GUILTY Turkey - Sarai Sierra, 33, NY woman murdered, Istanbul, 21 Jan 2013 - #5

[Herat]

forensic entomology would help yield many answers for determining time of death.

The life cycle and behavior of most insects is well-known and predictable.

These entomologists get their clues from everything those insects do; from reproduction, age, digestion, and death.

Since her body was found outdoors, they most likely used the environment. She was allegedly dragged from the spot where she was killed, so they have probably examined blood and how long insects had interacted with it and her body.

The entomological data is not that specific that it can designate time of death between 15:00 and 18:00 hours on a specific date. It can give some general information. The season and weather makes a huge difference in being able to find and interpret such data.

Don't believe everything you see on CSI and other crime dramas.

The time of death in this case was not derived from entomological data.

 

[SANDOVAL]

The entomological data is not that specific that it can designate time of death between 15:00 and 18:00 hours on a specific date. It can give some general information. The season and weather makes a huge difference in being able to find and interpret such data.

Don't believe everything you see on CSI and other crime dramas.

The time of death in this case was not derived from entomological data.

OK, so from what was it derived (or guessed)?

 

[ThinkHard]

Ok guys, I have an admittedly crazy theory. But just follow along for a minute....

Part 1: Random attack

For starters I was considering scenarios that would have to be motive for a random attack, and concluded for a random attack, it has to fall in some way into one of these categories.

1. Robbery
2. Rape
3. Psychotic break by disease or drugs

Looking at the robbery angle, from the crime scene I just don't see it. Why would certain things be left and why would certain things be taken? Why would her pants be off? In an act of robbery why wouldn't they just knock her out and take her stuff, and leave the body? If robbery was the only reason for this crime they could have gotten away with it much cleaner and wouldn't have gone through the effort to conceal the body. Robbers typically do not like to also be murderers, so if sarai put up such a fight over her stuff, I see a robber just taking off.

As far as rape, though her pants were removed, we haven't heard any other evidence of a possible rape. I'm not 100% positive but I am pretty sure the other girls raped at that spot were in the evening, but if someone else remembers better please correct me. I just feel if someone wanted to rape a 5'2 110lb woman, and they had raped before , they would have succeeded.

As for the psychotic break, it would definetly explain the disorganization but I don't think it would explain going through such an effort to cover it up. Especially making sure her earrings, and anything else that was dropped, including her license were with her. And I don't believe for a single second that someone killed her, and then someone else came across the body and took her stuff, and then someone else hid her. To me at least the idea that people would come across a dead foreign woman's body, and rob or move it, is ... Well I dunno I just don't see that at all.

Ok so now lets look at Z. What do we actually know about Z? We know he chose to live on the streets, we can assume this was do to a mental disorder but it does not mean this is necessarily so. You see though schizophrenia accounts is much higher, percentage wise in homeless populations, then in non homeless population it does not mean all homeless people have schizophrenia.

Based on some of the things we have learned about Z's home life, I'd be more inclined to believe that any mental issues Z had in life, were more mental disorders learned from compensating or dealing with the life he had, opposed to organic and biologically based mental disorders. We learned his father passed away when he was an infant, that his stepfather was harsh to him, that he didn't start school till he was 10, and only lasted 3 days before taking to the streets.

For a child to not start school till 10, and then be out in a classroom, either with children significantly younger, or children his own age but more educated, either one would have been emotionally stressful, extremely stressful, a huge blow to his self esteem. I'm sure he was laughed at for not knowing things, for possibly being illiterate. It doesn't surprise me at all that 3 days of school like that, and in all likelyhood an unhealthy relationship with his stepfather, would cause a 10 year old boy to flee to the streets. He probably felt like he had more street smarts, then school /society smarts....he wasnt being made fun of on the streets, he had found a place where he fit in. This to me seems more like an accurate picture of why Z took to the street over a biologically based psychosis of any kind. He was tough, he was hardened, he had a shell, he learned not to trust anyone but himself, all aspects that lead to compensations that can be classified as various types of personality disorders. But I don't see schizophrenia. Another small reason I don't think this, is because he was in the Turkish military for a while (which is I believe a 2 years requirement) for ALL males in Turkey, which I believe has to be fulfilled by the age of 33 (?). (Almighty or Yashim might be able to confirm the required time to serve and by what age better then I can). Anyway schizophrenia has a typical age of onset around 18-23, or early adult years. I just find it difficult to believe that a completely schizophrenic individual would be able to fulfill this commitment. Also some of the things we have heard about an hr long chat in the coffee shop in karabuck, and normal behavior on the bus, just don't paint the picture for me of someone with a severe psychosis.

Finally I was thinking what actual evidence is there really of Z at the crime scene? From what we have heard that his DNA was found under her finger nails. To me all this really tells us (assuming of course that it wasnt planted) is that Z had contact with Sarai, contact that she didn't want. But to me it doesn't really tell us he was the murderer. What if he was just the one who was restraining her, the only one close enough to her hands to reach to scratch. It really doesn't tell us he killed her. It just tells us he had contact with her.

Ok.....crazy theory coming up in part two...

 

[Fantazteko]

The entomological data is not that specific that it can designate time of death between 15:00 and 18:00 hours on a specific date. It can give some general information. The season and weather makes a huge difference in being able to find and interpret such data.

Don't believe everything you see on CSI and other crime dramas.

The time of death in this case was not derived from entomological data.

We have no idea exactly which method or combination thereof was used. Forensic entomology is just one of their tools, and since her body was found outdoors, it’s safe for us to assume they used this method.

I have never watched CSI or any related television show, so my knowledge is based solely on what I read, and I do read extensively.

Nobody I know of yet on here is an expert. But we are all free to speculate.

Another thing is, out of respect for Sarai, and any possible family members or friends who are probably reading this thread, I don’t think I’m ready to post too many details regarding these methods.

 

[alabaster]

But can we really apprehend how comprehensive SS research of Istanbul was from that simple statement?

Not everything is on the Internet.

Assuming SS was well knowledgeable about Istanbul would simply lead us wrong.

Hello, first-time visitor to Istanbul last January again here. I can say from my experience that I did more than a bit of research before I went and can't remember any guide book or website that warned me to stay away from the walls. Which I find understandable, more people get in trouble in the notorious "Pavyon" scam bar areas (which they did warn me about).

Then, when you've been there for a week, there is a misleading sense of knowing the scene that you can get. You walk through some really run-down side streets in Tarlabasi or Sirkeci and still find the people friendly and caring enough even there (one observer on twitter, explaining the low crime rate, said 'the poor still own their streets, more than in other cities').

I was careful not to take great risks during my trip this January, and still found myself just by chance wandering around on Kennedy Drive like Sarai, almost on the same day. I don't want to disturb you but I have to say again: Playing up Sarai's percieved irresponsibility doesn't make the fact go away that on a really bad day it could have been any of us. In any one of a lot of places.

That said, I'll continue to read her actions for traits and attitudes that might have made her prone to misread any signs of threat. I believe there's still more to learn here for other travellers.

 

[Fantazteko]

Ok guys, I have an admittedly crazy theory. But just follow along for a minute....

Part 1: Random attack

For starters I was considering scenarios that would have to be motive for a random attack, and concluded for a random attack, it has to fall in some way into one of these categories.

1. Robbery
2. Rape
3. Psychotic break by disease or drugs

Looking at the robbery angle, from the crime scene I just don't see it. Why would certain things be left and why would certain things be taken? Why would her pants be off? In an act of robbery why wouldn't they just knock her out and take her stuff, and leave the body? If robbery was the only reason for this crime they could have gotten away with it much cleaner and wouldn't have gone through the effort to conceal the body. Robbers typically do not like to also be murderers, so if sarai put up such a fight over her stuff, I see a robber just taking off.

As far as rape, though her pants were removed, we haven't heard any other evidence of a possible rape. I'm not 100% positive but I am pretty sure the other girls raped at that spot were in the evening, but if someone else remembers better please correct me. I just feel if someone wanted to rape a 5'2 110lb woman, and they had raped before , they would have succeeded.

As for the psychotic break, it would definetly explain the disorganization but I don't think it would explain going through such an effort to cover it up. Especially making sure her earrings, and anything else that was dropped, including her license were with her. And I don't believe for a single second that someone killed her, and then someone else came across the body and took her stuff, and then someone else hid her. To me at least the idea that people would come across a dead foreign woman's body, and rob or move it, is ... Well I dunno I just don't see that at all.

Ok so now lets look at Z. What do we actually know about Z? We know he chose to live on the streets, we can assume this was do to a mental disorder but it does not mean this is necessarily so. You see though schizophrenia accounts is much higher, percentage wise in homeless populations, then in non homeless population it does not mean all homeless people have schizophrenia.

Based on some of the things we have learned about Z's home life, I'd be more inclined to believe that any mental issues Z had in life, were more mental disorders learned from compensating or dealing with the life he had, opposed to organic and biologically based mental disorders. We learned his father passed away when he was an infant, that his stepfather was harsh to him, that he didn't start school till he was 10, and only lasted 3 days before taking to the streets.

For a child to not start school till 10, and then be out in a classroom, either with children significantly younger, or children his own age but more educated, either one would have been emotionally stressful, extremely stressful, a huge blow to his self esteem. I'm sure he was laughed at for not knowing things, for possibly being illiterate. It doesn't surprise me at all that 3 days of school like that, and in all likelyhood an unhealthy relationship with his stepfather, would cause a 10 year old boy to flee to the streets. He probably felt like he had more street smarts, then school /society smarts....he wasnt being made fun of on the streets, he had found a place where he fit in. This to me seems more like an accurate picture of why Z took to the street over a biologically based psychosis of any kind. He was tough, he was hardened, he had a shell, he learned not to trust anyone but himself, all aspects that lead to compensations that can be classified as various types of personality disorders. But I don't see schizophrenia. Another small reason I don't think this, is because he was in the Turkish military for a while (which is I believe a 2 years requirement) for ALL males in Turkey, which I believe has to be fulfilled by the age of 33 (?). (Almighty or Yashim might be able to confirm the required time to serve and by what age better then I can). Anyway schizophrenia has a typical age of onset around 18-23, or early adult years. I just find it difficult to believe that a completely schizophrenic individual would be able to fulfill this commitment. Also some of the things we have heard about an hr long chat in the coffee shop in karabuck, and normal behavior on the bus, just don't paint the picture for me of someone with a severe psychosis.

Finally I was thinking what actual evidence is there really of Z at the crime scene? From what we have heard that his DNA was found under her finger nails. To me all this really tells us (assuming of course that it wasnt planted) is that Z had contact with Sarai, contact that she didn't want. But to me it doesn't really tell us he was the murderer. What if he was just the one who was restraining her, the only one close enough to her hands to reach to scratch. It really doesn't tell us he killed her. It just tells us he had contact with her.

Ok.....crazy theory coming up in part two...

Interesting post. Have not read through it all but some things written here reminded me of one case I followed some years back.

Almost from the very beginning of this case many details related to Sarai’s murder reminded me of a solved case several years ago.

He was dubbed the Railroad Killer. Angel Resendez or something.

What reminded me so much about this old case was how the perp killed his victims, would pull their identification and examine it, and leave it in plain view. Detectives even speculated he looked at their photo IDs while eating.

He also sometimes never raped his victims, or other times never robbd them, they said it was just a second motive sometimes. This killer was so disorganized, followed no pattern, which made him difficult to capture.

He’d use blunt objects that he found at the crime scene, never carried any weapons.

And another thing he did is he covered his victims with blankets.

Just thought I’d mention this, as a reference to how such killers operate. Besides I saw many parallels or similarities with the few facts we have.

 

[ThinkHard]

Part two.....the crazy theory

So I was thinking, what if Z wasnt the murderer, what if he wasnt even there when she died. What if someone hired him to lure her, and grab her?

But who would hire Z right? And why?

Ok bare with me....

Remember when we were discussing the sarai look a like theory, and the lady in the water with the red shirt.

I don't think we ever learned anything about the lady in the water, other then it was believed to be a suicide. Did we ever even learn her nationality? Was she Turkish? Maybe almighty or Yashim have seen mention of this.

Ok so what if that really was sarai on the video. But what if someone thought she was someone else, after all we debated, and some still have doubts if it was the real sarai, is it not possible that someone else could have confused her as well.

What if she was being followed because they thought she was this other woman. What if no one had a reason to kill sarai, but someone had a reason to kill this other woman. And what if they thought sarai was this other woman.

Ok please bare with me. ....

What if the woman in the water was a spy, or CIA, or some other form of intelligence, what if she was undercover drug intelligence, or something of that sort. Maybe the fact she was undercover is precisely why we have heard basically nothing about who she was or her death. I garantee if she didn't have some resemblance to sarai when they were looking for sarai, we wouldn't have heard about this woman's death at all. It would make sense to me that the death/murder of a "spy" would not be widely reported, and her information about her would not be made public.

What if somehow, for some reason this other woman and sarai were confused for one another. What if Z was hired to simply grab this woman, and take her to a cave....what if in this cave there were other men waiting for Z to come with this woman. What if the scratches and DNA under the nails were from him grabbing her, not from him killing her.

At one point early on, right in the first day or two of her being found, it was reported LE thought her body might have signs of torture. If this is so and she was taken to this cave, and was restrained, perhaps tortured for information, that she clearly didn't have because she was the wrong person, it might explain some of her many "defensive wounds".

Maybe as soon as Z brought her they payed him a small sum, and he left.

If they thought she was undercover or some kind of spy, it might explain why they took the electronics, it could also explain why they took off her pants, maybe they were looking for wires.

Obviously even after they realized perhaps they had they wrong person they couldn't leave her alive, she knew to much. So they told one of the guys to finish her off, make it look like a homeless attack, use a brick from the ground. It would also explain why they didn't give a rats *advertiser censored* about her jewelry. Maybe the person who had to finish her, was bloody, so wore her coat away from the scene to cover the blood spots.

This theory would also explain perhaps why her license was left. When they realized they had the wrong girl, they had remorse enough to at least let her be able to be identified, especially not knowing what stage of decomposition she would be in when her body was found.

This theory would also explain why Z fled, why he felt he had to get out of the country, he knew to much.

Furthermore say after Sarai's murder, they track down the real target, and convince her that they will either kill her, or she can jump off the bridge, or maybe they push her.
If this other woman was a spy, and LE and CIA has any inkling these two deaths could be related, could it not explain why the CIA is involved in tracking down Z? Maybe what they really want to know, is who recruited him to help out with Sarai's murder, because those are the same people involved in the death of the lady in the water.

Ok ok I know it seems far fetched.....but could this scenario explain some of the abnormalities and oddities in this case?

I'm sorry I know some people just want to think this was sarai doing what she loved, in the wrong place, at the wrong time, and was attacked randomly ..... But I don't buy it, I just don't. I really think there is more to this case, and we are missing something.

I really don't think Ziya is the murderer and if he involved I don't think he's the only one.

One last thought.....this crazy theory might also explain why Ziya made comments to his family thinking sarai was in the CIA, not because he was paranoid, but because he knew something about why they asked him to grab her, based on perhaps who these people who hired him were.

Another thing I forgot to mention....the theory about being grabbed, taken to others, tortured before being killed....could also explain the time of death being closer to 3-6 pm.....and why there is such a gap in her last sighting and death time.

Some level of professionalism could also explain, no witnesses....I would think in a homeless enclave word would get out pretty quick, that a professional element was taking care f business and to stay out if the way.

Also what homeless person would testify to this? None! They'd be in fear of their life....but if they say they saw Z there with her, after his DNA is confirmed under her nails, then the whole crime gets pinned on him, and the issue goes away, and the rest of the homeless community feels safer like these professionals are not going to threaten them, because as far as LE is concerned the case is closed....

 

[Herat]

OK, so from what was it derived (or guessed)?

The condition of the body would give a general idea- ie: more than a week vs a day.

The surveillance undoubtedly is what is giving the more precise information.

 

[alabaster]

Part two.....the crazy theory

...

I really think there is more to this case, and we are missing something.

I really don't think Ziya is the murderer and if he involved I don't think he's the only one.

...

I'm not putting this down. I can see you're really feeling strongly that we're missing something. If we really are, a new theory is good. But I wish I knew which detail exactly it is that makes you feel this so strongly. There's so little confirmed data ...

 

[ThinkHard]

Interesting post. Have not read through it all but some things written here reminded me of one case I followed some years back.

Almost from the very beginning of this case many details related to Sarai’s murder reminded me of a solved case several years ago.

He was dubbed the Railroad Killer. Angel Resendez or something.

What reminded me so much about this old case was how the perp killed his victims, would pull their identification and examine it, and leave it in plain view. Detectives even speculated he looked at their photo IDs while eating.

He also sometimes never raped his victims, or other times never robbd them, they said it was just a second motive sometimes. This killer was so disorganized, followed no pattern, which made him difficult to capture.

He’d use blunt objects that he found at the crime scene, never carried any weapons.

And another thing he did is he covered his victims with blankets.

Just thought I’d mention this, as a reference to how such killers operate. Besides I saw many parallels or similarities with the few facts we have.

I can totally understand this train of thought, however if the killer was Z and this case is similar to the one you mentioned, we have to consider a few things.

Z had been to prison before for petty crimes. I would think because of this, they have a lot of information on him. We have not read that any of his previous crimes were violent in nature. But rather that his previous crimes were actually done to get him a shelter and food during the cold winters. If someone was a serial killer I would think they would avoid prison at all cost, preferring to keep their name off the radar of the law. I wouldn't think a serial killer, would commit petty crimes to put himself in jail for shelter.

Also his DNA was found under SS's finger nails. If he had done this before and multiple times, I would think at least one of two things, either he would have figured out by now how to avoid being scratched by the victim in order to avoid DNA under the nails, or that several of his there victims would also have had his DNA under their nails, and this DnA would be evidence in other cases, on a national data base, and when Z's DNA was found as a match to SS, they would have also seen it matched other cold cases.

 

[Yashim]

Ok guys, I have an admittedly crazy theory. But just follow along for a minute....

Interesting post. Have not read through it all but some things written here reminded me of one case I followed some years back......

Nice post, ThinkHard,

But I think I'll also wait for the movie like Fantazteko.



:floorlaugh:

 

[ThinkHard]

I'm not putting this down. I can see you're really feeling strongly that we're missing something. If we really are, a new theory is good. But I wish I knew which detail exactly it is that makes you feel this so strongly. There's so little confirmed data ...

I'm just not seeing the motivation for random crime. I'm not understanding how a random crime would be focused on taking specific things and neglecting others. I don't see how a psychotic break would result in such an organized concealing of the body, including collecting dropped belonging (pants, earrings, license, headphones) and making sure they were with the body.

And as a former expat of Istanbul...i don't see sarai venturing to those walls without a reason....and with her lack of posted IG pictures from Istanbul, and ample time to spend editing them....I don't see photography as the huge pull others do for why she just HAD to be at those walls that day.

It really doesn't matter what a guide book tells you or warns you....you can see from the other side of the road, you can see from driving by in a car....that that part of the walls was covered in trash and broken bottles and homeless people's residences....no one would venture into THAT part of the walls alone without purpose, without reason.....even if you walked along Kennedy to that point....you would not go exploring freely in that spot, no way.

It would be like walking on a main road in the states and seeing an alley with cardboard boxes (that homeless people live in) and dirty blankets and trash and decided to venture down that alley.

 

[Yashim]

Sarai is not a 33-year old behaving like 9, she was as considerate as a 29-year old when she was 9.

The brown bag turns out to be her jacket.

Ziya's family says "he couldn't even hurt an ant. We are deeply shocked."

The earrings weren't placed next to the body, but were found in a nearby spot, suggesting the perp might have accidentally dropped them.

Her face wasn't unrecognizable, but perhaps was so much damaged that it was almost impossible to recognize her.

Watching for the third time the female witness speaking to the press after her statement to LE, I realized that the reason that she talks kind of funny might probably be due to some sort of cosmetic intervention, e.g. botox or lip enhancement. If true, then there might be another reason why she hadn't come forward sooner.

Every single day, we learn or become aware of something that either refutes or makes us question the very assumptions on which we had based our theories.

This case is full of intellectual land mines.

So what's next? NASA announcing "In fact, the Universe is flat."

 

[alabaster]

It really doesn't matter what a guide book tells you or warns you....you can see from the other side of the road, you can see from driving by in a car....that that part of the walls was covered in trash and broken bottles and homeless people's residences....no one would venture into THAT part of the walls alone without purpose, without reason.....even if you walked along Kennedy to that point....you would not go exploring freely in that spot, no way.

It would be like walking on a main road in the states and seeing an alley with cardboard boxes (that homeless people live in) and dirty blankets and trash and decided to venture down that alley.

Yes, it remains strange to imagine her crossing the road and leaving the walkway, I admit that. She could have been distracted by thoughts of going home and by ... something she could photograph (laugh here). I didn't cross the road myself except for a spot where the walls meet the walkway directly (no caves or anything there). But I didn't pass there in the midday sun.

 

[Yashim]

Ok guys, I have an admittedly crazy theory. But just follow along for a minute....

.....

But I don't see schizophrenia. Another small reason I don't think this, is because he was in the Turkish military for a while (which is I believe a 2 years requirement) for ALL males in Turkey, which I believe has to be fulfilled by the age of 33 (?). (Almighty or Yashim might be able to confirm the required time to serve and by what age better then I can).

.....

It is not 33 but 40.

Some mild or borderline cases may not be quite observable by the doctors unless the patient himself or his family tells them.

But this is me guessing.

 

[alabaster]

...


This case is full of intellectual land mines.

So what's next? NASA announcing "In fact, the Universe is flat."

Watch next: Sarai wanted to grafitti-tag Topkapi Saray to get on TV!

 

[Yashim]

Ok guys, I have an admittedly crazy theory. But just follow along for a minute....

Also some of the things we have heard about an hr long chat in the coffee shop in karabuck, and normal behavior on the bus, just don't paint the picture for me of someone with a severe psychosis.

....

Ok.....crazy theory coming up in part two...

The coffee shop in karabuck? Really?

It's Karabük. You'd know that, too.

You were thinking of Starbucks when you were writing that.

And that was a Freudian slip, right?

So funny.

 

[ThinkHard]

It is not 33 but 40.

Some mild or borderline cases may not be quite observable by the doctors unless the patient himself or his family tells them.

But this is me guessing.

Thanks Yashim I couldn't remember the exact age the military service had to be completed by.

As far as a borderline case....how could he be on the unrecognizable side of a psychiatric disorder....but yet so affected by said disorder it cause him to kill?

Seems like it can't be both.

 

[ThinkHard]

Nice post, ThinkHard,

But I think I'll also wait for the movie like Fantazteko.



:floorlaugh:

Ill get working on the screenplay.....maybe I've missed my calling all these years and should really be a crime writer

 

[ThinkHard]

Yes, it remains strange to imagine her crossing the road and leaving the walkway, I admit that. She could have been distracted by thoughts of going home and by ... something she could photograph (laugh here). I didn't cross the road myself except for a spot where the walls meet the walkway directly (no caves or anything there). But I didn't pass there in the midday sun.

Well I can almost see her going to the edge of those walls....but not into those walls....and she couldn't have been attacked right at the edge...too much road traffic, too risky to be seen.....it's the going deeper into the walls I can't fathom.