GUILTY Turkey - Sarai Sierra, 33, NY woman murdered, Istanbul, 21 Jan 2013 - #5

[alabaster]

It really doesn't matter what a guide book tells you or warns you....you can see from the other side of the road, you can see from driving by in a car....

Wanted to mention the guidebooks to stress that it's possible to be unaware beforehand what they (the walls) are like, even with some research done.

Once you are there, sure ...

And I will not forget that you said earlier it was already odd that she walked that first piece from Serkeci to the Gülhane entrance at Sarayburnu.

 

[alabaster]

Well I can almost see her going to the edge of those walls....but not into those walls....and she couldn't have been attacked right at the edge...too much road traffic, too risky to be seen.....it's the going deeper into the walls I can't fathom.

Someone chatted her up. Possibly innocently, not the killer. I believe LE will find out more or has already.

 

[SANDOVAL]

Watch next: Sarai wanted to grafitti-tag Topkapi Saray to get on TV!

Ahhh....my chance to post a ridiculous theory which makes thinkhard's look even more well thought out (which it is).
SS had a secret interest in doing tagging herself.
The mysterious package which she maybe sent to her rental address before leaving USA, contained spray paint.
She went to Saray point and into the messy area precisely to leave her own 'kilroy was here'
:truce:

 

[Yashim]

I don't think we ever learned anything about the lady in the water, other then it was believed to be a suicide. Did we ever even learn her nationality? Was she Turkish? Maybe almighty or Yashim have seen mention of this.

First, he is not Almighty, he is Alpmighty. Almighty is someone else.

Secondly, I looked again, but couldn't find any news about the identity of that woman.

But Sarayburnu is a famous spot where most dead bodies surface.

I also know of a rumor that Sultan Ibrahim (1615-1648) had 300 concubines of his harem put into sacks and thrown into the sea at Sarayburnu.

Sarayburnu is like a gateway to the Other Side.

...

 

[Yashim]

Ahhh....my chance to post a ridiculous theory which makes thinkhard's look even more well thought out (which it is).
SS had a secret interest in doing tagging herself.
The mysterious package which she maybe sent to her rental address before leaving USA, contained spray paint.
She went to Saray point and into the messy area precisely to leave her own 'kilroy was here'
:truce:

That is crazy.

Maybe Ziya had made himself believe that he was the guardian of the city walls. And that's how things got started.

Very unlikely.

But I have heard of this mentally ill guy on one of the Prince Islands, some islands in Marmara Sea off the coast of Istanbul. From time to time, he would pour a bag or two of table salt into the sea saying that he was adjusting the salt level.

So, anything's possible...

 

[ThinkHard]

First, he is not Almighty, he is Alpmighty. Almighty is someone else.

Secondly, I looked again, but couldn't find any news about the identity of that woman.

But Sarayburnu is a famous spot where most dead bodies surface.

I also know of a rumor that Sultan Ibrahim (1615-1648) had 300 concubines of his harem put into sacks and thrown into the sea at Sarayburnu.

Sarayburnu is like a gateway to the Other Side.

...

Then it would be a perfect place for organized criminals to plan to torture and murder a potential spy!

 

[ThinkHard]

That is crazy.

Maybe Ziya had made himself believe that he was the guardian of the city walls. And that's how things got started.

Very unlikely.

But I have heard of this mentally ill guy on one of the Prince Islands, some islands in Marmara Sea off the coast of Istanbul. From time to time, he would pour a bag or two of table salt into the sea saying that he was adjusting the salt level.

So, anything's possible...

That's it, maybe its this same guy, and he took a ferry from adalar to serkeci, and then he was leveling out the salt water, and sarai told him he was crazy and he lost t!.....( I'm clearly kidding)

 

[Yashim]

Part two.....the crazy theory

............

What if somehow, for some reason this other woman and sarai were confused for one another. What if Z was hired to simply grab this woman, and take her to a cave....what if in this cave there were other men waiting for Z to come with this woman. What if the scratches and DNA under the nails were from him grabbing her, not from him killing her.

At one point early on, right in the first day or two of her being found, it was reported LE thought her body might have signs of torture. If this is so and she was taken to this cave, and was restrained, perhaps tortured for information, that she clearly didn't have because she was the wrong person, it might explain some of her many "defensive wounds".

Maybe as soon as Z brought her they payed him a small sum, and he left.

If they thought she was undercover or some kind of spy, it might explain why they took the electronics, it could also explain why they took off her pants, maybe they were looking for wires.

Obviously even after they realized perhaps they had they wrong person they couldn't leave her alive, she knew to much. So they told one of the guys to finish her off, make it look like a homeless attack, use a brick from the ground. It would also explain why they didn't give a rats *advertiser censored* about her jewelry. Maybe the person who had to finish her, was bloody, so wore her coat away from the scene to cover the blood spots.

This theory would also explain perhaps why her license was left. When they realized they had the wrong girl, they had remorse enough to at least let her be able to be identified, especially not knowing what stage of decomposition she would be in when her body was found.

This theory would also explain why Z fled, why he felt he had to get out of the country, he knew to much.

Furthermore say after Sarai's murder, they track down the real target, and convince her that they will either kill her, or she can jump off the bridge, or maybe they push her.
If this other woman was a spy, and LE and CIA has any inkling these two deaths could be related, could it not explain why the CIA is involved in tracking down Z? Maybe what they really want to know, is who recruited him to help out with Sarai's murder, because those are the same people involved in the death of the lady in the water.

Ok ok I know it seems far fetched.....but could this scenario explain some of the abnormalities and oddities in this case?

I'm sorry I know some people just want to think this was sarai doing what she loved, in the wrong place, at the wrong time, and was attacked randomly ..... But I don't buy it, I just don't. I really think there is more to this case, and we are missing something.

I really don't think Ziya is the murderer and if he involved I don't think he's the only one.

One last thought.....this crazy theory might also explain why Ziya made comments to his family thinking sarai was in the CIA, not because he was paranoid, but because he knew something about why they asked him to grab her, based on perhaps who these people who hired him were.

Another thing I forgot to mention....the theory about being grabbed, taken to others, tortured before being killed....could also explain the time of death being closer to 3-6 pm.....and why there is such a gap in her last sighting and death time.

Some level of professionalism could also explain, no witnesses....I would think in a homeless enclave word would get out pretty quick, that a professional element was taking care f business and to stay out if the way.

Also what homeless person would testify to this? None! They'd be in fear of their life....but if they say they saw Z there with her, after his DNA is confirmed under her nails, then the whole crime gets pinned on him, and the issue goes away, and the rest of the homeless community feels safer like these professionals are not going to threaten them, because as far as LE is concerned the case is closed....

Thanks for the post. I read it all. Probably, Fantazteko too. I was just kidding in my earlier post.

If a professional wants to kill someone in Istanbul and lose the body, there are a thousand safer ways to do it. He would never pick a spot like that. IMO

No professional organization would work with Z. He is not credible.

Searching for wires could be the motive for taking her pants. But why not put them back on. Why make it look like a rape only for the first impression?

I am thinking that professionals have no remorse. That would just make the body disappear. That way we wouldn't even be able to develop these theories that would lead us back to them.

We just don't know that if Z knew he was the No.1 suspect when he first arrived at his hometown.

Or do we?

 

[ThinkHard]

Thanks for the post. I read it all. Probably, Fantazteko too. I was just kidding in my earlier post.

If you want to kill a professional wants to kills someone in Istanbul and lose the body, there are a thousand safer ways to do it. They would never pick a spot like that. IMO

No professional organization would work with Z. He is not credible.

Searching for wires could be the motive for taking her pants. But why not put them back on. Why make it look like a rape only for the first impression?

I am thinking that professionals have no remorse. That would just make the body disappear. That way we wouldn't even be able to develop these theories that would lead us back to them.

We just don't know that if Z knew he was the No.1 suspect when he first arrived at his hometown.

Or do we?

Yes I understand the idea that professional killers could just make the body disapear.

However if you realize now that you have an American tourist who you have killed, I think it would be smarter for a professional to stage the body to look like a random homeless attack, precisely for the reason people would say " it can't be professional, it doesn't have the marks of professional, they would have just gotten rid of the body"

Sometimes the best way to cover your tracks is not to leave none at all, but to point them in the wrong direction.

Just by the mere fact you say no professionals wouldn't ever.......is exactly why they might.....what better cover is their then that.

Also why not recruit Z, you just say bring this girl to us, will pay you this, and if you tell anyone, we kill you......he's a homeless man without a dollar to his name and they would easily have power over him.

 

[SANDOVAL]

That is crazy.

Maybe Ziya had made himself believe that he was the guardian of the city walls. And that's how things got started.

Very unlikely.

But I have heard of this mentally ill guy on one of the Prince Islands, some islands in Marmara Sea off the coast of Istanbul. From time to time, he would pour a bag or two of table salt into the sea saying that he was adjusting the salt level.

So, anything's possible...

Crazy? Hmmmm...Here's a bit to add to the crazy theory then
One of those tourist blogs to which someone posted a link a long while back now, said the traveller encountered 'a group of 4 or 5 tag artists', and i remembered the group of men who were with the rug seller, and laughing, as he gave SS his card.
("wow an American lady admires graffiti and comes to our city just to photograph it! Yes, indeed Lady, we can make you some custom beautiful graffiti! We will be in touch.....")

 

[ThinkHard]

Crazy? Hmmmm...Here's a bit to add to the crazy theory then
One of those tourist blogs to which someone posted a link a long while back now, said the traveller encountered 'a group of 4 or 5 tag artists', and i remembered the group of men who were with the rug seller, and laughing, as he gave SS his card.
("wow an American lady admires graffiti and comes to our city just to photograph it! Yes, indeed Lady, we can make you some custom beautiful graffiti! We will be in touch.....")

Hmmm who knows....Istanbul as plenty of amature taggers!

 

[Yashim]

Ok, here is a crazy theory from me.

The craziest part is that Z afterall is not as evil as we think him to be.

When SS is taking photos, Z approaches SS, SS panics, screams.

Or she is not even afraid of Z but sees the druggies grouping behind. That's why she might have screamed.

Hearing S scream, Z also panics, since he doesn't speak any English so he can't tell SS that he means no harm.

He tries to cover SS's mouth. SS scrathes his face.

He gets mad, they struggle and he ends up killing her.

Shocked at what he has done, he can't even move. Only notices the druggies when they come near SS's body.

They take off her pants in an attempt to rape her and try to take off her jewelry.

Z tells them to go away, just lets them have her electronics.

He hides the body and leaves town.

(Since Z's blood's on SS's shirt, he must have taken part in the murder.)

He tries to console himself that she is a CIA spy.

This is very common in Turkey.

Whenever, some tourist does something unconventional we expect him/her to be either a CIA or a Mossad spy.

Most of the time, the accusation is nothing more than a joke.

 

[ThinkHard]

Ok, here is a crazy theory from me.

The craziest part is that Z afterall is not as evil as we think him to be.

When SS is taking photos, Z approaches SS, SS panics, screams.

Or she is not even afraid of Z but sees the druggies grouping behind. That's why she might have screamed.

Hearing S scream, Z also panics, since he doesn't speak any English so he can't tell SS that he means no harm.

He tries to cover SS's mouth. SS scrathes his face.

He gets mad, they struggle and he ends up killing her.

Shocked at what he has done, he can't even move. Only notices the druggies when they come near SS's body.

They take off her pants in an attempt to rape her and try to take off her jewelry.

Z tells them to go away, just lets them have her electronics.

He hides the body and leaves town.

(Since Z's blood's on SS's shirt, he must have taken part in the murder.)

He tries to console himself that she is a CIA spy.

This is very common in Turkey.

Whenever, some tourist does something unconventional we expect him/her to be either a CIA or a Mossad spy.

Most of the time, the accusation is nothing more than a joke.

Well I wouldn't assume just because his blood is on her shirt means he was there for the murder, if he grabbed her and she scratched it could cause bleeding that could have gotten on her shirt.

It shows z was at least close enough to her at some point that she scratched and he bleed. But if he was grabbing her to bring her to someone else, this could also explain the blood.

To me that fact is not absolute proof he was there when she died.

 

[Yashim]

....Sometimes the best way to cover your tracks is not to leave none at all, but to point them in the wrong direction.

Just by the mere fact you say no professionals wouldn't ever.......is exactly why they might.....what better cover is their then that.

Also why not recruit Z, you just say bring this girl to us, will pay you this, and if you tell anyone, we kill you......he's a homeless man without a dollar to his name and they would easily have power over him.

Yes, but first of all Z is really no Brad Pitt. Luring SS inside the walls would be just asking too much from him.

Secondly, what you're saying is exactly what I'm saying. The moment you can guess a professional's behavior, you should be expecting him/her to have done the opposite. And he/she believes that he/she might have left clues leading to that expectation, then he/she'll execute the initial plan. Because a professional is someone who is professional.

 

[Yashim]

Well I wouldn't assume just because his blood is on her shirt means he was there for the murder, if he grabbed her and she scratched it could cause bleeding that could have gotten on her shirt.

It shows z was at least close enough to her at some point that she scratched and he bleed. But if he was grabbing her to bring her to someone else, this could also explain the blood.

To me that fact is not absolute proof he was there when she died.

So, you mean they asked Z to bring SS to them by force. That's more likely.

So, I am guessing that Z wasn't announced as the major suspect when he was in Karabük. If he was, that'll make everyone who talked to him some sort of accomplice.

And he still tells his friends about the murder and that he might be pinned for it.

Then there are two explanations:

1- He really did it, but he doesn't what his friends to remember him with that. So he makes up a story suggesting his innocence. Too sophisticated for a first grade dropout.

2- He is somewhat involved, but the real murderer is someone else.

If Z has made it across the border, then we'll never know the entire story. I also doubt any statement from LE will clarify anything. If the 95% they had was useful, they'd already arrested Z by now.

I doubt any secret agent in Syria will risk blowing his cover just to locate a murder suspect.

 

[ThinkHard]

So, you mean they asked Z to bring SS to them by force. That's more likely.

So, I am guessing that Z wasn't announced as the major suspect when he was in Karabük. If he was, that'll make everyone who talked to him some sort of accomplice.

And he still tells his friends about the murder and that he might be pinned for it.

Then there are two explanations:

1- He really did it, but he doesn't what his friends to remember him with that. So he makes up a story suggesting his innocence. Too sophisticated for a first grade dropout.

2- He is somewhat involved, but the real murderer is someone else.

If Z has made it across the border, then we'll never know the entire story. I also doubt any statement from LE will clarify anything. If the 95% they had was useful, they'd already arrested Z by now.

I doubt any secret agent in Syria will risk blowing his cover just to locate a murder suspect.

True, unless you follow my theory from earlier.....

Meaning that if the woman in the water really was a spy/CIA and sarai was mistaken for her and murdered.....then CIA might REALLY want to track down Z because whoever hired him and killed sarai would also be associated with whoever is responsible for the woman in the waters death.

And CIA might be far more interested in who took out one of their own, the in who killed a tourist.

 

[Yashim]

As far as a borderline case....how could he be on the unrecognizable side of a psychiatric disorder....but yet so affected by said disorder it cause him to kill?

Seems like it can't be both.

I was just speaking from experience.


:crazy:


...

 

[SANDOVAL]

True, unless you follow my theory from earlier.....

Meaning that if the woman in the water really was a spy/CIA and sarai was mistaken for her and murdered.....then CIA might REALLY want to track down Z because whoever hired him and killed sarai would also be associated with whoever is responsible for the woman in the waters death.

And CIA might be far more interested in who took out one of their own, the in who killed a tourist.

Yes, interesting, i had wondered this myself, about 'why CIA'?

 

[SANDOVAL]

So, you mean they asked Z to bring SS to them by force. That's more likely.

So, I am guessing that Z wasn't announced as the major suspect when he was in Karabük. If he was, that'll make everyone who talked to him some sort of accomplice.

And he still tells his friends about the murder and that he might be pinned for it.

Then there are two explanations:

1- He really did it, but he doesn't what his friends to remember him with that. So he makes up a story suggesting his innocence. Too sophisticated for a first grade dropout.

2- He is somewhat involved, but the real murderer is someone else.

If Z has made it across the border, then we'll never know the entire story. I also doubt any statement from LE will clarify anything. If the 95% they had was useful, they'd already arrested Z by now.

I doubt any secret agent in Syria will risk blowing his cover just to locate a murder suspect.

Z has already told everyone at home that he is 'only has 6 months' to live: meaning, i suppose that if he does not show up again, they will know what happened.
So he will change his identity, maybe several times, using id's from others in the civil unrest.

 

[Yashim]

Thanks Yashim I couldn't remember the exact age the military service had to be completed by.

And you couldn't remember the latest age for the military service? Couldn't remember?

ThinkHard, why on earth did you even need to learn that in the first place?

You are really scaring me.

Sometimes you sound like the Temperance "Bones" character that Emily Deschanel plays in Bones.

Unless you're some FBI agent or something, I find it odd that you know so much. Odder than all the odd things in this case.

And may be you are.

Perhaps your real name is something like Temperance Winkhard.

Agent Winkhard from FBI's Middle East Division.

That makes sense.

Seeing that we were getting off track, you nudged us in the right direction with your latest theory.

"Ok guys, I have an admittedly crazy theory...."

Really? Perhaps that's not even your theory. You were just copying and pasting it from the most recent report sitting in front of you.

And splitting it into two separate posts just to make us think that you were actually typing it was a nice touch!

But we are smart, Agent Winkhard.

Just way too smart for FBI.