GUILTY Turkey - Sarai Sierra, 33, NY woman murdered, Istanbul, 21 Jan 2013 - #5

[zarra30]

Today I was actually planning to walk along Kennedy and try to put myself in the shoes of Sarai and imagine what may have compelled her to cross the road or even climb up. Not that morbid, I had a day off and nothing to do and figured that area is probably safer than it ever has been in the wake of a murder.

My plan didn't work out as I ended up meeting friends and took a ferry. The ferry has a great view of the walls and Kennedy. They actually look pretty good. I could see the arches and the gaps in the wall and the statues. At night there are little lights set among the walls. Maybe there is rubbish up at the top, but on the street side of the walls, they actually look pretty good. They don't appear especially scary.

I'm glad you thought to do it and share it.

So many (mostly) Americans have wondered and commented under all the press articles "Why Istanbul, why that exotic/strange/dangerous place, why that bad neighborhood/that highway/that.......why alone? I count myself among the uninformed when I first heard about the case.

Well, I came across this interesting and inspiring blog written by an American independent female traveler only a few months before SS's journey and if anyone takes the time to read her entries, it might offer a perspective on why SS or any other person was drawn to the city as well as the sorts of places a tourist might travel, sights & impressions they might have. It has nothing to do with the case, and please don't copy and paste anything from the page or give her name here.
Hope I'm giving the proper link:

http://aturkishsummer.blogspot.com/...-max=2013-01-01T00:00:00-08:00&max-results=50

 

[StCirq]

There was another woman's body recovered from the same spot on 21 February

Really? Who? What? Details, please!

 

[monkey222]

I find it incredible that Z could be "hiding" in Syria right now. His street smarts would certainly be his assest but w language difference, gee, wouldn't his ability to blend be a challenge??

 

[alpmighty]

"where they are sent"?

figuratively speaking yes.

allocation of conscripts to units are completely random. any illiterate private can end up anywhere. and the commanding officer of any platoon can ask an officer (NCO) to teach the illiterate privates how to read and write.

it's not always a formal arrangement, if at all.

happens anywhere and everywhere.

It is actually a formal arrangement. I come from a military family. Any illiteracy issue with long term conscripts are handled within the military.

There are even rural/eastern conscripts who come fresh off their villages and they have never used toilet paper in their lives!

Short term conscripts (college grads) or professional NCOs deal with them, educate them.

 

[alpmighty]

And since I mentioned college grad terms of obligatory military service, I felt it necessary to inform more about that: College grads have the option to either serve for six months as enlisted (with the rank of Sergeant) or they can choose to serve for twelve months as an officer. (with the rank of 3rd lieutenant, promoted to 2nd lieutenant during their last 1-2 months)

 

[alpmighty]

I find it incredible that Z could be "hiding" in Syria right now. His street smarts would certainly be his assest but w language difference, gee, wouldn't his ability to blend be a challenge??

I already wrote here before, according to Ziya's brother, he had friends from his service in military that are from Hatay. Those friends would be knowledgeable about Arabic and where to go in Syria.

Ethnically, Hatay is largely Arabic. While it was under Ottoman rule during Imperial times just as the rest of Middle East, with the foundation of the Republic, it was given up to France. Only in late 1930s, Republic has seen to it that Hatay province choose to secede from newly found Syria and accede to Turkey.

Some of the sleuethers here must surely seen Indiana Jones: The Last Crusade. Remember there was a weird little independent country who was ruled by a guy wearing a Fez? That is Hatay, post secession from Syria and before accession into Turkey.

 

[alpmighty]

Hmmmm, if she WAS a spy, you would have to say she was not anyway....correct??

If I was an Intel guy myself, it would all depend on circumstances. Formal authorization and the condition of Aston Martin DB9 I'd drive regularly come to my mind. And of course, a good day of gambling in my tuxedo, resulting in loss of money also would effect my temper and my decision to disclose any such information.

All joking aside, even if CIA wanted to conduct an op in Istanbul without the knowledge of Turkish Intelligence, it would be extremely unwise to use SS as an asset.

She has a very extensive online presence. She doesn't know the local language. She doesn't have any prior experience abroad. Hardly asset material.

Turkey is not Cold War era Soviet Union. Foreigners arriving are not scrutinized in such way. Any cover story necessitating an online presence like SS had would be completely unnecessary. A more subtle cover like a travelling businessman, or a tourist without an extensive online presence would work.

Add to that, there is nothing of Intelligence value in the areas SS has been.

SS was not a CIA asset. Clandestine service does not use amateurs for abroad undercover assignments.

Since persistence on SS being an Intel asset is still strong, I will add that there were only two CIA assets uncovered in Turkish history that were operating without Turkish Intelligence authorization and knowledge. Both were high ranking MIT officers, passing on high-level intelligence to CIA. The reason is quite simple, Turkey is already a strong US ally, which historically was a frontline NATO state bordering Soviet Union directly. CIA does not need to conduct undercover intel ops for low-level information.

Signals intelligence, which falls under US military and NSA is a different story. US actively conducts SIGINT operations even against it's most trusted allies. However, since HUMINT assets and work are largely irrelevant to that area, there is no need for consideration.

 

[alpmighty]

I did a Google search using some keywords and found this:
http://www.sabah.com.tr/Yasam/2013/02/21/denizden-kadin-cesedi-cikti

I'm not sure if it's the one english was referring to or not, but the date of the story and the age of the victim are the same. The location -- Beyoğlu Sütlüce -- seems different, but I don't really know where it is. We can check it on a map. There is nothing about a red shirt or any other detailed description. It says the body was in the water for about 48 hours. At the end of the article it notes a man's body found at yet another location the same day, I think.

Again I just looked at this fast and my Turkish is far from perfect. I'll take another look later and get back if I have any corrections or find additional relevant info.

Your translation is accurate. Only thing you've missed is the male body was identified as there was ID on him and LE considers it a suicide case.

 

[alpmighty]

They would hire him, presumably because even at the risk of him talking, it is far less likely anyone would believe him.

And if they had to kill him, its far less likely anyone would miss him, or spend time looking for him.

Not the government. For all other considerations though, Ziya is expendable.

 

[alpmighty]

I'm just not seeing the motivation for random crime.

You are not seeing a motivation for a random crime, assuming that perp would be equally sane and stable just like you. And with that assumption, I wouldn't see any motivation either. But the assumption is simply wrong.

 

[alpmighty]

Yes, interesting, i had wondered this myself, about 'why CIA'?

I wrote all the reasons why SS can't be a CIA asset.

But let's for a second say, she was.

If she ended up getting murdered for any reason, it would not make news. Not in the United States, not in Turkey. There is a wall of stars in Langley for those who are fallen during CIA service, anonymously commemorating their sacrifices for a reason.

 

[alpmighty]

I doubt any secret agent in Syria will risk blowing his cover just to locate a murder suspect.

I can tell you with confidence that any US or Turkish assets currently in Syria are deep cover and act under full plausible deniability. They are darker than black. United States does not want to appear as to be meddling in Syrian Uprisings. But they are meddling in, as other countries in the region do, including Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE etc.

CIA presence in Syria almost surely consists of Special Activities Division operators, which organize, arm and train the rebels if not taking direct action against pro-Assad forces themselves, perhaps some Army or Navy special forces, but I highly doubt it as it would be hard for military operators to maintain deniability and most USSOCOM units are leaned towards direct action type operations, and some National Clandestine Service case officers which must have been show runners or information gatherers. As there isn't US diplomatic presence currently in Syria, there wouldn't be any space for official cover agents. So you can't really have an agent posing as Attache of Commerce with diplomatic immunity. As such, any asset with boots on the ground would be NOC, or non official cover. They would appear as locals, ethnically looking, or perhaps being Arabic or any other minority that is present in Syria and they would speak languages which are spoken in Syria as a native.

Remember the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan? Any US boots on the ground in there for the time belonged to CIA's SAD. They were arming, training and aiding Mujahideen against the Soviet forces. The whole show was ran by the relevant CIA task force, by case officers. Look up Gust Avrakotos. Those Stinger MANPADS (anti aircraft missiles) didn't just walk into Afghanistan by themselves, and by sheer power of miracle ended up shooting down Soviet helicopters. If you also have noticed, Syrian anti-Assad rebels are utilizing Stingers and other similar sophisticated MANPADS type weaponry currently against Assad controlled air force. Who supplied those, besides the ones that were sacked from Assad's bases by rebels? Who trains the rebels for their usage? That would be, as I wrote before, ninjas from SAD and similar other outfits of the US allies.

Any such asset wouldn't need to blow their covers to snoop around for Ziya. They already have their networks inside, consisting of anti-Assad forces. All the ongoing chaos is an added benefit for maintaining cover.

 

[alpmighty]

With all do respect we have no more proof that Ziya was mentally unstable then we do that the woman in the water is not related to this case.

Yes we do.

Americans here before correctly analyzed that from Ziya family interviews, his relations with his brother are stained and only with his mother he has a healthy relationship.

Both Ziya's mother and brother already stated he is unstable and naive.

Add to that, we know that his brother said Ziya previously held a regular job and was living in an apartment in Istanbul, rented by him for Ziya.

Ziya gave them all up to live the life of a derelict, scavenging and living in the streets. He isn't homeless because he had no other options, he is homeless by choice.

Does that appear like a sane guy to anybody here?

A common mistake I've observed here is assuming Ziya is normal and stable like most of the sleuthers here are.

It would be prohibitively hard for most to think like Ziya, getting into his shoes. Gazing into abyss is difficult, if not impossible.

 

[alpmighty]

Too common an occurence to be worth more than a line in a newspaper. There was another woman's body recovered from the same spot on 21 February. All that is known about her is aged 30-35. Likely, will never be identified.

Quite the opposite, will be most likely identified if not already have been identified. Have you checked Turkish National Police's unidentified bodies page? That body hasn't appeared there. And most of the other bodies shown in the page are in advanced stages of decomposition to establish any identity, or they belong to drifters and homeless which makes it hard to establish identity without a DNA match. That poor woman with the red shirt was fished out after approximately 48 hours. Not long enough for severe decomposition, considering the water temperature.

Herat would be able to tell more about that.

 

[alpmighty]

when Z's DNA was found as a match to SS, they would have also seen it matched other cold cases.

Correct. And we haven't heard anything besides Ziya's DNA match to a blood stain on SS' shirt.

 

[alpmighty]

Alp or Delal,
I keep thinking she was FOUND in that cave area, but that doesn't necessarily mean she was wandering around in said cave area, in my opinion.

Do you think she could have been lost or on her way to a train or bus or ferry near the area and got surprised by Z or someone else? Would those areas be crowded? I know some train/bus/subway stops in NYC are in isolated places.

It was reported at one time that she was walking briskly. She seemed to be dressed well. Perhaps she was going to a place to meet others, or to buy souvenirs, or to eat or take some pics though as others have said, she took (or uploaded) so few.
It's just me, but I cannot see her going into a creepy area that others mentioned were warned against. This was her last day. Wouldn't one of her friends, by then, have warned her about the walls and dangerous places? Especially as she was a tourist and a woman?

Sigh...I guess anything and everything is possible

That would be a tough guess to make. She had a smartphone and an iPad. If they did have network connections, she would just resort to checking Maps on the said devices to get accurate location information, providing that she would fail to ask passers by due to language barrier.

But there's also her strong motivation on photography, and her communication with Taylan, indicating she had an interest in photographing the walls.

 

[alpmighty]

This case is so confusing. Even the reporters following it are confused. All news is either wrong, exaggerated or just made up. If Z. called his brother on the 9th and told him he would pass to Syria, maybe he is gone already considering the time which passed.

Probable. He has a connection to Hatay from his military service.

 

[alpmighty]

Hello, first-time visitor to Istanbul last January again here. I can say from my experience that I did more than a bit of research before I went and can't remember any guide book or website that warned me to stay away from the walls. Which I find understandable, more people get in trouble in the notorious "Pavyon" scam bar areas (which they did warn me about).

Then, when you've been there for a week, there is a misleading sense of knowing the scene that you can get. You walk through some really run-down side streets in Tarlabasi or Sirkeci and still find the people friendly and caring enough even there (one observer on twitter, explaining the low crime rate, said 'the poor still own their streets, more than in other cities').

I was careful not to take great risks during my trip this January, and still found myself just by chance wandering around on Kennedy Drive like Sarai, almost on the same day. I don't want to disturb you but I have to say again: Playing up Sarai's percieved irresponsibility doesn't make the fact go away that on a really bad day it could have been any of us. In any one of a lot of places.

That said, I'll continue to read her actions for traits and attitudes that might have made her prone to misread any signs of threat. I believe there's still more to learn here for other travellers.

I completely agree.

 

[alpmighty]

We just don't know that if Z knew he was the No.1 suspect when he first arrived at his hometown.

Or do we?

SS initial disappearance made major headlines. Ziya would definitely know the heat was increasing.

 

[alpmighty]

Then it would be a perfect place for organized criminals to plan to torture and murder a potential spy!

Not really! There would be more convenient locations for those, being off the charts in remote areas and such.