GUILTY UK - Helen Bailey, 51, Royston, 11 April 2016 #1

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All kinds of problems with that note...

Her partner says he went out to run some errands and when he returned [after a thus far unspecified length of time], he found a note from Helen saying [according to the Chief Inspector who may have been paraphrasing] 'Going to Broadstairs. Need some space'.

I find it very curious that she wrote this note, then apparently took the dog for one last stroll around the area, before disappearing without trace, having made no planning/preparation of any kind. She took no luggage, no car, had no train tickets booked, no passport: she told no one - not even her mother who she loved and spoke to every three days] and has not been heard or seen from since.

I am not buying this at all. It doesn't make sense that she would be all urgent and brusque like that, [write a quick note and scarper while he's out of the house] and then hang around the locality walking the dog.

Personally, I think if that sighting of her walking Boris on the afternoon of Monday 11th was correct, then she went home afterwards as normal....and the implications of that - if true - would indeed be foul.

The content of the note was stated in this Guardian interview which was posted upthread. Well worth reading imo.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/may/30/helen-bailey-missing-mystery-disappearance-childrens-author

ETA: of course she could have been 'taken' by a stranger on the Heath... a stranger who also nabbed Boris. Not likely imo.

I am not sure we have ever been told the exact sequence of events / timings on that day. The last known sighting of Helen and Boris was at 2.45pm. But it is quite possible, that Helen then returned to her house after that time, to collect her suitcase and anything else she needed. At this point her partner was out of the house, so she wrote the note and then departed.
It would also make sense that she had taken Boris for a quick run if she was planning on travelling by train ( trains ) to Broadstairs and knew the dog would be confined to the train carriage/s for a length of time. She would not need to book train tickets for these journeys.

I dont btw believe any of the above ( even though it is marginally possible that it could be true ) because, so far, there seems to be no proof whatsoever that Helen actually left Royston at all.
I know the police have stated that they are - still - checking CCTV but surely by now they have covered the crucial times from Monday April 11 and , so far as we know, there has been no sighting of Helen at either the train or the bus station. In fact the only buses that depart Royston after 2.45pm seem to be the National Express coaches ( depart from by Tesco express ) and although I understand the police checked that area, they stated that nothing had been found.
The only other way to leave the town would be by taxi ( these have been checked ) or by private car ( a friend's car ).

I agree with you , that seems a very brusque note - unless the police were paraphrasing, and it is interesting that they would not be drawn on whether the note was typed or handwritten.
 
Did Helen move into her husband's home or did they move together into a new-to-them home?
I can imagine how unsettling it would be to have the new wife move into "dad and mom's" home.
If it was a home new to Helen and Ian, how odd and uncomfortable, for Helen especially, to have his 2 adult sons then move in with them.
Msm never really mentions the sons. I don't necessarily believe they caused her "disappearance", but I do believe it would have been a most awkward living arrangement on many levels.

They each sold their respective homes and bought a new home together. Helen's blog ( which was turned into a book last year ) is worth a read for more background.


eta - sorry I see that Nellie already answered your question re the home
 
I'm not liking the fact that she left while he was out.

What is wrong with saying to someone you need space, and you've decided to go to Broadstairs for a breather? Instead of bolting.

She is a mature, communicative person, cares for her partner and her mother, yet she leaves a cryptic note. Suggesting she couldn't wait, had to go without any discussion. Unless there were problems in the relationship or she had been acting strange recently, which I think that article dismissed.

I'm sure the train station would have a record of someone buying a ticket to Broadstairs, cash or otherwise. Her partner would know if she did the trip regularly how she preferred to travel, with her dog.

No activity on her bank account - she may have had access to a large amount of cash but why would she suddenly decide to use cash only, presumably savings. That sounds like someone who doesn't want to be traced but her saying where she is going is not worried about being traced. So I don't think she's gone missing voluntarily.


Tortoise, I agree completely with your conclusions.

There would be no reason to write a note, saying exactly where she was going and then to be secretive about her departure from Royston. So secretive that there is no CCTV or transport trail whatsoever.
It would have been simple enough, if she wanted to go somewhere other than her cottage, to just take the train out of Royston, then divert elsewhere when she got to London.
 
I am not sure we have ever been told the exact sequence of events / timings on that day. The last known sighting of Helen and Boris was at 2.45pm. But it is quite possible, that Helen then returned to her house after that time, to collect her suitcase and anything else she needed. At this point her partner was out of the house, so she wrote the note and then departed.
It would also make sense that she had taken Boris for a quick run if she was planning on travelling by train ( trains ) to Broadstairs and knew the dog would be confined to the train carriage/s for a length of time. She would not need to book train tickets for these journeys.

I dont btw believe any of the above, even though it could be believable, because, so far, there seems to be no proof whatsoever that Helen actually left Royston at all.
I know the police have stated that they are - still - checking CCTV but surely by now they have covered the crucial times from Monday April 11 and , so far as we know, there has been no sighting of Helen at either the train or the bus station. In fact the only buses that depart Royston after 2.45pm seem to be the National Express coaches ( depart from by Tesco express ) and although I understand the police checked that area, they stated that nothing had been found.
The only other way to leave the town would be by taxi ( these have been checked ) or by private car ( a friend's car ).

I agree with you , that seems a very brusque note - unless the police were paraphrasing, and it is interesting that they would not be drawn on whether the note was typed or handwritten.

That recent article says she didn't take a suitcase.

BIB - I know it's unsavoury speculation, but his car went to Broadstairs. I hope it's been forensically examined. I'm sure it would have been.
 
Sorry but he went to their holiday home to look for her. Why, is what I would be asking. She's said she wants space. Ok, she's not answering her phone, and that might be very unusual for her, but is that a reason to go after her, if she is having time out?


I was wondering if - after phoning Helen and getting no response ( because her phone is switched off ) her partner then phoned the neighbours of the cottage.
And possibly, even if the neighbours said they had not seen Helen, he might have thought she was in the cottage, just holed up in there and had not been out and felt he had to go and check.


NB the bit about her partner phoning the neighbours is my assumption only. I do not know if he did.
However, in Helen's book, one of her dedications is to the neighbours of the cottage and she thanks them for always keeping a watch on the property, so surely the neighbours telephone number was known to Helen's partner.
 
That recent article says she didn't take a suitcase.

BIB - I know it's unsavoury speculation, but his car went to Broadstairs. I hope it's been forensically examined. I'm sure it would have been.

Ah, sorry I missed the part about the suitcase. Not good at all . Even though I know Helen kept stuff at the cottage I am sure she would still have wanted to take an overnight bag of some sort.
 
I do still think this is most likely to be a suicide and I feel rather dreadful for her partner and family who are now having fingers pointed at them. The police aren't stupid. If they arrest someone, fine, until then my sympathies remain with her nearest and dearest. No bloody wonder they don't want to put their faces all over the media so people can scrutinise them.
 
I do still think this is most likely to be a suicide and I feel rather dreadful for her partner and family who are now having fingers pointed at them. The police aren't stupid. If they arrest someone, fine, until then my sympathies remain with her nearest and dearest. No bloody wonder they don't want to put their faces all over the media so people can scrutinise them.
I certainly don't think the police are stupid, but they just may be keeping a tight lid on the investigation. They might be finding other interesting bits from the CCTV. Suicide is a possibility. So are other scenarios. Honestly I think families know they will always be scrutinized by LE and the public in an investigation in which a member has suddenly disappeared. My sympathies are with them along with my questions.
 
I am not sure we have ever been told the exact sequence of events / timings on that day. The last known sighting of Helen and Boris was at 2.45pm. But it is quite possible, that Helen then returned to her house after that time, to collect her suitcase and anything else she needed. At this point her partner was out of the house, so she wrote the note and then departed....

[SNIPPETY SNIP]

I agree with you , that seems a very brusque note - unless the police were paraphrasing, and it is interesting that they would not be drawn on whether the note was typed or handwritten.

You're right! Firm statements about the sequence of events, and in particular, the timing of events are hard to come by. I thought the sequence was established weeks ago but looking back at it again it is vague and open to question, as you noted. EG

[Chief Inspector Wheatley] said Mrs Bailey's partner went out to run some errands, after which the author was spotted walking her miniature dachshund Boris, but neither have been seen since.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-36142437

So little seems clear. A neighbour saw her walking Boris on a normal walking route she used regularly, sometime that morning. That to me is reasonably clear. It's a confirmed sighting by someone who knew her.

I understand the 2.45 'last sighting' was by people walking dogs but can't find more detail about who they were, whether they knew her personally [eg was this a confirmed sighting of Helen, or a sighting of someone who answered her description?]

I cannot find a time stated for when Helen was last seen by anyone in her own home or even what time her partner returned to the house and/or found the note.

This lady vanished from Royston leaving a note saying she was heading to Kent, but as you stated, there is no evidence she ever left Royston, let alone arrived in Kent or anywhere else they have searched. After an intensive search that has been running now for several weeks, there is not a single lead or clue, so it doesn't surprise me in the least that people have begun to focus in on gaps and peculiarities, and yes, to speculate re foul play.
 
And that't the article addressing why the police raised this from medium to high risk: "Over the weekend, however, police officers spoke to her brother and her mother, who said this behaviour was very unusual and out of character, so the case was raised to high risk. “High risk means that it is deemed to have elements of criticality,” Wheatley says. This allows police to put a trace on her phone, and track any texts being sent and calls being made (the content of the calls and texts is not available, but the times and numbers are).

Lumberjill

All kinds of problems with that note...

Her partner says he went out to run some errands and when he returned [after a thus far unspecified length of time], he found a note from Helen saying [according to the Chief Inspector who may have been paraphrasing] 'Going to Broadstairs. Need some space'.

I find it very curious that she wrote this note, then apparently took the dog for one last stroll around the area, before disappearing without trace, having made no planning/preparation of any kind. She took no luggage, no car, had no train tickets booked, no passport: she told no one - not even her mother who she loved and spoke to every three days] and has not been heard or seen from since.

I am not buying this at all. It doesn't make sense that she would be all urgent and brusque like that, [write a quick note and scarper while he's out of the house] and then hang around the locality walking the dog.

Personally, I think if that sighting of her walking Boris on the afternoon of Monday 11th was correct, then she went home afterwards as normal....and the implications of that - if true - would indeed be foul.

The content of the note was stated in this Guardian interview which was posted upthread. Well worth reading imo.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...issing-mystery-disappearance-childrens-author

ETA: of course she could have been 'taken' by a stranger on the Heath... a stranger who also nabbed Boris. Not likely imo.
 
This took me some time. My searching skills maybe not what they should be, but here it is...the answer to my question about the nature of the 'last sighting':

A woman matching Helen’s description was seen walking her dog in Heathfield and on the pathway between Baldock Road and Green Drift in Royston on the afternoon of April 11, 2016.

http://www.herts.police.uk/hertfordshire_constabulary/latest_news/news_articles/120516_-_0202_g.aspx?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=SocialSignIn&utm_source=Twitter

To me, that is not a confirmed sighting; it's someone who might have been her.

If someone the DM says is a neighbour [I cited this post before] who does not want to be named says says 'I saw her walking her dog in the morning around the block and she did that quite often [or wtte] then OK, I am not entirely happy about the anonymity but presumably the DM are not going to flat out lie about something so important. Plus, walking the dog round the block in the am rather than over to the Heath makes some sense to me.

But if then some other person [also un-named] tells the police 'I saw a lady with dark hair and she might have had a dog' then I am thinking...well, OK....did you KNOW her? Did you describe what she had on accurately? Which bring us back to 'what DID she have on? No one from her household who definitely saw her that am has - as far as I know - described what she was wearing.

At this stage I am with Alyce 100% and definitely think people should be getting WAY more picky about these things.

When was the last confirmed sighting of Helen Bailey? The police say she [appeared to have] had a normal email exchange with someone on the morning of Monday 11th, but when is the last time someone who knows her actually saw her in the flesh?

Edited to add link and fix some clarity and broken bracket
 
I'm thinking that note could have been from the time she went to Broadstairs at Easter, her neighbours said they last saw her there then. It could be deemed as unusual to want to get away, to the same location, in such a short timescale of a few weeks.
 
Don't know if I'm doing this correctly (or in the right place), but am trying to put together a Timeline and a list of Information revealed so far; please add, correct, clarify, expand if you see something incorrect or have new information. Info and Clarity from official LE sources are bafflingly scarce on this one!

Background/Timeline for Helen Bailey, UK

MISSING PERSON:

HELEN BAILEY & MINI DACHSHUND, BORIS

HELEN BAILEY, AGE 51
HOME: Royston, HERTFORDSHIRE UK
2ND HOME IN BROADSTAIRS, KENT
GREW UP Newcastle, NORTHUMBERLAND
FOND OF Brighton
PROFESSION: CHILDREN’S BOOK AUTHOR
PARTNER OF: IAN STEWART
WIDOW OF JOHN SINFIELD – DIED by downing, 27 FEBRUARY 2011, Barbados

RELATIVES: (Could be others—these were mentioned by media)
1) HER MOTHER
2) HER BROTHER, JOHN BAILEY
HER COUSINS:
1) JUDITH IRELAND, 67, SCARBOROUGH, NORTH YORKSHIRE
2) MIKE WIFFER, BRIDLINGTON, EAST YORKSHIRE

Ian Stewart
Partner, possibly fiancé, of Helen Bailey.
Met one another 7 months after the death of Helen’s husband on Grief Message Board, approximately November 2011.
Stewart lost his wife in 2010; her name was Diane. No obituary found after an Internet search. Press refers to her death as “tragic circumstances.” Do not know where he lived at the time of wife’s death, but media has him living in Letchworth, Hertfordshire when he and Helen met.
Stewart currently lives in house Helen and Stewart bought together; has his two adult sons living with them.

Some Known Friends (She has many)
Jay Nolan-Latchford and Emma Sandalls who apparently live in the area. And Shelley Whitehead, her friend, and Grief Counselor.

Hitchen Police On Case
Ch. Insp. Julie Wheatley
Lead Investigator Lynda Coates
Would love to find the email of either of these two.

TIMELINE (As revealed in media so far; of course there may be, probably are, elements that purposefully have not been released by LE):

11 April 2016 Last known sighting of Helen, walking her dog, Boris; could have been neighbors or other dog walkers.
One person saw Helen at 2:45 pm and said she was wearing a silvery coat. Unclear if sighting was done by person who actually knew Helen.
11 April 2016 According to Ian Stewart, her partner, Helen left note for him while he was out doing errands. Note said she needed some time alone, going to Broadstairs.
12 April 2016 A truck driver reports seeing a woman matching Helen’s description wearing a green coat and walking a dog; in Baldock; The green coat appeared to be missing; later reports indicate the truck driver saw a woman, but in Hatch Lane of Westin, and no dog; Helen’s green coat was found at home; police issued this correction on 22 April 2016
15 April 2016 Ian Stewart reports Helen Bailey Missing; says he drove to Broadstairs but did not find her.
4/17/16 The Guardian First Media Report (I think)
4/19/16 Hertfordshire Police tweet about missing Helen Bailey (AND another missing children’s book author, Natalya Shieff— Shieff was found alive and well.
4/19/16 J.K. Rowling re-tweets Hertfordshire police tweet.
4/21/16 Police drain Helen’s garden cesspit and take ‘sniffer’ dogs into the house.
4/26/16 Media (Daily Mail, etc) reports Helen had access to large sum of money. Ch. Insp. Julie Wheatley, Hertfordshire Police had the following quote attributed to her: ‘There has been no financial activity but we know she had, instantly available, quite large sums of cash. A four-figure sum.’
Wheatley has also said there has been no activity on any of Helen’s accounts (no large sums of money withdrawn) and no digital footprint of any activity (ie, social media)
Over Next Two Weeks: Various media reports, nothing substantially new in reports
5/12/16 Ian Stewart makes public appeal to Helen.
5/12/16 Helen’s brother, John Bailey, holds press conference, reads statement with appeal to Helen and anyone who sees her.

Miscellaneous Information and/or Observations:
1. There is no apparent evidence of any kind that Helen went to Broadstairs, or even left Royston.

2. Her cell phone is turned off. While model of phone not indicated, most likely scenario is that it cannot be turned on (even by national security entities!)

3. She apparently left with her purse, but no luggage, no passport. No other apparent preparations had been made for any trip.

4. Police report that she left a note that she “needed some time alone and was going to Broadstairs.” There were no comments as to if the police actually saw said note, or, if they did, when it was written, or how it was written (typed, handwritten, text email). No comment on current existence of note (was it tossed? does LE have copy or original?--lack of comment leads one to presume note was tossed).

5. Her family and friends assert this is completely “uncharacteristic” of Helen to disappear.

6. Ian Stewart says that there had been no argument or problem.

7. Bailey and Stewart had lived together for about a year, along with his two adult sons in their early twenties.

8. It is unclear, from media reports, if Helen actually availed herself of the large sum of cash the Chief Detective said she kept at home; further, it is not known who knew she had a large sum of cash at home; further, it is not known if Helen knew she had a large sum of cash at home, and/or when she knew it.

9. Ian Stewart reported that he drove to Broadstairs on 4/15/16 but did not find Helen there; that was when he said he returned home and called the police to report Helen missing.

10. No mention has been made of Ian Stewart’s profession—or job, if any, but apparently, he has recently had health problems. He recently was recovering from an operation. Police report that he is “very distraught” and asking that no media contact him. Neighbors state that the police referred to Helen as Ian’s fiancé.

11. The 5th anniversary of the death of Helen’s husband was February, 27, 2016, about 48 days before her disappearance.

12. Helen’s husband died by drowning; In an ironic twist, all of the titles in her popular Electra Brown series (written from 2008 onwards, and which appear to be available only in paperback, no ebook) reflect a water theme: Falling Hook, Line and Sinker, Out of My Depth, Swimming Against the Tide, Taking the Plunge, Life at the Shallow End, etc.
13. She is the author of the highly popular Panet Grief blog. On her blog, she has made a couple telling statements. She has said she never should have left London and that she’s not used to not being able to hail a cab. On February 27, 2016 she posted a blog entry marking the five-year anniversary of husband’s death and difficulty she faced moving on. A few days before that she wrote of being “tired and strung out.”

About herself she has said: “When things go wrong in my life, broadly speaking, my first reaction is to shut down, hide, refuse to answer the phone or emails and lie on the sofa watching trashy telly with a packet of Almond Slices resting on my tummy.”

14. Her friends and family thought she was happy and all say this is out of character for the Helen they knew, despite the on going dealing with grief. Apparently, Ian’s recovery from the procedure was going along fine. A couple people said his health was a concern for her.
 
Remi well done.

I've read somewhere along the line that Ian is a computer software expert. He lived with his wife Diane in Bassingbourn in Royston.

I think it odd that a prolific writer and blogger like Helen would go away and be parted for any length of time from her laptop. Unless she has another one in Kent.

I remember reading she sent a message to a friend saying "TLC is wearing thin" while Ian was ill.

She was in very regular contact with her mum, I think I read she'd phone her every 3 days.
 
Thanks Tortoise...do the Forums only allow a couple edits? I wanted to incorporate your findings but don't see where it will allow me more than the two corrections I already made. Hmm.
 
Thanks Tortoise...do the Forums only allow a couple edits? I wanted to incorporate your findings but don't see where it will allow me more than the two corrections I already made. Hmm.

I think there's a time limit for editing posts.

If you wanted to repeat the post with updates you could 'Reply with quote' to your own post, delete everything in square brackets [ QUOTE and the rest] and [/ QUOTE], mark it as an update at the top, and put in your changes.
 
Remi, thank you for the excellent summary.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Great work, Remi. Just one thing stood out to me, mainly because I already had a bee in my bonnet about the 'sightings' and had a mini rant about this issue up-thread.

11 April 2016 Last known sighting of Helen, walking her dog, Boris; could have been neighbors or other dog walkers.
One person saw Helen at 2:45 pm and said she was wearing a silvery coat. Unclear if sighting was done by person who actually knew Helen.

The 'silvery coat' sighting was a neighbour who saw Helen walking her dog in the morning of the 11th April.

...a neighbour said he had spotted Helen Bailey on Monday morning with her dachshund Boris – also missing.
The neighbour, who did not want to be named, said the writer was walking the route she often took with her dog 'sometime in the morning. She was with Boris, walking towards the centre. I think she was maybe wearing a polyester silver grey rain coat,' he said


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...n-s-author-disappeared-dog.html#ixzz4AVafhDLH

The afternoon/'2.45' sighting is also mentioned in the same article, but with no detail as to who saw her or where

[Helen] was last seen on Monday April 11 at 2.45pm and is believed to be with her dog.

The Express describe the afternoon/2.45 sighting as follows

That same afternoon a woman matching her description was seen walking her dog in Royston

http://www.express.co.uk/life-style...e-author-dog-Boris-partner-Ian-Stewart-appeal

And a couple of weeks later, the Telegraph adds a little more detail about the people doing the afternoon/2.45 'sighting' but we don't get told whether these people knew Helen, or whether they told Police what she was wearing etc.

That afternoon, Helen and Boris were spotted by three other walkers near to Royston Heath, a regular haunt a few minutes from her home

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/06/where-is-helen-bailey-author-missing/
 
Something else I want to put in here just for the record because it was mentioned earlier in the thread but as far as I knew, there was no updated info about it.

It was reported that a friend of Helen's, [David Podmore] had spotted her Facebook messenger 'active' on Sunday 17th, a couple of days after she was reported missing.

Her friends were encouraged by this at the time, but sadly it did not turn out to be Helen using her account, as this brief line from a May 11th article makes clear.

A log-in on her Facebook messenger gave authorities hope, but this has been confirmed as having been done by someone else.

http://www.hertfordshiremercury.co....tory-29259413-detail/story.html#ixzz4AVhRkFfC
 
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