Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #2

[Cicane]

I have interpreted this information from two witness statements the caravan woman who found willow and then the group who came upon willow the second time also finding her phone . The woman who found willow did not take her home because she had an appointment. She called someone to let Paul know. Paul then made his way down there. Willow was tied up and panicked. She has panicked and wrangled herself free of the harness. She was found lead and harness free which looked dropped on the floor by the next lot of dog walkers to come by. Willow was still there looking worried.

If I’m correctly interpreting the information The lady who owns the caravan found willow but did not remove her from the area she simply tied her up and left her for someone else to deal with after letting her daughter know to tell Paul, because she had an appointment. The dog has gotten free and then was found again by the second group who then found the dog and recognised the screensaver as NB. JMO

Another thing that sticks out for me is that this area has already had multiple people go passed it in a short amount of time but no one saw her at the bench? . JMO

I wonder if Willow’s lead was still attached to the harness when she found her? Or the lead was somewhere else?

 

[kittythehare]

Could the police not send someone into the river at the point where NB last was, dressed in what NB was wearing and see what happens? Whether they’re pulled under etc?

SAR teams are experts in water movement and direction, wind speed, all of it... They usually run those calculations. They're pretty amazing skillsets.
They would work out where it is likely she would be at any given time through these calculations.

Assessment of the Usability of SAR and Optical Satellite Data for Monitoring Spatio-Temporal Changes in Surface Water: Bodrog River Case Study

Mapping watercourses and their surroundings through remote sensing methods is a fast, continuous, and effective method and is a crucial tool for capturing change and possibly predicting hazards. Thanks to Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) technology and the ability of its backscattered and emitted...

www.mdpi.com

Water Body Mapping Using Long Time Series Sentinel-1 SAR Data in Poyang Lake

Mapping water bodies with a high accuracy is necessary for water resource assessment, and mapping them rapidly is necessary for flood monitoring. Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China, and its wetland is one of the most important in the world. Poyang Lake is affected by floods from...

www.mdpi.com

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303510529_Estimating_Accurate_Water_Levels_for_Rivers_and_Reservoirs_by_using_SAR_Products_A_Multitemporal_Analysis

 

[Firstsnow4]

SAR teams are experts in water movement and direction, wind speed, all of it... They usually run those calculations. They're pretty amazing skillsets.
They would work out where it is likely she would be at any given time through these calculations.

Assessment of the Usability of SAR and Optical Satellite Data for Monitoring Spatio-Temporal Changes in Surface Water: Bodrog River Case Study

Mapping watercourses and their surroundings through remote sensing methods is a fast, continuous, and effective method and is a crucial tool for capturing change and possibly predicting hazards. Thanks to Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) technology and the ability of its backscattered and emitted...

www.mdpi.com

Water Body Mapping Using Long Time Series Sentinel-1 SAR Data in Poyang Lake

Mapping water bodies with a high accuracy is necessary for water resource assessment, and mapping them rapidly is necessary for flood monitoring. Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China, and its wetland is one of the most important in the world. Poyang Lake is affected by floods from...

www.mdpi.com

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303510529_Estimating_Accurate_Water_Levels_for_Rivers_and_Reservoirs_by_using_SAR_Products_A_Multitemporal_Analysis

Very interesting.

 

[kittythehare]

Very interesting.

It is but there are many variables in larger rivers with tides and currents and cross currents, it can take a very long time.
But this is a much smaller river.
So maybe easier.
They have not written it off yet in any case.

 

[Cicane]

They could use a diver and have boats on standby? It could help understand whether she could have been swept along in some way.

 

[Lilly b]

Witness or People Who Were In Close Proximity

So these are all the people who have been mentioned so far as being in the area / proximity to where NB and Willow the dog were on their walk.

Witness One – Confirms seeing NB at 9:15am

Witness Two & Three – The anonymous friend of NB who gave this interview says she spoke with two people who believe they are the last people to see NB who laughed and joked with NB Nicola Bulley seen 'laughing and joking' moments before she vanished by river, says pal - Mirror Online

Witness Four – The unnamed business woman who recognised who Willow was and ‘tied her up’ who called her daughter in law who in turn knew who’s dog it was and alerted NB partner. Nicola Bulley: Passerby raised alarm after finding 'worried' dog alone and off leash - Mirror Online

Witness Five & Six – The same anonymous friend who accounts for Witness Two & Three, then says “two other dog walkers later came across her phone and recognised the screensaver photo”. She says these witnesses are a woman dog walker who walked through the gate onto the path, followed behind by a ‘gent’. Nicola Bulley seen 'laughing and joking' moments before she vanished by river, says pal - Mirror Online

Witness Seven – The key witness police sought, described as in his 70’s, white hair and well built Nicola Bulley: Police seek potential key witness in search for missing dog walker - Mirror Online

We do not know if Witness One knew or knew of NB.

We do not know if Witness Two & Three knew or knew of NB

We know that Witness Four recognised NB dog Willow, and Witness Four daughter in law knew NB and partner and had partner number/contact details of some sort in phone

We know that at least one of Witness Five & Six knew or knew of NB

We do not know if Witness Seven knew or knew of NB

I wonder if there is any car parks close by ?

 

[DaFroome]

Willow may be key in my mind.

Agitated and circling the same location suggests a river accident.

I know my collie, and if I fell in that would her behaviour. She’d not jump in, she’d be immediately agitated and she’d not leave the location.

If I’d been abducted or attacked, she’d pester the attacker, and definitely move with the situation.

Williw’s behaviour suggests the location is important, not a third party.

 

[Inspector Evans]

<modsnip - quoted post removed>

Scrolling back and the Blackpool Gazette report actually answers my question. The bench is pretty visible if you're walking towards it and another photo shows a good visibility from the bench area across the park.

So if you're walking around the lake you can see the bench area quite clearly for several minutes as you approach. Of course you might not intently be staring at an individual from a distance but you'd be aware a figure is there.

If she did fall I'm surprised that wasn't picked up as it would be quite obivious to see a figure falling down a steep bank unless it was just one of those unlucky situations where no one was passing or approaching at the time.

The gate right by the bench seems to lead to a more secluded area of woodland unless the picture is deceiving but I assume that part has been thoroughly searched already?

 

[Lilbitcurious]

Read a report about this case so came on WS to see what the opinion was.

Apparently the children's school is pretty much next to the park so NB apparently parked at the School and then took the dog for the walk.

Feels very odd really that after nearly a week there's been searches in the water but nothing found. And I assume given that time of day plenty of people would've also been walking pets or for leisure purposes.

Anyone know how isolated the bench and lake are? I'm thinking of my local park in Birmingham (UK) which has a lake in the middle. It's pretty open to view so you can get a good viewing of people walking around it or sitting on benches from 500m away (park is on a slope). I assume this location is far more secluded otherwise surely a witness would've noticed another individual emerging/acting with suspicion?

Timeline feels very quick though for foul play to be involved if this house is ruled out.

Has it been stated that her car has been found parked at school?

 

[Inspector Evans]

I wonder if there is any car parks close by ?

Daily Mail today says she left her car at the School carpark (on map):

Last known movements of missing mother Nicola Bulley

Searches for mother-of-two Nicola Bulley entered their sixth day today with no trace of the mortgage adviser last seen in picture postcard St Michael's-on-Wyre.

www.dailymail.co.uk

From my experience pretty much all country parks in West Midlands have at least one small car park at a main entrance so assume it's same for this one in Lancashire.

 

[Inspector Evans]

Has it been stated that her car has been found parked at school?

Daily Mail reported it. Said she dropped her two kids off at school that morning, left the car in the school car park (small village so guess it's a different culture to inner city schools) and then when into the park just after 9am and god knows what then happened.

 

[Kassanddra]

Just a consideration to anyone who had not thought of it. But the water searches; diving, etc.. aren't just for a body. They will be looking for items of clothing, her wellies, any other belongings she may have had with her, I can't think if any witness said she had a bag or anything else with her.

If he did fall in the water, it could be at some point that an item of hers turns up during one of these searches.

Sorry if I am stating the obvious, but a lot of what I've read implies some people are only thinking of a search for a body.

This is just dreadful, it was hard reading the words of her poor parents.

 

[kittythehare]

Could the police not send someone into the river at the point where NB last was, dressed in what NB was wearing and see what happens? Whether they’re pulled under etc?

Clearly defined area of operations: Water rescue - WTR (PUBLISHED) | NFCC CPO

www.ukfrs.com

They wouldn't really need to do that.

Maritime Search and Rescue Manual - RNLI​

https://rnli.org › downloads › maritime-sar-2017

PDF

2 Nov 2017 — This search is similar to a creeping line ahead search, and is used in river estuaries, between islands or where there are sandbanks. The length.
This is a long pdf , 108 pages

 

[Allabouttrial]

Could the police not send someone into the river at the point where NB last was, dressed in what NB was wearing and see what happens? Whether they’re pulled under etc?

Aside from it being a safety concern, the conditions would have to be the same as that day. Assuming she did go in then maybe she got caught on something that pulled her under or as she fell banged her head and knocked herself unconscious. Way too many variables to re-enact.

 

[YaYa_521]

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[bringmeacupoft]

Is there any information regarding the conference call she was on? Was she muted and camera off for the duration/from the start? Or was she interrupted by someone or Willow and then that prompted her to mute and camera off?

 

[kittythehare]

<modsnip - quoted post removed>
Do bicycles use the path or mopeds do you know, Jade?
Motorbikes or scramblers?

 

[Inspector Evans]

<modsnip - quoted post removed>

Would it be impossible for expert diver teams not to spot it after 3-4 days if lodged?

I do fear it might be a case of she was swept out pretty quickly and far away from the area given the Fleetwood mention in one of the articles today but again no idea how possible that could've happened at 9.15am in the morning.

 

[pineapple23]

Just a consideration to anyone who had not thought of it. But the water searches; diving, etc.. aren't just for a body. They will be looking for items of clothing, her wellies, any other belongings she may have had with her, I can't think if any witness said she had a bag or anything else with her.

Good point. I don't remember anything about a bag but I skimmed through a lot.

 

[Officer Dibble]

Willow may be key in my mind.

Agitated and circling the same location suggests a river accident.

I know my collie, and if I fell in that would her behaviour. She’d not jump in, she’d be immediately agitated and she’d not leave the location.

If I’d been abducted or attacked, she’d pester the attacker, and definitely move with the situation.

Williw’s behaviour suggests the location is important, not a third party.

It appears to me that you cannot escape that area without being able to open the heavy metal kissing gate. See video this evening of the walk to the bench. I think the dog was stuck there. Perhaps? JMO