Found Safe TN - Mary Catherine Elizabeth Thomas, 15, Maury County, 13 March 2017 #13 *Arrest*

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I wish there was a new lead, new information or something to go off of. I can't imagine in all his planning that he didn't leave clues on a computer somewhere of somewhere he might be heading. I wish his family would release his interests, favorite destinations, more info about him, if he had any adult close friends out of state. Idk. I'm just sad for this girl and her family. MOO
 
Coffeequeen said:
I wish there was a new lead, new information or something to go off of. I can't imagine in all his planning that he didn't leave clues on a computer somewhere of somewhere he might be heading. I wish his family would release his interests, favorite destinations, more info about him, if he had any adult close friends out of state. Idk. I'm just sad for this girl and her family. MOO
Click to expand...
I suspect his family isn't the ones withholding information but rather have been told by authorities not to.

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alas said:
I suspect his family isn't the ones withholding information but rather have been told by authorities not to.

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Click to expand...

You're probably right. I hope the authorities know a lot more than we do and have some ideas.
 
I've finished watching all seven episodes of Hunted. This is at heart a silly reality competition television show but I've tried to work through the contrivances and BS elements to get to the nitty-gritty: WHAT DID TAD LEARN FROM THIS SHOW? Here are my notes:

Tactics used by "fugitives"

  • Draft emails as means of hidden communication
  • Snail mail as means to communicate with family/friends
  • Purchasing burner phones
  • Staying with strangers (asking to sleep in their shed on on their porch for one night)
  • Staying with family or friends
  • Getting "caught" purposely on ATM surveillance camera then double-backing travel route
  • Paying strangers in parking lot to purchase fast food at nearby restaurant
  • Asking strangers to borrow their phone in order to make quick calls to "helpers"
  • Using a taxi as transport
  • Shaving head bald (male)
  • Making phone call from burner phone then throwing that phone out car window
  • Borrowing vehicle from contact who owns car dealership
  • Backing out of gas station in a way that avoids having license plate visible to cameras
  • Returning to start point of journey weeks later when heat in that area has died down
  • Staying in an area of familiarity in order to exploit "home" advantage
  • Ruse phone call to family member asking to be picked up to create wild goose chase diversion

Tactics used by intel and "hunters"

  • Decrypted from a desk calendar what was written on the previous month's page
  • Investigated all burner phone purchases within five mile radius of fugitive's start point
  • Mail intercept*
  • Accessing cloud accounts in addition to search histories
  • License plate reader technology
  • Helicopters and drones
  • Establishing who a person's "Circle of Trust" is from social media
  • Establishing a person's secondary and tertiary contacts from social media
  • Making Venn diagrams of contacts to establish networks
  • Flooding the teams' FB pages with "Wanted" posters in order to fish for reward-takers

LE Analysts' insights and tips

  • "Go dark. Back to the stone age" - don't use anything with electricity
  • The sound of helicopters is effective in flushing out fugitives - they run when they hear them
  • "Speed, surprise, violence of action" - SWAT tactical method of apprehending fugitives
  • Virtually impossible to avoid license plate readers in any US metropolitan area
  • Overconfidence and cockiness on behalf of fugitive will lead to their downfall
  • Even a little mistake can get you caught and it only takes one

NOTE: Every team in this challenge relied on other people to help them evade capture. Naturally, in real life, if you're a fugitive you're not going to get tons of family/friends/strangers willing to get involved with harboring you but it is interesting in general to witness how hard being on the run is without outside assistance to some degree.

*I didn't believe that mail intercept was a real thing. Turns out it is (they don't read contents, just what's on the envelope):

http://www.wfmynews2.com/news/local...law-enforcement-can-track-your-mail/395260721


 
MsMtOlympus said:
I've finished watching all seven episodes of Hunted. This is at heart a silly reality competition television show but I've tried to work through the contrivances and BS elements to get to the nitty-gritty: WHAT DID TAD LEARN FROM THIS SHOW? Here are my notes:

Tactics used by "fugitives"

  • Draft emails as means of hidden communication
  • Snail mail as means to communicate with family/friends
  • Purchasing burner phones
  • Staying with strangers (asking to sleep in their shed on on their porch for one night)
  • Staying with family or friends
  • Getting "caught" purposely on ATM surveillance camera then double-backing travel route
  • Paying strangers in parking lot to purchase fast food at nearby restaurant
  • Asking strangers to borrow their phone in order to make quick calls to "helpers"
  • Using a taxi as transport
  • Shaving head bald (male)
  • Making phone call from burner phone then throwing that phone out car window
  • Borrowing vehicle from contact who owns car dealership
  • Backing out of gas station in a way that avoids having license plate visible to cameras
  • Returning to start point of journey weeks later when heat in that area has died down
  • Staying in an area of familiarity in order to exploit "home" advantage
  • Ruse phone call to family member asking to be picked up to create wild goose chase diversion

Tactics used by intel and "hunters"

  • Decrypted from a desk calendar what was written on the previous month's page
  • Investigated all burner phone purchases within five mile radius of fugitive's start point
  • Mail intercept*
  • Accessing cloud accounts in addition to search histories
  • License plate reader technology
  • Helicopters and drones
  • Establishing who a person's "Circle of Trust" is from social media
  • Establishing a person's secondary and tertiary contacts from social media
  • Making Venn diagrams of contacts to establish networks
  • Flooding the teams' FB pages with "Wanted" posters in order to fish for reward-takers

LE Analysts' insights and tips

  • "Go dark. Back to the stone age" - don't use anything with electricity
  • The sound of helicopters is effective in flushing out fugitives - they run when they hear them
  • "Speed, surprise, violence of action" - SWAT tactical method of apprehending fugitives
  • Virtually impossible to avoid license plate readers in any US metropolitan area
  • Overconfidence and cockiness on behalf of fugitive will lead to their downfall
  • Even a little mistake can get you caught and it only takes one

NOTE: Every team in this challenge relied on other people to help them evade capture. Naturally, in real life, if you're a fugitive you're not going to get tons of family/friends/strangers willing to get involved with harboring you but it is interesting in general to witness how hard being on the run is without outside assistance to some degree.

*I didn't believe that mail intercept was a real thing. Turns out it is (they don't read contents, just what's on the envelope):

http://www.wfmynews2.com/news/local...law-enforcement-can-track-your-mail/395260721
Click to expand...

Thank you for the great summary, good job! Lots to think about.
 
I have not been following on here for awhile so this has probably been mentioned but I just can not help noticing that his soon to be ex wife looks a little like Elizabeth. I wonder if Elizabeth reminded him of a younger version of his wife. Something about the eyes and hair. Anyhow he is just one creepy selfish man. Very sad that he is still on the run with her.
 
Draft emails as means of hidden communication
They did that, which leads me to believe that they’ve done other things on the list.

Snail mail as means to communicate with family/friends
We’ve had no indication that either of them is communicating with family or friends…. yet.

Purchasing burner phones
Possible if he wants to go online occasionally, but I think they are largely unplugged. I definitely don't think TC is letting ET use a phone!

Staying with strangers (asking to sleep in their shed or on their porch for one night.)
Possible, but probably works better for reality show fugitives than real fugitives.

Staying with family or friends.
Possible, but unlikely. I still want to know who was initially going to help them, according to ET’s “friend”.

Getting "caught" purposely on ATM surveillance camera then double-backing travel route.
Possible, but dangerous. TC might be arrogant enough to try it. However, if he wanted to make sure they were seen, why the hair/goatee dying? If he indeed did this, then look for them on the Gulf Coast. Also, IF this is what they did, it may have been TC himself who alerted LE to check the surveillance cameras at the Walmart in OKC.

Paying strangers in parking lot to purchase fast food at nearby restaurant.
Again, I think this would work better for reality show fugitives.

Asking strangers to borrow their phone in order to make quick calls to "helpers".
I really, really hope that nobody is helping them, but you never know.

Using a taxi as transport.
Possible.

Shaving head bald (male)
He’s almost bald as it is, don’t think it would change him that much. Maybe he shaved off the goatee, or went blonde.

Making phone call from burner phone then throwing that phone out car window.
I doubt if they are calling anyone.

Borrowing vehicle from contact who owns car dealership.
This would be absolutely brilliant, especially if the contact also hid his other car. But I vote “not likely”.

IMHO :cow:
 
Kapua said:
Draft emails as means of hidden communication
They did that, which leads me to believe that they’ve done other things on the list.

Snail mail as means to communicate with family/friends
We’ve had no indication that either of them is communicating with family or friends…. yet.

Purchasing burner phones
Possible if he wants to go online occasionally, but I think they are largely unplugged.

Staying with strangers (asking to sleep in their shed or on their porch for one night.
Possible, but probably works better for reality show fugitives than real fugitives.

Staying with family or friends.
Possible, but unlikely. I still want to know who was initially going to help them, according to ET’s “friend”.

Getting "caught" purposely on ATM surveillance camera then double-backing travel route.

Possible, but dangerous. TC might be arrogant enough to try it. However, if he wanted to make sure they were seen, why the hair/goatee dying? If he indeed did this, then look for them on the Gulf Coast. Also, IF this is what they did, it may have been TC himself who alerted LE to check the surveillance cameras at the Walmart.

Paying strangers in parking lot to purchase fast food at nearby restaurant.
Again, I think this would work better for reality show fugitives.

Asking strangers to borrow their phone in order to make quick calls to "helpers".
I really, really hope that nobody is helping them, but you never know.

Using a taxi as transport.
Possible.

Shaving head bald (male)
He’s almost bald as it is, don’t think it would change him that much. Maybe he shaved off the goatee, or went blonde.

Making phone call from burner phone then throwing that phone out car window.
I doubt if they are calling anyone.

Borrowing vehicle from contact who owns car dealership.
This would be absolutely brilliant, especially if the contact also hid his other car. But I vote “not likely”.
Click to expand...

Thank you for your responses, Kapua! :) Yeah, lots of tactics that probably don't hold water in real life as much as they do on television, especially when the "fugitives" are being accompanied by a camera crew while "on the run". But man, TC and ET are still missing and I'm now open to almost any theory on how he's pulled this off for so long. Wasn't a a believer in the "he has help" theory until very recently. And stupid Hunted helped me get there, if you can believe it.
 
MsMtOlympus said:
Thank you for your responses, Kapua! :) Yeah, lots of tactics that probably don't hold water in real life as much as they do on television, especially when the "fugitives" are being accompanied by a camera crew while "on the run". But man, TC and ET are still missing and I'm now open to almost any theory on how he's pulled this off for so long. Wasn't a a believer in the "he has help" theory until very recently. And stupid Hunted helped me get there, if you can believe it.
Click to expand...

It's SO great that you watched this to get some insight into his possible tactics!! I'm rethinking a few things; particularly the Walmart sighting. What if that was intentional? I didn't think so, but now I'm thinking, hmmm. I know he has a hoodie... They dye their hair/his goatee, get on camera, and then change appearances again.
 
MsMtOlympus said:
I've finished watching all seven episodes of Hunted. This is at heart a silly reality competition television show but I've tried to work through the contrivances and BS elements to get to the nitty-gritty: WHAT DID TAD LEARN FROM THIS SHOW? Here are my notes:

Tactics used by "fugitives"

  • Draft emails as means of hidden communication
  • Snail mail as means to communicate with family/friends
  • Purchasing burner phones
  • Staying with strangers (asking to sleep in their shed on on their porch for one night)[/URL]
    [/FONT]

Click to expand...


  • There's a site called couch surfing. People - backpackers and the like stay at peoples homes for free using a floor, couch or spare bed. I don't believe is what he's doing but who knows with him.

    Also I was just reading the news and came across an article that made TC pop into my head immediately. January 2018 begins a new travel law. For some states they are no longer allowed to use a drivers license to fly because the do not verify the person is who they say they are. Anyone can go in with a document and say 'yeah, this is me' and get away with it. Perhaps he's gone to another state and gotten fresh ID's for himself and his 'daughter'. And it costs under $20 as opposed to hundreds.

    https://www.simplemost.com/state-dr...partner&utm_campaign=scripps&utm_content=WEWS

    Sent from my LG-K540 using Tapatalk
 
spiritseeker31 said:
There's a site called couch surfing. People - backpackers and the like stay at peoples homes for free using a floor, couch or spare bed. I don't believe is what he's doing but who knows with him.

Also I was just reading the news and came across an article that made TC pop into my head immediately. January 2018 begins a new travel law. For some states they are no longer allowed to use a drivers license to fly because the do not verify the person is who they say they are. Anyone can go in with a document and say 'yeah, this is me' and get away with it. Perhaps he's gone to another state and gotten fresh ID's for himself and his 'daughter'. And it costs under $20 as opposed to hundreds.

https://www.simplemost.com/state-dr...partner&utm_campaign=scripps&utm_content=WEWS

Sent from my LG-K540 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Interesting!
Lo and behold the DMV in Oklahoma City is about a mile from the Walmart they were seen at.
There is also a Nissan dealership right next door to that Walmart.
He could have easily parked at the used car sales lot and walked to both the DMV and Walmart!

MOO

MOO
 
Pamela_Brewer said:
Interesting!
Lo and behold the DMV in Oklahoma City is about a mile from the Walmart they were seen at.
There is also a Nissan dealership right next door to that Walmart.
He could have easily parked at the used car sales lot and walked to both the DMV and Walmart!

MOO

MOO
Click to expand...
With the great invention of computers I am easily able to adjust insurance cards/forms into another name. The same can be done with credit card statement or many other things that can be used as identification.

Sent from my LG-K540 using Tapatalk
 
spiritseeker31 said:
There's a site called couch surfing. People - backpackers and the like stay at peoples homes for free using a floor, couch or spare bed. I don't believe is what he's doing but who knows with him.

Also I was just reading the news and came across an article that made TC pop into my head immediately. January 2018 begins a new travel law. For some states they are no longer allowed to use a drivers license to fly because the do not verify the person is who they say they are. Anyone can go in with a document and say 'yeah, this is me' and get away with it. Perhaps he's gone to another state and gotten fresh ID's for himself and his 'daughter'. And it costs under $20 as opposed to hundreds.

https://www.simplemost.com/state-dr...partner&utm_campaign=scripps&utm_content=WEWS

Sent from my LG-K540 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

According to your link...Eight states failed to change the DL to minimum government standards. BUT passport, military ID and state ID have to be shown. Its not quite a"yeah this is me" credit card will work.
 
And... ET telling her friend that they went west could have been a diversionary tactic. They may have gone east - maybe to Louisiana or Florida.
 
Kapua said:
It's SO great that you watched this to get some insight into his possible tactics!! I'm rethinking a few things; particularly the Walmart sighting. What if that was intentional? I didn't think so, but now I'm thinking, hmmm. I know he has a hoodie... They dye their hair/his goatee, get on camera, and then change appearances again.
Click to expand...

I've thought that all along. She's had red hair before, and he made only minor changes to his appearance - and she was wearing HIS shirt. If I'm right, he called in the "tip' once they were far from OKC, and by now they've made more drastic changes to their looks. I'd guess that his beard is gone, and either his head has been shaved or he's blond. She's probably blond as well (or has black hair - maybe dressed 'goth'?) and her hair is likely much shorter. I wouldn't totally rule out the possibility that she might be dressed as/pretending to be a boy - after all, nobody is looking for a guy and his son/grandson.
 
Rosewater20 said:
I have not been following on here for awhile so this has probably been mentioned but I just can not help noticing that his soon to be ex wife looks a little like Elizabeth. I wonder if Elizabeth reminded him of a younger version of his wife. Something about the eyes and hair. Anyhow he is just one creepy selfish man. Very sad that he is still on the run with her.
Click to expand...

Both JC and ET have a frontal lisp as well.
 
johunt said:
According to your link...Eight states failed to change the DL to minimum government standards. BUT passport, military ID and state ID have to be shown. Its not quite a"yeah this is me" credit card will work.
Click to expand...

I don't know how much things have changed since then, but some years back I lost my wallet. I don't remember it being very difficult to get my license replaced. If he knew someone who looked much like him (family member? brother? cousin?) and knew their information, then he might have been able to go to the DMV and say he needed a replacement license because he lost his - and get one in the relative's name. It could have been done some time before he took off with ET. As for her, I'm not sure how much documentation a "parent" would need to get an ID for his daughter?
 
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