UK - Ashley Dale, 28 fatally shot at home, Liverpool - 21 Aug 2022

DNA Solves
DNA Solves
DNA Solves
15:10JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Police find Ashley​

The statement of Sergeant Glen Whitfield will be read into the record now.
Sgt Wilson also attended the scene.
Mr Greaney reads the statement: “The property was an end terrace house, adjoined with an alleyway. The main centre panel (of the door) had been forced through, causing damage and allowing entry. I entered through the open space and activated by body worn camera. Constable Sinnott was coming down the stairs. He told me the property was empty.
“I walked through the narrow hallway. I could see what I believed to be bullet holes. The holes were mainly high above the door frame height. I noticed bullet casings strewn around the floor. I could see Constable Bratt providing CPR to Ashley Dale on the yard floor. I could immediately see a wound to the abdomen which was bleeding.”
Her phone was “a couple of feet away” on the ground.
“There were no other persons present, visible to me, at this time.
“I assisted in administering CPR while awaiting paramedics to arrive.
“The weather had been wet throughout the night and there was a sudden heavy downpour.”
Ms Dale was taken inside in order to “prevent hypothermia”.
“I became aware there was a small dog which had been placed in its cage in the living room.
“Due to the inclement weather I took the decision to remove the mobile phone to ensure it was protected.”
He placed the phone on the kitchen worktop.
Sergeant Whitfield noted “several large bullet holes above the bed” in the master bedroom.
The jury are shown pictures of these bullet holes.
“There didn’t seem to be any signs of blood or injury inside this room.
“The bullets had not penetrated the wall from the next room.
“The living room appeared to have been in use immediately beforehand.”
The officer states that the TV was on, and there was a drink on the side.
“There was a white Volkswagen T Roc parked outside the premises.
“PNC checks were requested and revealed Ashley Dale to be the owner.
“Slash marks to three of the tyres were apparent.
“Paramedics removed Ashley Dale by stretcher to a nearby ambulance.”
Ms Dale was taken to Aintree Hospital.
She was later pronounced dead at 1.57am.
“There were no signs of any other persons injured nearby or hiding.”
Ashley Dale’s iPhone was then seized as an exhibit.

 
15:24JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Moment Ashley is found after shooting​

The next witness, PC Darren Bratt, is now called to give evidence from the witness box.
He attended the scene at Leinster Road alongside PC Sinnott and PC Rowlands.
Mr Greaney asks: “What was the first thing you noticed about 40 Leinster Road?”
DB: “The front door of the address had been forced open.”
The court is shown photographs of the front door
PG: “What did you do at that stage?”
DB: “I activated my bodyworn camera and shouted inside the address for someone to make themselves known.”
PC Bratt says he received no reply and then entered the house with his colleagues.
He says he was the officer who entered first while PC Sinnott went “up the stairs”, because he was “equipped with a taser”
DB: “We didn’t know if anyone was in the address or not.?”
PG: “What did you do?”
DB: “I noticed that the rear door was open, so I went to check.”
PG: “As you stepped inside the house, were you aware of anything in the room to your right?”
DB: The living room…I heard voices coming from inside the room.”
PG: “What did you do in response?”
DB: “I popped my head in. I could see no one was present. It was the television that was on. It was then I noticed the rear door was open.”
PG: “You could see through the door into the kitchen that the back door was open. Was that something you struggled to see?”
DB: “No I could see quite clearly.”
PC Bratt says the hallway was “dark”.
PG: “If a person was there, would you have been able to see them?”
DB: “I would have been able to see them, yes.”
PG: “In the dining room, what was visibility like?PG
DB: “It was brighter, you could see the room clearly.
PG: “Did you then move into the kitchen?”
DB: “Yes.”
PG “What was the visibility like in there?”
DB: “It was very clear.”
PG: ““Did you go to the back door?”
DB: “Yes.”
PG: “Did you discover that there was a back yard?”
DB: “There was yes.”
PG: “We are not going to be showing footage of the back yard, because that is where you discovered Ashley and performed CPR. We are going to show you the body worn footage up until that point in time.”
The footage is played to the court.
The officer agrees that the video is an “accurate representation of visibility” inside the property.
PC Bratt is asked what he saw when he went outside.
He says: “Upon initially stepping out the first thing I did notice was a peachy coloured pedal style bin. Tin, it appeared to be. It was stood upright. From there, it was Ashley Dale lying on the floor. Well, a female lying on the floor.”
He says she was “approximately half a metre” from the bin.
“To the right hand side of the bin was a grey mop pocket. Leaning against the house was a set of step ladders. They were all upright.”
PG “Could you describe where Ashley was?”
DB: “To the left side of the bin, that’s where Ashley Dale’s head was positioned. The head was positioned towards the garden wall.”
He says Miss Dale was “on her back”.
DB: “There appeared to be a small puncture wound to her stomach.
“She appeared to be unconscious.”
“I shouted to see if I could get a response, but I didn’t get any. I’ve shouted then for colleagues to come to the rear. A couple of seconds later, Constable Rowlands came in the rear garden.”
PC Rowlands checked for a pulse but was unable to find one.
PC Bratt says he “checked her back for any further injuries” and “discovered another puncture wound to her back as well”.
DB: “I initially thought that she’d been stabbed. My thinking did develop, as I was conducting CPR I heard an update that there were bullet casings in the address.”
Ms Dale was later moved into the kitchen, where CPR continued, before she was escorted in an ambulance.
PC Bratt accompanied her as she was taken to hospital and continued to assist with performing CPR.
Mr Greaney has no further questions.

15:30JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Officer 'would not need torch to see colleagues' in Ashley's house​

Mr Pratt will now cross examine PC Bratt on behalf of James Witham.
RP: “Your bodyworn camera, does it have a light attached to it?”
DB: “No."
“RP: You were carrying a torch when you entered. And it was a powerful torch.
DB: “Erm, yeah."
RP: “You and your colleagues all had torches did you not?"
DB: “I know I had mine activated. I can’t remember if my colleagues had theirs activated."
RP: “We can see on the footage, when you first went into the front living room the door was ajar and you had to push it open to look inside didn’t you?"
DB: “I can’t recall."
Mr Pratt asks for the footage to be played.
RP: “I don’t think I pushed it open. I think I just peered my head in.”
Mr Pratt has no further questions.
Mr Greaney has a few more. He says: “As you were in that hallway, would you have needed that torch to see a person if a person was there?”
DB: “No.”
He says the same when asked about the dining room and kitchen.
There are no further questions for PC Bratt.

 
15:53JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Number plates pictured online​

Alex Langhorn, junior counsel for the prosecution, will now read a statement from a Daniel Matthews.
He was previously the owner of a Hyundai i30 car which he bought on July 21, 2021.
On June 6 2022, he advertised the car for sale on Facebook marketplace and Gumtree for £25,000.
This was listed with pictures of the car which showed the number plates.
The price was later reduced to £23,750.
The vehicle “usually remained in the Warrington area”, including on August 19 and 20.
On the afternoon of August 21, the car was driven from Warrington to Wigan before making the return journey.
The vehicle was sold to the branch of Arnold Clark at Gemini Retail Park in Warrington on August 30.

 
16:02JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Vehicle used in shooting 'had plates from different car'​

That concludes the statement. Mr Langhorn recalls Detective Sergeant Graeme Sutton to help take the jury through the sequence of events.
Jurors are shown an automatic number plate recognition (ANPR) hit for a Hyundai car bearing the number plate SC19CPU on August 21.
AL: “We’ve just heard the owner of the vehicle bearing that plate is Daniel Matthews. Did enquiries reveal whether that was his car that passed his camera?”
GS: “That was not his vehicle.”
AL: “Was it a Hyundai?”
GS: “Yes.”
AL: “But not the one that should be bearing that plate?”
GS: “That is correct.”
The vehicle was caught on CCTV cameras on Childwall Lane, Pilch Lane and Page Moss Lane with this footage being played to the court.
Peers’ mobile phone is said to be cell siting in areas close to these ANPR hits and CCTV cameras at the relevant times.
Zeisz’ Mercedes is captured by ANPR in the Aigburth area travelling northbound towards Dingle in the early afternoon.
Peers attempts to call him before speaking on the phone to his girlfriend Phoebe Birch.
Peers then attempts to call Barry, and subsequently speaks to Michael Kershaw.
Fitzgibbon and Zeisz’ phones are then cell siting in the area of the former’s home at around 12.30pm.
Zeisz calls Peers shortly afterwards.

 
16:17JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Fitzgibbon books flight​

Mr Langhorn reads an agreed fact to the jury.
He says that, at 1.28pm on August 21, Claudia Fitzgibbon made a booking for a ticket for an Emirates flight from Birmingham to Dubai on August 22 in Ian Fitzgibbon’s name.
This was later amended, using a phone call, to a flight on August 23.
CCTV shown to the court, captured at around 1.45pm on August 21, now shows Michael Kershaw knocking on the door of the Pilch Lane flat before returning from the direction in which he came.
Shortly before 3pm, Zeisz’s Mercedes activates an ANPR camera in Roby travelling northbound towards M62. An image from the ANPR camera shows there is also a “large male in the passenger seat”.
Mr Kershaw had attempted to call Barry “a few minutes earlier”.
The Hyundai, with cloned number plates, arrives in the St Helens area at 15.23.
The phones of Peers, Zeisz and Fitzgibbon are shown to be inactive around this time.
A map plots ANPR hits for the Hyundai on this afternoon, as well as an address linked to Kallum Radford on Redgate Drive in St Helens.
Another map shows a taxi journey from Redgate Drive in St Helens, in “close proximity to where the Hyundai was recovered on Waring Avenue”, to Peers’ street - Woodlands Road in Roby.
Mr Langhorn reads an agreed fact, detailing how the booking was made with Britannia Taxis.
The caller did not give their name, with the £28.70 fare paid in cash.
A black Audi is then seen parked on Pilch Lane.
Mr Kershaw exits the car, knocks on the door of the flat then leaves
At 15.47, Dillon Cain places two phone calls to Mr Kershaw.
The latter is cell siting in the L14 area..
Shortly after 5pm, Raford attempts calls to Peers.
At 5.24, Barry - who is cell siting in the L14 area - makes a phone call to Mr Kershaw.
At 5.30pm, Mr Kershaw, Bary, Fitzgibbon and Zeisz are seen entering the Pilch Lane flat.
DS Sutton confirms this is after Fitzgibbon has booked his flight to Dubai.

 
16:33JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Defendants in shop​

The jury hears at 5.53pm, Barry makes a 32-second phone call to a Charlie Lee Abbott while cell siting in the L14 area.
At 6.12pm, he makes a 45 second phone call to David McCaig.
Seven minutes later, Fitzgibbon is seen leaving the flat.
He is seen approaching a black Volkswagen Golf before returning to the apartment.
His sister Claudia Fitzgibbon’s phone is cell siting in this area around this time.
At 6.23pm, Sean Zeisz messages Liv McDowelll to ask: “Where are you?”
He then rings a taxi.
Ms McDowell replies: “Just having my tea.”
Zeisz then messages her: “We’re”
The taxi driver then calls Zeisz, with both cell siting in the same area.
CCTV shows Zeisz leaving Pilch Lane in a taxi “around an hour or so after he’s arrived”.
GS: “He appears to be carrying bags.”
Mr Kershaw visits the Go Local store and buys several items before returning to the flat.
He is seen taking “kitchen roll and cleaning products”, including Domestos bleach and Flash, to the till as well as five bottles of water.
A shop assistant places the items in blue carrier bags, which Mr Kershaw leaves with after seemingly paying with cash.
At 6.55pm, Fitzgibbon goes to the same shop before returning to the flat after two minutes.
He is shown on CCTV taking a can of drink from a fridge to the till, as well as selecting a bar of chocolate.
At 7.06pm, a silver Mercedes pulls up on Pilch Lane.
Fitzgibbon, Barry and Mr Kershaw enter the car.
The latter two are carrying bags.
Zeisz, who was driving a silver Mercedes at the time, is now cell siting in the area.
That concludes today’s proceedings. Justice Goose asks the jury to return tomorrow morning. Thanks for following our live updates, we will return with further coverage from 10.30am tomorrow.

 
I'm amazed how well Prosecution is prepared :)

These criminals left a trail just to pick up by Police.

Everything was recorded.
Cctv, messages.
Wow!

I'm following this case sporadically,
I simply have no heart to read all these reports - sorry!
But what I see, amazes me.

I'm only waiting for the sentences for all defendants!

Justice for the innocent victim!!!
 
10:43JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Firearms expert called to give evidence​

Paul Greaney, KC, prosecuting calls the first witness of the day, Andre De Villiers Horne, to give evidence.
He has been a forensic firearms scientist for “approaching 40 years” who has examined “more than three-and-a-half thousand firearms” during his career.
He confirms his qualifications and that he has given evidence relating to firearms “all around the world”.

 
10:54JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Expert explains how guns work​

Mr Greaney asks: “You are here to assist us with the circumstances in which Ashley Dale was killed. In this case, were you given information by the police about the basic facts at a very early stage?”
Mr Horne replies: “Yes that is correct.”
PG: “Were you then asked to attend the scene?”
AH: “Yes.”
He confirms his duties included “assisting the police with the location of fired ammunition components”, “helping them to find cartridges and parts of cartridges” and “interpreting the physical evidence and providing an opinion as to what happened”.
Mr Horne attended the scene shortly before 10am August 21.
He shows the jury a plastic model of a cartridge.
Mr Horne says a cartridge contains four components
He says these include the projectile, which is called the bullet, then a cartridge case, which houses the other components, a primer, and “propellent or gunpowder to drive the bullet”.
He explains that the primer contains a small amount of explosive, which ignites when the primer is struck by the hammer of the firearm. The primer then ignites the propellant, which creates a huge increase in pressure which in turn drives the bullet down the barrel of the gun towards the target the shooter is aiming at.
Mr Greaney asks: “It has been determined that the weapon used to kill Ashley Dale was a Skorpion machine pistol?”
AH: “Yes.”
PG: “I’m going to ask you to hold up and explain such a weapon in a moment. Can you describe the difference between a machine gun and a gun that is not a machine gun?”
AH: “Firearms come in different configurations, types and firing modes. You get handheld firearms, pistols. You get shoulder held pistols, rifles or guns, shotguns for example. Pistols can be designed to discharge single shots. You would need to remove the cartridge case and insert a fresh cartridge manually by hand. Or you can have a number of cartridges contained within the firearm so you can discharge more than one shot and fire several times.”
He says a semi automatic pistol would allow a firer to “keep on pulling the trigger, and every time you pull the trigger a discharge will occur” and it “would load a fresh cartridge”.
He says for the purposes of war, it was considered advantageous to create a weapon that fired multiple shots with one pull of the trigger, and that is how machine guns or sub-machine guns were developed.
AH: “The moment you add the term machine, if you pull the trigger it will keep on firing until you release the trigger.”

 
11:03JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Skorpion machine pistol held up in court​

Mr Greaney asks: “How was it that it was determined the gun used was a Skorpion machine pistol?”
Mr Horne answers: “When firearms are designed, you’ve got a set of design features. The blueprints of the gun. The Skorpion machine pistol gun has an interesting feature which is unique. That is, it has two ejector prongs which is unique to Skorpions. It ejects its cartridge cases from the top.”
“Here, there were many cartridges discovered. And an examination of those showed features characteristic of being ejected by a Skorpion machine pistol.”
Mr Horne is asked to explain how a Skorpion works.
PG: “Is the Skorpion a new weapon or a long established weapon?"
AH: “It’s been around for a good number of years. The Skorpion Machine Pistol was designed in 1959 and put into production in 1961. That’s when it first appeared and it’s been produced ever since.”
Mr Horne is asked to show a Skorpion machine gun to the jury.
P: “You can use that to illustrate the various aspects of your evidence.”
Mr Horne holds up the weapon with his right hand.The jury are told the gun is a real weapon that has been decommissioned. The gun is black and has a brown handle.
AH: “What we have here is a Skorpion Machine Pistol. The Skorpion Machine Pistol is magazine fed.”
He shows the magazine, which holds the cartridges, and attaches it to the magazine well of gun, with an audible click.
AH: “The machine pistol also has a stock that folds over the top. If it is your preference you could either fire it just from the hand or you could bring the stock into your shoulder and fire it from a shoulder position for more control. It has a selector switch, which has got three settings.
“They are indicated by a zero, a one and a 20. When it is on zero, that is on safe.
That would block any movement of the trigger. If you move the switch the one, it would be capable of firing single shots. You would have to pull the trigger for each discharge. If you move the selector switch to 20, that is the mode where it fires in fully automatic mode. If you held down the trigger it would keep on firing until you release the trigger or run out of ammunition.”
Mr Horne says the magazines “come in different configurations”.
The one he has in his hand holds “10 or 30 shots”.
PG: “The shooter could have with him another magazine that would be inserted.”
AH: “Once you run out of ammunition in one magazine you could quickly release it and take another, insert it and carry on shooting.”
Mr Horne shows the jury the “ejection port” on the top of the weapon, where cartridge cases are ejected from.
PG: “If the gun is in fully automatic mode how quickly are rounds discharged?”
AH: “The Skorpion Machine Pistol is designed to discharge cartridges at a rate of 850 to 900 rounds per minute. It is between 14 and 15 rounds per second. If you keep the trigger pressed for one second, 14 to 15 rounds will come out of the muzzle of this gun.”

11:16JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Cartridges 'may have been moved by footfall'​

Mr Greaney says he will “turn to Mr Horne’s examination of 40 Leinster Road”.
He asks for a floorplan of the address to be shown to the jury.
PG: “This is showing the layout of the ballistic evidence, cartridges and cartridge fragments recovered from the ground floor of 40 Leinster Road. You attended the scene on the morning of August 21, just over nine hours after the killing had occurred. Did you notice the front door had been forced in?”
AH: “Yes. The door frame was actually still intact. It was the centre panel that had been bashed in. That was lying in the hallway.
PG: “That was still there when you arrived, the panel?”
AH: “It was still there. It had been picked up by CSI staff and moved out of the way.”
PG:“Had some steps been taken to ensure you could undertake your work without disturbing forensic evidence at the scene?”
AH: “There were stepping plates laid out on the floor.”
The jury are shown examples of these metal plates, which are placed there by crime scene investigators so evidence is not disturbed by people walking through the area.
PG: “You were able to carry out your examination?”
AH: “Yes.”
PG: “One of the reasons why these plates were there was to preserve footwear impressions. There were footwear impressions of Mr Witham on the ground and first floor. Did you identify a fired 9mm short cartridge on the doormat near the front door.”
AH: “Yes that’s correct. 9mm reference to the diameter of the bullet. The barrel of the gun and the projectile it fires is 9mm. You get different cartridge case configurations in a specific calibre. In 9mm you have different lengths of cartridge cases. This has a length of 17mm. Those cartridge cases are referred to as 9mm short, because there are ones that are longer than that. Skorpion sub-machine guns were designed to discharge cartridges of 7.65mm. As time went on, they started manufacturing them to discharge a range of 9mm cartridges.”
He says “identical” cartridges were found in the wall in the hallway, near the door to the living room, in the hallway opposite the living room door, and another In a similar position.
PG: “Where a shot is fired, ultimately the bullet is going to hit something. Sometimes, may the bullet hit something else on the way to where it rests?”
AH: “Yes of course. When they strike something else prior to striking the surface where it comes to rest, we call that an intermediate target. It will either go through or skip off an intermediate target. Where it skips off, we call that a ricochet. It will leave a mark and a subsequence mark where it actually stops.”
PG: “Within the hallway, were there evidence of impact marks or ricochet?”
AH: “I didn’t find any impact or ricochet marks in the hallway. I requested the carpet on the stairs to be lifted to be sure there aren’t any impact marks hidden by the carpet. I was informed there were no impact marks on the stairs at the bottom end of the hallway either.”
He says there were four cartridges “in the hallway near the door” and if the gun was fired near there
AH: “When cartridge cases are ejected, they might strike things depending on the orientation the gun is held. You could potentially turn the gun sideways, in which case they would eject to the left or the right. In the confines of a room they might strike walls or ceilings, bounce from there and come to rest somewhere in that room. If you have a lot of foot traffic, when people initially attend the scene and don’t know what is going on they may actually unintentionally transport or kick cartridge cases away from the positions they landed. They may not still be in that location they landed but moved before the scene is secured.”
PG: “We see cartridges distributed from the front door, through the dining room and into the kitchen. Is the finding of cartridges in the hallway consistent with the proposition the gunman, James Witham, started to discharge the firearm just inside the house?”
AH: “Not necessarily. That cartridge case may have been kicked over there by footfall. I would have to find an impact in the hallway. If I don’t, I have to assume that case was discharged in close proximity to where it was found, but may have been moved by footfall.”

 
11:32JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Bullet impacts in Ashley's home​

Mr Greaney says: “Let’s move on to the dining room. As we can see from the plan, no cartridges were found in the living room itself. The dining room is to the right. Did you examine that room?”
Mr Horne replies: “Yes. We did make a brief examination of the living room for impact marks but did not find any. We moved on to the dining room.”
PG: “There was a line of sight from the dining room doorway into the kitchen?”
AH: “Yes.”
PG: “In the dining room did you find bullet impact marks?”
AH: “There were a number of impact marks in the dining room. There were also ricochet marks in the dining room.”
The jury are shown photographs of the scene.
PG: “We can see the door panel there on the floor. We’ve now moved inside the hallway. There is a view of the staircase and the opposite view.”
There are markers showing the locations of four cartridge cases found in the hallway.
Mr Horne explains that in some cases multiple impact marks are caused by the same bullet ricocheting off a surface on its way to where it ultimately ends up. These are marked by investigators using letters and numbers. For example, if bullet A strikes two surfaces, the impact marks would be marked ‘A’ and ‘A1’.
PG: “We see the door leading into the dining room from the hallway. Against the wallpapered wall there are two ricochet marks. On the second photograph, you can also see the relation of those impact marks with the impact marks against a wall. A1 is where that bullet has ended up. We see two together. We see A, a bullet striking its way on a wall to A1 where there is a bullet sized mark. Ultimately we’re going to interpret all of this. At the moment I’m just going to ask you what you found. We see A and A1 in the dining room.”
AH: “B was a ricochet off that wallpapered wall.”
PG: “B1 was above the doorway, leading to the kitchen?”
AH: “That’s correct, yes.”
PG: “We can see the damage that bullet has caused to the wall on the way to where it ended up?”
AH: “That’s correct.”
PG: “C, there is no C1. Is C just where the third bullet has ended up above that doorway?”
AH: “Yes that’s correct. C was a direct strike. It struck the wall above the kitchen doorway just under A1 and B1.”
PG: “What was D?”
AH: “D was another bullet impact mark on the wall, just to the right of the kitchen doorway. That was a direct strike. It was caused by a bullet.”
PG: “No ricochet on its way to the right hand side of the door?”
AH: “No.”
PG: “E please, can you explain that?”
AH: “E is incorrectly marked. It should be E1. I found a ricochet mark on the floor which I associate with that impact. That bullet had penetrated into the wall and was subsequently recovered by CSI personnel at the scene.”
PG: “We can see where you have marked a ricochet, E, before the bullet has ended up, E1.”
Mr Horne confirms this.
PG: “Where we have a ricochet mark on the floor, where was the barrel of the gun pointed at that time?”
AH: “The barrel of the gun would have been pointing directly at the ricochet mark. Over very short distances, we consider the trajectory to be a very straight line. A bullet that directly impacted the wall, that’s where the muzzle of the gun was pointing.” He explains the muzzle is the front part of the barrel where the bullet leaves the gun.
Mr Horne holds the Skorpion up and points to the muzzle.

11:39JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Shooter fired from 'dining room doorway or dining room itself'​

Mr Greaney continues: “Did you find some small marks on the ceiling above the impacts A1, B1 and C where fragments had struck the ceiling?”
Mr Horne replies: “Yes, that’s correct. Most often you would have bullets that are made of either lead or copper or a combination of led and copper. In this case we had bullets which had a copper alloy jacket. A jacket is exactly what you would deduce it to be, something that covers the central part which is called the core. The central bit filled with lead is what we refer to as the core. When the core and jacket are still attached to one another, we would call that a bullet. If they strike something and the bullet breaks up because of the impact, we would refer to them as fragments.”
PG: “Five ammunition components were found in the dining room?”
AH: “That’s correct.”
PG: “An impact damaged bullet was found. A fired 9mm short calibre cartridge of a different brand, Max Tech, was found between the kitchen floor and the hallway. An impact damaged fired bullet jacket was found between the hallway doorway and the kitchen doorway. An impact damaged fired bullet was found on the bench at the dining room table. A fired 9mm short calibre cartridge case of Sellier and Bello brand under the dining room table. A cartridge case of the same calibre but of the Max Tech brand under the dining room table. An identical cartridge against the rear wall, the wall shared with the kitchen. An impact damaged fired bullet under the dining room table. A fragment of lead core from a fired bullet against the wall opposite the hallway doorway. And a 9mm cartridge of the Sellier and Bello brand. More fragments were discovered by crime scene investigators.”
AH: “Against the kitchen wall, there were some items stacked there which we couldn’t move at the time. As the scene was cleared and all the footmark evidence, some of these items were moved, they found a number of small fragments which may have shattered off bullets during impact.”
PG: “Earlier I asked whether the gun had been discharged in the hallway. The defining feature was ricochet or impact marks. We have ricochet marks in the dining room. What does that indicate?”
AH: “My interpretation is that the shooter had either been standing in the doorway from the hallway or within the dining room itself.”

11:45KEY EVENT

'An important finding'​

Mr Greaney asks: “The jury is now well aware that the kitchen of Ashley’s home was at the rear of the house. Did you find bullet impact marks in the kitchen?”
Mr Horne replies: “Yes, I have.”
PG: “What was F?”
AH: “F was a ricochet mark on the tiled floor below the kitchen counter.”
PG: “Had the bullet perforated the plastic trim of the washing machine just above the floor?”
AH: “Yes. You can see the washing machine door is open. When bullets ricochet from surfaces they don’t come up at the same angle, they hug the surface they ricochet from. That bullet perforated the plastic trim at the bottom of the washer. It was subsequently recovered on the floor behind the washer.”
PG: “We can see that there is an F and an F1, it strikes the floor then hits the washing machine?”
AH: “That’s correct yes.”
PG: “We see G. What is G?”
AH: “G was a bullet impact against the tiled wall tiles just below the kitchen cabinet above the kitchen counter. It was a direct shot onto the wall tiles
PG: “Next H and H1. What were those please?”
AH: “H was a ricochet mark against the ceiling close to the back wall of the kitchen. The bullet struck the ceiling then penetrated that wall at H1. H1 is a hole in the wall in the plastered area, where the bullet had gone into the wall.”
PG: “We have an N but no I or J. Or K or L. Why is that?
AH: “There was another small bullet hole on one of the bar stools which we hadn’t found during our initial examination. We continued numbering bullet holes upstairs following the sequence we already had. When the hole in the barstool was found, that then followed the sequence we had upstairs.”
PG: “When we look upstairs, we will see those other letters. What was N?”
AH: “N was a bullet hole in the back seat rest of a bar stool standing at the kitchen counter. The bullet has perforated that and come to rest in the wooden framework of the chair.”
PG: “This is an important finding is it not?”
AH: “It is.”
PG: “There are four shots aren’t there? F, G, H and N. Is there any view about the direction of which those shots were fired?”
AH: “Approximately, all the shots in the kitchen and dining room had been fired in the same direction. I mean the same compass direction, not up or down. They were all more or less fired in the direction of the doorway. F, N, G and H had gone through the doorway and into the kitchen. They were fired through the doorway and had stopped in the kitchen.”
PG: “There are a number of ways in which a gun can be fired, randomly or at a target. Does this tend to favour one of those approaches in your view?
AH: “They’re all fired in the same direction, and I would favour the proposition that they were perhaps fired at a target as opposed to just randomly.”
The court will now take a short break, resuming at 12pm.

 
12:13JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Witham's DNA found on cartridge​

Mr Greaney says: “We were still on the ground floor in the kitchen. Within the kitchen, a number of fired ammunition components were found.”
AH: “Yes.”
PG: “First of all a fired 9mm short calibre cartridge case of the Max Tech brand which was under the counter. An impact damaged fired bullet by the rear kitchen door. An impact damaged fired bullet under the washing machine. An impact damaged fired bullet in the back rest of the chair. An impact damaged fired bullet in the rear wall.”
Mr Horne confirms those findings are correct.
He says the final bullet in the rear wall was the one that had “ricocheted from the ceiling.”
Mr Greaney says: “I’m going to move upstairs now.”
The jury are shown a plan of the upstairs of the house which has nine markers on it.
PG: “Did you find five bullet impact marks against the wall behind the bed?”
AH: “Yes that is correct.”
The court is shown pictures of these “impact marks” in the wall.
PG: “The bottom one you labelled I. Next up you labelled J. Then K, then L, then the very top one you labelled M. These are all impacts by bullets, the barrel of the gun having been pointed in those directions as the discharge occurred.”
Mr Horne agrees.
PG: “Also within the bedroom, did you discover fired ammunition components?”
AH: “Yes.”
PG: “First of all a fired 9mm short calibre cartridge case of the Sellier and Bello brand. An impact damaged fired bullet. Another impact damaged fired bullet. A fired 9mm short calibre cartridge case of the Max Tech brand. And a fired cartridge case of the same type exactly. Another cartridge, this time of the Sellier and Bello brand. An impact damaged fired bullet. An impact damaged fired bullet. An impact damaged fired bullet. And a fired 9mm short calibre cartridge of the Max Tech brand.” Mr Horne confirms these findings are correct.
PG: “And this isn’t evidence you can give but we will hear this afternoon. The DNA of James Witham was found on DB21 [ the exhibit number of one of the cartridges]. Mr Witham’s DNA found on one of the cartridges in the bedroom, a fired 9mm short calibre cartridge of the Max Tech brand.”

12:20KEY EVENT

Gunman 'moved between shots'​

Mr Greaney: “Just before we get to your interpretation and explanation. You will be able to confirm you attended the post mortem of Ashley Dale. You found injuries consistent with what you would expect from a 9mm short calibre bullet?”
Mr Horne says: “Yes.”
PG: “We’re turning now to your interpretation of what happened. Within the bedroom we’ve just looked at when you attended, was the bedding disturbed?”
AH: “I had a look at the bedding in the main bedroom, it wasn’t disturbed no?”
PG: “Had you been told the television in the living room was on?”
AH: “Yes.”
PG: “Did you form any view where Ashley Dale was?”
Mr Pratt rises and suggests this may not be a matter that falls into the area of firearms expertise.
Mr Greaney agrees to move on: “It’s perhaps a matter of common sense. I’m not suggesting Mr Horne doesn’t have common sense, but we’ll stick to his area of expertise. Let’s deal with downstairs. How many fired cartridge cases in total were there in the hallway dining room and kitchen.
AH: “There were 10 fired cartridge cases.”
Mr Greaney asks of the cartridges in the hallway: “Did you form any view whether they were resting from where they had been ejected?”
AH: “The ones closest to the doorway leading into the dining room could have been undisturbed. The ones closest to the front door were most likely transported there by footfall.
PG: “Within the dining room there were five fired cartridge cases. Within the kitchen was one fired cartridge case. Of the total number of shots that seem to have been fired, did many of them appear to have been fired in a particular direction?”
AH: “They were all fired approximately in the direction of the door leading in the direction of the kitchen from the dining room?”
PG: “Were you able to form any view about whether the gunman Mr Witham was in the same position as he fired all of those shots, or moving?”
AH: “I formed the view that there was movement between the shots, yes.”
PG: “Why was that?”
AH: “We have two shots against the wall between the dining room and the stairway, and those shots ricocheted off the wall.”

 
12:42JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Ashley Dale 'was shot in the kitchen' of her home​

Mr Greaney says: “You expressed the view that the gunman seemed to have been moving between shots. You tell us please why you have formed that view?”
Mr Horne replies: “We have shot A against the wall. If we assume the gunman adopted a normal shooting stance with his armed stretched out. That means he would have to be at least, and probably further, an arm’s length away from the mark against the wall labelled A. We have a shot that struck the ceiling in the kitchen, shot H. Then it ricocheted onto the wall at H1. I used equipment to determine what is the position that shooter would have to stand in order to point his arm at the ricochet mark. It was further forward than the mark A at the wall. There had clearly been movement.
PG: “Your view, based in part upon testing carried out at the scene, was that it was not possible for the gunman when he was in the position to cause the damage at A to also have caused the damage at H and H1?”
AH: “H and H1 would not have been visible. They would have been obscured by the top of the doorway.”
PG: “There has been movement between those two positions by the gunman so as to cause that damage?”
AH: “That is correct yes.”
PG: “You explained to us earlier why you considered the mechanism of the shooting was not random but targeted. Have you been able to form any view where the target was or where the target was moving?”
AH: “In my view the target would have been moving towards the kitchen and into the kitchen.”
PG: “Have you been able to form any view about where Ashley Dale appears to have been when she was shot?”
AH: “Ashley Dale had two gunshot wounds. She had an entry wound to the right side of her abdomen and an exit wound at her left lower back. During the post mortem, those wounds were documented and distances were measured. The exit wound was 170cm above her heel. The bullet hole in the bar stool that I’ve marked N, the entry hole was at the same height as the exit hole in Ashley Dale’s left lower back. It is entirely consistent with her standing next to that bar stool when the shot struck her. We also have a trajectory going through Ashley’s body and a trajectory inside the chair. The bullet entered the back of the seat rest and came to rest inside the wooden furniture in that chair. I was able to insert a trajectory probe.”
Mr Greaney asks him to pause so he can ensure everyone has understood.
PG: “The exit wound on Ashley’s body was at a similar height to the damage to the chair?”
AH: “Yes.”
PG: “And is consistent with her having been in that area at the time she is struck by the bullet?”
AH: “Yeah.”
PG: “You use the word trajectory. You’ve made an assessment of the trajectory as to whether this all fitted together. Obviously there is a tripod within the dining room which is nearer the door into the kitchen than the mark A.”
AH: “I have a tripod and on that tripod, the height of the top of that tripod is one and a half metres, the average shoulder point we use for the purposes of reconstruction.Of course we don’t know the shoulder height of the shooter. We use an average height of 1.5m. I attach a laser pointer to the tip of the trajectory probe. A trajectory is the flightpath of the bullet between being discharged and where it struck something. I directed my laser to be pointing exactly at the ricochet mark on the ceiling. I moved my tripod back and forwards until my laser cleared under the top of the doorframe to illuminate the ricochet mark on the ceiling. That told me that is the approximate position the shooter had been standing when he fired the shot which hit the ceiling.”
PG: “You helped us with where the shooter was at the time damage A was caused. We see where you believed the shooter was when the damage to the roof was caused, nearer to the door. We now see the tripod yet nearer to the door into the kitchen. Is this why your view is there had been movement by the shooter?”
AH: “Yes. We have two holes in the barstool. If I link the two holes I get a straight line. If I extend that straight line back towards the shooter and extend that line until it reaches a height of 1.5m I know where the shooter would have had to stand in order to reach that trajectory. I have it located in the position where I believed the shooter had been standing, assuming a shoulder height of 1.5m. If his height had been more, it could have been a few metres back. If he was shorter, it could have been a few inches forward. It was in that area.”
PG: “That is the area you believe the gunman, Mr Witham, was when he fired the shot that struck and killed Ashley?”
AH: “Yes. You can see the tripod. I have switched the laser round, pointing from the tripod towards the mark on that bar stool. They aligned.”
A piece of string was used to demonstrate the trajectory of the laser for the purposes of a photograph.
AH: “During our reconstruction I used a colleague and aligned the locations of entry and exit wounds on Ashley’s body with that trajectory. She would have been facing the kitchen door. She was on her way from inside the kitchen towards the kitchen door when that shot was fired. She had gone out that door and was found in the back garden.”
PG: “She has thereafter moved from that position towards the back yard and into the back yard?”
AH: “Yes, where I believe she was found. If I take all of this into consideration and interpret what I see, in my view that is the most likely position A had been standing when she was shot and the shooter was standing. I would expect the bullet to cause more damage to the barstool if it had not gone through an intermediate target first. Something must have reduced the velocity of the bullet. It is much more likely that is where Ashley had stood when the shot was discharged as opposed to anywhere else.”
Mr Horne, referring to the floor plan, explains that the door to the back yard was sideways on to the entrance of the dining room to the kitchen, meaning Ashley’s right side was facing towards the gunman and her back was facing the bar-stool at the time he believes she was shot.

12:48JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Gunman likely to have 'moved towards Ashley', says expert​

Mr Greaney says: “This afternoon we’re going to hear evidence from a forensic scientist about DNA findings in relation to that bullet in the back of the chair. You’ve obviously examined many bullets that have struck people in the past. Have you dealt with situations before when bullets have passed all the way through people?”
Mr Horne replies: “Yes I have.”
PG: “Have you come across cases when a person passes through a person and no DNA has been found on that bullet?”
Mr Horne says he has seen instances such as this.
AH: “It is not always the case that DNA from a victim is found on a bullet. What the exact reason is, I don’t know. I’m not a DNA scientist.”
PG: “In your opinion, Ashley is shot by the stool. Because she is discovered outside, injured, that would mean between being shot and being outside she has moved in that direction?”
AH: “Yes.”
PG: “That is Ashley’s direction of movement. In relation to the gunman, we know that if your opinion is correct there has been movement between the dining room near to the hallway and the kitchen doorway?”
AH: “That is physical evidence you can’t ignore.”
PG: “As a matter of theory, that bears two possibilities. One, the gunman is moving forward towards the doorway in the kitchen. The other is that he’s moving backwards. Both are theoretical possibilities. When you draw all of the evidence together, what is your expert opinion about what was happening?”
AH: “We know the gunman came through the front door because it had been bashed in and was lying in the hallway. The only escape route for Ashley, the only other door she could have exited the house, was the rear door. My explanation is she was moving towards the rear door. That was her only route of escape. If someone has bashed down your door and is firing you are not going to move towards them. I cannot exclude that possibility but I’m applying some logic. It is my view that Ashley’s movement was from wherever she was, most likely the living room where the television was on, she moved towards her only escape, which was the rear door, and the shooter had been following the same route. He had been firing the shots in the direction that Ashley was attempting to escape.”
PG: “The gunman is following the route she’s taking and discharging that machine pistol as he does so?”
AH: “In my view that is the most likely explanation yes.”
Mr Greaney says he has no further questions.

13:01JONATHAN HUMPHRIES

Possibility gunman could have been aiming to hit building 'cannot be excluded'​

Richard Pratt, KC, will now cross examine Mr Horne on behalf of James Witham.
RP: “As a firearms expert, can you say in which order shots were fired from the impact damage?”
AH: “No I can’t.”
RP: “Here we have apparently two episodes of shooting, upstairs and downstairs. You cannot say which came first.”
AH: “No. Theoretically, the shooter could have gone upstairs, fired one shot, gone back downstairs fired two shots.”
RP: “I’m not asking for ridiculous explanations. I’m not asking you for going up and downstairs. There is nothing from firearms expertise to counter the proposition that the gunman first went upstairs and fired the shots upstairs is there?”
AH: “No.”
RP: “Equally, when you find cartridge cases there is nothing to enable you to say that cartridge aligns with that impact damage?”
AH: “No.”
RP: “Or [that cartidge] to a bullet if you find a bullet?”
AH: “I cannot link cartridge cases to bullets, however when bullets sustain damage I can in a lot of cases link a specific bullet to a specific impact.”
RP: “You told us something about this firearm. It has dual mechanism. It can either be semi or fully automatic. Can you from looking at bullet impact damage say in which mode the firearm was.”
AH: “I would have to qualify my answer. If you have a gun firing in full auto mode at a rate of 15 shots per second, my expectation would be that the shots would be grouped fairly close together during a discharge. If one is firing the shots in single mode, my expectation would be they would be spread apart a lot further because there is time for the shooter to adjust the direction in which he is shooting.”
RP: “One of the neighbours described hearing two separate what she described as drilling sounds. Would a drilling sound be consistent with the weapon being in automatic mode.”
AH: “That’s difficult for me to judge that. Possibly, yes.”
RP: “To a lay person, if it was in semi automatic mode would somebody be expected to hear 14 shots?”
AH: “Yes I would expect a person listening to shots fired in single action mode to be able to discriminate between shots.”
RP: “If you had two episodes separated by seconds, drilling sounds, that would be indicative the firearm was in automatic mode?”
AH: “Yes I agree.”
RP: “Looking at the spread of bullets in the downstairs area, you’ve described these as being in the same general compass direction. If one looks at the position of the muzzle at that time, the muzzle must be moving from different locations.”
AH: “We definitely had the muzzle pointing to the floor in the dining room. We have ricochet marks against the wall between the dining room and stairwell. Then we have a shot against the ceiling in the kitchen. That spans a range of directions the muzzle was pointing.”
RP: “The muzzle is moving in a sort of an archway move potentially isn’t it?”
AH: “We’ve got two shots to the right hand side of the doorway, one on the floor and one on the doorway itself I can’t say in which order they went. Then we have shots that went through the kitchen doorway. One of them struck the ceiling, one of them struck the tiled surface, one of them struck the floor. In the kitchen we have floor, barstool, tiles, ceiling. I can’t really understand how you would form the view that is an arch.”
RP: “A swinging movement with a muzzle. Maybe not a perfect arch, but a swinging movement with the weapon in the hand.”
AH: “I could accept there was movement of the muzzle during the discharge of the shots.”
RP: “That would be a swift, a very swift movement, of the muzzle over that period of time.”
AH: “Yes, we have 15 shots per seconds.”
RP: “These are nine shots in the downstairs area.”
AH: “We are talking two thirds of a second.”
RP: “Somebody who is moving at the time, it’s a very quick movement indeed isn’t it?”
AH: “We have movement of the firearm. We also have forward movement by the shooter.
“You’ve consistently used the word target. If this is a target, if the shooter is aiming at the target, the target is moving around a lot. The muzzle is moving around all over the place. If that’s in automatic mode, the target can’t be up at the ceiling can it?”
AH: “No, but I need to qualify that as well. You cannot assume that where bullets went during discharge is where the shooter was aiming the gun. In addition to my qualifications,I’m also a qualified firearms instructor. I’ve trained a lot of people how to shoot. My experience is that unskilled shooters who don’t practice a lot quite often unintentionally move the muzzle of the gun quite a lot. The shots may go all over the place if they are not familiar with the gun and they don’t practice a lot.”
RP: “I think we can all understand. You have good shots and you have bad shots?”
AH: “You have shots that practice and shots that don’t.”
RP: “Upstairs, the shots were fired, we’ve seen, into that wall. The prosecution case as we understand it, is that was deliberately done by the shooter in order to send a message to the partner of Ashley Dale. From a ballistics point of view, is it possible to exclude the possibility that the shooter is firing at the building as opposed to an individual target, just as he was apparently doing upstairs?”
AH: “I can’t exclude that possibility.”
RP: “In other words, the shooter upon entering the property could have gone upstairs first and discharged the five bullets in that upstairs room. Did you ever go into the front bedroom?”
AH: “Yes I did.”
RP: “There was no evidence of any shots being fired in there was there?”
AH: “No there was no evidence the bed had been slept in or there were any shots fired.”
RP: “There was no evidence to suggest the gunman ever went into that front bedroom?”
AH: “No.”
RP: “The gunman comes down, and then goes partially into that dining room area with the weapon in automatic mode and fires a spray of shots while he is intending to hit the building. Can you exclude that proposition?”
AH: “I can’t exclude that possibility, no.”
The court will now break for lunch, resuming at 2.10pm.

 
14:15Catherine Murphy

Back in court this afternoon​

Good afternoon from Liverpool Crown Court, we’re back in position now.
Justice Goose takes up his position and calls for the jury.
Mr Pratt will continue to cross-examine firearms expert Mr Horne on behalf of Witham.



 
14:27Catherine Murphy

Tripod used to work out where Ashley was at the time of the shooting​

Mr Pratt asks about the tripod Mr Horne used in his reconstruction.
AH: “Because I don’t know where the gun would be, I make the centre of my reconstruction where I would expect the shoulder to be. I work on a shoulder height of one-and-a-half metres. The shoulder height would be where the top of the tripod would be. He could have been crouching, he could have been on his toes, he could have been taller than expected.”
RP: “The result inevitably will be approximate, perhaps imprecise.”
AH: “Of course, yes.”
Mr Pratt asks next about the bullet found in the chair.
RP: “You can work out the position of Ashley at that time.”
AH: “Yes. If we consider the flight path of the bullet. I was able to determine that. I could like the two points on the chair and extrapolate that line.”
RP: “What you can’t say is where she was immediately before.”
AH: “Of course.”
Mr Pratt has no further questions for Mr Horne, but Mr Greaney will reexamine him.
PG: “Is putting the weapon into fully automatic mode something one can do by accident?”
AH: “You have the selector with safe right in the middle. You either pushed it forward or backwards. I suppose if one doesn’t know which is which, you could put it in the wrong mode.”
PG: “You said something to the effect of where the bullet ends up isn’t necessarily where the gunman was aiming.”
AH: “Yes, that’s right.”
PG: “You explained the experience of the gunman will be relevant.”
He agrees.
PG: “Is the type of firearm also capable of being relevant?”
AH: “When you discharge firearms, you have what is called recoil. When you discharge a gun, if the bullet fires out in this direction it will cause the gun to recoil in the opposite direction. If you fire single shots it’s a lot easier to control the gun. You could fire the shot and reposition your aim. If it is in automatic mode and you’re not expecting the recoil, you may have the action of the gun influencing where the bullets are going.”
PG: “I think what your telling us is a Skorpion in fully automatic mode is at the more difficult end of the spectrum.”
AH: “Yes it is.”
There are no further questions for the witness, and he is released.



 
14:33Catherine Murphy

DNA found on bullet "one billion times more likely" it came from James Witham​

Mr Greaney calls forensic scientist Heather McKinlay to give evidence.
He outlines her qualifications and experience.
The prosecutor says she has been called as an expert witness in the case on the topic of DNA.
PG: “Were you provided with reference DNA samples for each of the defendants?”
HM: “I was yes.”
PG: “I’m going to deal with the bullet casings and fragments. Is it the position you examined all of the casings and fragments and identified a number for DNA examination?”
HM: “That is correct.”
PG: “There are just two I need to ask you about. I’m going to be asking you about a bullet casing found under the bed in the rear bedroom. Did you find DNA on that bullet?”
HM: “We did, yes.”
PG: “Did you obtain a profile from that DNA?”
HM: “Yes, we did.”
PG: “And compare it against the reference samples?”
HM: “Yes.”
PG: “Did you conclude that almost all of the components within the reference sample of James Witham match corresponding results from the bullet?”
HM: “That’s correct, yes.”
PG: “In due course, did a colleague of yours - a forensic scientist called Samuel Walton - carry out a more detailed analysis?”
HM: “That’s correct.”
PG: “Did he consider two propositions? First, the profile had originated from James Witham and another person unknown and, second, from two people unknown. And did he conclude it was one billion times more likely that it had originated from James Witham?”
HM: “That’s correct, yes.”
PG: “The DNA provided extremely strong support that James Witham had added his DNA to that bullet.”
GM: That is correct.”


 
14:37Catherine Murphy

Bullet found in a barstool in the kitchen​

Mr Greaney next turns to the bullet found in the back of the barstool in the kitchen.
Ms McKinley was asked to look for Ashley Dale’s DNA on the bullet.
The prosecutor asks of the DNA profile found on the bullet: “Was it your conclusion that all of the components except one present within the result from the bullet could be accounted for by the reference sample from Ashley Dale?
HM: “Yes.”
PG: “That would be as you would expect as if she had contributed to that result, albeit at a low level.”
She agrees.


14:39Catherine Murphy

Jacket found inside Pilch Lane flat​

The witness is now asked about the flat on Pilch Lane.
A jacket was found on a clothing rack behind a bedroom door within the property.
PG: “Were you able to smell that coat?”
HM: “Yes. It smelled recently laundered, especially in the pockets.”
PG: “Was the right cuff of that jacket swabbed?”
HM: “We used a small piece of adhesive tape to sample the inside of the right cuff.”
PG: “Was a profile derived from the DNA found?”
HM: “Yes, it was.”
Ms McKinlay confirms the profile was compared to those of the defendants, and the DNA of Zeisz and Witham was detected on the sample.
The findings were consistent with the two men “having worn the jacket at some stage”.


 
14:53Catherine Murphy

DNA of Peers and Witham found inside Hyundai​

Ms McKinlay was also tasked with examining items found within the Hyundai.
These included a bottle top discovered in the rear nearside footwell.

DNA attributable to both Joseph Peers and James Witham was detected on a sample taken from that bottle top.
The findings were consistent with Peers having “drunk from the bottle” and Witham having “had contact with the inside surfaces of the bottle top, including drinking from the bottle, at some stage”.

DNA was also found on the front nearside door handle.
Mr Walton carried out an analysis and was asked to consider whether the profile had originated from Kallum Radford and unknown contributors or from “people unconnected with Kallum Radford”.
It was found that the “first proposition was one million times more likely than the second”.


 

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