It's not as unlikely as one might think, because one of the events, the abduction (or other crime), happened with 100% certainty. ...
... If the third event , the crime was related to one of the first two events, (the person was the same) there would be a 10% chance of the other event independently happening.
Expanding the definition of "weird event" to include many other things and expanding the time from that day to that week or month would increase the odds of a "weird" coincidence happening by chance to the point where some coincidence that day or that week would have been likely.
My post was not about random weird events, but rather specifically about perverts or predators approaching the two girls prior to their disappearance. And I do consider the Tape Recorder Man to be a pervert and a predator, not just a random guy with a strange hobby.
While, obviously in this case, one really cannot determine accurate mathematical "odds" (using equations related to randomness, chance, and probability), one has to wonder how one or two encounters with predators might be connected with that "one in a million" abuction which probably occurred.
My point in bringing up the question (asked previously by others) is that here you have this extremely rare occurance of not one but two girls disappearing without a trace in broad daylight from a relatively safe environment. And just before they disappeared, they are seen talking to an adult male with a tape recorder, who also disappears about the same time - another "one in a million" encounter. Are those two events connected? Maybe, maybe not. But the chances of the two events occurring separately (ie not connected) within such a short time frame would have to be extremely high.
And now, we are confronted with yet another possible predator (LHM and/or Welch) Could all three events be connected?
Depending on Welch's actual age, his behavior patterns in 1975, and other factors, his attentions toward the Lyon sisters that day might have been considered "weird" or they might also have been perfectly normal.
Don't misunderstand what I am saying, I do consider Welch to be a pervert and a predator, based on what little we know about him today.
But back on 25 March 1975, there were a number of known people who noticed and watched Sheila and Kate at various times: going to the Mall, while at the Mall, and while walking home. Welch - if he actually was there and following or watching them - was not the only one noticing and paying attention to the girls.
Here are some others:
1. Mrs. Sarah M. Biosca, age 67 in 1975, a retired seamstress, noticed and recognized Sheila and Katherine Lyon at Beckers Leather Goods store, at about 11:45 AM.
2. Brian McAbee, 18, a clerk at Up Against The Wall, a clothing store featuring jeans and shirts, said he saw Sheila and Kate enter his store a few minutes after they had been in Beckers Leather Goods (aproximately 11:55 AM).
3. "Jimmy", age 13, knew Sheila from school, reported seeing both girls near a planter by the Orange Bowl Pizza take out, "around 1 or 2 PM" talking to TRM.
4. Unnamed Male Friend of "Jimmy", age 13, was with "Jimmy" riding bicycles that day and he also saw the girls talking to TRM.
5. Jay Lyon, age 13, brother of the girls, saw them at Mall Center near the Easter Bunny Display and Fountain, around 1PM.
6. Another boy (Unnamed), age 13, stated that he saw Sheila Lyon near the Easter Bunny listening to children. He recognized her from school. (aproximately 1PM)
7. The Easter Bunny (name, age, and sex unknown) saw Sheila and was sitting with her.
8. David Reed, age 12, knew both girls from having seen them at the community swimming pool, the previous summer, and who attended school with them, saw them near Drumm and Faulkner walking toward the mall. His reported estimate of time did not match with MCP timelines.
9. Boy (Unnamed), referred to by police as "Over 15", claimed to have seen the girls walking down Drumm, near Devin between 2:30 and 3:00 PM, while he was riding with a male friend in a car. Said he knew Sheila from school.
10. Boy (Unnamed) age between 16 and 18, Driver of the car in which "Over 15" was riding, corroborated the 2:30 - 3:00 PM sighting, but claimed that he did not know the girls personally.
I do not mean that any of these people should be considered suspects. I only mean that quite a number of people noticed and recognized the girls that day.