UK UK - Corrie McKeague, 23, Bury St Edmunds, 24 September 2016 #13

[janeh]

Last update on website 5/1/17 states only possible to leave by foot after 4pm. I think confusion comes in when you look at what is meant by 'horseshoe area'. The family are defining it as horseshoe and immediate vicinity not just the horseshoe itself.

They seem to have added the other area in recent days. Initially it was the hs area only, now the other part is included since there has been mention of the buildings on that side not been searched. This is where confusion arises imo.

There's so many variables, that's the big problem eliminating each one.

So many what ifs as well.

Lift back.
Lift part way back.
Lift prank (being dropped at Barton Mills) by someone he knew.
Argument ejected from vehicle.
Walk back, lost phone.
Still in BSE, but phone travelled without him.
Bike accident (Corrie steals a bike no lights easy to be struck)
Abduction.
Robbery.
In the bin lorry.

And a multitude of in betweens as well.




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[Shiressleuth]

BINGO!
...and that's my point! You stick to your guns. I'm agreeing with you that the 28 minutes represents simply the time taken by the PHONE to get from the 'Horseshoe' at 0422 (1 1/2 minutes tolerance of the bin wagon) to the BM 'ping time' (BM mast?) for 0450ish. Just add the 28 minutes travel time onto that!
I think we have to accept that N is showing signs of stress and misquotes are starting to appear more regularly, as they have done from the start. I feel for her I really do. We are the only stability and constant that' has an unbiased bent at the moment (excluding the police). We have the man/woman power, the time, resources and unattached emotions. We're NOT afraid to address issues or propose theories that are really right or left wing. Clearly skill sets that the family or police don't have IMHO.

Look at the statement again and try to make it fit. Unless I'm absolutely barking up the wrong tree here and shouting 'wobble' with pens up my nostrils and underpants on my head...I feel sure we're nearly there!!

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Where did the 28/26 minutes come from again? I mean how did they calculate it do we know? E.g. could it have just been based on the bin lorry journey?

 

[LorriB]

They seem to have added the other area in recent days. Initially it was the hs area only, now the other part is included since there has been mention of the buildings on that side not been searched. This is where confusion arises imo.



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I agree. Perhaps this is something they wasn't aware of initially? Or simply didn't clarify when discussing what they mean by 'the horseshoe area'.

 

[suzyjackson]

I'll have another read. If you can leave by foot after 4 p.m. why not before also I would ask? Also why all the searches then?

That statement is in relation to the CCTV being viewed up until 4pm, all bets are off on anything that happened later than that

 

[PilgrimsPrayer]

Yes this is mine and Midsummer's point. The calculation is just based on the bin lorry and not on phone pings.

The only constant is a 450 ping within 5km of the BM mast. It so happened that a bin lorry from Bury was in that radius at that time. IMO the two are not related.

The phone gets turned off in Bury and turned on at 0450 in BM.

Where did the 28/26 minutes come from again? I mean how did they calculate it do we know? E.g. could it have just been based on the bin lorry journey?

 

[janeh]

I agree. Perhaps this is something they wasn't aware of initially? Or simply didn't clarify when discussing what they mean by 'the horseshoe area'.

The bins in the new area has also been added and mentioned that they weren't checked or not checked until much later. I can't remember the exact details on this though.

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[CoverMeCagney]

No proof his phone started moving other than the BM ping at 0450.

Nicola said it left at 04:25?

 

[PilgrimsPrayer]

Based on the bin lorry, not pings.

Nicola said it left at 04:25?

 

[PilgrimsPrayer]

And in once sentence you see my argument. For a phone to be "leaving" it needs to exit the mast area. This is some way down A1101, a journey of maybe 15-20 minutes for the lorry, not possible to do in 5 minutes (420-425).

Nicola said it left at 04:25?

 

[CoverMeCagney]

Based on the bin lorry, not pings.

She said "his phone left Barton Mills* at 4:25am in the same direction as the bin lorry"

*we assume she meant to say BSE

 

[Scorpio1]

has any time ever been given for the car driving down the wrong way?
I wonder if that was before the bin lorry arrived or after!

 

[PilgrimsPrayer]

Unless he had GPS on how could they possibly know that? Pings don't give exact location, just a within 5km area.

She said "his phone left Barton Mills* at 4:25am in the same direction as the bin lorry"

*we assume she meant to say BSE

 

[MidsummersDay]

I'd put it higher than 5mph, most moderate cyclists could go at 10mph IMO For a vehicle I'd say 20mph plus

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[MidsummersDay]

I just want to note that the context of the quoted post was in response to a question over whether or not skeletal remains might be visible (or in a ditch, or a well).

I've used Tomnod a few times. They get their imagery from DigitalGlobe, who are also supplying some of the Google images now. I think their public use images go down to about 2 metres/6 feet. But they, and similar satellite networks, should have better capability which is reserved for paying customers/military/intelligence services.

People mentioned Tomnod a few weeks after Corrie disappeared, but the thing with that is that the satellites have to be tasked to go to an area, and the public images are not usually night-time shots. The public images also have problems with cloud cover. So it can take several days to a week or more for them to get images in situations like MH370, and once they have the images they have to be processed and converted into a format that can be used for the online searching.

I have no idea what MIS will be doing to help with finding Corrie or if the satellite imagery is going to be part of what they can contribute. I would say that in some ways if they're looking for a body in a field that the time of year could be advantageous (bushes and plants will have been dying back rather than growing wildly as they would in late spring/summer). It's probably too late to do IR searches looking for decomp heat (I presume). Something like ground disturbance (they can tell from satellite images where field boundaries were hundreds of years ago) might show up? Another thing to look for is change in colour of flora in the vicinity as a decomposing body is going to release a huge amount of nutrients into an area...but how will the time of year affect that? Grass that's grown over an ad-hoc burial site might look a different colour, and they might be able to pick up on something like that.

So I can see MIS and the satellite side being a tool in a toolbox. I personally would have liked a behavioural analysis team on board as another part of the toolkit, and one that's more focused on civilian crime than on crimes of military/intelligence bearing, but I hope MIS will have those kind of specialists in their teams?

Brilliant post, thanks. I've got him down as an 'ESTF'.


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[MidsummersDay]

I'm calling turtle droppings on the statement. There are still a number of CCTV footage individuals (6?) that have still to be identified three and a half months on so this proves Corrie could get past CCTV without being recognised.
Could he evade the CCTV systems?
Seen no, unrecognised yes.
JMO


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[Miss_French]

That's not the way I understand Nicola's comment, I think she is just saying that it was nearly payday, like lots of us Corrie was short near the end of the month. I can't be the only one who's been invited out, thought I'd better not go as I need to be a bit careful with my remaining money until payday then thought, what the hell, I'll go anyway.

I'm surprised that this has become anything important, he's a young lad who pots a night out above sensible budgeting, that's not unusual is it?

I'm not linking the pay day comment directly to Corrie being short of cash but still going out. It's always been said of airmen that they think cheques in the cheque book means money in the bank.

Nicola said he wouldn't have gone awol as it was a week before pay day. I'm saying what difference does one more month's pay make? If he's so short of cash he's relying on that to disappear of his own volition, it's not going to get him far on its own.

 

[cappsie]

There's so many variables, that's the big problem eliminating each one.

So many what ifs as well.

Lift back.
Lift part way back.
Lift prank (being dropped at Barton Mills) by someone he knew.
Argument ejected from vehicle.
Walk back, lost phone.
Still in BSE, but phone travelled without him.
Bike accident (Corrie steals a bike no lights easy to be struck)
Abduction.
Robbery.
In the bin lorry.

I note that of all the propounded ideas, most deal wtih him leaving the scene, except the roof which seems to have largely been written off but I've not yet seen a suggestion he might have entered the sewage or drainage system. However, if this has has been put forward, then I apologise as it's missed me.

Last night another possibility occured: a drain - although I think this is unlikely, it explains the disappearance. If he were put into the drain and the phone lost or binned, that might also explain the phone's movement. However if he willingly got into the drain - i.e. not under duress - then it doesn't explain the phone.

The only other thing I can think is an ellaborate ruse to throw everyone off the scent of his true goal: going AWOL - possibly to another country.

But these are just my opinion and thoughts.

I'd welcome your thoughts.

A.

 

[Smiff]

Deleted for double posting; blame iPad lol.

 

[MidsummersDay]

That statement is in relation to the CCTV being viewed up until 4pm, all bets are off on anything that happened later than that

Pilgrim, not sure if you saw my other post. I take what your saying. But work the equation from the other direction i.e. From the stated 0420 bin lorry arrival point. Add a suitable travel time for a LGV/HGV from BSE central to BM roundabout and the figure ROUGHLY comes out at 0445-0455.
Do the same for a stated travel time of 28 minutes for Corrie's phone and incorporate the stated 1 1/2 minutes tolerance with the bin lorry and you come to a near identical match. The only variable really is loss of signal (up to three minutes) per loss.
Keep thinking Pilgrim, you're doing great.


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[Smiff]

That's not the way I understand Nicola's comment, I think she is just saying that it was nearly payday, like lots of us Corrie was short near the end of the month. I can't be the only one who's been invited out, thought I'd better not go as I need to be a bit careful with my remaining money until payday then thought, what the hell, I'll go anyway.

I'm surprised that this has become anything important, he's a young lad who pots a night out above sensible budgeting, that's not unusual is it?

Since Corrie lives in the block and pay a token amount in taxes, mess charges etc. taken as a deduction prior to being paid; whatever he gets in the bank is his to do whatever he wants and is entirely disposable income.

He wont have utility bills, mortgages etc. coming out every month. Unlikely he'll have a gym membership as there is one free for servicemen at Honington. All he'll have are possibly car/phone payment and a Netflix subscription. If he's done a few tours In dusty places he won't even get much chance to spend loads for 6 months at a time.

He might not get as much pay as somebody on civvy street but he will have a far greater percentage of his wage available as disposable income. So he must really blow his cash when he's in the UK if he's short at the end of the month and needs to budget between a night out and something else.