzle piece missing to put all these little disparate pieces of data together. I also continue to ponder the coincidence of the 22/11 release of the BBC article and ED's disappearance. And I ruminate over the statements from LE, LA and DC, below.

As my fellow ED sleuthers know, I have compiled a variety of theories to explain ED's disappearance ranging from a voluntary change in life plans, to suicide, and my many attempts to figure out where ED may have actually hiked if she had an accident, died of hypothermia or was at the hands of a mal-intentioned third party.

I have now developed a different spin to my voluntary life change scenario for ED. IMO, I speculate DC and ED were in fact separated, and ED essentially left DC BEFORE she started her solo trek. But they agreed to retain a business relationship to support their books, blogs, and social media marketing for income, etc. In this scenario, I believe as part of this agreement they would keep this information quiet, at least until the BBC article was published, for logical business reasons. And as part of that agreement, ED would continue trekking, posting pictures of her treks, and continuing their storyline for business purposes.

Then, IMO, as the month of November went on, DC had to start pushing ED, since her enthusiasm was likely waning. Perhaps she was scrimping cash to save for a new life, which would explain some of our perceptions ED may have been short on funds (e.g. food supplies). Once the BBC article publish date was known to them (perhaps around 19/11 when many of us believe something shifted for her), ED formed her plan to escape from the control and pretense. And it is possible DC was haranguing ED to get back together at that point - with all the messages from DC that ED received after that gap in connectivity between them 21-22/11.

In fact, IMO, during that gap of 26 hours we can't explain (21-22/11) ED was preparing her final plans for whatever she ended up doing after she summited pic de sauvegarde on 22/11 late in the afternoon (perhaps from her van or the Hotel Hospital de Banesque, not the cabane de la Besurta as she told DC the next day). And then finally, IMO, once the BBC article was published on 22/11, ED was done. She said a final good-bye to DC and her family from the col and off she went.

I do speculate now ED hiked down from pic de sauvegarde on 22/11 and met a "friend" at the trail head who whisked her away (either from La Besurta or Plan de l’Estany as we discussed yesterday). Whether ED is still alive is another question... but to me this scenario fits the data better than any other scenario I've considered.

-------------------------------------------
And FWIW, here are some supporting information for this scenario from LE and ED's companions:

1. In an interview with The Times, Captain Jean-Marc Bordinaro of France’s Gendarmerie de Saint-Gaudens has now said: “Esther Dingley wanted to continue with her current way of life, journeys in a camper van and sporting activities including hiking, whilst Daniel Colegate seems a little tired of this nomadic life.” He added: “Did Esther Dingley want to go off on her own to live her life and organise her own disappearance? There is nothing enabling us to eliminate this working theory.”
Missing hiker Esther Dingley may have 'deliberately disappeared' in Pyrenees

2. LA, ED's hiking friend earlier that month said "Esther said she and Dan were taking a break and she didn’t know if they were going to get back together. When you are not 100 per cent OK with your partner, you’re not going to be totally balanced emotionally.”
Missing hiker 'had problems in her love life' Brit cops hear as they join search

3. DC said ‘The initial search was already very thorough and nothing whatsoever was found, that's why I lean towards somebody else being involved in Esther's disappearance… I'm well aware of the difficulties of this scenario, however, the more time that passes the less sense the alternatives make.' Although Dan admitted there was ''tension'' between them he said they had ‘worked hard at their relationship and communication'.”
Esther Dingley’s lover denies having anything to do with her disappearance

I do like this theory and optimistically hope ED is still alive somewhere. I’m sure the bloke that gave ED a lift to her campervan also stated they were on a break, feel free to correct me if I’m mistaken.
ETA: can’t find any confirmation of JB being told they had separated, just that she planned a different route.

 

[Grouse]

BBM - what if this isn’t the case and she wasn’t alone on evening of 21st? Could presence of company / lack of phone signal / combination of both maybe account for the lack of contact and posting from 21st evening until 22nd afternoon?

But if there was no phone signal she wouldn't have been able to post full stop - with or without company, so surely whether she was alone or not is not relevant to the absence of posts? Unless you're doubting what's in the dossier about the lack of phone signal that night?

TBH I'd be more concerned if she went back to that shelter on 22nd and wasn't alone. But more from an involuntary disappearance angle than the voluntary one I think you are alluding to.

 

[stmarysmead]

I believe Esther told Dan that there was no cell service. Not knowing her state of mind, it would be good if we had independent confirmation. There was a period of around 26 hours of no contact. Unless she stayed at the Cabane overnight and then lingered into the next afternoon, wouldn’t she have had an opportunity somewhere in the area?

IMO I still think she summited the mountain so late in the day because she had arranged to meet a friend there. Some of her posts indicate discomfort spending the nights alone. IMO she would have arranged her schedule just to have some company that night. Maybe she didn’t want to discuss that decision with anyone.

 

[The_Investigator]

Snipped and BBM

@stmarysmead, I can see what you mean. And I agree there is at least one big puzzle piece missing to put all these little disparate pieces of data together. I also continue to ponder the coincidence of the 22/11 release of the BBC article and ED's disappearance. And I ruminate over the statements from LE, LA and DC, below.

As my fellow ED sleuthers know, I have compiled a variety of theories to explain ED's disappearance ranging from a voluntary change in life plans, to suicide, and my many attempts to figure out where ED may have actually hiked if she had an accident, died of hypothermia or was at the hands of a mal-intentioned third party.

I have now developed a different spin to my voluntary life change scenario for ED. IMO, I speculate DC and ED were in fact separated, and ED essentially left DC BEFORE she started her solo trek. But they agreed to retain a business relationship to support their books, blogs, and social media marketing for income, etc. In this scenario, I believe as part of this agreement they would keep this information quiet, at least until the BBC article was published, for logical business reasons. And as part of that agreement, ED would continue trekking, posting pictures of her treks, and continuing their storyline for business purposes.

Then, IMO, as the month of November went on, DC had to start pushing ED, since her enthusiasm was likely waning. Perhaps she was scrimping cash to save for a new life, which would explain some of our perceptions ED may have been short on funds (e.g. food supplies). Once the BBC article publish date was known to them (perhaps around 19/11 when many of us believe something shifted for her), ED formed her plan to escape from the control and pretense. And it is possible DC was haranguing ED to get back together at that point - with all the messages from DC that ED received after that gap in connectivity between them 21-22/11.

In fact, IMO, during that gap of 26 hours we can't explain (21-22/11) ED was preparing her final plans for whatever she ended up doing after she summited pic de sauvegarde on 22/11 late in the afternoon (perhaps from her van or the Hotel Hospital de Banesque, not the cabane de la Besurta as she told DC the next day). And then finally, IMO, once the BBC article was published on 22/11, ED was done. She said a final good-bye to DC and her family from the col and off she went.

I do speculate now ED hiked down from pic de sauvegarde on 22/11 and met a "friend" at the trail head who whisked her away (either from La Besurta or Plan de l’Estany as we discussed yesterday). Whether ED is still alive is another question... but to me this scenario fits the data better than any other scenario I've considered.

-------------------------------------------
And FWIW, here are some supporting information for this scenario from LE and ED's companions:

1. In an interview with The Times, Captain Jean-Marc Bordinaro of France’s Gendarmerie de Saint-Gaudens has now said: “Esther Dingley wanted to continue with her current way of life, journeys in a camper van and sporting activities including hiking, whilst Daniel Colegate seems a little tired of this nomadic life.” He added: “Did Esther Dingley want to go off on her own to live her life and organise her own disappearance? There is nothing enabling us to eliminate this working theory.”
Missing hiker Esther Dingley may have 'deliberately disappeared' in Pyrenees

2. LA, ED's hiking friend earlier that month said "Esther said she and Dan were taking a break and she didn’t know if they were going to get back together. When you are not 100 per cent OK with your partner, you’re not going to be totally balanced emotionally.”
Missing hiker 'had problems in her love life' Brit cops hear as they join search

3. DC said ‘The initial search was already very thorough and nothing whatsoever was found, that's why I lean towards somebody else being involved in Esther's disappearance… I'm well aware of the difficulties of this scenario, however, the more time that passes the less sense the alternatives make.' Although Dan admitted there was ''tension'' between them he said they had ‘worked hard at their relationship and communication'.”
Esther Dingley’s lover denies having anything to do with her disappearance

What a great alternative to other solutions, you word it so well it sounds very feasible. Well deduced

 

[IrisElizabeth]

Snipped and BBM
Such a thought-provoking post @RedHaus.

If, as you suggest, ED hiked down from the Pic and didn't travel to the Refuge de Venasque on the evening of the 22nd, it could explain DC’s statement: “...that the “prevailing opinion” of authorities was that Dingley was not in the mountains following extensive searches."
Police looking at 'options beyond accident' in search for Esther Dingley

I wonder if SAR/LE have evidence to support the idea she hiked down from the Pic on the 22nd.

Captain Bordinaro states dogs were used in the search, and from DC’s dossier we perhaps assume they weren't sniffer dogs:
"Dan did offer to give clothes / samples to the French police so they could do a forensic search or send in sniffer dogs, but they said they didn't have that type of dog and/or it was too long afterwards."
'We have nothing': police stumped by disappearance of Briton in Pyrenees

Whatever skills the dogs may/may not have, surely they were included in the searches for some reason.

Questions:

If, on Nov. 22nd, ED left the Pic by the same route she ascended it, might the dogs have indicated that?

I imagine sniffer dogs would certainly show evidence of her ascension to the Pic, movement around it, no tracking of her having left by any other path, and hence proof she left via the same route. While apparently it wasn't sniffer dogs involved in the search, could the dogs used have the same ability to demonstrate her movements?
Or
could SAR/LE have traced boot-tread tracks matching those of ED's showing she descended the mountain along her ascension route?

Do we know that the Spanish police didn't use sniffer dogs? DC specifically says the French police..

 

[Grouse]

DBM (changed my mind about posting it)

 

[miekei]

Snipped and BBM
Such a thought-provoking post @RedHaus.

If, as you suggest, ED hiked down from the Pic and didn't travel to the Refuge de Venasque on the evening of the 22nd, it could explain DC’s statement: “...that the “prevailing opinion” of authorities was that Dingley was not in the mountains following extensive searches."
Police looking at 'options beyond accident' in search for Esther Dingley

I wonder if SAR/LE have evidence to support the idea she hiked down from the Pic on the 22nd.

Captain Bordinaro states dogs were used in the search, and from DC’s dossier we perhaps assume they weren't sniffer dogs:
"Dan did offer to give clothes / samples to the French police so they could do a forensic search or send in sniffer dogs, but they said they didn't have that type of dog and/or it was too long afterwards."
'We have nothing': police stumped by disappearance of Briton in Pyrenees

Whatever skills the dogs may/may not have, surely they were included in the searches for some reason.

Questions:

If, on Nov. 22nd, ED left the Pic by the same route she ascended it, might the dogs have indicated that?

I imagine sniffer dogs would certainly show evidence of her ascension to the Pic, movement around it, no tracking of her having left by any other path, and hence proof she left via the same route. While apparently it wasn't sniffer dogs involved in the search, could the dogs used have the same ability to demonstrate her movements?
Or
could SAR/LE have traced boot-tread tracks matching those of ED's showing she descended the mountain along her ascension route?

Just to be clear, a sniffer dog is a dog that’s been trained to detect or sniff out a certain substance, like for example drugs, explosives, blood and all kinds of contraband, even certain diseases. They recognize if that scent is present. The dogs you see at airports are sniffer dogs. Not to be confused with tracking or trailing dogs, who are trained to follow a scent trail – they react to a scent that matches the one they are given, in this case that of the missing person in question.

 

[RedHaus]

What a great alternative to other solutions, you word it so well it sounds very feasible. Well deduced

Many thanks, The_Investigator. I just hope it can help find ED...

 

[RickshawFan]

Great new possibilities, Reddy!

I agree with everything above, Reddy's, Puzzle's, SMM's. Except one item: but this is a matter of exclusion vs. inclusion.

I'm not satisfied that LE has eliminated the high possibility that ED had an accident somewhere up in those mountains and valley where trails go to and from the Port de Sauvegarde. In that area, I include the Aneto glacier, the Refuge, the Cabaña, the Hospice, the Pic... that whole area.
We don't have a primary-source LE statement that indicates she likely didn't have an accident. Sure, they might be looking at other scenarios. That doesn't mean they've shelved the obvious one.
While it is true ED might not be in the Pic-Port-Refuge-Hospice area, there are many trails where she could have had an accident. There's no way to search all those trails: it's simply too much terrain.

Understand, too, that SARS in that area have their methods. No doubt, they searched where they could and in the most likely places, judging from past experience. That doesn't mean ED didn't have a mountain accident, however. It just means LE reached the end of their search parameters.

Nowhere have I seen, though, anything from SARS like "There's no way she's in the mountains because we've looked everywhere and been very thorough."

Because IMO LE hasn't eliminated a mountain accident—which was their original likeliest scenario—there's no grounds for saying "ED is not in the mountains".

Ergo... I'm still on the trail accident theme, but I don't think it happened on the Refuge side of the mountains.
BUT my accident theme still combines nicely with scenarios proposed ^^^^.

 

[RedHaus]

snipped for focus

Questions:

If, on Nov. 22nd, ED left the Pic by the same route she ascended it, might the dogs have indicated that?

I imagine sniffer dogs would certainly show evidence of her ascension to the Pic, movement around it, no tracking of her having left by any other path, and hence proof she left via the same route. While apparently it wasn't sniffer dogs involved in the search, could the dogs used have the same ability to demonstrate her movements?
Or
could SAR/LE have traced boot-tread tracks matching those of ED's showing she descended the mountain along her ascension route?

Thank you, @Puzzles! You and @IrisElizabeth are asking some good questions about the use of tracking (as @miekei has clarified for us all) dogs on the Spain side of the trails.

 

[RedHaus]

Great new possibilities, Reddy!

I agree with everything above, Reddy's, Puzzle's, SMM's. Except one item: but this is a matter of exclusion vs. inclusion.

I'm not satisfied that LE has eliminated the high possibility that ED had an accident somewhere up in those mountains and valley where trails go to and from the Port de Sauvegarde. In that area, I include the Aneto glacier, the Refuge, the Cabaña, the Hospice, the Pic... that whole area.
We don't have a primary-source LE statement that indicates she likely didn't have an accident. Sure, they might be looking at other scenarios. That doesn't mean they've shelved the obvious one.
While it is true ED might not be in the Pic-Port-Refuge-Hospice area, there are many trails where she could have had an accident. There's no way to search all those trails: it's simply too much terrain.

Understand, too, that SARS in that area have their methods. No doubt, they searched where they could and in the most likely places, judging from past experience. That doesn't mean ED didn't have a mountain accident, however. It just means LE reached the end of their search parameters.

Nowhere have I seen, though, anything from SARS like "There's no way she's in the mountains because we've looked everywhere and been very thorough."

Because IMO LE hasn't eliminated a mountain accident—which is their go-to scenario since they had searches underway—there's no grounds for saying "ED is not in the mountains".

Ergo... I'm still on the trail accident theme, but I don't think it happened on the Refuge side of the mountains.
BUT my accident theme still combines nicely with scenarios proposed ^^^^.

Thanks RickshawFan! Of course, a tragic accident still remains on the table. And sadly we could have a combo theory here. For example, ED may have been on her way to Luchon for an escape hatch from her life, and had a fatal accident on her way.

 

[PeggyHenry]

I don’t think an accident has been ruled out by any means, in fact I don’t think anything has been ruled out yet. I tend to agree with SMM’ s interpretation of Esthers texts to Dan.. I think she’s trying to keep him happy. It’s very plausible and I think we all do it when we have to! I think the idea of her meeting someone on 22nd is very likely.. it does account for the timing of her ascent. The fruit or something fresh that she requested might have been to give her fresh breath.

 

[RedHaus]

But if there was no phone signal she wouldn't have been able to post full stop - with or without company, so surely whether she was alone or not is not relevant to the absence of posts? Unless you're doubting what's in the dossier about the lack of phone signal that night?

TBH I'd be more concerned if she went back to that shelter on 22nd and wasn't alone. But more from an involuntary disappearance angle than the voluntary one I think you are alluding to.

Good questions @Grouse and @Neal Issagum. As I considered up thread, what if ED was not at the Cabane La Besurta the night if 21/11 as she told DC the next day? Especially, IMO, if she needed internet to finalize any plans she was making for 22/11 and possibly with another person, perhaps she went back to her van or stayed at the Hotel Hospital de Banasque at a trail head?. The latter would only make sense if she stayed under someone else's name and presumably was not on CCTVs...

ETA a missing IMO

 

[RedHaus]

The fruit or something fresh that she requested might have been to give her fresh breath

snipped for focus
Funny you say this @PeggyHenry (although nothing about this case is funny!) about the 22/11 asking-for-fruit episode. I have stayed out of those discussions because I had the same idea, as silly as it may sound. What if she was meeting up with someone later and just wanted to freshen up?