The sad fact is that A&S have been identified by Her Majesty's Inspector of Constabulary as a "high to medium cost force compared to its peers, which employs slightly more police officers than its peer forces", but which then goes on to score poor results in comparison with other forces (3 on a scale of 4 in almost every category). In particular, HMIC cites "The number of serious sexual offences, including rape, that have been solved is below the average for peer forces".
On the other hand;
"The force has traditionally been strong in investigating homicides and tackling major crime."
(
http://www.hmic.gov.uk/PoliceReportCard/AvonandSomerset/Pages/ReportCard.aspx?BCUID=0&ForceID=1)
Just as well we're talking about a homicide here then. The CPS got convictions in 36 out of 38 homicide cases for A&SC in 2010. That's a conviction rate of almost 95%, which was significantly above the national average.
A&S have 27 unsolved murders on their books, compared with the adjoining forces of Wiltshire (none at all), Gloucestershire (one) and Devon & Cornwall (7).
According to Freedom of Information Act Request No 466/2010-1708, Devon & Cornwall actually had 12 unsolved murders outstanding between 1.1.60 and 31.12.10. The Avon and Somerset Constabulary consider that they have 23 unsolved murders, 4 of which actually predate 1960, so a true comparison would be 12 against 19. (And whilst CPS figured show that they prosecuted 38 A&SC homicide defendants in 2010, it prosecuted 21 D&CC defendants, so 19 versus 12 probably reflects nothing more than the relative incidence of that offence.)
I presume that these figures were taken from the FOIA request that the BBC made (See 'When the murder trail goes cold' -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/8662635.stm). The trouble is that the different forces gave different answers; the Met only counted back as far as 1996, whilst Tayside Police went all the way back to 1886. Devon & Cornwall only went back to 1976 for the BBC, but gave a different answer when they were asked to go back to 1960. Thus the figures aren't necessarily comparable; the Gloucestershire figure of 1 unsolved murder is only since 2004; A&SC have 3 unsolved murders since 2004.
In any case one should note that in order to 'solve' a homicide all the police have to do is charge someone and get them to court. The JY murder will count as being solved the minute that the case of R v VT opens at Bristol Crown Court, irrespective of whatever verdict that may follow. (Perish the thought that police forces might simply charge someone simply to make their numbers look good.)
Also note that if A&SC had 27 unsolveds when the BBC asked the question early last year, but now have 23, it implies that they've cleared 4 in the past year. Not bad going that.
In addition, they've been criticised for significant public expenditure on high-profile cases that have failed in the courts, such as the acquittal of all nine men charged with the Bristol gangland shootings.
Well that case does date back to 2006; the allegation being that the nine men constituted a gang who were responsible both for the murder of two men shot outside the Spotlight nightclub in Croydon and for a failed drive-buy shooting in Bristol on the same night which nevertheless left two women seriously injured. Whatever criticisms were made of the failure to convict in this case were largely directed at the CPS, who were responsible for the decision to roll both cases into one, and the Met, who were responsible for the majority of the significant public expenditure incurred. (Meticulous paperwork apparently.)
In any event the fact that the odd motor vehicle does indeed get sprayed by machine gun fire on the streets of Bristol, does rather underline the fact that A&SC faces rather different challenges compared to some of its neighbouring forces. You don't get that sort of thing down in Redruth you know.
Add to that the fact that VT was charged on the day before a high-level review had to start due to the lack of progress in the case, and the scene is set for those at grass-roots level to come up with something, or face the prospect of the entire force being merged with one of its more successful neighbours.
Only time will tell, but if the case against VT collapses when it goes to court, it could well be the death-knell of A&S, given the government's wish to reduce the number of separate police forces we still have.
If the "case against VT collapses when it goes to court" then CPS will take the rap. It will be a solved murder as far as A&SC are concerned (see above).
The previous government had various plans to merge police authorities. These were abandoned in 2006, after what is usually referred to as 'widespread public opposition'. I'm not aware that the current government has any specific wish to promote police mergers for any reason other than the usual cost-saving/efficiency arguments. I would also very much doubt that the Home Office would take any particular view regarding A&SC simply because of just one homicide case, even if it is one that has generated acres of coverage in the tabloid press.
