RSBM for focus.
I want to go back to the targeted vs. interrupted burglary discussion for a moment. I just cannot reconcile what we know with a burglary or B&E scenario. Yes, it could be exactly that. I am not ruling it out, and if you tell me that it could have been, I won't disagree with you. Here's why I find that situation unlikely.
- According to what we have heard and what GS just wrote, MB was killed very shortly after she entered the building. The situation escalated quickly. If this was a burglary or B&E scenario, why would SP have killed MB? SP had a gun, and MB did not. SP was larger in stature than MB, and if this was a random encounter, SP would not have known MB was fit. Why would SP have felt threatened, and why would that have resulted in him killing MB? If MB felt threatened, she would have likely wanted to retreat to her vehicle to get her gun before confronting SP, but she never had that opportunity.
- SP would have not been worried about MB recognizing him. His identity was concealed, and his likeness was already caught on security footage.
- I am hard pressed to believe that MB would have been an aggressor in this situation. She was where she was supposed to be, and this strange man appeared. Would her immediate reaction been to attack him? If not, why did SP go on the offensive and so quickly?
- SP appears to be comfortable handling many tools/weapons/accessories.... the pry bar/hammer, the gun, the head lamp, the police vest, the balaclava, and so on. To an ordinary citizen, all of those things would have been fairly cumbersome. And when it mattered, SP was able to access his gun... even with MB putting up a fight. This points to someone who is comfortable around guns or has training. And people who have training or experience with guns are able to show restraint and use the least amount of force necessary (i.e. simply drawing a weapon rather than using it).
- I appreciate NIN's thoughts of fight, flee, or freeze. However, given that SP had the upper hand (size and armed), why did he feel the need to kill MB, especially in the commission of a small crime? I cannot imagine what MB would have done, especially in light of the creepy messages, to warrant SP feeling like he had to kill her. If SP wanted, I am sure he could have fled..... even if after momentarily freezing.
- While I admit burglary can escalate into murder, it doesn't fit the situation. How often does petty theft (looking for a couple hundred dollars) or a casual trespassing case escalate to murder in a commercial setting? If this was a residential setting, the possibility goes up. If this was a bank heist that went awry, I can see it happening. But if BG is just out for a stroll and looking for pocket change, murder does not seem to follow.
- All of the broken glass was near the NE corner... out of MB's sight when she entered. Coincidence? Perhaps.
- And MB's attack was off camera. This could have just been luck, but if so, this perp got really lucky when it mattered most.
It is not one thing for me. It's the totality of the circumstances. And I admit that #7 and #8 are really weak arguments, but they are still part of what we know. If SP was there to make sure MB did not escape, all of those questions have easy answers.
I think at this point, Team Targeted and Team Untargeted are pretty well entrenched in their respective positions. It doesn’t seem that anybody is going to persuade many people to change sides. Most know that I lean toward Untargeted. That is just my opinion.
A lot of your points really boil down to, “Why would this person have killed Missy when they didn’t have to?” I think that is the number one go-to argument that Targeted proponents make. But doesn’t that also apply to the other side? Even if this person had it in for Missy specifically, why KILL her? Why not exact that revenge in some other way such as public humiliation, getting her fired from her job, contacting her husband, or even coming to this church in disguise and beating the hell out of her but still let her live?
I think maybe the thing to keep in mind here is that you and I are rational people thinking rational thoughts. But this murder was an irrational act, committed by someone whose thought process told them it was okay to break into a house of worship that they had no business being in. So I think it’s always going to be a mistake to let our theories of motive be guided by whether or not SP did the “right” thing in the moment. Nothing about what they did from beginning to end was “right”.
Some specific points: you say all the glass was out of sight. Well, it’s on the N and NE sides because that is what is most obscured from the road. And SP left doors standing wide open, so that sort of negates being worried about appearances.
The attack being off-camera. I still don’t get what is lucky about that. But considering she walked in at the SW and there are the two cameras there but none at the NW or SE, the only places the murder COULD have been on camera were between the entrance and the purplish table, or between the entrance and the first couple of rooms on the south hallway.
To your point about escalation to murder in commercial burglaries, I would guess it’s rare for the commercial burglar to encounter someone. If there are security guards, it’s a no-go. Alarm system, it’s a no go. Seems like they mitigate the risk so that confrontation isn’t an issue. In this case, obviously, who would have ever thought someone would walk into a church h prior to 4:30 am? It’s not like they had a 24-hour prayer room.
You’re also unnecessarily downplaying the reality of burglary when you refer to SP going for a “stroll” and “looking for pocket change”. In the burglary study I posted earlier in this thread which I don’t think anyone read, it talks about why burglars burgle. Very often they are in desperate situations. They’re unemployed. They may have an addiction where they are driven by a physical dependence to finance it. Often they are in need of hard cash. To this person, a rural good-sized church on a Sunday night right after offerings were made could be an attractive target. So I’m not sure why you think it “doesn’t fit the situation”.
As for SP being comfortable around guns... who knows. Maybe she was shot precisely because SP was inexperienced with them. Maybe the gun went off unintentionally. And I don’t necessarily see a comfort level with the outfit, either. A hammer doesn’t take much comfort. The pry bar didn’t work out too well in the only footage of it we saw. Many have made fun of the way the hammer is swung.
One more possibility to throw out here in response to “why would SP kill her?” It could have been untargeted but then Missy could have recognized SP because Missy knew a lot of people. Or it might have been enough for SP to THINK Missy recognized her.
As I said, I don’t think anyone is going to convince someone who has already formed an opinion. But I still think these intellectual thought exercises are useful to us all.
ETA: By the way, this church does have some history of burglary. Prior to Missy’s murder a trailer was stolen from the parking lot. And then last year, someone stole a charger that was used to charge the golf cart battery (those things are expensive).