Theory Thread - What happened at Pistorius' house on the night of Feb. 13, 2013?

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He "was creating an alibi". Are you trolling? I don't think you're being serious, but in case you are I'll humour you. The reason the help help help is so significant (and the reason so many people get annoyed when it is brought up) is because it strongly suggests that the screams heard were all OP and not Reeva. There are two competing arguments: either the screams were the sounds of a fight/Reeva's terror before she was shot, or they were OP's screams of horror after he realised he had shot her. OP screaming for help is inconsistent with the former interpretation and completely consistent with the latter. That is why they are so important. It means that the screams that are central to the State's case were not Reeva - or at least gives more than reasonable doubt.

BBM I don't think it beyond the realms of possibility that OP's initial plan was to claim that Reeva had been shot by an intruder. Or, indeed by himself, whilst he was fighting off an intruder.

At least one of the witnesses testified that it sounded like there was a 'home invasion', the implication being that it sounded as as if both were simultaneously under attack from an intruder.

As we know only Reeva was under attack, why would it sound as if they both were?
 
Yes, although we only get to see OP's phone data from 17:15 on the 13 Feb, we get Reeva's from midday that day, and it shows two of the calls he made to her were from the 4949 'business' phone. She doesn't call him on that number at all. It looks to me like OP switches the business phone off outside what he considers to be business hours. His phone log suggests this and the evidence shows that calls and texts to it were not reaching it overnight because it is switched off.

Sam Taylor testifies that he normally kept this phone downstairs in the kitchen on charge overnight. This is where I believe it was on that night and he switched it with the 0020 phone to buy time. It's the 0020 phone that Nel refers to being on charge in the kitchen. Why would OP take a phone that is switched off to the bathroom? And why did he need 2 phones? In fact, OP slips slightly when telling the court about fetching his "phone ... both my phones" from the bedroom. He often makes these little slips.

OP only uses the 0020 phone that night and I think initially the 4949 phone is in the kitchen as usual. So why swap it? My guess is that this is key to what happened. The 0020 phone mysteriously disappears and isn't handed back to police until 25 Feb. OP needed to get it out of the house and away from the police. No chain of custody and nothing is read out from that phone's data (just billing records) in court. But the judge has sight of what, or what was not, on it. Was it tampered with? If so, I'd expect some legal action to follow this case.

Following this line of thought, what could be incriminating on the phone that had to be removed? Evidence of someone else?

OP was asleep. Reeva was up (another OP slip perhaps in his EIC when he states twice that he asked Reeva to close curtains etc. "when you come, when you fall asleep". e.g. when you come up/come to bed). At some point she sees something on his phone, maybe something to do with the usage at around 22:30-midnight. At 01:48 she confronts OP about it (5 mins usage on phone). At 01:56 EvdM hears arguing for an hour. Reeva is shouting at OP. She tells him she is leaving. Perhaps what she finds on his phone is damaging to brand Pistorius? We may never know. The result is as we know and it costs Reeva her life.

I’ve appended this to my previous post as it builds on the argument.

In the I2 Analyst Notebook phone usage charts that Moller shows the court the term GPRS is being used generically to mean data connection. Most of the time the data connection is actually 3G, occasionally slipping to 2G. The phone will always attempt to get the best connection available, hence many short 2G connections which are upgraded to 3G when it is offered by the cell tower. This is negotiated via the control channel, the same channel that is also used for SMS messages. The data connection is always on when the phone is on, unless the signal is lost (in an area of poor coverage or tunnel etc.) or the phone is put in Airplane mode. This is why the times shown on Reeva’s chart for each GPRS cell tower are contiguous.

What the chart does not show is data usage but this is available from the carrier (I can see it when I look at my usage online, where is gives times and amounts of data transferred). I imagine this would have been included in the detailed data provided to the judge.

Switching an iPhone on and off when you don’t want to be contacted is time consuming, especially if you do it often. OP would have learned to switch his phone to Airplane mode during his frequent travelling. This suspends the phone’s signal transmission function and is extremely quick to do (if you know how) on an iPhone. You simply slide up the hidden menu and select it to toggle the setting on and off.

When Carice Stander-Viljoen makes the calls on OP’s behalf in the early morning of the 14th the police would have believed that he was using Carice’s phone and thought nothing of it. Carice testifies that she asked OP if there was anyone he wanted to contact.

I believe OP uses Airplane mode rather than switching the phone physically off when he doesn’t wish to be contacted or to stop it ringing and attracting attention to it. It also explains the short GPRS connections to the same cell tower. The cell tower has no reason to re-establish the connection unless of course he’s flicking in and out of Airplane mode, possibly to check for a Voicemail? I’ll put my draft of his phone usage charts up shortly to illustrate this. As an aside it is possible that this is what he does to the 4949 phone each night too when he charges it in the kitchen.

If the above thinking is correct, this tells us a lot and is contrary to what Moller agrees in cross examination by Roux. It may well be possible to tell things from the connection times.

For instance one can see from his phone usage there is no GPRS connection immediately after receiving the call from Pieter Baba. I believe he has switched to Airplane mode. This is no surprise as the call and conversation (“Everything is fine”) put him off his balance. He didn’t expect Baba to be outside. He thought just the Standers would be arriving. Likewise he flicks it on whilst he’s in the garage.

And looking at the previous evening he flicks to Airplane mode when he gets home, when he has dinner and when he goes to sleep. That all makes sense. It's a habit. Then we have the activity that I believe is Reeva discovering something and challenging OP.

Draft OP phone usage analysis to follow shortly.
 
BBM I don't think it beyond the realms of possibility that OP's initial plan was to claim that Reeva had been shot by an intruder. Or, indeed by himself, whilst he was fighting off an intruder.

At least one of the witnesses testified that it sounded like there was a 'home invasion', the implication being that it sounded as as if both were simultaneously under attack from an intruder.

As we know only Reeva was under attack, why would it sound as if they both were?

And this demonstrates why it is so important that the State must prove beyond reasonable doubt, not just that something is not "beyond the realms of possibility". For what its worth, the idea that OP staged the screams etc to create the alibi of a home invasion is, imo, beyond the realms of possibility.
 
FYI: Your ignore list is your friend.
Just saying.....
:seeya:
 
And this demonstrates why it is so important that the State must prove beyond reasonable doubt, not just that something is not "beyond the realms of possibility". For what its worth, the idea that OP staged the screams etc to create the alibi of a home invasion is, imo, beyond the realms of possibility.

Who cares why he shouted off the balcony?

4 ear witnesses heard a woman scream. OP shouted off a balcony and OP does not scream like a woman.
I think I'll take the above advice as we're going around in circles and it's bedtime.
 
If you find the logic irrational and bizarre that is exactly my point: this is the logic you are using to attack OP. People are using inconsistencies and differences between OP's evidence and his bail affidavit etc to say he is lying. I'm making the point that slight differences in the evidence, even multiple slight differences, are commonplace in trials. But yes, as you say, hopefully someone else will address what I say.

Perhaps the following exercise might be useful.

Mistrust every witness and every expert. You are left with OP's version. (Pick any one of three.) When you have done that, consider whether he intended to kill Reeva.
Mistrust every witness and every expert. You are left with OP's version. (Pick any one of three.) When you have done that, consider whether he intended to kill Anyone.
Mistrust every witness and every expert. Mistrust OP. When you have done that, consider whether he intended to kill Reeva.
Mistrust every witness and every expert. Mistrust OP. When you have done that, consider whether he intended to kill Anyone.
Trust every witness & every expert. Trust OP. When you have done that, consider whether he intended to kill Reeva.
Trust every witness & every expert. Trust OP. When you have done that, consider whether he intended to kill Anyone.
Trust every witness and every expert. Mistrust OP. When you have done that, consider whether he intended to kill Reeva.
Trust every witness and every expert. Mistrust OP. When you have done that, consider whether he intended to kill Anyone.

In the 4 options where you are Trusting the witnesses & experts, balance their evidence. Give thought to whether or not their credibility could be compromised.

If you can answer 'No' to every option, then in your view, OP did not intend to kill anyone and it was just an accident.

If you answer Yes to any option, then he is guilty of Murder Directus.
 
1. Ok. But do bear in mind that the actus reus for murder is not killing but unlawful killing.

2. I fully accept that, in practice, the Judge will look at the reasonableness of the Accused's alleged beliefs, as well as his demeanour, in order to determine honesty.

3. If the Accused is found to have had an honest intent but to have acted unreasonably, the killing is unlawful and we are probably looking at culpable homicide, not murder.

BiB…

1. I don't believe one can say "Actus Reus for murder" because murder is a type of death of a human being at the hands of another.

I could be mistaken but I believe that when a human being kills another human being, a crime is automatically committed… therefore Actus Reus is always there… afterwards the liability of that crime depends on the intent and the conduct that resulted in the death… if the intent was lawful and the conduct was lawful, there is no liability for the crime.

2. How do we determine whether the erroneous belief of the accused is honest and genuine ? By inferential reasoning: by an evaluation of objective factors, what is the only inference that can be made regarding the Accused’s state of mind ? (S v DE OLIVIERA ’93)

Therefore, even if the accused's demeanor is perfect and the Judge finds him credible, that is not enough… naturally, if the accused is deemed not-credible, it makes the Judge's determination much easier.

3. I would agree based on what I have read… however I would expect that even if the beliefs and intent were deemed genuine and honest BUT completely unreasonable, the Judge would find that it is still murder based on the improbable beliefs.
 
I appreciate people are devoting a lot of time to this, and that is great.
Its just a shame that those who have also spent time considering the case, but have reached the opposite conclusion are branded sick trolls.
~snipped~

BBM - No more of a shame than it is to accuse those who don't believe in OP's ludicrous fairytale of being 'haters'.
 
And this demonstrates why it is so important that the State must prove beyond reasonable doubt, not just that something is not "beyond the realms of possibility". For what its worth, the idea that OP staged the screams etc to create the alibi of a home invasion is, imo, beyond the realms of possibility.

BBM

I was meeting your claim that Jake was trolling...:banghead:
 
The reason the help help help is so significant (and the reason so many people get annoyed when it is brought up) is because it strongly suggests that the screams heard were all OP and not Reeva. There are two competing arguments: either the screams were the sounds of a fight/Reeva's terror before she was shot, or they were OP's screams of horror after he realised he had shot her. OP screaming for help is inconsistent with the former interpretation and completely consistent with the latter. That is why they are so important. It means that the screams that are central to the State's case were not Reeva - or at least gives more than reasonable doubt.

There is testimony from 3 witnesses that says both a male and female voice could be heard AT THE SAME TIME. It is on record, clarified by the prosecution and restated under cross examination by the defence. It is IMPOSSIBLE to reconcile with Pistorius' version before when he say he is the only one shouting/screaming, or after when Steenkamp is dead.
 
IMO

1. we have no independent evidence that OP shouted HHH from the balcony… only OP's word… and the independent objective evidence seems to indicate that the balcony access was blocked at the time with duvet and large fan.

2. I don't believe OP shouted HHH in pure mockery or to create an alibi… I believe that OP was embarrassed/ashamed AND annoyed/frustrated when Reeva screamed HHH…

… in OP's mind it was embarrassing because the neighbors would certainly hear that and OP would have to face those neighbors on a daily basis… plus there is the whole media aspect… the screams for help by Reeva could be leaked in the media and that would be disastrous for OP's sponsors : another incident of violence towards a woman… not good.

… in OP's mind it was annoying and frustrating because he deemed Reeva was overreacting to the situation they were in… OP mimicked Reeva's behavior to show her how "stupid" her reactions were… By shouting HHH, OP reflected onto Reeva her own behavior… this is a very common and well-known mechanism during a couple's heated argument or between children.

It's a bit like :

X : "Stop or I'm calling the police"
Y : "Go ahead call the police"
X : "I'm serious I'll call the police"
Y : "No problem, I'll call the police myself"

In this example X is probably genuine in her threat to call the police if Y's behavior does not stop… but Y is not genuine in his desire for wanting the police called.

Now say that Y shoots and kills X… witnesses say they heard a both a woman (X) and a man (Y) scream for the police…

… can we infer that Y could not have murdered X because he was heard screaming for the police… I think not… same goes for the HHH in OP's case
 
No it doesn't. OP doesn't scream like a woman.

.. and not only that, but OP would've been wailing, not screaming .. the sounds heard were 'blood curdling' screams from a woman .. there is no way that OP would've been screaming 'blood curdling' screams, the type of scream that is only of someone who knows they are just about to be killed. OP, on 'realising it was Reeva' (in his version) may well have called out, or wailed, but never ever would he have had cause to scream a blood curdling scream like Reeva would've done, and like as what was heard by ear witnesses.
 
BBM I don't think it beyond the realms of possibility that OP's initial plan was to claim that Reeva had been shot by an intruder. Or, indeed by himself, whilst he was fighting off an intruder.

At least one of the witnesses testified that it sounded like there was a 'home invasion', the implication being that it sounded as as if both were simultaneously under attack from an intruder.

As we know only Reeva was under attack, why would it sound as if they both were?

I agree with this. :goodpost:

OP's first line of defense is that he is the victim, he's acted like the victim from that night till now. It's a classic mode for little spoilt brats. OK, I'm judging him which doesn't mean he's a guilty, but then again he is guilty, he did shoot Reeva, and she is/was the only victim. JMO
 
BiB…

1. I don't believe one can say "Actus Reus for murder" because murder is a type of death of a human being at the hands of another.

I could be mistaken but I believe that when a human being kills another human being, a crime is automatically committed… therefore Actus Reus is always there… afterwards the liability of that crime depends on the intent and the conduct that resulted in the death… if the intent was lawful and the conduct was lawful, there is no liability for the crime.

2. How do we determine whether the erroneous belief of the accused is honest and genuine ? By inferential reasoning: by an evaluation of objective factors, what is the only inference that can be made regarding the Accused’s state of mind ? (S v DE OLIVIERA ’93)

Therefore, even if the accused's demeanor is perfect and the Judge finds him credible, that is not enough… naturally, if the accused is deemed not-credible, it makes the Judge's determination much easier.

3. I would agree based on what I have read… however I would expect that even if the beliefs and intent were deemed genuine and honest BUT completely unreasonable, the Judge would find that it is still murder based on the improbable beliefs.

AJ, I think we are, quite possibly, further apart in our understanding than I originally thought :)

I'll refrain from repeating what I've already posted about actus reus.

With regard to the bolded bit, though, as far as I know, murder is all about intent. If the accused is found to have been genuine but unreasonable, it cannot be murder - MOO. (Maybe, there was a finding of murder in some of the older cases).

How does one assess genuineness - yes, there will be an evaluation of objective factors, but a Court can find subjective reasonableness and objective unreasonableness at the same time.
 
And this demonstrates why it is so important that the State must prove beyond reasonable doubt, not just that something is not "beyond the realms of possibility". For what its worth, the idea that OP staged the screams etc to create the alibi of a home invasion is, imo, beyond the realms of possibility.

.. and imo it's not beyond the realms of possibility. It's also not beyond the realms of possibility that he was mocking her, knowing myself what goes on in a DV-type argument, in fact it's highly likely.

If you want someone to literally get away with murder, for killing their girlfriend in a domestic violence situation then that's up to you, I personally would not want that on my conscience, and I believe that justice must be served .. for Reeva's sake.
 
AJ, I think we are, quite possibly, further apart in our understanding than I originally thought :)

I'll refrain from repeating what I've already posted about actus reus.

With regard to the bolded bit, though, as far as I know, murder is all about intent. If the accused is found to have been genuine but unreasonable, it cannot be murder - MOO. (Maybe, there was a finding of murder in some of the older cases).

How does one assess genuineness - yes, there will be an evaluation of objective factors, but a Court can find subjective reasonableness and objective unreasonableness at the same time.

BiB...I agree fully…

As a wise man once said, if everybody agreed about everything we all would be idiots because we certainly cannot all be geniuses !

… so the fact that we disagree on something is a good thing ! :)
 
I’ve appended this to my previous post as it builds on the argument.

In the I2 Analyst Notebook phone usage charts that Moller shows the court the term GPRS is being used generically to mean data connection. Most of the time the data connection is actually 3G, occasionally slipping to 2G. The phone will always attempt to get the best connection available, hence many short 2G connections which are upgraded to 3G when it is offered by the cell tower. This is negotiated via the control channel, the same channel that is also used for SMS messages. The data connection is always on when the phone is on, unless the signal is lost (in an area of poor coverage or tunnel etc.) or the phone is put in Airplane mode. This is why the times shown on Reeva’s chart for each GPRS cell tower are contiguous.

What the chart does not show is data usage but this is available from the carrier (I can see it when I look at my usage online, where is gives times and amounts of data transferred). I imagine this would have been included in the detailed data provided to the judge.

Switching an iPhone on and off when you don’t want to be contacted is time consuming, especially if you do it often. OP would have learned to switch his phone to Airplane mode during his frequent travelling. This suspends the phone’s signal transmission function and is extremely quick to do (if you know how) on an iPhone. You simply slide up the hidden menu and select it to toggle the setting on and off.

When Carice Stander-Viljoen makes the calls on OP’s behalf in the early morning of the 14th the police would have believed that he was using Carice’s phone and thought nothing of it. Carice testifies that she asked OP if there was anyone he wanted to contact.

I believe OP uses Airplane mode rather than switching the phone physically off when he doesn’t wish to be contacted or to stop it ringing and attracting attention to it. It also explains the short GPRS connections to the same cell tower. The cell tower has no reason to re-establish the connection unless of course he’s flicking in and out of Airplane mode, possibly to check for a Voicemail? I’ll put my draft of his phone usage charts up shortly to illustrate this. As an aside it is possible that this is what he does to the 4949 phone each night too when he charges it in the kitchen.

If the above thinking is correct, this tells us a lot and is contrary to what Moller agrees in cross examination by Roux. It may well be possible to tell things from the connection times.

For instance one can see from his phone usage there is no GPRS connection immediately after receiving the call from Pieter Baba. I believe he has switched to Airplane mode. This is no surprise as the call and conversation (“Everything is fine”) put him off his balance. He didn’t expect Baba to be outside. He thought just the Standers would be arriving. Likewise he flicks it on whilst he’s in the garage.

And looking at the previous evening he flicks to Airplane mode when he gets home, when he has dinner and when he goes to sleep. That all makes sense. It's a habit. Then we have the activity that I believe is Reeva discovering something and challenging OP.

Draft OP phone usage analysis to follow shortly.

Great stuff there MrF, I just googled Airplane mode so I'm up to speed. :) Never knew it existed.
 
BiB...I agree fully…

As a wise man once said, if everybody agreed about everything we all would be idiots because we certainly cannot all be geniuses !

… so the fact that we disagree on something is a good thing ! :)

Yes, and we can learn a lot through debate... I certainly have...:)
 
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