Titanic tourist sub goes missing in Atlantic Ocean, June 2023 #3

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I'm possibly alone on this, but after thinking about it some more I do believe the carbon fiber hull could have shown warning signs of failure rather than suffering an instant rupture. Most pressure hulls are made from solid steel or titanium. Cracks are rare, but any crack usually opens very suddenly; that's where most of the knowledge about such failures comes from.

This carbon fiber design is new and seemingly untested. There's no frame of reference for how a failure would manifest.

Poorly applied layers of carbon fiber could result in voids that would be invisible to the naked eye. Only a proper scan of the hull (which apparently wasn't done to Titan) would reveal that. The layers of carbon fiber could also potentlally delaminate, flaking apart like the layers of pastry in a croissant. There also could have been a crack that only ran through a few layers: lets say a crack ran through 2 inches of the five-inch thick hull, but the other three inches were intact.

Under those circumstances it is, theoretically, possible that the hull would have retained enough integrity to survive a little while before finally failing completely.
parts that are subject to repeated stressors get tested ...not just before use, but periodically because each time this vessel was used it could be damaged- would like to see if there was testing going on between "missions" and if they thought there was a "service life" for the hull before it would need repair or replacement, IMO
 
parts that are subject to repeated stressors get tested ...not just before use, but periodically because each time this vessel was used it could be damaged- would like to see if there was testing going on between "missions" and if they thought there was a "service life" for the hull before it would need repair or replacement, IMO
I wonder how they tested the integrity of the carbon fiber and the connections to it between dives...
 
I figure that since OceanGate was a registered non-profit, that the passengers could call it a "donation to science," as it was "raising money for research." Like a charitable donation where the big donors get an experience prize (backstage at the theater! meeting the conductor! getting to go 13,000 feet down to the Titanic!)

The passengers were then "trained" as crew and co-researchers. The research was "on the state of the Titanic."

This is just another way that Rush had of thumbing his nose at regulations and ordinary practices. The Titan, itself, was never bought or sold nor given any kind regular registration in any nation. It's not yet clear if the craft was registered as a craft, anywhere. The Polar Prince was, of course, "hosting" a gadget. It did not need to be certified as a passenger vessel, according to Rush, because it was a gadget used for research in the ocean. So he skirted all kinds of regulations - and even hinted to potential passengers that the Titan had in fact been inspected (see upthread).

So, they weren't "passengers." They were donors and crew. The Titan wasn't a seagoing vessel, it was a DIY project attached to a (registered) ship.

I believe Polar Prince is registered to Canada.

The way in which the rules for this voyage were constructed gave the "crew" only a small bottle of water, no ability to stand up (one of the methods for raising the sub involved having to stand up - so it bothers me that certain pundits keep saying it was "equipped" with 7 methods of rising - it wasn't!

Two were unavailable (balloon and standing up and tilting craft to get it untangled and/or remove ballast). Apparently the total time frame was 8 hours, crew were encouraged not do eat the night before/day of (great way to handicap the brain's best functioning). 19 year old was pressured to go, but scared. No intake interview for this "scientific expedition" (a real scientific expedition funded by any credible grant would involve much more rigorous selection of "crew"). Each trip needed to be treated as we treat manned space missions (governmental oversight, many levels; juried publications; many observers; tons of caution and still things go wrong).

The reporter who keeps appearing on my screen telling me "they had 7 ways of getting up" is driving me crazy.

Because I do not believe they had a verified method of using salt (!) or pipes strapped to the bottom of the Titan (!) which had to be released...mechanically? electrically? Either could fail. We see no salt bags on this craft in the video of it being prepped to enter the water. (Maybe someone can locate them?)

So THREE of the methods were unavailable and the fourth relied on mechanical integrity. Indeed, all methods had something that could go wrong.

But the real problem was those "stress sensors" (that experts say could never have worked to set off an alarm that the Titan was about to implode).

And that makes me put CEO Rush into the same category as many criminals, whose fantasies of "success" at something take over their minds, clouding their reason and making them, really, fairly insane. I do understand that "Safety Third" is a thing and if all the participants had had the knowledge of the French scientist, I wouldn't be typing this. That 19 year old never had a chance. Family dynamics meets crazy rich DIYer with hubris.

My heart goes out to the mother and aunt of Sulemon, who spent 19 years growing up and trying to understand the ordinary world he lived in, then was induced to take this trip as (IMO) an emotional power move. My heart goes out to the family of Nargeolet, but from what I'm hearing in French news, his grandkids were pretty much resigned to/ready for this kind of outcome, given what he was interested in doing.

imo

I can empathize with all of the families but especially Mr. Nargeolet's grandkids here. My brother is very much into extreme hobbies like these men were, and going down to the bottom of the sea in a submersible to see the Titanic is absolutely something he would enthusiastically do, as we wait somewhere safe, biting our nails and praying for him to return from his latest adventure alive.
 
I figure that since OceanGate was a registered non-profit, that the passengers could call it a "donation to science," as it was "raising money for research." Like a charitable donation where the big donors get an experience prize (backstage at the theater! meeting the conductor! getting to go 13,000 feet down to the Titanic!)

The passengers were then "trained" as crew and co-researchers. The research was "on the state of the Titanic."

This is just another way that Rush had of thumbing his nose at regulations and ordinary practices. The Titan, itself, was never bought or sold nor given any kind regular registration in any nation. It's not yet clear if the craft was registered as a craft, anywhere. The Polar Prince was, of course, "hosting" a gadget. It did not need to be certified as a passenger vessel, according to Rush, because it was a gadget used for research in the ocean. So he skirted all kinds of regulations - and even hinted to potential passengers that the Titan had in fact been inspected (see upthread).

So, they weren't "passengers." They were donors and crew. The Titan wasn't a seagoing vessel, it was a DIY project attached to a (registered) ship.

I believe Polar Prince is registered to Canada.

The way in which the rules for this voyage were constructed gave the "crew" only a small bottle of water, no ability to stand up (one of the methods for raising the sub involved having to stand up - so it bothers me that certain pundits keep saying it was "equipped" with 7 methods of rising - it wasn't!

Two were unavailable (balloon and standing up and tilting craft to get it untangled and/or remove ballast). Apparently the total time frame was 8 hours, crew were encouraged not do eat the night before/day of (great way to handicap the brain's best functioning). 19 year old was pressured to go, but scared. No intake interview for this "scientific expedition" (a real scientific expedition funded by any credible grant would involve much more rigorous selection of "crew"). Each trip needed to be treated as we treat manned space missions (governmental oversight, many levels; juried publications; many observers; tons of caution and still things go wrong).

The reporter who keeps appearing on my screen telling me "they had 7 ways of getting up" is driving me crazy.

Because I do not believe they had a verified method of using salt (!) or pipes strapped to the bottom of the Titan (!) which had to be released...mechanically? electrically? Either could fail. We see no salt bags on this craft in the video of it being prepped to enter the water. (Maybe someone can locate them?)

So THREE of the methods were unavailable and the fourth relied on mechanical integrity. Indeed, all methods had something that could go wrong.

But the real problem was those "stress sensors" (that experts say could never have worked to set off an alarm that the Titan was about to implode).

And that makes me put CEO Rush into the same category as many criminals, whose fantasies of "success" at something take over their minds, clouding their reason and making them, really, fairly insane. I do understand that "Safety Third" is a thing and if all the participants had had the knowledge of the French scientist, I wouldn't be typing this. That 19 year old never had a chance. Family dynamics meets crazy rich DIYer with hubris.

My heart goes out to the mother and aunt of Sulemon, who spent 19 years growing up and trying to understand the ordinary world he lived in, then was induced to take this trip as (IMO) an emotional power move. My heart goes out to the family of Nargeolet, but from what I'm hearing in French news, his grandkids were pretty much resigned to/ready for this kind of outcome, given what he was interested in doing.

imo

Kudos for this.

Totally agree.
 
Do we know at what point OG was notified?
They could have notified them at the time they learned of it. Just not giving away very many details as the CG may not have had them either. Just that something was heard that had a signature similar to an implosion type event, but could also be other things. I wonder if the timing of the sound matched the timing of the loss of communication, which may have already been mentioned. Did they reveal the depth of the signature?
 
I don't think that's how it went down.

I think they went back and looked at their sound files once the event had occurred.

ICBW. Open to correction.

IMO.

No one was paying attention to that tiny sector of the Atlantic at the exact point in time when the Titan stopped responding.

IMO. The Navy found the facts after it went missing (although it could have been reported as an anomaly in the Titanic sector).

RBBM

I would agree with this.

JMVHO.
 
I'm possibly alone on this, but after thinking about it some more I do believe the carbon fiber hull could have shown warning signs of failure rather than suffering an instant rupture. Most pressure hulls are made from solid steel or titanium. Cracks are rare, but any crack usually opens very suddenly; that's where most of the knowledge about such failures comes from.

This carbon fiber design is new and seemingly untested. There's no frame of reference for how a failure would manifest.

Poorly applied layers of carbon fiber could result in voids that would be invisible to the naked eye. Only a proper scan of the hull (which apparently wasn't done to Titan) would reveal that. The layers of carbon fiber could also potentlally delaminate, flaking apart like the layers of pastry in a croissant. There also could have been a crack that only ran through a few layers: lets say a crack ran through 2 inches of the five-inch thick hull, but the other three inches were intact.

Under those circumstances it is, theoretically, possible that the hull would have retained enough integrity to survive a little while before finally failing completely.
James Cameron would agree with you, he says what your saying, that the materials used for the Titan do not hold up with continued pressure. At first everything seems fine but as more deep dives are completed the stress on the materials builds up damage and then there is an implosion.
  1. The Titan was constructed from carbon fibre and titanium. This combination of materials produced a craft significantly lighter than submersibles made primarily of steel or titanium.

2 Cents
 
I wonder how they tested the integrity of the carbon fiber and the connections to it between dives...
I remember Boeing really struggled with this, as they use carbon fiber for the 787 Dreamliner. No commercial airplane had ever used it this extensively before so they needed to understand how the material holds up over its lifetime.

There's a video showing how Boeing simulated 100,000 landings over three years.

The pressures exerted on the Titan at 400 ATM should require similar if not greater testing, but that would be impossible for a small concern like OceanGate. Yet without it, how would they even know what to inspect and what a potential failure condition would look like.
 
They could have notified them at the time they learned of it. Just not giving away very many details as the CG may not have had them either. Just that something was heard that had a signature similar to an implosion type event, but could also be other things. I wonder if the timing of the sound matched the timing of the loss of communication, which may have already been mentioned. Did they reveal the depth of the signature?

Good question. It hasn’t been mentioned in the reports I have seen but perhaps someone else may have caught it in the magnitude of information that is circulating.

If the timing occurred synchronously that can be added to experimental data.
 

If this is true, perhaps the authorities were trying to confirm debris etc existed before going public.

Or it was felt that a ‘search and rescue’ was expected even though they knew it was futile?
 

Very good interview with Cameron. At 3:00 he says he heard the vessel dropped it's weights 200 meters above the ocean floor. The only way they could know that is if they had called that in, that they were ascending. He thinks they had warning.
 

If this is true, perhaps the authorities were trying to confirm debris etc existed before going public.

Or it was felt that a ‘search and rescue’ was expected even though they knew it was futile?

I'm going to link another New York Times article explaining what the Navy found:

The U.S. Navy, using data from a secret network of underwater sensors designed to track hostile submarines, detected “an anomaly consistent with an implosion or explosion” in the vicinity of the Titan submersible at the time communications with the vessel were lost on Sunday, two senior Navy officials said on Thursday.
But with no other indications of a catastrophe, one of the officials said, the search was continued.

The data from the sensors was combined with information from airborne Navy P-8 surveillance planes and sonar buoys on the surface to triangulate the approximate location of the Titan, one of the officials said. The analysis of undersea acoustic data and information about the location of the noise were then passed on to the Coast Guard official in charge of the search, Rear Adm. John Mauger.

The key words here, IMO, are "an anomaly consistent with an implosion or explosion".

Even though said anomaly happened in the vicinity of the Titan, and it happened around the time the Titan lost communication, confirmation of the debris absolutely had to be done. Period.

The authorities may have been 99.9% certain there would be no rescue; they may have been prepared for a search- and recovery-effort from the get-go.

But, without verifying the debris, can you image how the families would have reacted? Forever wondering if their loved ones perished?

Speaking for myself, I would want debris confirmation.

ETA: I am sitting on my hands regarding Mr. Cameron's opinion!

Secret Navy sensors detected a possible implosion around the time the Titan’s communications failed..

JMVHO.
 
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If the status of the "passengers" was "employees" or even considered "researchers" to bypass laws on passenger craft, I would still think OceanGate has a lot of problems in regards to worker safety laws. This article isn't going to help the company.

 
Very good interview with Cameron. At 3:00 he says he heard the vessel dropped it's weights 200 meters above the ocean floor. The only way they could know that is if they had called that in, that they were ascending. He thinks they had warning.
WOW...This man has excellent sources and obviously, great comprehension both of submersible design and the mission procedures and protocols. That anyone knows they jettisoned the weights back on Tuesday means communications of some sort were re-established; and the people on board the Polar Prince certainly had to be aware that the submersible was trying to ascend and that the mission had effectively been scrubbed. His characterization of the continuing search for survivors as a "charade" is lent verity when this information is added to the stew. MOO of course.

He was careful to indicate that while these were not official sources and he did not confirm some of his information, he felt his sources were credible and reliable.

I thing the Coast Guard's production of a timeline will be a very interesting document, assuming it gets published...Again MOO
 
Wow, if you watch one video onTwitter let this one be it. Well worth it and appreciate the no nonsense, honesty of it all!

Bob Ballard, who first discovered the Titanic in 1985, tells @kyraphillips: "We knew instantly that it was game over." 'Titanic' director James Cameron adds: "The only scenario I could imagine was a catastrophic implosion."

Wow. So the community pretty much knew right away.

I think it’s okay that the family didn’t know though. It’s sometimes easier to get adjusted to tragedy when you have periods of hope.
 
I don't think the Navy Sensors are secret because in another group I am in, on the day Titan went missing, people were posting about the implosion picked up by the Navy. They had screenshots showing the movement in that area of the ocean, picked up at the time communication was lost. Apparently there is a website that monitors and posts all the abnormal movements in the ocean. Unfortunately, I don't know the name of the website, but the info about the what the Navy picked up was definitely out there the day they went missing.
 
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