Trial Discussion Thread #3 - 14.03.08-09, Weekend

[sorrell skye]

It has not been proven - at best, some alternate possibilities have been discussed, but something being possible (or even probable) is not "beyond a reasonable doubt." You have to completely eliminate Oscar's version as being possible before you approach the requisite burden of proof.

To add to your list, I was not surprised OJ was acquitted because the state did not present their evidence effectively and their primary witnesses were impeached.

BBM

I believe the burden of proof in the SA legal system is similar to the US system.

In the trials I've watched, the jury instructions never included the instruction to eliminate all doubt, but must overcome reasonable doubt.

'Beyond a shadow of a doubt' and 'beyond a reasonable doubt' are vastly different.

Beyond a shadow of a doubt eliminates any and all doubt. The State is not required to meet that burden of proof.

Beyond a reasonable doubt can still leave room for doubt, but any remaining doubt will weigh less than the belief in what the State has presented.

So I don't believe it's accurate to say that one must completely eliminate OP's version as possible in order to reach a conclusion of guilt.

 

[shane13]

I do not remember reading about the one shot and two echoes but that is what I am now thinking too.

This is what I used to believe:



Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...lengthy-gap-bursts-gunfire.html#ixzz2vPiSNvOI

Now I am wondering if it could be:

About 3.07am ONE SHOT - TWO ECHOES

10 MINUTES (I thought Dr Stipp said about 10 minutes)

This is where we surmised that OP phoned his brother and lawyer and started covering up PREMEDITATION?

3.17 THREE SHOTS

Was Reeva wounded with the first shot?

Why do you not do a multi-post now and include my Gun Shots and Bat SHots piece from yesterday???
As it also includes my theory on echoes in first volley from Dr. Stipp. Do not abbreviate it.

 

[MURDERER_SERVANT]

Do you think that OP's call to security with no speech but only crying heard at 03:21:33 (Roux mentioned the time ) has kind of any significance ? A few minutes earlier when Baba had called him , he had said 'Security Everything is fine ' . Could it be that this call was made only to leave a calling trace on the records.. He was aware that Security would arrive in a few minutes.

 

[MeeBee]

To me, this is why people end up surprised by verdicts. I wasn't surprised by the Casey Anthony verdict, and I won't be surprised if it is not proven Pistorius knew Reeva was behind that door. Both scenarios are possible, and neither need great leaps to be true. The question is only which the evidence better supports. That is far from clear at this point I think.

I don't even think you can compare. If you watched the Anthony trial, the state proved their case. The jury, inexplicably, did not do their job properly. I won't be surprised if this verdict is not guilty of premeditated murder. I also won't be surprised if he is found guilty of premeditated murder. It all depends on how the judge views the evidence.

 

[Estelle]

On Gun Shots and “Bat Shots”

This mostly pertains to Dr. Stipp’s recollections of 2 alleged volleys of 3 shots each and some general info.

“Bat shots’ is a term someone here used. Not me, but I thank whoever coined it, as the term incorporates its own lack of credibility.

Stipp was awoken by the first set of alleged shots. He could be mistaken as to the # of shots he heard, or there could be echoes involved, or something else going on. To me, it is possible that his first volley of 3 shots heard were one shot and 2 echoes—accounting for 4 shots totally fired (allegedly).

As I noted several times, gunshots incorporate sonic booms, unlike “bat shots.’

In short, despite Roux trying to “put it to us” that the witnesses all heard “bat shots”, I have no trouble understanding that (depending on the state of the bathroom windows perhaps) none of the earwitnesses heard bat strikes, as I think its decibel level will be far lower than the gunshots.

Again the rapidity, reported by the witnesses, of the shots also makes it likely these were gunshots, not cricket bat shots.

Also the wood-on-wood sound should be distinct enough so that witnesses would have said they heard sounds attributed to such “bat shots”. None did apparently.

I have raised the possibility that I may not agree with both versions of events after they are laid out.

But both sides will present their forensics and ballistics and maybe audio evidence in the coming days and weeks, so I will reserve judgment.

But we should not accept ipso facto that earwitnesses heard any “batshots” just because Roux (or anyone else) says so.

Excellent post, Shane.


Originally Posted by Estelle:

I do not remember reading anything about the one shot and two echoes but that is what I am now thinking too.

This is what I used to believe: ONE SHOT 17 MINUTES OF SILENCE THREE SHOTS


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz2vPiSNvOI

Now I am wondering if it could be:

About 3.07am ONE SHOT + TWO ECHOES

10 MINUTES (Dr Stipp said about 10 minutes - could be 10-17 minutes going back to 3am)

This is where we surmised that OP phoned his brother and lawyer and started covering up

PREMEDITATION AS PISTORIUS SHOULD HAVE STOPPED SHOOTING BEFORE FIRING THE FINAL THREE SHOTS?

3.17 THREE SHOTS

Was Reeva wounded with the first shot and finally dead with the last shot?

 

[katydid23]

I have not seen anything reported about what was in her overnight bag. Either way, I don't think it's unusual that she would be sleeping in a t-shirt and yoga shorts.

I have no idea how it could be proved the order of the shots, but I don't really see how it matters either way. If he shot her with 4 shots in quick succession, it is reasonable to believe she had no opportunity to scream. And if she did scream, it is also reasonable to believe that he didn't hear it over the gunshots.

BBM

I disagree. Every witness seems to agree that there was one initial shot, then three in rapid succession. After the initial shot, if it was her thigh or shoulder, she would have been screaming out in pain and mortal fear, imo.

And he would have easily heard it. Especially if he supposedly was hunting for intruders. Wouldn't he be listening for voices to monitor how many and whether they were dead or alive?

I think the shot order is going to be crucial to this case. If his initial shots were NOT to the head, his story falls part, imo. :moo:

 

[katydid23]

Do you think that OP's call to security with no speech but only crying heard at 03:21:33 (Roux mentioned the time ) has kind of any significance ? A few minutes earlier when Baba had called him , he had said 'Security Everything is fine ' . Could it be that this call was made only to leave a calling trace on the records.. He was aware that Security would arrive in a few minutes.

I think it might have been a BUTT DIAL. :doh:

 

[Zinn]

Has it been revealed whether or not all bullet holes are present in the remaining part of the door that was not splintered away with the cricket bat? Or were any of the bullet holes observed within the batted out panels?

 

[katydid23]

BBM

The whole pitch black bedroom and not seeing Reeva just bugs me so much. He was the one that made the room pitch black by closing the balcony door, blinds & curtains.

In that same exact moment he hears a "terror-inducing" sound in the bathroom. Why not just crack open the curtains an inch to give you light enough to see where Reeva is? It was he who induced the pitch-blackness and he had the immediate means to fix that without turning on a light.

He presents the incident as if he had no other choice but to blast through a door way and kill who was on the other side but if you look at the story, you can see 100 other extremely logical things that he could have easily done along the way.

BBM

Exactly. For example, he had a few cell phones within reach. He could have grabbed his loaded gun, picked up the cell and called security and advised them of the possible intruder. Then woken up his sleeping girlfriend, and exited. Or waited on the balcony with their loaded weapon and shot anything that moved, while waiting for security.

Why did he think someone climbed into his bathroom, when his two guard dogs never barked. My German Shepherd GOE NUTS if anyone comes near our yard. I dont get scared unless my dog is barking a certain way. She barks at squirrels and cats and the garbage truck and I ignore it. But if she feels that someone is lurking, she has a very aggressive, loud and scary bark. Why would he think his dogs weren't barking if there was someone crawling into his upstairs window? He obviously did not think it though.

 

[sorrell skye]

I don't even think you can compare. If you watched the Anthony trial, the state proved their case. The jury, inexplicably, did not do their job properly. I won't be surprised if this verdict is not guilty of premeditated murder. I also won't be surprised if he is found guilty of premeditated murder. It all depends on how the judge views the evidence.

I think one reason why the Pinellas 12 acquitted CA was because they didn't understand the jury instructions regarding doubt.

I think the majority of them believed they were required to erase any and all doubt, which was a huge mistake on their part.

The State isn't required to eliminate any & all doubt, but must simply overcome a reasonable doubt.

I believe SA has a similar system of burden of proof, based on my reading last year.

 

[Zinn]

Do you think that OP's call to security with no speech but only crying heard at 03:21:33 (Roux mentioned the time ) has kind of any significance ? A few minutes earlier when Baba had called him , he had said 'Security Everything is fine ' . Could it be that this call was made only to leave a calling trace on the records.. He was aware that Security would arrive in a few minutes.

My impression from reading the tweets from court reporters is that Baba did not believe OP when he stated everything was fine because he believed he heard OP crying toward the end of the call. He mentioned this to another guard and asked OP to come downstairs because he felt something was wrong, but I don't know if this was during the first call or via voicemail or text message. I could be wrong but I got the impression Baba believed OP was calling him back in regard to that request but he only cried and didn't speak. A few minutes later, Stander and his daughter (or wife?) arrived, parked quickly in the street, and Stander rushed to the door. Stander or his daughter/wife opened the door and Stander stood in the door, partially blocking the view, but Baba was able to see OP walking down the stairs with Reeva. Stander then asked Baba to call police and paramedics and Baba left to do so. He never went inside the house.

I believe the timing of the calls is also in question. Roux and Baba disagree about who placed the first call (Baba or O.P.).

As always, all of the above is just my opinion.

 

[Feynman]

excerpted quote:

So how many women in the world would watch X-rated *advertiser censored* with their partner on a mobile phone? I don't know of any. Voyeurism not activity?

Is that what a loving relationship is all about on the eve of Valentine's Day?

I have some questions for you:

Why did OP conveniently forget his password?

Why did they find it so important that they sent a detective to the USA to unlock the phone just before the trial started and then this information about his watching X-rated *advertiser censored* sites was then released just before the trial?

[/url]

Plenty of loving couples watch *advertiser censored* together.

On the topic of the iphone/password. This has been discussed forever on these boards. My recollection is this: The iphone password is not the issue; the phone could be unlocked. It's the password to the Whatsapp encrypted messages that was of interest to the PT.*

Why is/was the PT so interested? The answer should be obvious: Find all hard evidence you can re the events of Feb 13/14 2013.

*So much has been written about "unlocking the iphone" in the MSM that I begin to doubt my own explanation. I did research on this issue last year, and the above is what I found. If someone else has definitive facts that counter the above, please do not hesitate to contribute.

 

[MURDERER_SERVANT]

Has it been revealed whether or not all bullet holes are present in the remaining part of the door that was not splintered away with the cricket bat? Or were any of the bullet holes observed within the batted out panels?

We have not heard any mention of that yet. My guess is that after the bat hitts some parts of the door was partially broken but still on the door and two shots was thru that broken portion and two shots thru other remaining part. OP then
pushed the broken panel to the floor and grabbing the key which was inside on the floor , opened the door .JMO

 

[MeeBee]

I think one reason why the Pinellas 12 acquitted CA was because they didn't understand the jury instructions regarding doubt.

I think the majority of them believed they were required to erase any and all doubt, which was a huge mistake on their part.

The State isn't required to eliminate any & all doubt, but must simply overcome a reasonable doubt.

I believe SA has a similar system of burden of proof, based on my reading last year.

I believe that was part of it. Mason has a hand in that in his explaining of reasonable doubt to them. For some reason, the state didn't expound much on that in their final closing and make sure the jury actually understood reasonable donut and burden of proof. That was their mistake.

I think bias played a part. There were a couple jurors who appeared not to like Jeff Ashton. It appears they didn't look at any evidence while they were in the jury room or even read their instructions. The one juror said, "how can you give someone the death penalty if you aren't sure if they are guilty of the crime?" demonstrating a complete lack of understanding of their instructions at that time across the board.

There was a mountain of evidence against Casey. The only way to explain away at least some of her culpability is if you believe the defense when they say her father was pulling the strings and made her do what she did. But the jury rejected that story and claimed it was ridiculous. So...what gives?

Sorry for the OT, lol.

 

[Feynman]

Have to say, I've never heard of anyone changing sides of the bed which they sleep on unless maybe a limb was broken so one would have better access to the bathroom or something...Most people, I think, would make adustments on their side of the bed for a shoulder injury.

In my experience, which side of the bed you sleep on is more of a personal claim which is established at the beginning of a relationship and never changes.

Scenario: OP and RS may have settled into their usual postions, and then later OP says "Would you mind if we switched sides, my shoulder hurts in this position tonight?" That would explain why Reeva's stuff was on her usual side, etc.

 

[wishIknewmore]

Thanks much.

So in essence, it could be safe to assume that Reeva literally didn't know what hit her when she was shot..if the gun fired rapidly, she could have already been dead before even realizing she had been shot??

I'm by no means an expert and won't know until we hear more from the ballistics report and autopsy. I know of only 1 person who has been shot and lived. He shot himself in the foot while cleaning his gun (stupid and careless) and he didn't scream. According to his friend, he looked down, saw his foot and passed out. When he woke up a minute or so later, he started screaming in pain. I would think that is would be possible for someone to go into shock and not scream if they were being hit by consecutive bullets before dying. However, if Reeva was shot, and then time went by before the next round of shots, she could have very well be screaming.

 

[MeeBee]

Scenario: OP and RS may have settled into their usual postions, and then later OP says "Would you mind if we switched sides, my shoulder hurts in this position tonight?" That would explain why Reeva's stuff was on her usual side, etc.

I don't see why you'd have to switch your side of the bed if you have a shoulder injury. It seems the simple solution would be to just sleep on the shoulder that's not bothering you or on your back. Why would you need to switch sides to do that? And personally, if my right shoulder was injured I would find it more comfortable to sleep on the right side of the bed so if I laid on my left side I'd be facing away from the middle and get more air. That's just me though.

 

[curiousjo]

I thought the doctor said that after the first round of shots, he continued to hear a woman screaming and a male voice yelling back. So, did the fatal head wound come later - during the 2nd round of shots? In that case it is premeditated.

Maybe the first round of shots included 1 warning shot fired into ceiling or outside on porch, then 3 shots at RS? Then 2nd round of shots was really the 1 fatal shot with 2 echoes? OR 1st set of shots were all air shots, then final set of shots were actual shots at RS since she continued to scream after first round of shots....

They can shoot the gun and see if it echoes at doctors home, and have the answer immediately. And they can whack the door with the bat and see what noise it makes.

I just don't think a cricket bat would sound like a gun? Still wonder if he hit her with that first, then she ran into bathroom before he took out the gun... Did OP have shoulder injury before that night? Or did he acquire it in a fight?

 

[Feynman]

quote excerpted:

I don't see why he had to change the side of the bed at all. All he needed to do was to roll over onto his other side. I find the whole changing sides story suspect. I hope Nel tackles him about that.

So then on Valnetine's Day you're facing away from your lover and she's staring at the back of your head? As to "All he needed to do", how about this: All they needed to do was switch sides.

 

[kittychi]

From OP's Bail Hearing Affidavit with the focus on possible SOUNDS/SCREAMS/YELLS HEARD BY NEIGHBOURS FROM OP SOUNDING LIKE A WOMAN AND THE SEQUENCE OF SHOTS AND CRICKET BAT SOUNDS:

On my way to the bathroom I

1. SCREAMED "GET OUT OF MY HOUSE"

2. SCREAMED "REEVA PHONE THE POLICE"

3. FIRED SHOTS AT THE TOILET DOOR

4. SHOUTED "REEVA, CALL THE POLICE"

5. RETURNED TO BATHROOM CALLING "REEVA"

6. SCREAMED "HELP" FROM BALCONY

7. TRIED TO KICK TOILET DOOR OPEN

8. BASHED TOILET DOOR WITH CRICKET BAT

9. PANEL/S BROKE OFF

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/02/19/world/africa/south-africa-pistorius-affadavit/

IMO OP would have been shouting words which would not have sounded like the bloodcurdling screams that MB and CJ or the other neighbours heard. I would have imagined, the neighbours could have heard the words if OP did shout them - not as screams.

The semantics are interesting here because IMO a scream does not consist of a word so in 1,2 and 6 it should read "shouted" not "screamed"

So I am now thinking that Roux already had this idea when he assisted OP in writing his Affidavit, that he would write "screams" in those three places rather than "shouted" and then claim at trial that OP screams like a woman.

I find it very interesting that the word, "scream" was used as I would not have used it in this context, would you?

.

Brilliant thinking, Estelle. I think that is a distinct possibility.

.