Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #2

[Casseus]

Just for reference it took 7 long weeks for poor Libbey squires to turn up, sadly I believe NB has slipped into the river and this is likely an accident.

Dog was near the waters edge , she put phone down and went to call it away and tragically slipped in.

Just a theory and a guess as to what's happened here.

I don’t remember the Libbey Squires case at all sadly, Was it given as much media attention as NB’s would you say? Was the alert to the public for a missing person made as rapidly as NB? I am trying to understand why this horrible incident has gotten so big and has founds itself being talked about nationally when realistically people go missing each week under similar circumstances yet it’s rarely as well documented as this? When someone is missing due to foul play yes it’s a big story but by all accounts that’s not the case here?

 

[annpats]

So many questions:
- Surely there would be feet indents on the terrain around the bench
- There are no reports of Willow being wet from jumping in the river, this is a very key detail
- Was the phone on the bench or the floor? Bench suggests it's been left there, floor suggests running away with haste
- The river wasn't that deep at the time, it wouldn't take this long to have found an item of clothing
- The house; this raises the most alarm bells to me, I read in the Mirror that the owner of the house was inside, although the house is empty. Strange that the owner 'happened to be there'

Praying for NB and hoping this isn't sinister

Yes, yes and yes to all the points you've raised.

Exactly all my thoughts too.

 

[BDL1960]

Although the most likely scenario is that poor Nicola has fallen into the river I am concerned that the scene of a potential crime has not been protected. If LancsPol are keeping 'all options open' then an abduction is the next most likely and should be within their 'what if' options. It has been galling to see everyone traipsing around the bench today destroying any forensic evidence. They may live to regret this decision.

 

[annpats]

- The house; this raises the most alarm bells to me, I read in the Mirror that the owner of the house was inside, although the house is empty. Strange that the owner 'happened to be there'I

Yes, it is a bit of a coincidence. It could just be that, of course, but I would like the police to question him a little bit more as to how often he goes to this empt abandoned house, what he goes there for and what time did he arrive on that particular morning..
Also, where does he ive now?

 

[annpats]

. It has been galling to see everyone traipsing around the bench today destroying any forensic evidence. They may live to regret this decision.

I think any evidence on the river banks (footprints, marks in the dirt etc.) were long gone before the police even turned up.T
he dog was running loose, the woman witness was there too, and then Nicola's husband tuned up as well.

i would hope any forensic teams may be able to look beyond that though.

However, the police did say there has been no evidence of a crime, so from that, I'm guessing nothing suspicious was found indicating a struggle or a fall etc.

 

[Lucy6226]

Although the most likely scenario is that poor Nicola has fallen into the river I am concerned that the scene of a potential crime has not been protected. If LancsPol are keeping 'all options open' then an abduction is the next most likely and should be within their 'what if' options. It has been galling to see everyone traipsing around the bench today destroying any forensic evidence. They may live to regret this decision.

They may already know she didn't make it to the bench. There's a lot they could be holding back from the public IMO.

 

[Coach]

Yes, it is a bit of a coincidence. It could just be that, of course, but I would like the police to question him a little bit more as to how often he goes to this empt abandoned house, what he goes there for and what time did he arrive on that particular morning..
Also, where does he ive now?

The house could be in the process of being renovated - empty could just mean that no one is currently living in it.

 

[Telltale]

Yes, it's possible, but the river is shallow and and on a sloping bank, so I can't see her falling in (or being pushed) and drowning. The water searchers were standing up in it.

Also the dog was still there.

If you are willing to to to the trouble of shoving a woman into a river to abduct her dog in broad daylight, you'd think you would take the dog.



I have still not seen a definite answer on quite where that 09:15 sighting was, it would be great if they stuck a pin in a map since I've seen it suggested to be several places which have wildly different implications.

On her Starva data, she appeared to always start her normal morning walks by the river/past that bench between 08:45-09:03ish - 09:15 would have been later than any of her recorded walks at least, it would be enough time to get to the bench and come back though.


So I am wondering, was she seen headed towards the park/river with the dog, or away from the park with( or without) the dog? If it was walking away from the park without her dog, it might explain why the police are so happy to say this was not a case of accidental drowning or abduction/foul play.

 

[Lincolnshirelad]

I think any evidence on the river banks (footprints, marks in the dirt etc.) were long gone before the police even turned up.T
he dog was running loose, the woman witness was there too, and then Nicola's husband tuned up as well.

i would hope any forensic teams may be able to look beyond that though.

However, the police did say there has been no evidence of a crime, so from that, I'm guessing nothing suspicious was found indicating a struggle or a fall etc.

If there was its been contaminated now. Was shocked to see how open the area is to the public - on the news videos members of public with their dogs sat on the bench and going close to the edge to look in. Foot prints all over, its sad to see even though they don't have an outcome the area hasnt been preserved.

 

[BDL1960]

I don't get the sense they are holding much back. They don't usually rule out the possibility of a third party so quickly if they know more than they're letting on. I think they are trying to walk a tightrope here of maximising publicity without causing widespread anxiety. I suspect they would have expected to have found her by now. The massive media coverage will now be putting them under a great deal of pressure.

 

[Tortoise]

I don't think so personally. The water is only about 1 metre deep. No current or flow.
Plus if she did fall in, the bank is sloping, it's not a straight drop down into to the water, so she'd roll or stumble on the river bank first.

If she did go in, and I think it's unlikely, I think she would be able to scramble up the sloping bank. It's covered in grasses and bracken.... something to hold onto.

Which part of the bank is sloping in the photo? I don't see anything to hold onto, do you?

Is 'no current or flow' fact or a guess?



https://www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk/...skip-mum-entered-its-fifth-day-4008800?page=3

 

[BDL1960]

If there was its been contaminated now. Was shocked to see how open the area is to the public - on the news videos members of public with their dogs sat on the bench and going close to the edge to look in. Foot prints all over, its sad to see even though they don't have an outcome the area hasnt been preserved.

Agreed. Given the unusual circumstances and the absence of any immediate explanation, they should have cordoned off this area. DNA/ Fingerprints on the phone, harness etc. Fibres on the bench etc etc. If heaven forbid the poor girl ends up being found in the water strangled, the proverbial will hit the fan. This is scene management 101.

 

[brownbread]

No very true I'd agree, but the dog knows that walk and goes there most days (according to NB partner quoted in MSM), so she wouldn't jump in off the deep end surely. Because if she'd ever tried that before, well if you had a dog who you walked a particular place practically daily and there was an area you knew was dangerous then you and dog would avoid there and an intelligent breed like Willow would remember that, surely. Just moo.

Well if we are to believe reports that the dog was bone dry, it didn’t jump on. But I’m speculating it was possible to dog was fussing around the edge of the water (maybe a bird on the water attracted its attention) enough to prompt NB to go over. But it doesn’t have to be that as I said, there’s various other ways the dog could have been getting into mischief at the waters edge. I think a local report upthread mentioned fishing bait being left by the river being an issue for dog walkers in the area.

If it is true that the harness was found on the bank near the river while the phone was left either on the bench or on the floor near the bench, it seems to me the most likely way those dots join up - NB jumps up and leaves/accidentally drops her phone while taking the harness over to put the dog back on the harness to get it away from whatever mischief it was getting into.

 

[Lincolnshirelad]

Agreed. Given the unusual circumstances and the absence of any immediate explanation, they should have cordoned off this area. DNA/ Fingerprints on the phone, harness etc. Fibres on the bench etc etc. If heaven forbid the poor girl ends up being found in the water strangled, the proverbial will hit the fan. This is scene management 101.

The only thing I can come up with is that a witness has seen her fall in and that's why they are so set they know there's no suspicious circumstances.

Either this or there is a MASSIVE failing of the police here and like you said, if the outcome has a dark circumstance to it they have possibly ruined vital evidence.

 

[brownbread]

I know we’ve been trying to make sense of differing reports of exactly where the harness, phone etc were found, but I’ve just thought that with an agitated dog running around nothing was necessarily where it was left when NB was last there. The phone could have been left on the bench and knocked to the floor by the dog, the harness picked up and carried…so maybe the significance of where it was isn’t that great.

 

[BDL1960]

The only thing I can come up with is that a witness has seen her fall in and that's why they are so set they know there's no suspicious circumstances.

Either this or there is a MASSIVE failing of the police here and like you said, if the outcome has a dark circumstance to it they have possibly ruined vital evidence.

It's possible but they should then have made this information public so that everyone, especially the family, knows we are looking at a tragic accident and nothing suspicious. The inquiry then turns into a body recovery operation. At the moment I don't think they have a clue what has happened but are speculating she's fallen into the river. It's unlikely she has done a Reggie Perrin/ John Stonehouse from what we know but possible. I think foul play is unlikely but would not have ruled it out so early.

 

[pentimento]

Are there small boats on the river? I know that the witnesses likely would have seen a boat, but what if it only traversed a short distance, like just crossing the river and back?

I keep getting stuck on the fact that the dog stayed in that area, suggesting to me that she went in the river somehow, but from what I gather she was able to swim and the conditions are not that treacherous.

 

[CuriousObserver1]

The way the police said they they are not treating it as a potential crime seems really odd…made me first think she may have been known to be suicidal which definitely does not seem the case now, therefore out of interest, what other reason would they not treat it as potentially suspicious unless someone saw something to witness exactly what happened?

I do hope they have searched the house, but where the harness was and the phone seemed to have just been placed on the bench mid-call, and it is deep water, it definitely could be a case that the dog was playing too near the water, she went to harness him and slipped into the river by accident Would explain the dog looking agitated given it would be confused as to why its owner had disappeared.

 

[kittythehare]

I know we’ve been trying to make sense of differing reports of exactly where the harness, phone etc were found, but I’ve just thought that with an agitated dog running around nothing was necessarily where it was left when NB was last there. The phone could have been left on the bench and knocked to the floor by the dog, the harness picked up and carried…so maybe the significance of where it was isn’t that great.

That's what I think too.
They have the phone and the phone will be the teller of any stories that are there to be told.
It's a public place.

 

[Cranky]

If she went into the water I would have thought that the dog would have followed? Springers like water and don't usually need much persuasion to go for a swim. I found this site by googling to see if anyone knew if the dog had been in the water. Something stopped the dog from going into the water and if the dog was tied up say if NB sat down to listen to the meeting and tied the dog to the bench then what did NB see that made her go near enough to the water's edge to fall in? If the dog had been tied up would the lead or the harness still have been attached to the bench even if the dog had managed to escape the harness?

What has occurred to me while I was reading everyone else's questions and replies is the timing of her work meeting via phone. Presumably it started as the dog walk was started at 9 - 9:15 am? Reports say her phone was still connected to the meeting when it was found so presumably her partner unlocked it and found that it was connected. In all the time that elapsed from the start of the meeting to that point did nobody think it strange that NB hadn't made any contribution to the meeting? Did nobody mention her name or ask her a question and think it odd that she hadn't responded?

So much here doesn't seem quite right. By the way my son fell in the lake in our local park when he was 14. He managed to throw his phone up the bank as he fell because he knew he was going in and he knew the phone would be broken if it went in the water with him. I could picture a similar scenario here but possibly only if as has been said by others the dog was struggling to climb out.......but the dog wasn't wet.