Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

[JennieM]

Would it be fair to say that there is no evidence at all of drowning and no evidence at all of abduction or attack?

Correct

 

[Officer Dibble]

Looking at the muddy banks of the river and knowing she was wearing next wellingtons- one misplaced footstep and there will have been no traction. Unfortunately she wasn’t wearing decent wellingtons or walking boots- the grip on the boots she was wearing will have sadly been nill.

I agree Ruthbullock, totally agree re the grip but there were no marks on the ground. So did she roll in or propel through the air? JMO MOO

 

[Dowls90]

Unfortunately I can’t help you with the water temperature but it’ll be pretty much as you say, some degrees colder. However I fully agree with you that it seems a bit surprising how it seems to be assumed that anyone coming into contact with cold water would instantly die or at least get incapacitated. It is certainly (sadly) possible that that happens, that people react with shock and drown. However the overall situation - relatively fit, not very old person, with no known medical issues, very, even extremely familiar with the precise circumstances of the location, no skid marks, no body, no traces whatsoever, and a relatively not so dangerous seeming river- I find it fair to say that it doesn’t seem the 100% conclusive answer.

Nobody has assumed that everyone coming into contact with cold water would instantly die. It is quite a frequent occurrence every year that people do suffer from cold water shock and get into difficulty in the water, even in the summer months. It is a FACT that a lot of young, fit and healthy people die every year from the very thing.

Let's face it, nobody here knows what has happened based on the current information that is public. Even the police can't say what has happened, they have had a very educated and lets face it experienced guess at what the most probable outcome was/is. If they don't have evidence of her leaving the area or that a crime has been committed what are they meant to say? You could argue they have more evidence she is in the water than anything else, based on the location of her belongings, Willow and the fact they are almost certain she didn't leave.

 

[kittythehare]

It has to be within 20ft of a Bluetooth phone with the Fitbit app to sync (if it’s set to automatic syncing). So as soon as NBs phone and watch separated they wouldn’t get much after that distance. Perhaps that’s how they can place Nicola at the bench. IMO.

The Fitbit Community

What is the furthest distance my Fitbit can be from my phone for it to sync? Moderator Edit: Updated Subject for Clarity

community.fitbit.com

Thanks for that clarification.
They would know the exact time the separation occurred?
And it would depend upon the app being switched on?
They are not always are they in an effort to save battery power?

 

[SpursGyal]

Would it be fair to say that there is no evidence at all of drowning and no evidence at all of abduction or attack?

That’s exactly where the police are IMO

 

[daisychain01]

This is interesting, I missed this earlier

""The hope was diminishing today," she told Sky News. "But after the news I've just heard, that torch of hope is shining again and given just a glimmer of hope that somebody knows something, has seen something.""

Source: Nicola Bulley's friends given new hope after 'influx of calls' to police a week after she went missing

Do we know what the glimmer of hope was?

 

[Deleted member 240694]

I presume that her phone screen was unlocked to show the call.

Say NB was abducted, how would the person know that she was muted etc? They'd have been taking a very big chance.

That is what abductor's do - they take chances. It is part of the thrill, excitement.

 

[Officer Dibble]

Last summer I came across a lady and her dog, with the dog in a frantic state in a big pond - an ex brick pit. The dog’s ball had gone in the water and he was desperately trying to retrieve it. The poor dog’s face was covered in mud as the ball seemed to be near the bank.

I couldn’t bear the dog being so distressed, so I offered to jump in and retrieve it. I sound incredibly stupid but I was convinced I’d be safe as it’s very near me and I’ve lived here for over 20 years. I thought it was shallower at the sides and although the bank was a similar distance to the river in this case, I thought I’d be fine.

I jumped in and when my feet hit the bottom it was so slippery, I just slid under the water. I couldn’t get a grip. The ball was under the bank, so I managed to grab that, but had to hand it to the lady as I couldn’t throw it. Trying to get out, with the bottom so slippery and the bank quite high above the water was terrifying. Despite it being summer, the water was very cold and I very quickly became very frightened and panicky. I couldn’t get a grip as the bottom of the pond seemed to disintegrate under me and without a firm footing, I couldn’t begin to pull myself out. I couldn’t get a grip on the bank either and it suddenly looked really high.

The lady was useless and there was no-one else around. God knows how I did, it (though I suspect it was sheer terror), but I managed to get out. There was grass to the edge of the pond, which gave me a bit of texture to grab onto. I’ve never been so scared in my life.

This was in summer and I was wearing shorts and a top, no coat, no boots etc. I took my shoes off before I jumped in. I’m afraid I can well imagine this happening to Nicola and her not being able to get out. She may fallen forward and her face would have been submerged, also she could have been further away from the bank. She was weighed down by her clothing and all alone. It may seem easy for her to get out, but I promise you, it’s extremely difficult. She wouldn’t have long before she was physically unable to move. The fear is overwhelming.

Sorry to ramble, but this has really upset me. Poor Nicola.

You were lucky to get out. Thank you for explaining how difficult a situation you ended up in. It helps us understand. JMO

 

[Lilbitcurious]

It's worth noting that the fitbit needs to be linked to bluetooth to update, however, presuming that it was at the time, the data would sync automatically.

I wonder what the distance is for you to sync? They're pretty waterproof, if you were to try to sync where the phone was found, that would give indication she was near.

So would it be possible f you were to walk along the river edge and the phone would “find” the Fitbit?

 

[San111]

I have a fitbit and it has record of my BPM right up until I take the watch off. You can access this through the app on the phone, the data will 100% be there. This would literally answer everything they have to know.

Same. But depends if auto sync is on and if so when it last synced. It could be very revealing though. If it synced just before something happened then the next sync might have been out of range

 

[Firstsnow4]

Thanks for that clarification.
They would know the exact time the separation occurred?
And it would depend upon the app being switched on?
They are not always are they in an effort to save battery power?

It would depend on whether the app is set to automatic syncing or whether you manually sync it (which I do with mine to save battery). If automatic it would do it periodically (a bit like your emails being automatically being received from a server every 5 mins say). But if it’s set to manual sync the person would have to go into the app and physically sync it. AFAIK.

 

[JennieM]

I don't know if this has already been reported in previous posts, but:

Since then Ms Bulley's distraught family have been clinging to hopes she may still be alive. In the early stages of the investigation they questioned whether it was possible she had been taken, and reportedly even considered if she'd staged her own disappearance.

Nicola Bulley's family find police river theory 'hard to contemplate'

Police expressed concerns that the missing mother-of-two may have fallen in the icy cold water on River Wyre while trying to retrieve her dog Willow's tennis ball.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Cranky]

This is mine showing that I walked on Monday so NB's should show when she stopped walking.

 

[EvaP]

I have multiple Teams calls a week, I never know in advance if I can get away with muting myself so would NB? Even if she knew she'd be muted, how would anyone else?

I am constantly on them and she probably had no time to get home and go on a laptop in order to do a short thirty minute call, hence off camera. It’s etiquette to be muted while the person leading is speaking and you can pop a hands up to speak on reactions if need be. Probably a sales figures call, usual end of the week stuff. Who hasn’t done a personal thing and been on a teams call?! I know I have plenty. Even listened to a two hour webinar and contributed once from my children’s sports day. She did nothing out of the ordinary in my opinion and would have phone out to unmute if need be. Guessing ear buds/AirPods in too.

 

[msmarple99]

Thanks for that clarification.
They would know the exact time the separation occurred?
And it would depend upon the app being switched on?
They are not always are they in an effort to save battery power?

They certainly seemed defo she was wearing it which is interesting as one might not necessarily always wear it

 

[Allabouttrial]

PRESS CONFERENCE

3RD. FEBRUARY

Superintendent - Good afternoon, and thank you for coming. I'm Superintendent Sally Riley, I'm the Operations Manager for Lancaster, Morecambe and Wyre. It's been a week now since Nicola Bulley from Inskip, in the local area, went missing. Her family, particularly her partner, her children, her parents and her sister are in real agony while she remains missing. And I want to pay particular tribute for their patience and dignity and strength at this time.

In the last 7 days since Nicola went missing, a week ago today, the police have done a number of enquiries to try and find Nicola and to bring her home to her family. In particular, the search is focused on the riverbank and the River Wyre, here in St. Michael's. An unprecedented number of search resources have been searching the river and the bank. This includes drone, the helicopter, police divers, sonar equipment, pole cameras, underwater drone and staff wading the shallower parts of the river. We've also had search dogs that are specially trained, in the area, from both the boat and the river bank, and this is included the area where Nicola went missing, but also upstream of where she went missing and the 15 km or so down to the sea. We've been assisted in this by the Coast Guard, by RNLI, by colleagues from other forces and the Lancaster area search and rescue and I want to thank them for their assistance.

Unfortunately, we have not still found Nicola but our search does continue. As well as the river search, we've also undertaken a 1 km physical search of the open ground in a radius from the point where she last went missing. This has included open ground, empty buildings and their gardens, to no avail so far. As well as search officers, we've had a number of uniformed staff in the area, officers and PCSO's receiving community intelligence and offering that visible presence to the local community to answer any questions and to allay any concerns. At the same time, a dedicated team of investigators, who often assist missing people enquiries, has been working on this, tirelessly. They have undertaken extensive house to house enquiries. They've checked numerous CCTV, dashcam and ring doorbell footage. They've traced and now spoken to a number of key witnesses. They have spoken to people in the community who have information about Nicola's lifestyle, her daily walks, and so on. All this has built up a really rich picture of data that's allowed us to have a very tight timeline, some details of which we've already released about Nicola's last whereabouts and what she was doing last Friday morning. I'm just going to take you through some of those.

• 8:43 a.m. - Nicola was seen on the river path, walking towards the iron bridge.
• 8:47 a.m. - She was seen in the lower field with her dog, Willow, and her mobile phone, which was on view.
• 8:53 a.m. - She sent an e-mail to her boss on her phone.
• 9:01 a.m. - She joined a team's work call. All of this was normal behaviour for Nicola. This was not out of the ordinary and nothing different or unusual happened during those calls and e-mails.
• 9:10 a.m. - She was seen in the upper field. The dog was off the lead, again, this was normal. The dog was not in it's harness and the lead wasn't on the dog, which was all part of Nicola's daily routine.
• 9:20 a.m. - Through enquiries we've made, we believe that her phone was on the bench.
• 9:30 a.m. - The team's meeting ended, but Nicola's phone remained dialled in.
• 9:33 a.m. - A witness found Nicola's dog, Willow, running between the gate to the field and the bench where the phone was located. Also found by that witness was the dog harness which was on the grass between the bench and the rivers edge.

Therefore, the time that we are particularly interested in is between 9:10 - the last confirmed sighting and at 9:20, when Nicola's phone was found on the bench... sorry, not found on the bench, Nicola's phone was on the bench believed to be on the bench found at around 9:33. The witness made numerous enquiries to try and find the owner of the phone, not knowing whose phone it was and, indeed, whose dog it was. That lead the witness to meet up with other people, who did recognise the dog as Nicola's and the school to which Nicola's children go was alerted at 10:50, as was her family. This means that we have only a 10 minute window in which we cannot account for Nicola's movements. The enquiry team has undertaken a number, as I said, of dashcam, CCTV and ring doorbell footages. This has allowed us to eliminate any trace, so far, of Nicola having left the riverside, which is really important. So we believe that Nicola was in the riverside area and remained in the riverside area. We remain open to any enquiries that might lead us to question that, but at this time, we understand that she was by the river.

Our main working hypothesis, therefore, is that Nicola has sadly fallen into the river. That there is no third party or criminal involvement and that this is not suspicious, but a tragic case of a missing person. This is particularly important because speculation, otherwise, can be really distressing for the family, and for Nicola's children.

In terms of what we would like from the public - I would like to thank them, particularly Nicola's friends, neighbours and the community of St. Michael's and the wider area who've come out in force to help in the search for Nicola.

I do have an update on the clothing that Nicola was last seen wearing and this is something that the public, who live in the area or who walk their dogs on the river path near to St. Michael's or downstream of St. Michael's towards Morecambe Bay, can look out for. They are:

• An ankle length black quilted gilet jacket.
• A black Engelbert Strauss waist length coat, which was worn underneath the gilet.
• Tight fitting black jeans.
• Long green walking socks tucked into her jeans.
• Ankle length green Next wellies.
• Necklace.
• Pale blue Fitbit.

It's really important that the public pay heed to those very specific clothing descriptions, please, because factual sightings of those items would be very useful to us.

We also appeal for any remaining dashcam footage that may not yet have been submitted to the police, in this enquiry. Particularly, if people have that relating to the Garstang Lane area of St. Michael's. Please can the public continue to report only factual information that they have and not speculation as to what may have happened to Nicola, because this is a distraction to the police enquiry and not helpful for the family. I would also appeal to the public to keep themselves safe in this enquiry. People going out at night in the darkness could fall into the river and face other hazards. Likewise, if they go out in boats on the river please only do so if you've got experience in doing that. We don't want people to be in danger.

Lastly, I'd like to underline the support given to the family. It is, as I've said, an agonising time for them. Nicola has two little girls, a partner, sister and parents, as well as many many friends and neighbours and well wishers in the local community. We are supporting her family with specially trained officers and staff and I'd like to thank the wider community for all the support that they've given during this very difficult enquiry. Thank you. I'm happy to take questions if there are any.

Reporter - Is there any data from the fit bit? With newer fit bit's you can track the location by using the phone.

Superintendent - Yeah. All the telephony and digital enquires are being handled by the enquiry team, so all of that data will be looked at.

Reporter - I know earlier in the week you were searching the river for signs that she'd fallen in. Did you find anything? Is there anything to support that hypothesis?

Superintendent - No, not so far, unfortunately not. That's why I particular appeal around any clothing that maybe matching the description I've given, that could be found, but nothing has been found in the river. I should say that the river is tidal below the Weir, so if you see repeated searches of particular areas of the river, it's not necessarily because we found something of note, it's because the river movement is complex and we are taking advice from academic specialists in water movement around currents and so on.

Reporter - Had she made any contribution on the team's call? Had she spoken or was it just on mute?

Superintendent - Not that I understand, no and, again, this was normal. It was a large team's called. She was one of many people on the call and I wouldn't have expected her to necessarily participate, actively.

Reporter - How was the phone known to be on the bench at 9:20 exactly?

Superintendent - Through telephony enquiries that we've done, relative to the phone itself, rather than through a witness.

Reporter - So it wasn't (inaudible)?

Superintendent - No.

Reporter - Today we can see lots of Nicola's family has been out in force. Has anybody found any information out by holding up pictures of Nicola?

Superintendent - Not that I'm aware of, today. Clearly, the public are very well-intentioned and have given us a lot of information. Quite rightly, they don't know whether it is of particularly use or not and obviously we can judge that, can't we? but, so far, it's taken a lot of effort and diligence to go through all the information that's been provided and we'll continue to do that, right through the weekend and into next week.

Reporter - Earlier today, one of Nicola's friends said that (inaudible) to hope because of the amount of calls the police have had. Can you tell us a bit about how many calls or pieces of information you have from members of the public? Have you got any idea about the number of... ?

Superintendent - I can't give you a number, but I know that there have been a lot of calls today. Clearly, 7 days on is a really good time for people to think back, particularly if they have perhaps a particular work pattern where maybe they might be working on a Friday or not working on a Friday. It's, again, Friday today and that will probably take them back to what they were doing last Friday. Were they driving through St. Michael's at around 9:15? Were they dropping children off? Were they going off to work? What were they doing last Friday that they might always do? That would be helpful for us to know if it's relevant to the enquiry.

Reporter - Can you just explain to me why you're so sure she didn't leave the riverside? Are there no kind of cross county routes? No other route, at all, that could have been taken?

Superintendent - Yes, several of the exits from the riverside area are either locked, or they're covered by CCTV. So we've been able to look at that CCTV and negate Nicola leaving the local area. The areas that are not covered by CCTV is where we've been particularly interested in dashcam footage. So that's Garstang Lane leading to the A586. If we can definitively cover off that 10 minute window, in particular, and a few minutes either side, then we will know definitively that she has not left the area because of the lack of footage or footage showing that she didn't pass by, but we are as sure as we can be that Nicola did not leave the area.

Reporter - So there's nowhere that there were cars parked so she could have been in a car, for example, (inaudible) dashcam?

Superintendent - No, no, no. All the exits to the area that she was, as I say, are either locked, covered by CCTV or Garstang Lane - we're appealing for dashcam footage to cover that gap.

Reporter - Having seen the river it doesn't like like the kind you can fall in by accident does it?

Superintendent - At the point where the bench is located there is quite a steep drop, albeit, not high, it is steep and therefore, whilst I don't want to speculate as to what may have happened, it is our working hypothesis that she's entered the water accidentally and that's why there is no further physical evidence on the field.

Reporter - Can she swim?

Superintendent - She can swim, yes.

Reporter - How deep is it?

Superintendent - It's different depths actually, which is why we've had some staff wading the river and some staff underwater search. But, as they say, the sheer number, actually, an unprecedented amount of technical equipment with the sonars, the pole cameras, the dogs, the surface searches, the underwater search. It is really so very thorough that we have discounted finding anything in that immediate area, underwater.

Reporter - Are there any other factors with Nicola that may have contributed to the situation? Was she ill or was she taking any medication for any underlying medical conditions?

Superintendent - We're not considering... we've clearly considered the whole picture, but that is not relevant at this time, no, not at all.

Reporter - So just to check, the tiny window between 9:10 when she was last seen and 9:20 when the phone (inaudible) on the bench?

Superintendent - Correct. So Nicola was last seen by a witness at 9:10 and the phone was back on the bench at 9:20 or thereabouts yes.

Reporter - (inaudible)

Superintendent - Yeah. All of the timeline details, what the police have been doing everyday, what we're intending to do over the next few days is all relayed to the family so that they're kept updated and are aware.

Reporter - Why would you imagine that she didn't have her phone in her hand or in her pocket when she fell?

Superintendent - The dog was off the lead, this was normal for the dog to runabout and Nicola was on a team's call, which again, it would be normal for her not to necessarily participate in actively and just to have the phone to listen in, effectively.

Reporter - But you normally have it in your hand...

Superintendent - You do, you do, but anything could have happened with the dog, whereby Nicola may have gone, and I don't wish to speculate in that we don't know, but it is possible as the dog was loose and off the lead that there may have been an issue with the dog that led her to go near to the waters edge, she puts the phone down to go and deal with the dog momentarily and Nicola may have fallen in. So that is a possibility.

Reporter - The dog was dry?

Superintendent - The dog was dry, yes.

Reporter - The dog was off it's harness?

Superintendent - Yes.

Reporter - Which is normal?

Superintendent - Yes.

Reporter - Was there any chance the dog itself had come in the river or (inaudible) working theories?

Superintendent - We don't believe the dog was in the river because the dog, we believe, was dry and the witnesses who were part of the timeline, that I've laid out, have not described the dog, for example, swimming in the river or jumping into the river. So we assume the dog didn't get into the river, but we don't know why Nicola may have entered the water, if she did.

Reporter - How long will the missing person enquiry be, the scale it is in terms of search operations?

Superintendent - Well, clearly a 15 km stretch of river is long and, therefore, our partners continue to assist us in that, so there are lots of things that we'll be doing over the weekend in terms of water surface and riverbank searching and our partners will be working with us into next week, but it's too early to say at this stage how long it will be.

Reporter - How confident are you that you can find Nicola?

Superintendent - This is a large rural area with a long stretch of river. All I can say is that we are doing absolutely everything possible. We are working tirelessly long hours with a very large team of both plainclothes and specialist uniformed officers to try and do everything we can to bring Nicola home to her family, but it is a very complex and challenging situation and we hope for a good outcome.

Reporter - The possibilities, as the way you said it, seem like limited, small?

Superintendent - Well, as each day goes on we become very much more concerned for Nicola's safety, but we have the best minds and the best trained officers available to us, as well as a number of very specialist partners, so every potential possible way of improving our chances of finding Nicola are being exploited.
Thank you.

 

[Edinlass]

I have a fitbit and it has record of my BPM right up until I take the watch off. You can access this through the app on the phone, the data will 100% be there. This would literally answer everything they have to know.

But would it still sync the data to a phone that wasn’t on your person, does it have to be in range with the phone as it works on Bluetooth not mobile data?

 

[SpursGyal]

This is interesting, I missed this earlier

""The hope was diminishing today," she told Sky News. "But after the news I've just heard, that torch of hope is shining again and given just a glimmer of hope that somebody knows something, has seen something.""

Source: Nicola Bulley's friends given new hope after 'influx of calls' to police a week after she went missing

Do we know what the glimmer of hope was?

No, during the press conference, the police declined to elaborate on any information received.

 

[Officer Dibble]

Apologies if someone has already mentioned this, but Sky News has just run a very informative interview with a forensic diving/water investigation expert. He says that in his many years of experience, when a dog owner falls into the water, he has never once known a situation where the dog has left the precise spot where its owner went in. I found that interesting.

surely that is if the dog witnessed it. JMO.

 

[Cuko]

Same
I have two cocker spaniels and our next door neighbours have two springers. We care for theirs if they are away. Highly energetic and always have a splash in the water.
I don’t believe that if Nicola fell into the river that the dog wouldn’t get wet. If the dog was bone dry then I can’t believe she entered the river whilst the dog was around.

Also if we lose tennis balls then we don’t retrieve them from river. Tennis balls are not that precious. If it’s gettable the spaniel will retrieve it. Nicola was an experienced dog walker and these situations occur on a daily basis. You don’t suddenly start scrambling down river banks to get a spaniels ball… it’s ridiculous. This theory doesn’t add up. I think the dog was taken to the gate to prevent him from chasing or something.

Completely agree re ball. I’d never risk going into water to retrieve one. WE have others at home, as I suspect many other dog households do.