GUILTY Turkey - Sarai Sierra, 33, NY woman murdered, Istanbul, 21 Jan 2013 - #5

[alpmighty]

There is no singular cut off age for obligatory military service. It all depends on your education.

Ziya appears to be a high school graduate. Accordingly, upon graduation from high school, he would have the option to defer his military service by two years, during which he could prepare for central college exams. Failing to get himself into college, he would be unable to defer it any further and serve for 15 months.

But Ziya is well above 30, and he might have served for 18 months instead of 15. Service time for high school graduates was shortened from 18 to 15 during the last decade.

 

[alpmighty]

Part two.....the crazy theory

So I was thinking, what if Z wasnt the murderer, what if he wasnt even there when she died. What if someone hired him to lure her, and grab her?

But who would hire Z right? And why?

Ok bare with me....

Remember when we were discussing the sarai look a like theory, and the lady in the water with the red shirt.

I don't think we ever learned anything about the lady in the water, other then it was believed to be a suicide. Did we ever even learn her nationality? Was she Turkish? Maybe almighty or Yashim have seen mention of this.

Ok so what if that really was sarai on the video. But what if someone thought she was someone else, after all we debated, and some still have doubts if it was the real sarai, is it not possible that someone else could have confused her as well.

What if she was being followed because they thought she was this other woman. What if no one had a reason to kill sarai, but someone had a reason to kill this other woman. And what if they thought sarai was this other woman.

Ok please bare with me. ....

What if the woman in the water was a spy, or CIA, or some other form of intelligence, what if she was undercover drug intelligence, or something of that sort. Maybe the fact she was undercover is precisely why we have heard basically nothing about who she was or her death. I garantee if she didn't have some resemblance to sarai when they were looking for sarai, we wouldn't have heard about this woman's death at all. It would make sense to me that the death/murder of a "spy" would not be widely reported, and her information about her would not be made public.

What if somehow, for some reason this other woman and sarai were confused for one another. What if Z was hired to simply grab this woman, and take her to a cave....what if in this cave there were other men waiting for Z to come with this woman. What if the scratches and DNA under the nails were from him grabbing her, not from him killing her.

At one point early on, right in the first day or two of her being found, it was reported LE thought her body might have signs of torture. If this is so and she was taken to this cave, and was restrained, perhaps tortured for information, that she clearly didn't have because she was the wrong person, it might explain some of her many "defensive wounds".

Maybe as soon as Z brought her they payed him a small sum, and he left.

If they thought she was undercover or some kind of spy, it might explain why they took the electronics, it could also explain why they took off her pants, maybe they were looking for wires.

Obviously even after they realized perhaps they had they wrong person they couldn't leave her alive, she knew to much. So they told one of the guys to finish her off, make it look like a homeless attack, use a brick from the ground. It would also explain why they didn't give a rats *advertiser censored* about her jewelry. Maybe the person who had to finish her, was bloody, so wore her coat away from the scene to cover the blood spots.

This theory would also explain perhaps why her license was left. When they realized they had the wrong girl, they had remorse enough to at least let her be able to be identified, especially not knowing what stage of decomposition she would be in when her body was found.

This theory would also explain why Z fled, why he felt he had to get out of the country, he knew to much.

Furthermore say after Sarai's murder, they track down the real target, and convince her that they will either kill her, or she can jump off the bridge, or maybe they push her.
If this other woman was a spy, and LE and CIA has any inkling these two deaths could be related, could it not explain why the CIA is involved in tracking down Z? Maybe what they really want to know, is who recruited him to help out with Sarai's murder, because those are the same people involved in the death of the lady in the water.

Ok ok I know it seems far fetched.....but could this scenario explain some of the abnormalities and oddities in this case?

I'm sorry I know some people just want to think this was sarai doing what she loved, in the wrong place, at the wrong time, and was attacked randomly ..... But I don't buy it, I just don't. I really think there is more to this case, and we are missing something.

I really don't think Ziya is the murderer and if he involved I don't think he's the only one.

One last thought.....this crazy theory might also explain why Ziya made comments to his family thinking sarai was in the CIA, not because he was paranoid, but because he knew something about why they asked him to grab her, based on perhaps who these people who hired him were.

Another thing I forgot to mention....the theory about being grabbed, taken to others, tortured before being killed....could also explain the time of death being closer to 3-6 pm.....and why there is such a gap in her last sighting and death time.

Some level of professionalism could also explain, no witnesses....I would think in a homeless enclave word would get out pretty quick, that a professional element was taking care f business and to stay out if the way.

Also what homeless person would testify to this? None! They'd be in fear of their life....but if they say they saw Z there with her, after his DNA is confirmed under her nails, then the whole crime gets pinned on him, and the issue goes away, and the rest of the homeless community feels safer like these professionals are not going to threaten them, because as far as LE is concerned the case is closed....

There is no undercover narcotics asset belonging to any foreign country in Turkey. DEA and FBI has official liaison. If there's need for any type of undercover operation, DEA or FBI conducts it with Turkish National Police.

Woman with the red t-shirt is not a spy either. As a matter of fact, she is completely unrelated to Sarai Sierra case, unless we receive credible information suggesting otherwise.

Ziya is mentally troubled. His blood was found on SS. Perhaps it would be wiser not to overreach with extreme theories. Simple does it. Ziya's apprehension will reveal more.

 

[ThinkHard]

And you couldn't remember the latest age for the military service? Couldn't remember?

ThinkHard, why on earth did you even need to learn that in the first place?

You are really scaring me.

Sometimes you sound like the Temperance "Bones" character that Emily Deschanel plays in Bones.

Unless you're some FBI agent or something, I find it odd that you know so much. Odder than all the odd things in this case.

And may be you are.

Perhaps your real name is something like Temperance Winkhard.

Agent Winkhard from FBI's Middle East Division.

That makes sense.

Seeing that we were getting off track, you nudged us in the right direction with your latest theory.

"Ok guys, I have an admittedly crazy theory...."

Really? Perhaps that's not even your theory. You were just copying and pasting it from the most recent report sitting in front of you.

And splitting it into two separate posts just to make us think that you were actually typing it was a nice touch!

But we are smart, Agent Winkhard.

Just way too smart for FBI.

Haha!

I'm afraid the answer to that is far more innocent.

I lived with a Turkish family, I took care of their children. The father was a doctor, and he had to live outside Istanbul to complete his mandatory state doctor services, at a state hospital picked by the government, in order for them to allow doctors to have their license to practice privately. So I learned random stuff about Turkey, including that your doctor service requirement is completely separate from your military requirement. And depending on circumstances the military requirement can involve a whole array of different roles, but that it is required of all men, it can be postponed, but within reason there are rules about when it has to be complete by.

 

[ThinkHard]

There is no singular cut off age for obligatory military service. It all depends on your education.

Ziya appears to be a high school graduate. Accordingly, upon graduation from high school, he would have the option to defer his military service by two years, during which he could prepare for central college exams. Failing to get himself into college, he would be unable to defer it any further and serve for 15 months.

But Ziya is well above 30, and he might have served for 18 months instead of 15. Service time for high school graduates was shortened from 18 to 15 during the last decade.

He is not a high school graduate. As far as we know according to family he has only been to school for three days, he was enrolled at the age of 10, went for 3 days, then left and started a life on the streets.

 

[alpmighty]

He is not a high school graduate. As far as we know according to family he has only been to school for three days, he was enrolled at the age of 10, went for 3 days, then left and started a life on the streets.

As far as service obligation deferral is concerned, high school graduates and below are handled the same way I mentioned.

After 18, you can only defer it for two years. By that time, if you're not in college, it's time to do your service for 15 months.

 

[ThinkHard]

There is no undercover narcotics asset belonging to any foreign country in Turkey. DEA and FBI has official liaison. If there's need for any type of undercover operation, DEA or FBI conducts it with Turkish National Police.

Woman with the red t-shirt is not a spy either. As a matter of fact, she is completely unrelated to Sarai Sierra case, unless we receive credible information suggesting otherwise.

Ziya is mentally troubled. His blood was found on SS. Perhaps it would be wiser not to overreach with extreme theories. Simple does it. Ziya's apprehension will reveal more.

With all do respect we have no more proof that Ziya was mentally unstable then we do that the woman in the water is not related to this case.

There is no proof of ziyas frame of mind, and to say you know is just as much of an assumption, as any other theory related to this case.

It's just from your perspective that fits what makes sense to you better. You are simply picking and choosing pieces of information that assert your belief.

From my perspective, this crime does not have the markings of a mentally unstable individual.

And I think it is important to look at all the possibilities in regards to this case, rather then rely of an assumption of a mental illness to perhaps over simplify this case.

Lastly....I was only using narcotics as a possible (example) reason for being undercover and not THE reason. And I'm sure whatever undercover operations that may go on in any one country, is not knowledge that the public, you, or even regular LE would be privy too. That would after all defeat the purpose of being discrete after all.

 

[ThinkHard]

As far as service obligation deferral is concerned, high school graduates and below are handled the same way I mentioned.

After 18, you can only defer it for two years. By that time, if you're not in college, it's time to do your service for 15 months.

That's fine, I wasnt disputing that, I was simply pointing out that the logical age Ziya would have been completing military service, is the same age scitzophrenia would have become apparent, and I doubted such extreme psychosis would have been overlooked during his military service. So it was just another reason for doubting Z as be scitzophrenic.

 

[Yashim]

There is no singular cut off age for obligatory military service. It all depends on your education....

There is, Alpmighty.

We should be careful when answering these questions about Turkey because sometime I get this weird feeling that there are members among us who are actually reading other members' posts.

They won't let a 85-year old guy in the army.

40 is the last age for training, 45 is for getting drafted.

 

[delal]

Today I was actually planning to walk along Kennedy and try to put myself in the shoes of Sarai and imagine what may have compelled her to cross the road or even climb up. Not that morbid, I had a day off and nothing to do and figured that area is probably safer than it ever has been in the wake of a murder.

My plan didn't work out as I ended up meeting friends and took a ferry. The ferry has a great view of the walls and Kennedy. They actually look pretty good. I could see the arches and the gaps in the wall and the statues. At night there are little lights set among the walls. Maybe there is rubbish up at the top, but on the street side of the walls, they actually look pretty good. They don't appear especially scary.

 

[ozma]

So, you mean they asked Z to bring SS to them by force. That's more likely.

So, I am guessing that Z wasn't announced as the major suspect when he was in Karabük. If he was, that'll make everyone who talked to him some sort of accomplice.

And he still tells his friends about the murder and that he might be pinned for it.

Yes... your post #498 (thread #4), the first (!) post here about a man referred to as "Z" being announced as the prime suspect, links to an article in the Turkish media dated Feb. 13, so the news must have been made public at that point.

Reports put Ziya in Karabük around Feb. 5-8. A coffee shop owner says the police came around and showed him a photo of the suspect "a week later" (assumedly an approximate memory).
http://m.haberturk.com/icerik.aspx?CID=1&ID=822183

 

[SandyP]

Part two.....the crazy theory

So I was thinking, what if Z wasnt the murderer, what if he wasnt even there when she died. What if someone hired him to lure her, and grab her?

But who would hire Z right? And why?

Ok bare with me....

Remember when we were discussing the sarai look a like theory, and the lady in the water with the red shirt.

I don't think we ever learned anything about the lady in the water, other then it was believed to be a suicide. Did we ever even learn her nationality? Was she Turkish? Maybe almighty or Yashim have seen mention of this.

Ok so what if that really was sarai on the video. But what if someone thought she was someone else, after all we debated, and some still have doubts if it was the real sarai, is it not possible that someone else could have confused her as well.

What if she was being followed because they thought she was this other woman. What if no one had a reason to kill sarai, but someone had a reason to kill this other woman. And what if they thought sarai was this other woman.

Ok please bare with me. ....

What if the woman in the water was a spy, or CIA, or some other form of intelligence, what if she was undercover drug intelligence, or something of that sort. Maybe the fact she was undercover is precisely why we have heard basically nothing about who she was or her death. I garantee if she didn't have some resemblance to sarai when they were looking for sarai, we wouldn't have heard about this woman's death at all. It would make sense to me that the death/murder of a "spy" would not be widely reported, and her information about her would not be made public.

What if somehow, for some reason this other woman and sarai were confused for one another. What if Z was hired to simply grab this woman, and take her to a cave....what if in this cave there were other men waiting for Z to come with this woman. What if the scratches and DNA under the nails were from him grabbing her, not from him killing her.

At one point early on, right in the first day or two of her being found, it was reported LE thought her body might have signs of torture. If this is so and she was taken to this cave, and was restrained, perhaps tortured for information, that she clearly didn't have because she was the wrong person, it might explain some of her many "defensive wounds".

Maybe as soon as Z brought her they payed him a small sum, and he left.

If they thought she was undercover or some kind of spy, it might explain why they took the electronics, it could also explain why they took off her pants, maybe they were looking for wires.

Obviously even after they realized perhaps they had they wrong person they couldn't leave her alive, she knew to much. So they told one of the guys to finish her off, make it look like a homeless attack, use a brick from the ground. It would also explain why they didn't give a rats *advertiser censored* about her jewelry. Maybe the person who had to finish her, was bloody, so wore her coat away from the scene to cover the blood spots.

This theory would also explain perhaps why her license was left. When they realized they had the wrong girl, they had remorse enough to at least let her be able to be identified, especially not knowing what stage of decomposition she would be in when her body was found.

This theory would also explain why Z fled, why he felt he had to get out of the country, he knew to much.

Furthermore say after Sarai's murder, they track down the real target, and convince her that they will either kill her, or she can jump off the bridge, or maybe they push her.
If this other woman was a spy, and LE and CIA has any inkling these two deaths could be related, could it not explain why the CIA is involved in tracking down Z? Maybe what they really want to know, is who recruited him to help out with Sarai's murder, because those are the same people involved in the death of the lady in the water.

Ok ok I know it seems far fetched.....but could this scenario explain some of the abnormalities and oddities in this case?

I'm sorry I know some people just want to think this was sarai doing what she loved, in the wrong place, at the wrong time, and was attacked randomly ..... But I don't buy it, I just don't. I really think there is more to this case, and we are missing something.

I really don't think Ziya is the murderer and if he involved I don't think he's the only one.

One last thought.....this crazy theory might also explain why Ziya made comments to his family thinking sarai was in the CIA, not because he was paranoid, but because he knew something about why they asked him to grab her, based on perhaps who these people who hired him were.

Another thing I forgot to mention....the theory about being grabbed, taken to others, tortured before being killed....could also explain the time of death being closer to 3-6 pm.....and why there is such a gap in her last sighting and death time.

Some level of professionalism could also explain, no witnesses....I would think in a homeless enclave word would get out pretty quick, that a professional element was taking care f business and to stay out if the way.

Also what homeless person would testify to this? None! They'd be in fear of their life....but if they say they saw Z there with her, after his DNA is confirmed under her nails, then the whole crime gets pinned on him, and the issue goes away, and the rest of the homeless community feels safer like these professionals are not going to threaten them, because as far as LE is concerned the case is closed....

And the winner of "Best Original Screenplay" goes to ThinkHard.

Seriously, with all the wacky things about this case, this theory is not that much more far-Fetched than lots of others that have been discussed at length here.

 

[pbj]

Maybe SS had wanted to go to the walls, but had heard they were dangerous. If we are to believe that T. texted her and said that he would join her, she thought she could go. She thought she'd stay on the other side of the roaduntil he got there, but didn't.

Do agree T. did not seem that into SS. I think she spent a lot of time wandering the tourist area alone while in Istanbul, but had come searching adventure, picture- taking comraderie with her fellow photographers...and perhaps romance.

If we're to believe the story that T. never texted her back, and just got SS's phone turned off, what time was that? I don't think she turned it off but rather her killer.

I believe with all the evidence it is Z (especially his dna underneath her fingernails and her blood on his shirt,), if true we have our man.

Random other thoughts, did she hear a train and was lured tio the area by that?. Did she have lunch and somone suggested going there?

 

[SANDOVAL]

There is no undercover narcotics asset belonging to any foreign country in Turkey. DEA and FBI has official liaison. If there's need for any type of undercover operation, DEA or FBI conducts it with Turkish National Police.

Woman with the red t-shirt is not a spy either. As a matter of fact, she is completely unrelated to Sarai Sierra case, unless we receive credible information suggesting otherwise.

Ziya is mentally troubled. His blood was found on SS. Perhaps it would be wiser not to overreach with extreme theories. Simple does it. Ziya's apprehension will reveal more.

Hmmmm, if she WAS a spy, you would have to say she was not anyway....correct??

 

[ozma]

He is not a high school graduate. As far as we know according to family he has only been to school for three days, he was enrolled at the age of 10, went for 3 days, then left and started a life on the streets.

I have been wondering, if his family's account of his educational history is true, whether or not Ziya may have been functionally illiterate. Relating this to the discussion of his military service, is there any kind of literacy training given to conscripts in need of it?

 

[ThinkHard]

Maybe SS had wanted to go to the walls, but had heard they were dangerous. If we are to believe that T. texted her and said that he would join her, she thought she could go. She thought she'd stay on the other side of the roaduntil he got there, but didn't.

Do agree T. did not seem that into SS. I think she spent a lot of time wandering the tourist area alone while in Istanbul, but had come searching adventure, picture- taking comraderie with her fellow photographers...and perhaps romance.

If we're to believe the story that T. never texted her back, and just got SS's phone turned off, what time was that? I don't think she turned it off but rather her killer.

I believe with all the evidence it is Z (especially his dna underneath her fingernails and her blood on his shirt,), if true we have our man.

Random other thoughts, did she hear a train and was lured tio the area by that?. Did she have lunch and somone suggested going there?

The evidence you are siting, only confirms he was near her, and he knows something, it does not PROVE he killed her.

 

[zarra30]

I'm going to make a sweeping generalization here and say that most New York females aren't going to think "Ah, what a sweet nice homeless group of guys waving to me from a desolate cave area on an isolated highway. I think I'll cross over and have a chat with them." Unless a 5'2" slender 110 mother whose husband said "She knows how to take care of herself" simply threw caution and instinct to the wind that day.

I agree with other posters that there are still too many holes, blackouts and loose ends in the case to blame it all on an encounter with shady Z at or near his cave or simply risky behavior on Sarai’s part.
delal pointed out that had she progressed further she might have come to Kumkapi and that it wasn’t an uncommon walk.

On her instagram pic she remarked that she’d been to several restaurants, and implied she was having a good time. That tells me she made some friends. Barely any pictures uploaded makes me think she either didn't have a chance to upload them or maybe stopped taking pictures and just went about with friends, and had no interest in taking pics of that cave area.
We earlier focused on T because he put himself there with bathroom talk and with the texts to and from him on the 21st and was the only name released and it’s not unusual for LE to look at the last person to be associated with a victim.
But on that 95% that LE insist they are withholding may very well be texts from other IGers, or new acquaintances, male or female, Turkish or not. Some reports said she contacted a hostel. Maybe she had met someone from there or was told by someone that it was a good place to go. Maybe she stopped there and someone followed her. No one knows.

A woman they believe to be her is last sighted on a video sometime around 1:30, but LE say her death could have occurred anywhere from 3 to 6, but don’t say how or why they arrived at the time frame.

A lot can happen in 3 or 4 hours. They probably know exactly, or have a good idea where the ‘single lady in red’ who may have stuck out in a city where groups and couples or single men are more common, walked or was last seen, or where Z went or was last seen and they prefer to conceal it until they catch up with him.

Cases evolve, new POI come about, it’s sometimes simple but not always. Dangerous people can appear to be nice, they can seem like good citizens and neighbors or other tourists. I have no idea if DNA can be planted or mistaken but I’m guessing not. Way too risky with all those agencies looking on. CIA involvement seems wild to me, the stuff of movies, but maybe not to schizophrenics or regular people in other countries, or so I'll respect their opinions.

 

[delal]

Relating this to the discussion of his military service, is there any kind of literacy training given to conscripts in need of it?

Totally depends on where they are sent. My ex boyfriend was assigned to help illiterate soldiers learn to read and write while he was doing his military service.

 

[ThinkHard]

I have been wondering, if his family's account of his educational history is true, whether or not Ziya may have been functionally illiterate. Relating this to the discussion of his military service, is there any kind of literacy training given to conscripts in need of it?

That I don't know.

 

[zarra30]

Part two.....the crazy theory

So I was thinking, what if Z wasnt the murderer, what if he wasnt even there when she died. What if someone hired him to lure her, and grab her?

But who would hire Z right? And why?

Ok bare with me....

Remember when we were discussing the sarai look a like theory, and the lady in the water with the red shirt.

I don't think we ever learned anything about the lady in the water, other then it was believed to be a suicide. Did we ever even learn her nationality? Was she Turkish? Maybe almighty or Yashim have seen mention of this....

..

I don't think your theories are crazy. Information reported in the press has been proven to be inaccurate and a bit crazy on enough occasions.

Unsourced innuendos, information disconnect. Media reports that T had bathroom fun, whoops, he meant sipping tea. Girl in red shirt jeans walking on video, girl in red shirt jeans floating in the sea a few days after Sarai's Ipad or phone turned on. A missing IPad that might have contained a day to day blog of where she went and who she met. Texts that give no specific time or location to meet. Still no exact day stated for her checking out and catching the plane. Mean looking Z mistaken for innocent man in shorts running near a fire. Z saying cops told him to run. Z has her coat, doesn't have her coat. Lady reports white car on dark night and hand of body hanging out.
What's real and what's delusional or false? I haven't a clue. It's very confusing, information rarely confirmed and no one seems to know what to believe anymore.
And don't forget poor LL in a written report shown by Channel 7 (but no signature shown on the folded paper) gives a timeline for her stay as his tenant from the 7 to the 27. I think it was Yashim who pointed out that it didn't even seem like a Turkish person wrote it. Then contradictory newspapers report that LL said SS paid online in advance for 13 days (which matches her total time there at disappearance), but her family is quoted as saying she changed the timeline from arriving on the 7th and staying till the 25th to shortening it by 3 days after she arrived. So where does the date of the 27th on that document even come in? Does the 13 day advance make sense?
SS’s sister said LL told her he last saw her around dinner time on the 20th, so unless someone else definitely saw her leave on the 21st, she may not have even come home. At some point I’m sure LL would wonder about the key, if she had one, and her stuff, had she skipped out, especially if he had another tenant coming in.

None of this may be relevant, but my point is, why all the mistakes, especially if the suspect is Z and all the others are nice ordinary people caught in a web, as I assume they are. Hopefully when they capture Z some reporter in Istanbul will simply write an accurate article and clear all the discrepancies up. They owe it to those people and the Sierra family.

Other posters and you have pointed out that it's not always the suspicious loony guy acting alone, so such ideas are valid until proven wrong. It very well might be Z alone in this particular case, because of the DNA, but until they release some more of that 95% that they claim to have, like you and some other posters, I’m on the fence as to what his exact motive or association really was.

Admittedly, I don’t understand the ‘Laz’ references as I am ignorant when it comes to politics outside my country, but I watched the long video about the scrap paper collectors that some poster linked to earlier and I think some of the collectors came from other regions and didn’t feel so welcome.
Maybe non English speaking killer Z passed by and overheard her talking to someone in front of a restaurant. When she said "See, I ate here and I'm gonna kill the guy who recomended it". and he only heard 'CIA here' and 'kill'. Yeah, I'm joking.

Maybe Z was mentally unstable or high on crack or thinner and flipped out or maybe he felt angry or pushed out by authorities or the guy in the next cave and he just wanted to harm the tourist injury or cause the place to be evacuated by killing an easy mark, a tourist and planting her there. After all, the Turkish posters keep saying it is highly unusual, almost incredible, that such a thing would happen in Istanbul.

Someone please ring up the LE and tell them that we need at least 5 more percent to keep going. LOL

 

[Blackydress]

But can we really apprehend how comprehensive SS research of Istanbul was from that simple statement?

Not everything is on the Internet.

Assuming SS was well knowledgeable about Istanbul would simply lead us wrong.

No I know I was joking about the friend`s statement by quoting her `reaaally searched` SS was obviously not much informed about Istanbul starting with the place she chose to stay.