Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #10

[Davieson]

What evidence has there been to suggest drowning?

None at all but in the absence of anything to the contrary it has the highest probability

 

[karakuchi]

Most dogs wouldn’t do that, they’d likely carry on when at the road, especially if they know the area.

Depends on the nature of the dog though right?

My friend owns a black lab-raised in London, and is so used to strangers.
You can literally pass the lead to a stranger, and while she will protest with whining, she will go with them.

Clearly this dog was well-natured enough to accept being tied to a bench by a stranger!

 

[WestLondoner]

Most SOCCO teams probably already have this info as part of their training.

No doubt someone has looked into whether trying to recreate a body's route is worthwhile, and has concluded otherwise, I agree.

Question for the group:
If Nicola did leave via this exit (the same way she entered)
What could have caused the dog to stay?

Being tied to a bench so it couldn't follow the owner, maybe. That would be quite the abduction; someone abducts NB but takes time to secure the dog so it can't hang around.

 

[Allabouttrial]

I still think the dog harness was wet when found. This has been my IMO from the start.

Handbag is a really good point. Most ladies do have handbags.

Nah, she had, essentially, 2 coats on with lots of pockets. Pain carrying a bag if you don't have to especially when walking a dog.

 

[Deleted member 320164]

I've been questioning this gap in timings since the first few days.

It seemed very odd to me from day 1 why a clearly very strange situation, (i.e a dog running free with a lead and phone nearby) would a) not be seen by anyone else in the near 2 hour gap and b) why those who had seen the situation did not go back to help any sooner.

All very strange and I feel the police have wasted days and days on a theory that, no pun intended, holds no water whatsoever. If the police had a shred of evidence she'd fallen in the river, then share it, otherwise it's wild hypothesis based purely on the fact this all happened near a river, therefore she must have fallen in the river.

I totally agree Phil.

I find the approach to facts in this case a little odd. You cannot base hypotheses on *assumptions*.

If you stick to the cold hard facts:

1. The last known location of NB is when she interacted with the friend at 8.47. The later sighting at 9.10 seems to have be from across the field, (according to press reports) so potentially accurate but less certain.

2. NB’s items were found on and by the bench at 9.33. They were not found at the water’s edge. So while it’s possible she fell in that’s an assumption as there’s no evidence she went near the water.

So there’s a window of 8.47 until 11ish.

And you’ve got 4 principle possibilities - Accidental or intentional drowning, voluntary disappearance or third party involvement.

There’s no evidence for any of them so surely you’d run them all concurrently until evidence proves/disproves them.

Imo the evidence of her disappearing involuntarily are strong enough to put accidental drowning and third party involvement ahead of the other two (but doesn’t discount them).

It would have been safer to run those two in tandem rather than ruling out criminal involvement so early and focusing so much attention on the river.

I know they say they have 40 detectives following many different lines of enquiry but they keep emphasising don’t believe it’s a criminal matter So a. How hard are they looking at that if they don’t believe it and b. They don’t have any evidence she’s in the river but that hasn’t stopped them going on a wild goose chase in boats.

At the very least - pursuing those two options concurrently would have protected the police from criticism. Because if NB is not found in the river in the next few months - the *advertiser censored* will hit the fan.

 

[I wonder]

Imagine Nicola was your mum/wife/sister/daughter. I think very few of us would accept that she’s dead with apparently no evidence, not just to prove it, but to even indicate that she did fall in the river and drown.

I certainly wouldn’t and I don’t think this is being delusional. I think it’s very understandable to feel like this. Add to this the fact that believing her to be dead feels almost a betrayal, as though you’ve given up on her.

In this country we all understand the importance of evidence. We don’t put people in prison without evidence and many decisions we make as individuals are made on the basis of evidence.

Asking people to accept the horrifying death of someone you love, based on a phone on a bench near a river, is too much, particularly as she hasn’t been missing for months or years.

Hope isn’t just the thing with feathers, it’s what sustains us through the bleakest and most frightening of times. It’s all they have. Little wonder they are clinging onto it. I would be too.

 

[kev4pe]

took this screenshot from where Nicola was walking dog. Top of screenshot is the view towards the tree line that separates field she was in and the caravan park field. You can easily see through the tree line. I'm pretty sure a dog could squeeze through there!

 

[Cuko]

So confirmed, the police didn’t approve the story about the red van. Very irresponsible reporting.

It may well have been irresponsible reporting, but I’m personally glad that the U.K. is not a country in which the police decide what journalists may or may not write.

 

[Deleted member 320164]

Another option ( instead of the ones I just posted upthread ) could it possibly be he's been influenced by Peter Faulding conversations?

( If you think back to what Peter said in the past when he was also talking in absolutes and ' impossibilities' etc etc)

The family have said from the start that falling in the water is “only a theory” - quite rightly. I think it’s more likely that he got PF in because he doubted the police line.

 

[karakuchi]

It may well have been irresponsible reporting, but I’m personally glad that the U.K. is not a country in which the police decide what journalists may or may not write.

I don't know if 'irresponsible' is the right word.
MSM said 'this has been reported'
Police confirmed 'yes it has and we're looking into it, along with our 500 other leads'

We are aware of reports in the media about a red van being reported to us and we would like to stress that while this has been reported to us and we are making efforts to identify the owner at this time there is nothing to suggest this was anything other than one of many hundreds of vehicles in the area that morning.

IMO also a little telling it's been two weeks and they can't find the owner...

Lancashire Constabulary - Latest update in search for Nicola Bulley

The latest news and information for Lancashire Constabulary

www.lancashire.police.uk

 

[Lilly b]

Has it been mentioned on C5 tonight at 9pm, there's an hour long programme on about it

 

[MusicalMonkey]

Nicola Bulley: Paul Ansell 100% convinced she is not in the river

Paul Ansell says he does not believe Nicola Bulley fell in the river, as police say they are open-minded.

www.bbc.com

"It comes after Lancashire Police issued two dispersal notices on Thursday to break up groups, including amateur investigators and people filming police activity around the area where Ms Bulley disappeared."

Anyone here been there?

 

[Lilly b]

And there's something on C5 news right now

 

[imstilla.grandma]

Paul told Channel 5's Dan Walker that he will "never give up" on finding Nicola in the chat, airing at 9pm tonight


The in-depth documentary, including the full interview, titled "Vanished: What happened to Nicola Bulley?" will air at 9pm.

Nicola Bulley's partner thinks ‘something happened’ on day she vanished

NICOLA Bulley’s partner Paul Ansell has opened up about her disappearance in a sit-down interview. Paul told Channel 5’s Dan Walker that he will “never give up” on finding N…

www.thesun.co.uk

The witness also claims to have contacted the police again and said that the van could have been a Renault vehicle and that it was the sort “you can live in”. A second witness told The Sun that they had reported seeing a red van which “looked suspicious” at around 9.40am on the same day.

https://www.nationalworld.com/news/people/nicola-bulley-red-van-police-search-missing-woman-4022661

 

[Davieson]

I totally agree Phil.

I find the approach to facts in this case a little odd. You cannot base hypotheses on ^assumptions^.

If you stick to the cold hard facts:

1. The last known location of NB is when she interacted with the friend at 8.47. The later sighting at 9.10 seems to have be from across the field, (according to press reports) so potentially accurate but less certain.

2. NB’s items were found on and by the bench at 9.33. They were not found at the water’s edge. So while it’s possible she fell in that’s an assumption as there’s no evidence she went near the water.

So there’s a window of 8.47 until 11ish.

And you’ve got 4 principle possibilities - Accidental or intentional drowning, voluntary disappearance or third party involvement.

There’s no evidence for any of them so surely you’d run them all concurrently until evidence proves/disproves them.

Imo the evidence of her disappearing involuntarily are strong enough to put accidental drowning and third party involvement ahead of the other two (but doesn’t discount them).

It would have been safer to running those two in tandem rather than ruling out criminal involvement so early and focusing so much attention on the river.

I know they say they have 40 detectives following many different lines of enquiry but they keep emphasising don’t believe it’s a criminal matter So a. How hard are they looking at that if they don’t believe it and b. They don’t have any evidence she’s in the river but that hasn’t stopped them going on a wild goose chase in boats.

At the very least - running those two options concurrently that would have protected the police from criticism. Because if NB is not found in the river in the next few months - the *advertiser censored* will hit the fan.

Which I think is what they are doing.
The last 2 of your options are essentially the same - looking for evidence of her exit, which they haven't yet found.
Only if they see her in the company of another person could they begin to consider a crime option.

 

[cottonweaver]

The family have said from the start that falling in the water is “only a theory” - quite rightly. I think it’s more likely that he got PF in because he doubted the police line.

agree with you on the latter - I have bolded that part.

It really does build a better picture for me now.
he family must have always disbelieved any possibility that she'd ever fallen in and that's why Paul Ansell also says today that it's 100% not possible in his view. He doesn't even believe it's a plausible theory with any probability at all ( unlike you or I)

Paul Ansell said he is '100 per cent' the mortgage advisor, 45, did not fall in the River Wyre in Lancashire, as police believe..' Nicola Bulley's partner says his family are going through 'hell'

Might also explain some of the signs of friction

 

[Kike76]

I am a bit confused by this. Has the lake at Rowanwater definitely been searched ? This link says it is 6 foot deep and has lodge type houses around it. It is quite a large body of water

It does seem fairly accessible from Garstang Road and maybe her dog ran there.

https://www.sellmygroup.co.uk/park/Rowanwater-1274

 

[Deleted member 320164]

If somebody falls into a river and there are no eye witnesses, what kind of evidence would you expect?

The police theory is that she fell in when she was by the water tending to the dog.

For that I would expect 1 or more of the following:
- a wet dog
- harness and or phone dropped by the river
- a glove, a hair scrunchie, a packet of tissues, lip balm, keys - something to have fallen out of a pocket or floated.

 

[jackal67]

not that I'm aware of.
Sorry, I was just referring to next one, whenever it comes, as they seem quite regular)
( they've done 3 in 2 weeks, despite Underhill claiming they had no media strategy to keep case in the media. )

Thanks. Was just wondering as it's exactly 2 weeks today.

 

[I wonder]

I still think the dog harness was wet when found. This has been my IMO from the start.

Handbag is a really good point. Most ladies do have handbags.

If the harness was wet, do you not think the police would have mentioned it, particularly as they are so certain Nicola went into the river?

I don’t know anyone who goes on a dog walk and takes their handbag with them.