Theories On What Happened to Caylee Part #4

[Rumpole]

Pulling from JWG's ADD spreadsheet w/ ambient Orlando T @ 5min intervals and the compensated temperature adjusted for the delta in the trunk and time of day (based on another independent study of this delta)...

@ 7:30PM 6/16

Ambient T = 74.5 F
Trunk T = 86.4 F

Dehydration would certainly be competing w/ o.d. and/or simply a contributing factor that sped death.

If Caylee died say 8:00pm 16th. Decomposing in trunk 2.6 days means removed from trunk on the moring of 19th, say 8-9am? This does not agree with known visit back at G &C's? You know better than I do. Don't pings etc place her away from A's all day? Body had to be not in plastic bag up untill then., then bagged in plastic. You say after visiting Chris that day in the evening, which is later than forensics suggest for decomp in the trunk. The body transfer between cars and the plastic bagging on the street? Plastic bagging on 18th is too soon for decomp evidence. I am struggling with the transfering to the Jeep part. Exactly when and where does that take place and why?? Why not dump from her own car soon after bagging. Or even be stupid and drive around for 1 or more days with a corpse, but no longer leaking decomposition fluids because of the plastic but, just dump from her own car?
Also if AL's jeep had a touch of the same juice that stank up KC's car, why didn't he and the rest of Orange County notice it? Does it stink even a little now? Was Tony complicit? It didn't seem so from the texts on morning 16th July.
I quite like the build up and nature of death scenario. I still struggle with the inclusion of chloroform, and it is hard to see patent medicines actually working very well as knock out potions.

 

[Trailerparkgirl]

i had this thought last night, that clairfies things for me...the accident theory keeps on popping up in my head, but not anymore...the reason is the duct tape...if you put duct tape on someone with the INTENT of eventually taking it off, you would not get the hair caught on the tape! you know eventually (in this case when caylee wakes up) you will have to take the tape off, so you would be careful not to put it on her hair knowing it would hurt when you tried to pull it off....
when caylee's skull was found, the hair had to be cut so the duct tape could be removed, which tells me she had no intention of taking that tape off
this was no accident, and the tape was used as part of a murder weapon!

 

[Mysterylover]

They dont have to come up with an alternate reason, all they have to do is instill in the jury reasonable doubt that what the state says happened, did not.

If they are smart what they are going to do is keep pointing out over and over how it could have been anyone except KC that killed her,

that it didnt have to be KC, that another person could be involved and they dont have to say who.

I think they are so far beyond accident that they wont even try it.

Plus if they try it, they have to put her on the stand. She is the last person on earth a lawyer wants on the stand. If she was going the accident route, she would plea out which I feel she would never do.

2goldfish...Good points that many have not considered..
I believe her attorneys will stress 'it's not what we see, but what we don't see' in this case.
the following is along the same line of thinking....imo

http://www.transworldnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?id=73935&cat=14

 

[BondJamesBond]

Very well thought out Bond. Have read it twice and can't find any holes at this point. Will try again after I let it roll around in the old noggin for a while.

That means alot coming from you, Shadow. :detective: Thanks for all of your help researching info. :blowkiss:

I don't wanna think 'bout what it woulda cost if I was writing checks for the $/hour I owe you for all your help over the past few months.

I expect there to be some holes...esp. where we just don't have much info to go on @ this time (e.g. 6/19 details). I'm not really tryin' to come up w/ the narrative that 'splains it all...just the key points from A to B.

I left out the ZG impersonation storyline that, based on the evidence of 7/15, I'm convinced is running in parallel to all of the events of the murder. No need to muddy up the waters with how the alibi came to fruition here...just stayin' focused on Caylee

 

[BondJamesBond]

If Caylee died say 8:00pm 16th. Decomposing in trunk 2.6 days means removed from trunk on the moring of 19th, say 8-9am? This does not agree with known visit back at G &C's? You know better than I do. Don't pings etc place her away from A's all day? Body had to be not in plastic bag up untill then., then bagged in plastic. You say after visiting Chris that day in the evening, which is later than forensics suggest for decomp in the trunk. The body transfer between cars and the plastic bagging on the street? Plastic bagging on 18th is too soon for decomp evidence. I am struggling with the transfering to the Jeep part. Exactly when and where does that take place and why?? Why not dump from her own car soon after bagging. Or even be stupid and drive around for 1 or more days with a corpse, but no longer leaking decomposition fluids because of the plastic but, just dump from her own car?
Also if AL's jeep had a touch of the same juice that stank up KC's car, why didn't he and the rest of Orange County notice it? Does it stink even a little now? Was Tony complicit? It didn't seem so from the texts on morning 16th July.
I quite like the build up and nature of death scenario. I still struggle with the inclusion of chloroform, and it is hard to see patent medicines actually working very well as knock out potions.

I'm sure you have more questions than I have answers...
...and I have plenty more questions myself.

RE: "2.6 days".

Lemme take a hack at it and I'll ask JWG to fix where I may stray...my apologies if it goes a bit OT, but, relevant to understanding how the forensics are used to support any theory.

I owe JWG and Bev a big TY for helping me understand the accumulated-degree-days (ADD) information that most know of as "2.6 days". This # is arrived at as a total of the elapsed temperature-time conditions following death. After the 2.6 figure was released JWG noted that the temperatures that were used as inputs may have been off a bit when compared to more detailed Orlando temperatures that were otherwise available.

So, JWG created a spreadsheet populated w/ 5-minute interval Orlando temperatures for the entire period of interest. After bouncin' it around a bit, we found some research on the web that had been done comparing the interior temperature of a car trunk vs. ambient temperatures vs. time of day, and incorporated (a) simulated trunk temps for each 5-minute interval, and (b) the ability to mathematically take the body in & out of the trunk to simulate the potential that it wasn't @ elevated temperatures if it had been moved...say...to the playhouse for example...for a period of time.

The end result of the above is IMHO, a more accurate assessment of the ADD data the body experienced than that which was provided to reach the 2.6 # in the released report. The actual target is 90 ADD. And using the compensated temperatures for the given time of death of 6/16 7:20PM we reach 90 ADD @ exactly 6/19 7:36PM (or 3.01 days)...and I gave a +/-1% range..so....7:01PM-8:19PM is the mathematical result. We don't know the exact time of medical death either...immediate...or slower organ failure that ultimate resulted in cardiac arrest...effect of heat/dehydration, etc. So, consider it a range. If you're interested, JWG can prolly tell you how many temperature input points were used to arrive @ the 2.6 days used in the released report. The spreadsheet we're using has 869 temperature input points.

Note that the time of day of death has an impact too, owing to a late PM death accumulating a cooler nighttime cycle of temperatures in the same amount of time as compared to a hotter daytime cycle.

Hope that helps.

RE: Pings.

The following is a 3.3 hour gap for which we have no data for Casey's whereabout via pings.

6/19/08 THU 5:45:39 PM
6/19/08 THU 9:02:02 PM​

This timeframe (a) encompasses the time given by Chris S. for Casey's visit with him, and (b) ends @ 9:02 with the receipt of a numbered text. This suggests to me Casey powered off her phone and received a system message when she powered it back up. The 5:45PM ping is in the Waterford Ale House/Fusian area, and the 9:02PM ping is near Tony's apt.

 

[LazyCat08]

".......................I don't believe that Caylee drowned. *(But, I do believe that KC may have attempted a fake an accidental drowning "post-mortem".)...................Here's what I'm more inclined to believe:................KC acted alone & intended to murder Caylee *(due to the Internet Searches for Chloroform, Neck Breaking, etc.) and then planned to stage it as an accident or kidnapping to free herself from the responsibilities of a child."
SNIPPED FROM MIABELLAMOURE


I really believe this is the most likely scenario based on the evidence so far. Its WAY TOO BIG a coincidence that KC searched for chloroform on line and then it just happened to end up in the trunk of her abandoned car along with evidence of a deceased Caylee......

However, I do have 2 questions about the chloroform.

#1-I thought I read somewhere that chloroform is one of the chemicals used in a pool or that it can result from a combination of certain chemicals used in a pool.
Just for the sake of argument, say Caylee had drowned in the pool by accident, if KC put her wet body in the trunk of her car, could that account for the level of chloroform found there?

#2-If KC did sedate Caylee with chloroform and/or attempted to stage an accidental drowning by putting Caylee's body in the pool. Wouldn't there be evidence of chloroform or chemicals on the blanket and cloth items that where discovered with the body?

 

[Indigo]

i had this thought last night, that clairfies things for me...the accident theory keeps on popping up in my head, but not anymore...the reason is the duct tape...if you put duct tape on someone with the INTENT of eventually taking it off, you would not get the hair caught on the tape! you know eventually (in this case when caylee wakes up) you will have to take the tape off, so you would be careful not to put it on her hair knowing it would hurt when you tried to pull it off....
when caylee's skull was found, the hair had to be cut so the duct tape could be removed, which tells me she had no intention of taking that tape off
this was no accident, and the tape was used as part of a murder weapon!

I agree, Trailerparkgirl. The tape was applied in such a way that was never intended to be taken off, IMO. And since we know Casey never did remove the tape, the thought that there was any attempt at Caylee's revival (due to accidental overdose) seems very remote.

 

[Mysterylover]

I had this thought last night, that clairfies things for me...the accident theory keeps on popping up in my head, but not anymore...
the reason is the duct tape...

If you put duct tape on someone with the INTENT of eventually taking it off, you would not get the hair caught on the tape!

you know eventually (in this case when caylee wakes up) you will have to take the tape off, so you would be careful not to put it on her hair knowing it would hurt when you tried to pull it off....
when caylee's skull was found, the hair had to be cut so the duct tape could be removed, which tells me she had no intention of taking that tape off
this was no accident, and the tape was used as part of a murder weapon!....

Tra:
BINGO!...You are absolutely correct. The duct tape wrapped around the head says it all.
There would be NO way to remove the duct tape without pulling much of the childs hair out or cutting the hair above the tape..
Who ever put the duct tape around this childs head and face did not intend to remove it...imo

Why would someone use so much duct tape is a question that still haunts me???
IF Casey wanted the baby dead, why wouldn't she put her in the pool and allow her to drown, then call it an accident??? :rose:

 

[BondJamesBond]

Who ever put the duct tape around this childs head and face did not intend to remove it.

*snipped*
...or...consider, when Casey applied the duct tape she had:

(a) an afternoon of toke'n under her belt, and/or,
(b) was in a hurry

Ever done something when you were *cough* self-medicated and impressed with your work, only to come back later, non-medicated, to see what a mess you'd made?

ETA: Not sure what might be offensive, but, certainly not meant to be. FWIW..."toke'n" = smokin' pot.

 

[Trailerparkgirl]

that duct tape is nasty that is something u use for a 'good fixer upper job'
reminds me the time my husband had to go into the bush AFTER a forest fire had occured
ripped his jeans...he used duct tape to 'sew' them back together
when he got home, that duct tape was still on his pants, holding them together very nicely....
that duct tape is potent stuff....

 

[reeseeva]

*snipped*
...or...consider, when Casey applied the duct tape she had:

(a) an afternoon of toke'n under her belt, and/or,
(b) was in a hurry

Ever done something when you were *cough* self-medicated and impressed with your work, only to come back later, non-medicated, to see what a mess you'd made?

Bond, I'm surprised at these comments?? Really offensive!

 

[Trailerparkgirl]

Tra:
BINGO!...You are absolutely correct. The duct tape wrapped around the head says it all.
There would be NO way to remove the duct tape without pulling much of the childs hair out or cutting the hair above the tape..
Who ever put the duct tape around this childs head and face did not intend to remove it...imo

Why would someone use so much duct tape is a question that still haunts me???
IF Casey wanted the baby dead, why wouldn't she put her in the pool and allow her to drown, then call it an accident??? :rose:

because she didnt want to have to kill her...watch her die
instead she put duct tape around her mouth and left her in the trunk to die from the heat...(if that's the way it happened)
i think this was the first time she put her in the trunk, imo cars get too hot in the summer, let alone in the trunk

another thing about the duct tape, not only would you have to be careful not to get it caught in the hair, but even on skin, once u take it off, there would be glue residue on her face, very hard to get off..

 

[JWG]

RE: "2.6 days".

Lemme take a hack at it and I'll ask JWG to fix where I may stray...my apologies if it goes a bit OT, but, relevant to understanding how the forensics are used to support any theory.

I owe JWG and Bev a big TY for helping me understand the accumulated-degree-days (ADD) information that most know of as "2.6 days". This # is arrived at as a total of the elapsed temperature-time conditions following death. After the 2.6 figure was released JWG noted that the temperatures that were used as inputs may have been off a bit when compared to more detailed Orlando temperatures that were otherwise available.

So, JWG created a spreadsheet populated w/ 5-minute interval Orlando temperatures for the entire period of interest. After bouncin' it around a bit, we found some research on the web that had been done comparing the interior temperature of a car trunk vs. ambient temperatures vs. time of day, and incorporated (a) simulated trunk temps for each 5-minute interval, and (b) the ability to mathematically take the body in & out of the trunk to simulate the potential that it wasn't @ elevated temperatures if it had been moved...say...to the playhouse for example...for a period of time.

The end result of the above is IMHO, a more accurate assessment of the ADD data the body experienced than that which was provided to reach the 2.6 # in the released report. The actual target is 90 ADD. And using the compensated temperatures for the given time of death of 6/16 7:20PM we reach 90 ADD @ exactly 6/19 7:36PM (or 3.01 days)...and I gave a +/-1% range..so....7:01PM-8:19PM is the mathematical result. We don't know the exact time of medical death either...immediate...or slower organ failure that ultimate resulted in cardiac arrest...effect of heat/dehydration, etc. So, consider it a range. If you're interested, JWG can prolly tell you how many temperature input points were used to arrive @ the 2.6 days used in the released report. The spreadsheet we're using has 869 temperature input points.

Note that the time of day of death has an impact too, owing to a late PM death accumulating a cooler nighttime cycle of temperatures in the same amount of time as compared to a hotter daytime cycle.

Hope that helps.

Bond, you explained it quite well, as usual. :woohoo:

Let me try to add a few things.

First, the body farm made a sweeping assumption that average temperatures in Orlando during that time of year are 35C. Thus, 90 / 35 = 2.6 days. Figuring out what the real temperatures were is an exercise left to OCSO.

Turns out we can pull a lot of local temps for Orlando via weather underground. I found one station about halfway between the Anthony's and AL's that happened to record temperatures every 3 to 5 minutes. So I dumped all of the records from 6/16 to about 6/21 into a spreadsheet.

As Bond pointed out, we found some research on the web regarding car interior and trunk temperatures. Bond enhanced my spreadsheet with simulation variables to account for the difference between ambient and trunk temperatures depending on time of day. This was an important consideration, because the difference depends on time of day. For example, the difference at 5 PM might be 10 C and at 5 AM 0 C.

Then I calculated a "degree day" for each data point. Here is the general process. First, an average daily temperature of 22C over 24 hours is 22 degree days (22 degrees times 1 day). A 22C temperature recorded over a 5 minute interval is 0.076 degree days (22 degrees * 5 minutes / 1440 minutes per day).

The degree days for each data point can then be summed starting at any assumed time of death until we reach 90. At the point we reach 90 we look at the corresponding date / time and that tells us roughly when the body was removed from the trunk.

Hope between the two explanations that clarifies things.

 

[kpalma715]

I picked smothered. I had a disturbing dream 2 months ago, of Casey smothering Caylee with a blanket.

 

[Mysterylover]

Here's another thing that bothers me about the duct tape...
IF the child was awake, would she have been strong enough to pull the duct tape down from her face?
This entire case seems rather confusing and 'crazy' to me..IF someone wants to murder their child, why do it in this manner? Was it supposed to be a planned abduction?/..:liar:
Why not just say the child died from an simple accident??:doh:

 

[Trailerparkgirl]

Here's another thing that bothers me about the duct tape...
IF the child was awake, would she have been strong enough to pull the duct tape down from her face?This entire case seems rather confusing and 'crazy' to me..IF someone wants to murder their child, why do it in this manner? Was it supposed to be a planned abduction?/..:liar:
Why not just say the child died from an simple accident??:doh:

i think so! if not able to take the whole tape off, pulling from one end to the other, at least pulling it DOWN so that her mouth was exposed
she was almost 3, she was strong enough...
so safe to say it was put on post-mortem? or actually used to soffocate her? doesnt make sense though, like i said i think she was strong enough to take it off or at least pull it down...
now im confused lol

 

[Indigo]

Here's another thing that bothers me about the duct tape...
IF the child was awake, would she have been strong enough to pull the duct tape down from her face?
This entire case seems rather confusing and 'crazy' to me..IF someone wants to murder their child, why do it in this manner? Was it supposed to be a planned abduction?/..:liar:
Why not just say the child died from an simple accident??:doh:

It's a disturbing thing to try and get into the mind of a killer--especially when a mother murders her own child. The act alone is unthinkable. Yet children are killed by their parents everyday in unimaginable ways.

Why Casey chose to do it this way may be due to her own fantasies. Her post-murder behavior has been much like Diane Downs. Who can forget Downs groovin' to the tune of "Hungry Like the Wolf," the song that played while her children were being brutally murdered?"

 

[Indigo]

i think so! if not able to take the whole tape off, pulling from one end to the other, at least pulling it DOWN so that her mouth was exposed
she was almost 3, she was strong enough...
so safe to say it was put on post-mortem? or actually used to soffocate her? doesnt make sense though, like i said i think she was strong enough to take it off or at least pull it down...
now im confused lol

Hopefully the fibers on the tape will tell the tale. Carpet? Clothing? bedding fibers? fibers from the trunk? Hopefully an indication of where this all took place.

My bet is on the Anthony home.

 

[AZlawyer]

Tra:
BINGO!...You are absolutely correct. The duct tape wrapped around the head says it all.
There would be NO way to remove the duct tape without pulling much of the childs hair out or cutting the hair above the tape..
Who ever put the duct tape around this childs head and face did not intend to remove it...imo

Why would someone use so much duct tape is a question that still haunts me???
IF Casey wanted the baby dead, why wouldn't she put her in the pool and allow her to drown, then call it an accident??? :rose:

Although BJB's theory is the best I've seen so far at pulling together lots of different threads of evidence, I too am bothered by the duct tape fitting into any theory that involves Casey planning to remove it later.

But to keep things accurate, are we sure that the duct tape was "around" Caylee's head? I remember that as a rumor prior to the doc dump, but IIRC the actual documents said there was a "piece" of duct tape over her mouth that covered some hair on both ends.

 

[BondJamesBond]

Although BJB's theory is the best I've seen so far at pulling together lots of different threads of evidence, I too am bothered by the duct tape fitting into any theory that involves Casey planning to remove it later.

But to keep things accurate, are we sure that the duct tape was "around" Caylee's head? I remember that as a rumor prior to the doc dump, but IIRC the actual documents said there was a "piece" of duct tape over her mouth that covered some hair on both ends.

...I haven't figured out, nor do I think we'll know until trial, where the duct tape came from...it woulda had to have been handy. A resourceful-George emergency kit in the trunk already?

My latest working is that Casey & Tony may have already been doin' homage to doobie or downin' some beer before they went to Blockbuster. I haven't watched the Blockbuster surveil vid for clues on whether or not they appeared to be buzzin'. If they were already started down that road...by the time Casey went back to check on Caylee ~7:20PM (and apply the final dose) her judgement may've been impaired enough that the thought of having to remove the duct tape never entered her even-when-sober-10min@-a-time-@-best mind. :bang: