Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

[Taskforce88]

Some good insight into body recovery from water

Body recovery from water study | College of Policing

Long read: Research into body movement patterns in water to aid recovery

www.college.police.uk

 

[Jubbababy]

It wasn't connected according to this

Search for missing mother Nicola Bulley: Police seal off car park

Officers taped off Skippool Creek car park by the River Wyre in Poulton-le-Fylde, Lancashire.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Ah thank you SarahLou

 

[kittythehare]

Definitely the visions of a coat then a long length gilet over the top… that’s a heavy thing once wet isn’t it. Poor lady unless she had fainted or passed out/collapsed she must have been terrified. Even for a short second or so. Perhaps she did that thing where you feet go from underneath you, she landed hard on her bum/back, was in agony and add to that slipping into the river and the cold taking over. I can almost picture it now this is distressing.

Still surprised no one saw her floating or saw anything in river downstream. Walking, I instinctively look at rivers as it’s quite mesmerising.

Even the senior officer said it was surprising dog had not entered the water.
And confirmed she was dry.
These dogs are water lovers, it's almost impossible to keep them out.
So I don't understand, UNLESS she was off on a chase and didn't witness Nicola falling in.
BUT that does not explain why Nicola went close enough to the bank to fall in..

AND, even if dog was off hunting and returned to find Nicola gone it's likely she would still have sensed Nicola was in the water and entered herself. (based on my personal knowledge of the breed.)

So that and the missing 10 minutes are in my mind other possibilities though I trust that PD and believe every word she said.
I liked their work before the presser but now I'm blown away completely.

 

[PandaMarch]

Did the officer mean they have no CCTV going onto Blackpool Lane or Garstang Road... Big piece of important info ... obviously the officer only mentioned Garstang Lane

no cctv for Garstang but have dash cam for here and are appealing for more

 

[scottishgal]

I went for a walk along the Tweed a few months ago, where I was walking had a quite steep sloping bank, and it just freaked me out, because the path I was walking on was quite narrow, and I feared I might slip in, and didn't fancy it at all, so I turned back.

The main working hypothesis is that she has fallen in the river. It's certainly a reasonable one, but people aren't statistics, and though the probability of that being the case is high, evidence is more important. At some point we will find out, I'd guess. Very sad for her family.

What if no one ever finds out , I am so worried that they will never get even the closure of her being recovered from the river.<modsnip - off topic>

 

[Edinlass]

Do we think we can assume that the gilet described is the one in this photo? Maybe I'm being pedantic, but it's not ankle length, it is knee length. Either way, it's not ideal for swimming in, but it would be great if the reporting/descriptions were more accurate. Also, why don't they release a picture of the specific clothing (if they know)?

 

[Beginnersleuth]

NB was probably getting ready or was in the process of putting the harness and lead back on the dog when something caused her to fall down the embankment and into the river.

This is what I think too.

 

[Edinlass]

If only she had an Apple Watch on, it monitors your heart rate literally every 10 minutes and the data is sent to the health app on your phone. It also has a feature for falling etc. it’s waterproof and so would have stayed on regardless if in water until the battery died. It would have helped piece together this puzzle IF succumbed to the river and quickly.

Hindsight huh.

 

[msmarple99]

Yes seems pretty likely, knee length..... another impt detail

 

[Firstsnow4]

I feel quite deflated after todays press conference - I still had hope that she may have been abducted so at least a chance she may be alive somewhere but now a tragic river accident sounds like the only feasible option. No chance of surviving that. Awful. God know how her family are feeling.

 

[shadwell]

So at the start of this it actually says NB was last seen at 9.20am on the footpath by the river off Garstang road? BBM. Is that an error?

Yes (IMO). Per the press conference the phone’s location on the bench at 9.20am was established technically rather than by a witness.

 

[Themac101]

I went for a walk along the Tweed a few months ago, where I was walking had a quite steep sloping bank, and it just freaked me out, because the path I was walking on was quite narrow, and I feared I might slip in, and didn't fancy it at all, so I turned back.

The main working hypothesis is that she has fallen in the river. It's certainly a reasonable one, but people aren't statistics, and though the probability of that being the case is high, evidence is more important. At some point we will find out, I'd guess. Very sad for her family.

This isn’t anything like the Tweed, it’s worth noting the water levels last week and the actual geography of this river. I waded it chest deep while fishing last summer and the water was higher and flowing faster than it was last Friday.

IMO If she has fallen in, a sequence of freak events have occurred. The only factor for me that would point towards an accident is water temperature. IMO The river isn’t consistently deep or fast enough for a body to flow down, passed the weir, all of the runs which are only a foot and a half deep and the bends which all have a shallow inner section. In flood somebody could easily be swept away and out to sea but the level last Friday at Garstang was close to 0.4 meters.

 

[Themac101]

Oh poor NB. That garment would have made escaping the water virtually impossible. And as you rightly point out - it will make it so, so hard to spot her if she is now completely submerged.

This is so tragic, but that vivid image of her struggling, wearing that impossible item, is heartbreaking.

This is the best theory I’ve heard so far which I could see happening in terms of an accident on such a slow and shallow stretch of river.

 

[heartandsoul]

NB was probably getting ready or was in the process of putting the harness and lead back on the dog when something caused her to fall down the embankment and into the river.

This is a very likely scenario IMO.

 

[Themac101]

Was the water volume sufficient to take a body over the weir do you know?

I don’t think so, but I’m not a scientist and I wouldn’t want to say 100%. If you were asking for my opinion as a lay person I’d say no.

 

[Taskforce88]

This isn’t anything like the Tweed, it’s worth noting the water levels last week and the actual geography of this river. I waded it chest deep while fishing last summer and the water was higher and flowing faster than it was last Friday.

IMO If she has fallen in, a sequence of freak events have occurred. The only factor for me that would point towards an accident is water temperature. IMO The river isn’t consistently deep or fast enough for a body to flow down, passed the weir, all of the runs which are only a foot and a half deep and the bends which all have a shallow inner section. In flood somebody could easily be swept away and out to sea but the level last Friday at Garstang was close to 0.4 meters.

Lots of conflicting stuff about water levels.

So NB would not have been swept past the weir last Friday/Saturday?

 

[I wonder]

People are expressing surprise that the dog didn’t go into the water too, but there’s a fair distance between the bank and the water. Also I think Willow knew this wasn’t a game. If Nicola was knocked unconscious, vanished or distressed in some way, I think it’s very natural for Willow to watch and not know what to do. This would be very confusing, frightening and distressing for the dog.

It may be Willow was not allowed to go in the water, which would also influence the dog’s actions.

 

[martinwatts5]

The phone being on the bench is important because this suggests she left the bench quickly for some reason, the obvious one being to sort the dog out - but the dog was not wet so couldn’t have been in major trouble - and if the dog was involved it is surprising that it would not have gone into the water to try to save Nicola.

 

[Edinlass]

This isn’t anything like the Tweed, it’s worth noting the water levels last week and the actual geography of this river. I waded it chest deep while fishing last summer and the water was higher and flowing faster than it was last Friday.

IMO If she has fallen in, a sequence of freak events have occurred. The only factor for me that would point towards an accident is water temperature. IMO The river isn’t consistently deep or fast enough for a body to flow down, passed the weir, all of the runs which are only a foot and a half deep and the bends which all have a shallow inner section. In flood somebody could easily be swept away and out to sea but the level last Friday at Garstang was close to 0.4 meters.

So it would have had to have been a medical emergency i.e. a heart attack, stroke etc. or rendered unconscious via a hit to the head accidentally or otherwise. Basically had she been fully conscious and aware she would have been able to shout out for help for 15 mins straight or not? I need someone to tell me if she was fully conscious and fell in how long would it take due to the water being cold for her to lose consciousness? OR, was it just so cold she would fall in and be unable to scream/thrash I mean doesn’t fight or flight mode set in.

Weather below last Friday - pleasant (use that lightly) enough day but cold, highs of 6 lows of 2. What temp would the water be?

 

[infinit]

So it would have had to have been a medical emergency i.e. a heart attack, stroke etc. or rendered unconscious via a hit to the head accidentally or otherwise. Basically had she been fully conscious and aware she would have been able to shout out for help for 15 mins straight or not? I need someone to tell me if she was fully conscious and fell in how long would it take due to the water being cold for her to lose consciousness?

Weather below last Friday - pleasant day highs of 6degrees lows of 2 degrees. What temp would the water be?

https://rnli.org/safety/know-the-risks/cold-water-shock#:~:text=The%20sudden%20cooling%20of%20the,water%20directly%20into%20the%20lungs.

The sudden cooling of the skin by cold water also causes an involuntary gasp for breath. Breathing rates can change uncontrollably, sometimes increasing as much as tenfold. All these responses contribute to a feeling of panic, increasing the chance of inhaling water directly into the lungs.

This can all happen very quickly: it only takes half a pint of sea water to enter the lungs for a fully grown man to start drowning. You could die if you don't get medical care immediately.

You can't shout with water in your lungs and would drown quickly.