GUILTY Turkey - Sarai Sierra, 33, NY woman murdered, Istanbul, 21 Jan 2013 - #5

[alpmighty]

Yes I understand the idea that professional killers could just make the body disapear.

However if you realize now that you have an American tourist who you have killed, I think it would be smarter for a professional to stage the body to look like a random homeless attack, precisely for the reason people would say " it can't be professional, it doesn't have the marks of professional, they would have just gotten rid of the body"

Sometimes the best way to cover your tracks is not to leave none at all, but to point them in the wrong direction.

Just by the mere fact you say no professionals wouldn't ever.......is exactly why they might.....what better cover is their then that.

Also why not recruit Z, you just say bring this girl to us, will pay you this, and if you tell anyone, we kill you......he's a homeless man without a dollar to his name and they would easily have power over him.

Best course for a professional would be making it looking like an accident or suicide, rather than disposing of the body permanently and ensuring LE heat staying high on the case.

 

[alpmighty]

There is, Alpmighty.

We should be careful when answering these questions about Turkey because sometime I get this weird feeling that there are members among us who are actually reading other members' posts.

They won't let a 85-year old guy in the army.

40 is the last age for training, 45 is for getting drafted.

But there is no way you can defer military service until 40 unless you are working abroad or getting higher education. Both does not apply to Ziya.

 

[alpmighty]

And I'm sure whatever undercover operations that may go on in any one country, is not knowledge that the public, you, or even regular LE would be privy too. That would after all defeat the purpose of being discrete after all.

If SS was involved in a government undercover operation, we would not be discussing this case here at all, as her disappearance and murder would not have made headlines with the current circumstances in the first place. We would simply be unaware, or we would hear it as an undercover operative ended up getting killed, and as such, no discussion on websleuths as there'd be no mystery.

By the way, did you ever hear of an undercover intel operative ending up dead making headlines? Unless there is a necessity to disclose any such event, they are covered up. Dagger and cloak. As I said before, there's a wall of stars without names in Langley for the fallen, and that is there, without names, for a reason.

Lastly, would SS family publicly come forward when she first disappeared? There are no covert assets working for governments without the knowledge of their next of kin. Even in cases that such operatives cannot disclose what they do, they use covers such as working for Department of Agriculture. Is there even such a cover in SS case? Not that we're aware of.

If sleuthers seriously would consider SS as an intel asset, then they would do well to consider me as Bruce Wayne and Batman.

 

[SophieRose]

I am still confused as to why Ziya’s DNA was linked to him only after investigators visited his sister’s house. They were mentioning some facts about his cave, and that the crime occurred nearby. It’s unclear if they had DNA evidence that was linked to him early on.

It sounds like they initially had witness accounts of Z being seen with Sarai. They may have tasted items for DNA in his "cave" to match the blood and nail scrapings found on her. But they wouldn't know for sure that was his DNA in that "cave." Nor would they know for sure that the hair found on the pillow was Z's hair. So test the siblings to see if there was a family match, and there was. And the hair on the pillow matched the DNA found on Sarai.

 

[SophieRose]

But there is no way you can defer military service until 40 unless you are working abroad or getting higher education. Both does not apply to Ziya.

The British tabloid "Daily Mal" said that Z was arrested at 15 for stealing a televison, and jailed for seven years. Seems a bit severe punishment, assuming no previous arrests for the teenager. Just curious, is one eligible in Turkey for the military with prior criminal history?

 

[alpmighty]

The British tabloid "Daily Mal" said that Z was arrested at 15 for stealing a televison, and jailed for seven years. Seems a bit severe punishment, assuming no previous arrests for the teenager. Just curious, is one eligible in Turkey for the military with prior criminal history?

As the service is obligatory, having a prior does not make you ineligible for military service. It can effect some circumstances, for instance if you have higher education and a prior other than misdemeanor criminal record, you may not be able to serve as an officer, only enlisted.

Even if you are imprisoned for a prior crime, as soon as your sentence is finished and you're released, you are obligated to serve unless you've been in jail for too long and you are past the cut off age of 40.

 

[alpmighty]

The British tabloid "Daily Mal" said that Z was arrested at 15 for stealing a televison, and jailed for seven years. Seems a bit severe punishment, assuming no previous arrests for the teenager. Just curious, is one eligible in Turkey for the military with prior criminal history?

Moreover, assuming Daily Mail is correct, Ziya was sentenced 20 years ago, and Turkish sentencing guidelines and criminal law were much harsher at that time.

 

[alabaster]

Several recent posts have inspired this idea to explain why Sarai did go to the walls area. I haven't found out if it would fit the sketchy timeline.

– Sarai wants an exciting photo adventure on her last day, possibly on the Asian side, like she told her sister. Perhaps hoping for something not so 'made-for-tourists'?

– She hopes for guidance and company from T on this last day though he's just not too enthusiastic. Istanbul has been a bit slow in that respect for her (Amsterdam was better). She dresses up for T, asks him to come down to Galata, but he, although friendly, isn't ready for that right then.

– OK, her urge to do something with her day is more important to her and she hops on a ferry across the Bosphorus to Kadıköy. The boat glides along the coast, ancient walls brightly lit in the midday sun. Maybe she thinks she sees other photographers there. She has a glass of tea on a carefree 20-minute voyage. Istanbul ferries are like that.

– I love Kadiköy, but when Sarai arrives around noon the place presents itself, bus terminal and all, like downtown anywhere in an especially hectic mood. After a while she takes a return ferry and finds herself back at Galata bridge after 1 hour in all, now heading towards Sarayburnu.

– Walking down Kennedy Drive to the walls (there's just nothing else there apart from Gülhane park, which she passes, and the shoreline, all dark rocks), she gets the feeling that the place is not so inviting after all. But she walks another 20 yards to see what may be there, and then another, because this day is all she has left.

– Something happens which we don't know yet, someone chatting her up, which gets her across the road into the ruins. After that, my guess is along Yashim's speculation: a situation of limited threat at first escalates badly. Reason doesn't apply. I believe we'll hear about that from witnessing locals once LE closes the case.

 

[Chewy]

Part two.....the crazy theory

So I was thinking, what if Z wasnt the murderer, what if he wasnt even there when she died. What if someone hired him to lure her, and grab her?

Snipped for brevity...

This elaborate theory would be blown and over in about two hot seconds the minute Sarai opened her mouth and spoke with a NY accent instead of a Turkish accent don't you think.

Or do you think that they'd torture her and press her to speak thinking she's pretending not to speak Turkish?

This isn't a Hollywood movie where foreigners all speak English with accents. They would instantly know she wasn't the other woman.

Also there's no confusion about him not taking the jewelry because he just didn't care about the jewelry, just because you are well versed in gold troy ounce prices and whatnot doesn't mean Z was. He obviously cared enough to take the electronics and leave the jewelry behind. Not a big mystery. It isn't as if he left a diamond bracelet on her.

Also if Z was well known in the neighborhood which seems to be the case it could well be that the vendors wouldn't have dealt with him because they knew he was a homeless garbage picker. IOW everything he'd bring to them was stolen merchandise.

There's a huge difference in looking the otherway and not asking questions about jewelry sold and knowing full well that the person who is selling the pieces stole them. That would be very bad business for a vendor.

I feel that the jewelry wasn't taken is a non issue.


Also to another issue regarding TK that someone raised, "why didn't he meet her." The woman was married and had sex with him. Perhaps he got worried about this coming back and being a problem and so he just wanted to cut ties with her for this reason. Also maybe the idea that she went to Amsterdam and slept on that man's couch without really knowing him, freaked out TK and he thought of her as a little trashy after that and just didn't want to be seen with her again.

 

[ThinkHard]

If I was an Intel guy myself, it would all depend on circumstances. Formal authorization and the condition of Aston Martin DB9 I'd drive regularly come to my mind. And of course, a good day of gambling in my tuxedo, resulting in loss of money also would effect my temper and my decision to disclose any such information.

All joking aside, even if CIA wanted to conduct an op in Istanbul without the knowledge of Turkish Intelligence, it would be extremely unwise to use SS as an asset.

She has a very extensive online presence. She doesn't know the local language. She doesn't have any prior experience abroad. Hardly asset material.

Turkey is not Cold War era Soviet Union. Foreigners arriving are not scrutinized in such way. Any cover story necessitating an online presence like SS had would be completely unnecessary. A more subtle cover like a travelling businessman, or a tourist without an extensive online presence would work.

Add to that, there is nothing of Intelligence value in the areas SS has been.

SS was not a CIA asset. Clandestine service does not use amateurs for abroad undercover assignments.

Since persistence on SS being an Intel asset is still strong, I will add that there were only two CIA assets uncovered in Turkish history that were operating without Turkish Intelligence authorization and knowledge. Both were high ranking MIT officers, passing on high-level intelligence to CIA. The reason is quite simple, Turkey is already a strong US ally, which historically was a frontline NATO state bordering Soviet Union directly. CIA does not need to conduct undercover intel ops for low-level information.

Signals intelligence, which falls under US military and NSA is a different story. US actively conducts SIGINT operations even against it's most trusted allies. However, since HUMINT assets and work are largely irrelevant to that area, there is no need for consideration.

Alp,
I think you missed the point of my latest theory....I was NOT saying sarai was a spy....never thought she was. I was saying perhaps the woman in the water was a spy, sarai was mistaken for her, because hey shared a resemblance. Also explaining why we have heard nothing about this lady in the water, because if she was a spy why would we. If the CIA searching Z is true, then it might be because they knew who ever killed Sarai was really after this spy, and they want to know who was after their own and Z has info.
Admittedly it is a big theory, but it actually does fit what we know about the case, takes a few leaps, but does not contradict the stuff we know either...you know that measly 5%.

 

[ThinkHard]

You are not seeing a motivation for a random crime, assuming that perp would be equally sane and stable just like you. And with that assumption, I wouldn't see any motivation either. But the assumption is simply wrong.

Alp I don't see random, because I don't see it in the evidence we have either. Not because I'm viewing the perp as having the same view as me. That would be inane.

 

[Yashim]

It is actually a formal arrangement. I come from a military family. Any illiteracy issue with long term conscripts are handled within the military.

There are even rural/eastern conscripts who come fresh off their villages and they have never used toilet paper in their lives!

Short term conscripts (college grads) or professional NCOs deal with them, educate them.

Is it really true?

Because before I wrote the message I did check the Military Act, which came into force in 1927 and went through several revisions (with last one being May 22, 2012). (In fact I had initially checked it for age limits).

http://www.asal.msb.gov.tr/kanun/1111_As.Kanunu.pdf

"Literacy Schools" were introduced by Provisional Articles in 1970, clearly stating the teaching assignments for those enlisted until 1975. Thus, after 1975, I assumed there would be no legal basis for such assignments.

So I figured it must have turned into somewhat of a discretionary service.

I would think any formal arrangement would have to be based on the Military Act. Maybe I misinterpreted the deadline of 1975. Or maybe they just didn't think they needed to update it. Nobody would challenge such a positive, beneficial effort anyway.

...

 

[ThinkHard]

Yes we do.

Americans here before correctly analyzed that from Ziya family interviews, his relations with his brother are stained and only with his mother he has a healthy relationship.

Both Ziya's mother and brother already stated he is unstable and naive.

Add to that, we know that his brother said Ziya previously held a regular job and was living in an apartment in Istanbul, rented by him for Ziya.

Ziya gave them all up to live the life of a derelict, scavenging and living in the streets. He isn't homeless because he had no other options, he is homeless by choice.

Does that appear like a sane guy to anybody here?

A common mistake I've observed here is assuming Ziya is normal and stable like most of the sleuthers here are.

It would be prohibitively hard for most to think like Ziya, getting into his shoes. Gazing into abyss is difficult, if not impossible.

A few comments from family is hardly grounds for a diagnosis. The guy had a tough life, and had lived on the streets since he was 11, that's where he felt comfortable. It is a far cry to assume from this he had a mental issue that would have propelled him to a crime such as murder.

You might know about military opps, but I know psychology.

 

[ThinkHard]

Not really! There would be more convenient locations for those, being off the charts in remote areas and such.

I don't doubt that, but few places would be better to pin the crime on a homeless then there.

 

[ThinkHard]

If SS was involved in a government undercover operation, we would not be discussing this case here at all, as her disappearance and murder would not have made headlines with the current circumstances in the first place. We would simply be unaware, or we would hear it as an undercover operative ended up getting killed, and as such, no discussion on websleuths as there'd be no mystery.

By the way, did you ever hear of an undercover intel operative ending up dead making headlines? Unless there is a necessity to disclose any such event, they are covered up. Dagger and cloak. As I said before, there's a wall of stars without names in Langley for the fallen, and that is there, without names, for a reason.

Lastly, would SS family publicly come forward when she first disappeared? There are no covert assets working for governments without the knowledge of their next of kin. Even in cases that such operatives cannot disclose what they do, they use covers such as working for Department of Agriculture. Is there even such a cover in SS case? Not that we're aware of.

If sleuthers seriously would consider SS as an intel asset, then they would do well to consider me as Bruce Wayne and Batman.

Alp

I'm getting really frustrated, because you keep writing these long things about why SS wouldn't have been involved in undercover operations, or been a spy, or been CIA. But you are misreading follow up post and not applying them to context. NO ONE IS SAYING SARAI IS A SPY, NO ONE!!!!!

That is not what we were discussing as a theory yesterday. Go back a few pages read through what all the things you are quoting are based off of, because you are making points no one was saying anything contrary about. Again NO ONE SAID SARAI WAS A SPY!

 

[citizenofworld]

There is no singular cut off age for obligatory military service. It all depends on your education.

Ziya appears to be a high school graduate. Accordingly, upon graduation from high school, he would have the option to defer his military service by two years, during which he could prepare for central college exams. Failing to get himself into college, he would be unable to defer it any further and serve for 15 months.

But Ziya is well above 30, and he might have served for 18 months instead of 15. Service time for high school graduates was shortened from 18 to 15 during the last decade.

What makes you believe Ziya is a high school graduate? His brother said he didn't even complete a year of school. And his brother doesn't seem well educated either.

 

[Chewy]

Yes we do.

Americans here before correctly analyzed that from Ziya family interviews, his relations with his brother are stained and only with his mother he has a healthy relationship.

Both Ziya's mother and brother already stated he is unstable and naive.

Add to that, we know that his brother said Ziya previously held a regular job and was living in an apartment in Istanbul, rented by him for Ziya.

Ziya gave them all up to live the life of a derelict, scavenging and living in the streets. He isn't homeless because he had no other options, he is homeless by choice.

Does that appear like a sane guy to anybody here?

A common mistake I've observed here is assuming Ziya is normal and stable like most of the sleuthers here are.

It would be prohibitively hard for most to think like Ziya, getting into his shoes. Gazing into abyss is difficult, if not impossible.

Early on I had the theory of her getting mixed up in a crime by accident. (The drug mule theory) but I also considered a schizophrenic random attack.

Obviously the man has issues as demonstrated by his actual family and not arm chair psychoanalysis of a complete stranger online. Usually when someone has a mental issue and can't be contained "something" finally happens like this.

There have been many many issues like this in the US. Two that come to mind is the man that pushed the woman in front of the train and the man that smashed a woman in the face with a brick.


http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=94715&page=1

Here's just one example:

http://radaronline.com/exclusives/2013/01/subway-attack-philadelphia-man-throws-woman-tracks-video/

Z is obviously mentally ill. There's no need at all to turn this into a cloak and dagger game.

 

[citizenofworld]

Z has already told everyone at home that he is 'only has 6 months' to live: meaning, i suppose that if he does not show up again, they will know what happened.
So he will change his identity, maybe several times, using id's from others in the civil unrest.

If he really only had 6 months to live, then he wouldn't be too worried about the light murder sentences in Turkey. He might even get medical leave like the U.S. Embassy bomber...

 

[ThinkHard]

This elaborate theory would be blown and over in about two hot seconds the minute Sarai opened her mouth and spoke with a NY accent instead of a Turkish accent don't you think.

Or do you think that they'd torture her and press her to speak thinking she's pretending not to speak Turkish?

This isn't a Hollywood movie where foreigners all speak English with accents. They would instantly know she wasn't the other woman.

Also there's no confusion about him not taking the jewelry because he just didn't care about the jewelry, just because you are well versed in gold troy ounce prices and whatnot doesn't mean Z was. He obviously cared enough to take the electronics and leave the jewelry behind. Not a big mystery. It isn't as if he left a diamond bracelet on her.

Also if Z was well known in the neighborhood which seems to be the case it could well be that the vendors wouldn't have dealt with him because they knew he was a homeless garbage picker. IOW everything he'd bring to them was stolen merchandise.

There's a huge difference in looking the otherway and not asking questions about jewelry sold and knowing full well that the person who is selling the pieces stole them. That would be very bad business for a vendor.

I feel that the jewelry wasn't taken is a non issue.


Also to another issue regarding TK that someone raised, "why didn't he meet her." The woman was married and had sex with him. Perhaps he got worried about this coming back and being a problem and so he just wanted to cut ties with her for this reason. Also maybe the idea that she went to Amsterdam and slept on that man's couch without really knowing him, freaked out TK and he thought of her as a little trashy after that and just didn't want to be seen with her again.

Who's to say the other woman was Turkish? Maybe she was an American spy they were looking for, maybe she was Russian....also I'm just saying, im pretty sure spies are versed in many languages and accents.

 

[SANDOVAL]

If I was an Intel guy myself, it would all depend on circumstances. Formal authorization and the condition of Aston Martin DB9 I'd drive regularly come to my mind. And of course, a good day of gambling in my tuxedo, resulting in loss of money also would effect my temper and my decision to disclose any such information.

All joking aside, even if CIA wanted to conduct an op in Istanbul without the knowledge of Turkish Intelligence, it would be extremely unwise to use SS as an asset.

She has a very extensive online presence. She doesn't know the local language. She doesn't have any prior experience abroad. Hardly asset material.

Turkey is not Cold War era Soviet Union. Foreigners arriving are not scrutinized in such way. Any cover story necessitating an online presence like SS had would be completely unnecessary. A more subtle cover like a travelling businessman, or a tourist without an extensive online presence would work.

Add to that, there is nothing of Intelligence value in the areas SS has been.

SS was not a CIA asset. Clandestine service does not use amateurs for abroad undercover assignments.

Since persistence on SS being an Intel asset is still strong, I will add that there were only two CIA assets uncovered in Turkish history that were operating without Turkish Intelligence authorization and knowledge. Both were high ranking MIT officers, passing on high-level intelligence to CIA. The reason is quite simple, Turkey is already a strong US ally, which historically was a frontline NATO state bordering Soviet Union directly. CIA does not need to conduct undercover intel ops for low-level information.

Signals intelligence, which falls under US military and NSA is a different story. US actively conducts SIGINT operations even against it's most trusted allies. However, since HUMINT assets and work are largely irrelevant to that area, there is no need for consideration.

This is very interesting: but i was referring to the red shirt drowned lady.
'Spy' is maybe not a good word, i don't know, but a 'foreign agent' could work for any country without being CIA.