Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #10

[Beginnersleuth]

I was just looking at NB's Strava maps and she does seem to have previously spent significant time at the bench area. On her last recorded walk on the app on 7 Nov she appears to have moved backwards and forwards and in loops between the bench and water. Map shows lots of squiggles (moving around), right next to the river.

Attached is a wider view and a zoomed in view.

Imagine it would be a good spot to play catch with the dog etc to wear her out before putting the collar and harness back on and going home. Maybe that accounts for the squiggles

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

There is no evidence or witnesses to say she was ever near the bench on the day she dissappeared.

I did not say she was at the bench the day she disappeared.

Her Strava history shows she has a habit of spending time at the bench. Over time, on her walks, she seems to spend an increasing amount of time there, moving backwards and forth. Not clear what she is doing (e.g. pacing or playing with the dog).

However, past behaviour is the best predictor of future behaviour.

 

[Coach]

But she was slightly late to the call

MWT left the police, at the rank of detective constable , for a company specialising in removing chewing gum.

Self-promoting TV detective helped ruin the lives of innocent celebs

Sir Cliff Richard, Jim Davidson, Freddie Starr and Lord Brittan were all accused of abuse but never charged with an offence. 'Detective’ Mark Williams-Thomas publicised their names.

www.dailymail.co.uk

It is not uncommon for people to join a Teams meeting a minute or two late or even later for all sorts of reasons, especially if they are having problems connecting.

 

[Mr X]

Of course, but I hadn't previously given a great deal of thought as to the location of Willow's harness at the scene prior to being presented with one myself by my friend's dog

This is why I asked earlier (still not answered) whether the harness was dry or wet when found. If harness had gone in the River accidentally and MP tried to get it back but slipped into the water then the first thing she would do is throw it back out in order to have both hands available.

IMO this is possibly when getting out turned out to be impossible and drowning occurred.

 

[IspyWithMyBigEye]

Nobody as said the harness was wet. Let's say it was!! Are you saying she went in a freezing cold river in jan to retrieve a item that costs a few pounds? Then when she gets in the river grabs the harness she then throws it 20 meters up a very steep embankment? Then drowns ?

It’s perfectly feasible that while N was listening into the teams meeting she had her phone placed on the bench, P said she often used loudspeaker. She had it in mute and with camera off too, like many do, and as she listened she most likely would have have had the dog off the lead and was possibly throwing sticks for her to round around.

iMO she could have thrown a stick which went almost to the river’s edge, W went to get it and she feared she might jump in and didn’t want her to so dashed down to pull her up by her harness. That sloping bank is wet and slippery and filled with hard long stars of corn type weeds which are rough as hell. It’s so easy to trip over one and IMO she she fell possibly headfirst into the river then fried to grab W’s harness to pull herself up. The harness slipped off in the struggle and that‘s why it was found where it was.

She then panicked as she couldn’t get out the river ( divers have said how difficult it would be) and tragically she got swept under or along. The other problem is that she was wearing dark blue and black clothes which were the same colour as the water, so unless someone was actually looking she wouldn’t have been noticed. The other problem is that air pockets may formed between her gillet and jacket making her buoyant enough to be swept over through the tidal flow and over the weir. Eventually she would have sunk, obviously.

The biggest sign that she disappeared at that spot is that the harness was so close to the river and the dog was running between the bench where her scent was strongest and between the gate trying to get help without knowing how to as it’s a dog.

Thats my IMO and I think tragically she may resurface in the sea or further down river. I wish I could believe all these other theories but I haven’t read one that is logical IMO.

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

Imagine it would be a good spot to play catch with the dog etc to wear her out before putting the collar and harness back on and going home. Maybe that accounts for the squiggles

Yes, having looked through her Strava I'm starting to think about the water scenario again. It shows categorically that it was normal for her to move around in that area, which as we know is uneven and steep. The maps show her signal very close to the water at times, GPS is not hugely accurate but it suggests that in the past she did not stay close to the bench and moved around its vicinity. Maybe this is the info making the police so certain...

 

[Tanzanite]

As a general point, I think it's worth bearing in mind that hinting towards some spurious theory, particularly when linked to PA or another witness, is not made magically reasonable by:

• The cop-out ellipses tagged at the end of said spurious theory
• Saying 'Of course I don't believe it myself' at the end of said spurious theory
• Smushing both together in an attempt to distance yourself further from the spurious theory you've just shared with the world

IMO. MOO.

 

[Lilly b]

This is why I asked earlier (still not answered) whether the harness was dry or wet when found. If harness had gone in the River accidentally and MP tried to get it back but slipped into the water then the first thing she would do is throw it back out in order to have both hands available.

IMO this is possibly when getting out turned out to be impossible and drowning occurred.

It was dry

 

[EvaP]

But she was slightly late to the call

But she was slightly late to the call

MWT left the police, at the rank of detective constable , for a company specialising in removing chewing gum.

Self-promoting TV detective helped ruin the lives of innocent celebs

Sir Cliff Richard, Jim Davidson, Freddie Starr and Lord Brittan were all accused of abuse but never charged with an offence. 'Detective’ Mark Williams-Thomas publicised their names.

www.dailymail.co.uk

The times I’ve joined at 9:01…..clock could have just ticked over or she may have been waiting to be admitted if lobby was on. 9:01 isn’t late

 

[MsBetsy]

new links, this morning https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html



Irony is dead



Two articles which appear next to each other at the link above

JANET STREET-PORTER: The Nicola Bulley mystery isn't a Netflix crime show. Our endless demand for TV police dramas is to blame for the circus of ghouls and amateur detectives salivating over this tragic saga and adding to the agony of her poor family​

and

EXCLUSIVE

The EIGHT key clues in Nicola Bulley's disappearance: Former detective says police must look closer at the missing mother's phone, fitbit and her dog​

Yes @mrjitty MWT, Group Investigations Editor (Newsquest)TV Reporter.The Investigator(Netflix) , is key contributor for the ' Exclusive' in the Mail, today, see above.

MWT has also claimed that '....actually only needs to be a matter of 10, 15 seconds. “It's that quick, that you can actually abduct someone, or alternatively, you can get away yourself."

Are they saying that because it only takes 15 or 20 seconds to abduct someone it is evidence of an abduction?

It takes the same amount of time to fall in a river.

 

[Mr X]

@Lilly b

Thanks for confirming status of the harness. I did not realise this had been confirmed by LE. Rules out my theory then.

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

IMO that could just be GPS inaccuracy and the person at the time was sitting on the bench. Maybe the MP always sat there for a while during a walk. Nice spot for a rest?
Or possibly on a call and walking around in the general area.

I was quite a big Strava user in the past and those squiggles do not occur if you were sitting or standing still. It's definite movement of the phone around the area.

Strava and GPS can place you in a slighly inaccurate location (e.g. your neighbour's house) but it will not produce squiggles and loops where there was no movement. On the odd occasion it could go a bit funny but this would, in my experience, be a straight line or half rectangle...and a one-off. Never repeated. NB's walks consistently show this same type of looping movement at the bench.

I am utterly convinced by the Strava data that NB regularly moved (paced or played) around the bench area.

 

[cottonweaver]

Are they saying that because it only takes 15 or 20 seconds to abduct someone it is evidence of an abduction?

It takes the same amount of time to fall in a river.

MWT says that an abduction can happen in that short a time frame.

Although he does a CYA by adding later ' am not saying that this happened' ( theoretical vs plausible, general vs specific )

He doesn't cover any specifics whatsoever of how practically this could have been pulled-off in this particular case, leaving no trace, 2 weeks later.
TBH, Web Sleuths members have put more time & energy into thinking through the specifics about the latter, than MWT has. ( Not me, I still think she entered the water)

Think MWT is a bit sloppy, for example, look at this:
'"When you have a stranger attack rather than a planned attack, that tends to be far more opportunistic and it's much easier for them to get away with it'

( false premises. Strangers do commit planned attacks. Planned attacks are easier to pull off than opportunistic attacks )

Link for quote Top cop says Nicola Bulley could have been abducted in '10-second window'

 

[EvaP]

Possibly but it sounds like PA worked on US time so would have been working too.

My partner and I both worked for US based corporations however me (as mum) and my mum always shared the childcare. Men generally (don’t slam me here) don’t pitch in to the level required. I’d say that’s normal and grandparents love having grandchildren over anyway.

 

[pineapple23]

If the harness was on the embankment, is it possible that N could have slipped and tripped when she was trying to put it back on? Maybe Willow didn’t want it to go back on at that point and N possibly tripped over her.

That's been my theory all along. Maybe Willow was on the scent of something and Nicola tripped when she was trying to grab her - possibly hitting her head. The harness being on the slope makes it a bit more likely imo. Maybe her body shifted/got stuck somewhere so they didn't find it at the outset. It's as plausible as any other scenario that's been mooted. JMO

 

[russeverton]

It’s perfectly feasible that while N was listening into the teams meeting she had her phone placed on the bench, P said she often used loudspeaker. She had it in mute and with camera off too, like many do, and as she listened she most likely would have have had the dog off the lead and was possibly throwing sticks for her to round around.

iMO she could have thrown a stick which went almost to the river’s edge, W went to get it and she feared she might jump in and didn’t want her to so dashed down to pull her up by her harness. That sloping bank is wet and slippery and filled with hard long stars of corn type weeds which are rough as hell. It’s so easy to trip over one and IMO she she fell possibly headfirst into the river then fried to grab W’s harness to pull herself up. The harness slipped off in the struggle and that‘s why it was found where it was.

She then panicked as she couldn’t get out the river ( divers have said how difficult it would be) and tragically she got swept under or along. The other problem is that she was wearing dark blue and black clothes which were the same colour as the water, so unless someone was actually looking she wouldn’t have been noticed. The other problem is that air pockets may formed between her gillet and jacket making her buoyant enough to be swept over through the tidal flow and over the weir. Eventually she would have sunk, obviously.

The biggest sign that she disappeared at that spot is that the harness was so close to the river and the dog was running between the bench where her scent was strongest and between the gate trying to get help without knowing how to as it’s a dog.

Thats my IMO and I think tragically she may resurface in the sea or further down river. I wish I could believe all these other theories but I haven’t read one that is logical IMO.

Imo that's a awful lot of predictions unfounded and a hell of a lot of scenarios. Where is this stick she was throwing? Surly it's there as a piece of evidence. Why is it slippery? It wasn't raining. Where are the slip Mark's if it was raining.? I have heard it would be easy to get out of that part as it was shallow 2ft possibly 3 on the day. And there are steps to get out. Why would she panic? Shes a good athlete and swimmer. And the most important thing is where is the body? Underwater divers were in there searching hours later. You have had police searching from day 1. A specialist team with high tech equipment searching the river bed for miles and miles. And nothing. . No evidence what so ever she fell in and no evidence of a body in the river.

 

[PremierKissov]

I don’t know how skilled he is, the body in the bag has never been solved though.

The Mirror quoted Faulding as saying:

"I spoke to Paul last night and asked him if she had any enemies, any stalkers, the normal questions you would ask."

Actually this strikes me as an extraordinary question for a man hired to search the river to be asking. Yet the media continue to hang on Faulding's every word as if he were Sherlock Holmes.

In the most recent Lancs Police update they said: "We also continue to see a huge amount of commentary from so-called experts". You can draw your own conclusions from that.

 

[EvaP]

If he was the ones to put the kids and dog in the car whilst Nicky came down then why is it her on the cctv that morning. what footage is there of him, assuming there is some of him leaving …

I can’t answer that

 

[WAWAW]

It is not uncommon for people to join a Teams meeting a minute or two late or even later for all sorts of reasons, especially if they are having problems connecting.

Very true like many I was made a home worker at the start of the pandemic and we have weekly meetings to which people are quite often late. However, it is very odd for someone to have no involvement in the meeting and even odder in this case as the night before she had just got a new client and this is exactly the sort of information the meeting should be for. In itself not very relevant, but as with a lot about this case it is unusual behaviour

 

[Tanzanite]

Yes, having looked through her Strava I'm starting to think about the water scenario again. It shows categorically that it was normal for her to move around in that area, which as we know is uneven and steep. The maps show her signal very close to the water at times, GPS is not hugely accurate but it suggests that in the past she did not stay close to the bench and moved around its vicinity. Maybe this is the info making the police so certain...

I think the harness on the bank and your very useful observation about the past squiggly Strava is really persuasive actually. My thoughts had been all over the place this week, but I'm back with NB having a tragic accident, while doing something really ordinary - playing with the dog, meandering in her favorite spot - that she'd done a hundred times before.