Well the phone not pinging after the 2:57 text is interesting, because it implies that someone shut it off. So in your scenario, Ali would have been the one to do that, presumably so her mom could not find her - did she have an iPhone and was find my iphone a thing in 2010? No idea. OR: someone abducted her in a crime of opportunity, and grabbed her phone and shut it off. It seems to me that in scenario #1, police would have a lot more to go on - surely they would have investigated this older guy, and searched his phone? At least, that's what SHOULD have happened... we all know these missing girls investigations only get attention if someone on LE believes they are endangered and not just a runaway.