Having stepped away from the case for a week or so I tend to think we have all headed down the rabbit hole with Masipa
This was exemplified in last nights debate where lots of effort gets expended on matters which don't have much to do with guilt or innocence.
In the end, the bullet hole business proves precisely nothing.
The case is simple at its heart and Nel as an experienced prosecutor stuck close to the matters he must prove.
The key point is that with a correct interpretation of the law, the defence must show a lawful justification for the shooting.
Second the defence must show an evidential basis for mistake.
OP's testimony spectacularly failed on two points.
First no lawful justification was shown. This should have lead inexorably to a conviction for murder, except the judge screwed the law up.
Second, there was no reliable evidence of a mistake.
OP failed to show how Reeva got in the toilet without him knowing.
In fact his entire story was manufactured and deceptive.
And that is the key to the whole case.
There is in fact no reliable evidence that any mistake was made.
So in the ordinary course, a conviction for direct murder should have followed.
Nel took the shortest and safest route to the conviction, and on any rational basis, he did in fact make out the case beyond reasonable doubt.
This is simply because the evidential onus was on the defence to make out self defence and mistake.
To now criticise Nel over timeline, or for not engaging in speculation with witnesses, is improper in my view.
The problem is not timeline, but the way in which the judge simply ignores the evidential onus, and the weight of circumstantial evidence.
To put it country simple - the failure to make out self defence should have been instantly fatal to the defence.
But somehow it wasn't.
Masipa's rabbit hole is that somehow, even though OPs' version was pure nonsense, the prosecution must nevertheless definitively prove beyond reasonable doubt he knew Reeva was in there.
But how is such proof ever possible?
Somehow Masipa resists making obvious and natural inferences of the type courts usually make.
And bizarrely Masipa concludes that OPs version was reasonably possible - even though it clearly was a lie!
I don't see what hope Nel has against such poor quality analysis.