Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #17

[Amonet]

Police were clear from the beginning that there were no suspicious circumstances or third party involvement. How they knew that will hopefully be made clear now.

I think they said/meant that they hadn't found any signs of those things.

 

[sriraaacha]

<modsnip> I’m not shocked they’ve found a body (which I’m guessing is going to be Nicola) but it’s still awful news. Such a sad day for all of her family and friends. I wonder if it’ll ever be revealed how she ended up in there?

 

[abovethestorm]

But the dog would have stayed where she fell in and it didn't.
It focused on being between the bench and the kissing gate.
Not the bench and the river.

If I recollect correctly, PA was told that Willow was going back and forth between the bench and the wooden stile which leads to the river path. If this IS the case, surely sniffer dogs were deployed to try and track whether Nicola had walked off in that direction, but we've not been given any specifics by Lancs Police.

 

[29 Acacia Road]

But the dog would have stayed where she fell in and it didn't.
It focused on being between the bench and the kissing gate.
Not the bench and the river.

That's assuming the dog saw her. Willow was off the lead, she knew the area and was comfortable there. It is quite possible Willow left Nicola at the bench and ran off exploring the field and bushes, comfortable knowing Nicola was at the bench and could return to her at anytime she liked.

Willow could also be intelligent enough to know people go in and out of the gate so was hoping someone would come through it so she could alert them Nicola had gone from the bench. Or Willow may have just been confused, knowing she left Nicola at the bench and could not work out whether she should stay at the bench for her or go out the gate to find her.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Police were clear from the beginning that there were no suspicious circumstances or third party involvement. How they knew that will hopefully be made clear now.

I thought her partner's interview did suspect a third party. WHEN did the police state there were no suspicious circumstances.??

 

[bringmeacupoft]

How does a father tell a 6 and 9 year old that Mommy is no longer lost but gone forever?
Unimaginable.
MOO.

Yes it was very jarring thinking about it. I was at a party today for my little ones class mates, and I felt so emotional thinking about the girls, and the news they would receive and how their mum won’t be there for any future parties, parents evenings or play dates.

It’s just awful.

 

[mrtnira]

I’m the last person who wants to fall down the conspiracist rabbit holes but I confess to thinking similar things. However I’m fairly confident Occam’s applies here.

Good post. Yes, no one wants to be a "conspiracy theorist." However, in percentages, even if it is one, two, or three percent chance of a crime, acknowledging those percentages help shape a more accurate assessment model. I believe, like you, the simplest answer might be the answer here, but we're not privy to most of the shaping the information, yet.

 

[mrjitty]

The dog wouldn’t have followed her as she would have sunk. That’s even if the dog saw what happened.

I don’t understand why a (presumably) drowned body being found a mile or two downstream possibly snagged in undergrowth is suspicious. It is exactly what we would expect.

Hopefully the worst of the conspiracies can be put to bed now.

 

[SpideySense]

This case has really made me go off underwater search efforts entirely. I’m sure they have been effective sometimes, but the technologies involved seem to be woefully inadequate. Look at the Kiely Rodni case - skilled dive teams and thorough LE sonar scans failed to locate a submerged SUV. I can only imagine how much harder it would be to locate a 5’3” body. False hope gets created for loved ones when intensive days long searches find nothing. *Edited to say I am NOT referring to the Faulding search, only the dive and scan efforts of LE, whom I don’t fault. I only fault the technology limits.*

DBM

 

[Marie Bell]

Would they be able to tell the difference between accidental slip, intentional act or possible push if there was no obvious sign of a crime? Or would they rely on other evidence they already possess, eg recent internet searches, state of mind etc to make a best guess based on most likely scenario? Do they tend to assume accidental if no evidence for anything else (Eg toxicology).

I just hope the family gets the conclusive answers they deserve.

It's purely my opinion, but I think that they were able to surmise very early on that there weren't any factors that pointed to suicide. I base this on, amongst other things, Superintendent Riley's first (I think?) press conference; when she said that the most 'probable' event had been a slip or trip whilst in the process of re-harnessing the dog.

 

[Tortoise]

I don't know if it's already been posted but I thought of this quote from Peter Faulding on 7th Feb

"Speaking on Good Morning Britain, Mr Faulding said: "Bodies can get lodged in reeds and show up months later, the sonar won't go into the reeds. But then that's the idea of the divers and, as I said before, it was originally searched when she supposedly went in..."
Seven things about Nicola Bulley disappearance that expert says don't add up

 

[suzyjackson]

I thought her partner's interview did suspect a third party. WHEN did the police state there were no suspicious circumstances.??

But that doesnt mean there was one, its human nature to not want to acknowledge that your loved one may have killed themselves or choosen to walk away from their life. It also allows for a bit of hope that she might still have been alive


A perfectly understandable but most likely wrong assumption

JMO

 

[jk1874]

Thinking about PA, why do you think he was so convinced that she wasn't in the river? Maybe bought into what PF said too much?

 

[MusicalMonkey]

Would they be able to tell the difference between accidental slip, intentional act or possible push if there was no obvious sign of a crime? Or would they rely on other evidence they already possess, eg recent internet searches, state of mind etc to make a best guess based on most likely scenario? Do they tend to assume accidental if no evidence for anything else (Eg toxicology).

I just hope the family gets the conclusive answers they deserve.

It is impossible to tell if someone has been pushed unless there is witness evidence (including CCTV) of that happening.

This is why one should only go hiking in mountains with someone they trust.

 

[Sarahlou]

Thinking about PA, why do you think he was so convinced that she wasn't in the river? Maybe bought into what PF said too much?

Denial and hope

 

[philthesaddler]

Something quite odd about where the body has been found - there doesn’t appear to be a path beside the river here - there is a road, but there is a wall which appears to be around 5 foot or more from the road side.

If you look at the photos taken today, taken from the other side of the river, cars are parked behind the wall, with only their rooves pointing out above the wall. There’s also another picture of two police officers walking behind the wall and only their caps are visible.

This strikes me as strange, because it begs the question how the walked found the body. It also appears as though the body was deep in the rushes and only visible once you had ventured in yourself.

I’m wondering whether these were indeed dog walkers, but people doing their own searches instead?

 

[Davieson]

Hopefully the worst of the conspiracies can be put to bed now.

I doubt it. There are always people who revel in thinking up the most outlandish scenarios

 

[BDL1960]

So it looks as though the initial (most straightforward) police hypothesis was right. Unless toxicology reveals anything untoward it is most likely Nicola was the victim of tragic accident.

Now the body recovery phase is over, there will be further intense scrutiny and a witch-hunt for the guilty parties within LE.

I cannot imagine they would have released Nicola's personal details without the permission of the family. The FLOs have been embedded within the family since day 1 and one of their roles is to manage the release if information such as this. It will be interesting to see whether LE have managed to retain the confidence of the family. They have not publicly criticised them yet. Whether this will change remains to be seen.

 

[bringmeacupoft]

Hopefully the worst of the conspiracies can be put to bed now.

I think not, I spent about 2 minutes on twitter and was sickened. I stopped reading.

I think this is just going to get bigger and bigger. I obviously hope not, and maybe in a week it will be calmer and maybe with today’s events it has reached the top of interest.

 

[29 Acacia Road]

Thinking about PA, why do you think he was so convinced that she wasn't in the river? Maybe bought into what PF said too much?

Possibily in denial, possibly wanted to appear hopeful and strong for the kids.