Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #13

[pineapple23]

Hmmm… the Sun aren’t my credible source. I don’t trust anything they say. JMO

According to this report the glove was found last week. I would have thought if it was significant, police would have decended on the area. Nicola Bulley police 'handed stained glove found near where mum disappeared'

 

[kittythehare]

With respect it's clear you have a lot of faith in LE. We've all seen and heard what LE are saying and the narrative they are sticking with, but IMO it's what they're not saying that the merry go round of speculation has risen off the scale. Because they're not backing up the theory. Of course not everything is released to the public, things will be known only to them, but with all those forces working 'flat out' as you put it, everyone is expecting new findings, a revelation, breaking news, something other than what has already been said repeatedly

I do SAR work voluntarily so I know a bit about it. Enough to know that if Lifeboat Coastguard and other reputable agencies with world class expertise suggest searching the river that they have applied scientific principles to the actions we have seen.

That's my perspective which is why I have said it's great from the outset.
I don't need to have even the slightest bit of faith in LE to say and know that.

 

[Davieson]

With respect it's clear you have a lot of faith in LE. We've all seen and heard what LE are saying and the narrative they are sticking with, but IMO it's what they're not saying that the merry go round of speculation has risen off the scale. Because they're not backing up the theory. Of course not everything is released to the public, things will be known only to them, but with all those forces working 'flat out' as you put it, everyone is expecting new findings, a revelation, breaking news, something other than what has already been said repeatedly

Public expectation is unrealistic based on their experience of TV drama.
A lot of police work involves repetitive checking that results in no ground breaking revelation and yet the officers are fully occupied in what they are doing.

 

[Bluesleuth66]

DBM

 

[doghandler]

I do SAR work voluntarily so I know a bit about it. Enough to know that if Lifeboat Coastguard and other reputable agencies with world class expertise suggest searching the river that they have applied scientific principles to the actions we have seen.

That's my perspective which is why I have said it's great from the outset.
I don't need to have even the slightest bit of faith in LE to say and know that.

I also volunteer in SAR (Lowland Rescue in my case) - and the comments in this thread and elsewhere show how little those outside the work understand the levels of training, co-ordination, thoroughness, strategic approaches, expertise, professionalism, realities of searches etc. etc. across the various orgs involved. So very much appreciate your comments!

 

[Bibitty]

As daft as it sounds I was thinking the same. I didn't sleep much last night but you know when you just think "give me a padded coat, some wellies and a safety rope and I'll go and see what happens". It wouldn't work though because it would have to be done repeatedly at different speeds and height of entry as velocity on entry would obviously make a difference to where in the river a person would end up.

I've also seen people saying that the river isn't deep at that point. On the anglers map it is labelled as "deep hole" which is a recognised fishing feature and it does indeed refer to a deep hole, deeper than the river bed around it. It has also been discussed on previous pages by people familiar with the term.

What about the risk of instant cardiac arrest from cold water shock?

 

[Dowls90]

Nicola Sturgeon resignation press conference at 11am, it could run until 11:30am. Does anyone know where we can watch the press conference for this case without the risk of Sturgeon taking over?!

 

[onthecounter]

I think telling people to “back off” at this stage, will only stoke the fire. They need to be more diplomatic, explaining in as detailed and systematic manner as possible what they have done, what they are doing, and what they believe.

 

[todders]

I really don`t think we are going to get any major updates from the police today, it will be as per the statement that was given to sky news yesterday which is included in the link below. I think social media will get a mention and the effect it has and for the public not to take the law into their own hands ie breaking into properties etc. For me i would just like to have a little more detail on why they are convinced NB went into the river as their best Hypothesis. IMO

This below is from the statement that was given to sky new yesterday.

The force said it "stressed that we continue to keep an open mind about what might have happened to Nicola" and that potential scenarios were being looked at to eliminate them.

However, it added: "Based on all of the vast amount of work we have done up to now we continue to believe the most likely scenario is that Nicola has fallen into the river for some reason, but we have a dedicated team who are continuing to investigate all possibilities thoroughly.

"It remains the case at the present time that there is no information/evidence in all the exhaustive enquiries we have made that suggests any crime has been committed or that there is any third-party involvement in Nicola's disappearance, but the investigation is ongoing."

Nicola Bulley update - live: Police giving news conference

 

[Coach]

What channel or website can we watch the live press conference at 11:30 this morning?

 

[mrjitty]

With respect it's clear you have a lot of faith in LE. We've all seen and heard what LE are saying and the narrative they are sticking with, but IMO it's what they're not saying that the merry go round of speculation has risen off the scale. Because they're not backing up the theory. Of course not everything is released to the public, things will be known only to them, but with all those forces working 'flat out' as you put it, everyone is expecting new findings, a revelation, breaking news, something other than what has already been said repeatedly

Counterintuitively the lack of new findings can be an important development - tending to suggest theories are incorrect.

 

[Lincolnshirelad]

Strictly speaking, recovering bodies from the water is *exactly* what fishermen are good at. The bodies are still alive, but that doesn't mean the places they can be hidden or the way the river flows is any different.

The entire river was mapped by sonar by police and other teams. They will have identified every single area a body could be lodged - such as roots / deep pools / behind large rocks / under weir etc.

This is why we would of seen divers in the water when the mapped the area outside the bench. So they could fingertip search those pools.

 

[kittythehare]

I think telling people to “back off” at this stage, will only stoke the fire. They need to be more diplomatic, explaining in as detailed and systematic manner as possible what they have done, what they are doing, and what they believe.

'Unfortunately, we continue to see groundless and hurtful abuse of innocent people, including witnesses and local businesses, which is totally unacceptable
We also continue to see a huge amount of commentary from so-called experts, ill-informed speculation and conspiracy theories which is damaging to the investigation, the community of St Michael’s and, worst of all, to Nicola’s family. It must stop.
We have consulted with the National Crime Agency which is offering continual advice and support, along with a number of national experts.'

Facebook

www.facebook.com

They have, you see.
Blaming the police for what the public chooses to believe is neither rational nor sane.
We choose what we believe.
Some of our choices are informed by knowledge, many are not.
Populism is neither rational nor reasonable.

 

[mrjitty]

Strictly speaking, recovering bodies from the water is *exactly* what fishermen are good at. The bodies are still alive, but that doesn't mean the places they can be hidden or the way the river flows is any different.

The problem is unqualified opinions are presented as insightful.

 

[IKnowNowt]

Hasn't there been talk here of drainage and underwater structures? Sometimes things lodge in our subconscious.

Yes, this in particular caught my attention. Supposing if Nicola had entered the river where she was last witnessed, in the top field. Could she have drifted the relatively short distance to where Blay Brook joins the river Wyre, where the underground portion is? It does seem unlikely, as it would be going against the flow, but perhaps a possibility if the river was quite still.

Blay Brook has an underground portion I’ve circled in blue on the google earth photo.
Does anyone have a map of other underground large pipes or overflows?

Thinking that a body could sadly end up in accidentally or otherwise

Google Earth Link


Google Earth
#googleearth

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

The entire river was mapped by sonar by police and other teams. They will have identified every single area a body could be lodged - such as roots / deep pools / behind large rocks / under weir etc.

This is why we would of seen divers in the water when the mapped the area outside the bench. So they could fingertip search those pools.

I'm not criticizing or saying anyone is better at searching than anyone else, it's just an unfortunate reality that water is an inherently difficult place to search and bodies do quite frequently escape detection.

 

[GeorgeFormby]

Does anybody know if cadaver dogs can pick up scents from bodies that sit inside water? i.e. if a body is underwater in a small river, could cadaver dogs picks up the scents downstream and follow it to the source?

 

[markie79]

Sky news are reporting that the press conference will be 11.45 rather than 11.30.
Also the headline is interesting "Police are holding a news conference about the search for missing mother-of-two Nicola Bulley as they seek to combat disinformation about her disappearance."

Nicola Bulley update - live: Police giving news conference | UK News | Sky News

 

[Firstsnow4]

I know we have been over this a lot but in this article it states ‘Police extended their search into the sea after being unable to find her body but believe the mortgage adviser fell into the river during a "10-minute window" between 9.10am and 9.20am that day’

If she did indeed fall in the river in that 10 minute window how did her phone get back to the bench at 9.20am, unless planted?

I thought the theory was she fell in once back at the bench. JMO.

This could just be inaccurate reporting of course. JMO.

Nicola Bulley ‘high risk’ missing person due to ‘specific vulnerabilities’ - police

Lancashire Police Detective Superintendent Rebecca Smith said officers were being distracted by ‘false information, accusations and rumours’

www.standard.co.uk

 

[mrjitty]

'Unfortunately, we continue to see groundless and hurtful abuse of innocent people, including witnesses and local businesses, which is totally unacceptable
We also continue to see a huge amount of commentary from so-called experts, ill-informed speculation and conspiracy theories which is damaging to the investigation, the community of St Michael’s and, worst of all, to Nicola’s family. It must stop.
We have consulted with the National Crime Agency which is offering continual advice and support, along with a number of national experts.'

Facebook

www.facebook.com

They have, you see.
Blaming the police for what the public chooses to believe is neither rational nor sane.
We choose what we believe.
Some of our choices are informed by knowledge, many are not.
Populism is neither rational nor reasonable.

The problem for law enforcement is nothing they can say, short of a breakthrough in the case, will satisfy the media and public. The pressure is for performative actions like finger tip searches of fields or randomly going through people's houses.